The Draft Analyst: 2019 Draft Top 100 (November)

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Make the pick
Sep 15, 2008
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I agree on Turcotte, who was No. 3 in August but is now hurt. Don't sleep on Zegras. He's proven to drive that line with Hughes almost as much as Hughes does, and last season carried the NTDP when the big names were at the U18 worlds.

I'll definitely be paying more attention to him from here on out.
 

Wooren

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May 17, 2015
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The highest I would put Strondala is somewhere in the 4th round and even then I would be hesitant. Playing in the overlooked 2nd Czech league, while being 5'7"? I don't think he will make the WJC team either, which he would desperately need to, to get noticed.

I agree on Teply. So underrated.
 
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Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
The highest I would put Strondala is somewhere in the 4th round and even then I would be hesitant. Playing in the overlooked 2nd Czech league, while being 5'7"? I don't think he will make the WJC team either, which he would desperately need to, to get noticed.

I agree on Teply. So underrated.

He won't go in the first round, but I don't rank based on where they end up on Draft Day.

Strondala is the dominant teenager in the Chance Liga and he actually plays an inside, North American style beyond the obvious puck skills, vision and speed. Look at what Plasek is doing. If scouts aren't noticing him after two years , chances are they overlook Strondala as well.

It'll be funny in four or five years when teams are trying to sign him as a UFA. I'm suggesting they draft him now to avoid the hassle.
 

landy92mack29

Registered User
May 5, 2014
27,585
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Takes a lot of effort to put a list together of all the leagues but it's pretty clear you don't know the WHL all that well imo. Korczak is a definite 1st round talent and should be top 20, Lassi Thomson shoots right(ranking is about right though), Sasha Mutala is a bordeline 1st/early 2nd, same goes for Dillon Hamaliuk. Then don't have Jake Lee, Nolan Maier, Logan Barlage, Taylor Gauthier, Reece Newkirk, Mads Sogaard or Ethan Anders among others.
 

Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
Takes a lot of effort to put a list together of all the leagues but it's pretty clear you don't know the WHL all that well imo. Korczak is a definite 1st round talent and should be top 20, Lassi Thomson shoots right(ranking is about right though), Sasha Mutala is a bordeline 1st/early 2nd, same goes for Dillon Hamaliuk. Then don't have Jake Lee, Nolan Maier, Logan Barlage, Taylor Gauthier, Reece Newkirk, Mads Sogaard or Ethan Anders among others.

If I had a nickel for every time someone feels the league they predominantly watch gets shafted in draft rankings, I could buy all of you stream packages for each of the 20+ leagues I try to cover.

It’s a deep draft. Nuts get cut.
 

kroypuck

Registered User
Mar 23, 2018
360
280
Curious as to why York is so low? Playing at a PPG pace, seems to have improved on some of his defensive zone play. To see him at 24 and Helleson and Vlasic right below him is a bit strange to me. IMO he is a much better prospect than the both of them.
 

Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
Do you feel Byram has a good shot of being a #1 Dman?

Absolutely. He was Vancouver's de facto No. 1 last year and the clear cut No. 1 this year. He's old school and I think any coach will have no problem matching him u against anyone at any time. He's not as dynamic as the top tier kids from last year but he'll probably put up a fair amount of points from his smarts alone.
 

Daximus

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Oct 11, 2014
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Absolutely. He was Vancouver's de facto No. 1 last year and the clear cut No. 1 this year. He's old school and I think any coach will have no problem matching him u against anyone at any time. He's not as dynamic as the top tier kids from last year but he'll probably put up a fair amount of points from his smarts alone.

Byram is a slick all around dmen but I can't get behind the Pronger comparison. Byram has a mean streak but Pronger is about the meanest dman that has existed in the past 20 years. Stevens was mean but he wasn't particularly beastly. He'd just truck through you face with his elbow when your head was down. Pronger just manhandled everyone. Byram has no where near that ability.
 

Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
Byram is a slick all around dmen but I can't get behind the Pronger comparison. Byram has a mean streak but Pronger is about the meanest dman that has existed in the past 20 years. Stevens was mean but he wasn't particularly beastly. He'd just truck through you face with his elbow when your head was down. Pronger just manhandled everyone. Byram has no where near that ability.

Byram is 6'1/194. Pronger started his draft season at almost 180 pounds but was 6'5!

I'm comparing draft year Byram to draft year Pronger, not 2000 Pronger to 2018 Byram. Pronger in 1993 or 1995 wasn't manhandling much, as he had issues putting on weight. Strength was a drawback prior to his St. Louis days, and there were no reservations when Rutherford traded him for Shanahan. Both fans and FO were disappointed in his play, as they expected some physical force. He was getting tossed around a lot.

Besides, not many teenage defensemen nowadays play with an attitude and are abrasive adn toe that line. Byram in five years will be around 6'2/210 as the league shrinks.
 

Daximus

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Byram is 6'1/194. Pronger started his draft season at almost 180 pounds but was 6'5!

I'm comparing draft year Byram to draft year Pronger, not 2000 Pronger to 2018 Byram. Pronger in 1993 or 1995 wasn't manhandling much, as he had issues putting on weight. Strength was a drawback prior to his St. Louis days, and there were no reservations when Rutherford traded him for Shanahan. Both fans and FO were disappointed in his play, as they expected some physical force. He was getting tossed around a lot.

Besides, not many teenage defensemen nowadays play with an attitude and are abrasive adn toe that line. Byram in five years will be around 6'2/210 as the league shrinks.


It was never about Prongers size it was about how little respect he had for anyone on the ice.

Even in his Junior days he was a vicious SOB. Byram does not have anywhere close to the malicious intent Pronger had. Byram plays with an edge but we are talking about a guy who even at 6'5 180 did not give a flying rats ass about your safety. Once Pronger had strength he was unstoppable. Byram will never have the strength even a 20 year old Pronger had. His rookie season he had 113 PIM and I promise you they weren't all tripping minors. Pronger wasn't traded because he lacked strength he was traded because his defensive game was weak and his conditioning in late game was bad and he played with TOO much of an edge that got his team in trouble. The drunk driving charge was a major hit on his maturity as well. It had nothing to do with him not being strong enough.
 

Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
It was never about Prongers size it was about how little respect he had for anyone on the ice.

Even in his Junior days he was a vicious SOB. Byram does not have anywhere close to the malicious intent Pronger had. Byram plays with an edge but we are talking about a guy who even at 6'5 180 did not give a flying rats ass about your safety. Once Pronger had strength he was unstoppable. Byram will never have the strength even a 20 year old Pronger had. His rookie season he had 113 PIM and I promise you they weren't all tripping minors. Pronger wasn't traded because he lacked strength he was traded because his defensive game was weak and his conditioning in late game was bad and he played with TOO much of an edge that got his team in trouble. The drunk driving charge was a major hit on his maturity as well. It had nothing to do with him not being strong enough.


I dont think you’re getting what I’m saying. Im putting Byram in the context of the way the game is played and perceived today. The perception is even as a teen, Byram is an annoying, strong, physical, talkative, abrasive player, which makes him a rarity in today’s era. In 1993, each team had a whole line and a defense pair who jabbed, kicked, gouged, slashed and bloodied.

Heck, Pronger wasn’t even close to being the dirtiest player on Peterborough, let alone in the OHL or his own draft class. McCabe, Witt, Pedersen, Sorochan, Gratton, Deadmarsh, Bertuzzi. Larry Courville’s nickname was “Hacksaw” lol

Besides I never said he was going to be Chris Pronger or was a carbon copy. People take comparisons too literally. He plays a similar style — physical, responsible, minute-eating, leadership, aggressive and annoying/abrasive. Pronger’s thuggery was commonplace in 1993 and in modern-day terms is akin to Byram’s post-whistle mugging, borderline hits and cross checks.

I’ll bet the farm if Byram was allowed to get away in 2019 with what Pronger did in 1993, he’d do it.

