Provy spent time in his own end....do you think having AMac as a D partner for a chunk of the year had anything to do with that?
Provy was turnover prone.....yet Ekblad had more giveaways.
Ekblad's traditional #'s are identical...if you include PP. Provy had 36 ES points, Ekblad had 27. Not identical.
Similar seasons....yet one is ranked #11, the other HM. That math doesn't add up. Both Provy and Werenski should be higher than Ekblad.
Not going to deny partners anchoring Provorov. But Yandle is one of the most sheltered defenders in the last 10 years for a very good reason. I don't think we need an analytical study to prove how brutal and careless a defenseman Yandle is. This was his first year (under a new coach) who forced fed him defensive zone starts which made double the work for Ekblad. Ask Panthers fans who watched the games who anchored whom.
Provorov had 26 takeaways and 92 giveaways
Ekblad had 40 takeaways and 99 giveaways
Ekblad had the better ratio.
Keith Yandle had 42 and 129 giveaways -- one of the worst ratios in the league among top-pairing dmen
Again, Provorov is slightly more productive as ES. Not going to deny that. But if you read the criteria, the first thing mentioned was award voting.
Ekblad has a Calder, received Norris votes (albeit just a few) in each of the next two seasons, and even got an AS nod (just one) this year.
Provorov was 9th in Calder voting last year (one 5th place vote) and didn't receive a single vote for either the Norris or AS1 or AS2 this year from 153 voters -- and that's including the Philly writers. The fact that he was paired with Gostisbehere -- who received some Norris consideration (11 votes) -- hurt his ranking more than it helped.
Ekblad from Jan 1 on: -3 relCF%, -2 relxGF%, -1.6 relGF%
Provorov from Jan 1 on: +1.6 relCF%, +2.8 relxGF%, +6.2 relGF%
600 of Provorov's 1500 minutes this season came attached to MacDonald and Hagg. MacDonald has long been one of the worst advanced stats performers in hockey; Hagg might be trending in that direction as arguably a bottom 10 performer this season. That creates obstacles. Almost all of those minutes
post-January 1st were with Gostisbehere on the top pair. Ekblad played with Yandle all season long (1300/1450 minutes), so varying partner effect gets muted. Even going by the entire season, Provorov graded out with a +0.27 relxGF% and Ekblad -3.4 relxGF%.
Provorov is also 1 year younger with 2 years less NHL experience. In both his NHL seasons, he was used as a top pair defender. Ekblad was actually sheltered his first couple years in the league; he didn't see the degree of difficulty of Provorov's minutes. He's received more top pair minutes recently, but he hasn't exactly graded out stellar in them either. The idea that Provorov was "far more sheltered" is a stretch given his practically identical Quality of Competition stats (49.9 vs 50 xGF% QoC), which are far from perfect, and a quick look at his common TOI opposition (
Ivan Provorov - Opposition - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick).
The sole stat used to tilt favor towards Ekblad was zone starts......which was NOT ironically used in the context of advanced stats persuading an argument. Anyone with a working knowledge knows how unimportant that is barring opposite extremes, which aren't close to present here. Ekblad fwiw got a hair more o-zone starts/60 than Provorov. Provorov started more shifts on the fly in general. Yes, Ekblad got 6 more d-zone starts/60, but that equates to less than 2 a game. It's reductive to whittle their stats down to <2 defensive face-offs a game to explain away sizable differences in scoring and the like. They saw nearly identical minutes; one simply did better.
I'm not saying Provorov still doesn't have something to prove over a full season in some of the metrics, but they're not underwater either and have trended well. Provorov has also been one of the best entry/exit players in the league in his 2 seasons, to use some more real analytics. And I'm not trying to harangue Ekblad. But using "analytics" (aka face-offs) to prove a point about Ekblad vs. Provorov simply doesn't fly. Here's some more data provided by Ryan Stimson's passing project (minutes tracked were low for Ekblad this year but his career numbers aren't dissimilar either):
Applaud the effort.
For starters (as mentioned above), this was the first season Yandle was both sheltered and he was one of the most (if not THE most) careless defenders in the league. Don't know why you make it out to be some sort of favorable aspect for Ekblad -- Yandle is, was and always will be terrible and the farthest thing from a shot suppressor in his own end.
Also, experience had little to do with the ranking unless it was a situation where a rookie or sophomore carried a team like Boeser or Keller. Provorov most certainly didn't carry the Flyers, who had a near Hart finalist (Giroux), a Selke finalist (Couturier), a top-15 scorer (Voracek) and a top-10 Norris defenseman (Gostisbehere) surrounding him. Ekblad had Barkov as the lone award-worthy player, plus he played more than half the season with a brutal backup goalie behind him. These all factored in the ranking, specifically why Provorov was omitted literally by one place.
Additionally, 61 percent of Provorov's points (25 of 41) involved one of Giroux, Voracek and Couturier -- who combined for 263 points. Conversely, 50 percent of Ekblad's points (19 of 19) involved Barkov, Huberdeau and Trochek -- 222 points. I am making the argument that Ekblad on Philly outproduces Provorov on Florida. That is, unless you want to make the argument that Giroux, Voracek and Couturier had elite season because of Provorov.
I never said Provorov is sheltered overall -- he most certainly wasn't. But in comparison to Ekblad, he was. Like I said, both had it rough. Ekblad had it rougher, and a full season with Yandle as his partner supports that. The graph you posted shouldn't be included unless it encompasses an entire season for both players, or the last two years combined.
1478 mins compared to 275 mins is either an incomplete study or totally cherrypicked. I fully acknowledge that Provorov is the superior puck mover, while Ekblad's game does not rely as much on individual rushes and zone entries. Again, it's a situation where being paired with a sloppy puck rusher like Yandle didn't stop Yandle from rushing the puck and leaving Ekblad in an onlooker's role.
I think people are overrating Provorov's season more than I'm overrating Ekblad's.