Plus, I never said he was traded only for not being strong. Please.
 
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LoveHateLeafs

Registered User
Jul 7, 2009
690
327
Thanks for the list. I always appreciate these things. A few questions:

1) Given Arthur Kaliyev's torrid goal-scoring pace this year (and excellent goal production last season), why do you think he's ranked as low as he is in many rankings? You have him at 22, and a recent Dobberprospects ranking has him at 17. He has good size, and you describe him as a"high-volume" shooter. A scorer like Owen Tippett went 10th overall a couple of years ago in what so far appears to be a very good draft. Is there something in particular about Kaliyev's game that you don't think will translate to the NHL?

2) How would you describe Patrik Puistola's playing style? My only experience with him is seeing his games in last year's World Under 17's, which led me to question his hockey sense. Since then, I've seen the odd highlight, but nothing that could give me a handle on what sort of game he plays or if my impression of him from last year was wrong.

3)Ville Heinola's position relative to the other Finns seems low to me(and again, this is something I've seen in multiple rankings so this isn't a question/criticism directed only at you), at least based on the stat watching and what reports I get on here, which are sparse but generally good. You have him at 93, which is below, or very close to, the following

Forwards:
57-Konsta Hirvonen
63-Henri Nikkanen
76-Aku Raty
91- Matias Mantykivi
98-Mikko Petman


D-Men:
72-Iivari Rasanen
80-Kim Nousiainen
95-Martin Hugo Has
101-Kalle Loponen

While Heinola's counting numbers don't make him the next Miro Heiskanen, as a defenceman, he's averaged a 17:07 minutes per night in 14 Liiga games while scoring two assists and being on the ice for four even-strength goals against. Of the players listed above, just two have played any Liiga games. Nikkanen played 9 before getting sent to the Mestis and Petman has played 8, scoring 1 goal. Keep in mind that both these players are forwards and Petman plays for the same team Heinola does (Lukko Rauma), while Nikkanen plays for Jukurit, which is below them in the standings.

While Heinola has spent most of his time in the Liiga, he's also a point-per-game in 9 games in the Nuorten SM-Liiga, which is equal to or greater than the Nuorten SM-Liiga scoring rates of all of the above players, including forwards, by a lot in most cases. Heinola certainly isn't big at 5'11" and 176 lbs, but a lot of small d-men are getting drafted early and having NHL success now. Besides, only two of the above players are significantly taller than Heinola (Nikkanen is 6'2", Has 6'4"), while Rasanen and Petman have 20lbs on him, so I don't see size as something that holds Heinola back relative to his countrymen. Finally, Heinola was just chosen for the upcoming 4-Nations U20 tournament in the Czech Republic. Other than him, Kakko, Honka, and Kokkonen were the only draft-eligible players selected for Team Finland(along with Anton Lundell, who's 2020-eligible).

In short, I'm not really sure where Heinola should slot into the overall picture(late 2nd round maybe?), but when ranking the Finns(by which I mean the draft-eligible players playing in Finland), I would have to think that at this point, he's made a good case to be the best Finn not named Kakko, Honka, or Kokkonen, and put significant distance between him and the rest of the Finns, except maybe Nikkanen.

Disclaimer: I am not Ville Heinola, his parent or agent.
 

UNITEDSTATESOFHOCKEY

Registered User
Jan 5, 2018
360
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Interesting List. You seem a lot higher on Nussbaumer than most other draft experts. You have even rated him over 20 spot higher than Cajkovic, who has similar numbers and plays for a team thats about as bad as Shawinigan this year. I have been following this guy since last year but can't really get a good read on him. I feel with his great vision and accurate shot he should be able to generate more offense than he does. It just seems to me that he can't access those tools consistently enough. Every know and then he has a great game where he looks like a top prospect, just to follow it up with three games where he is more ore less invisible offensively. I know Shawinigan is one of the worst teams in the CHL this right now and this affects his stats, but his lack of consistency on offence still worries me.

Do you think he has a possible future as a top 6 center (or winger) in the NHL, despite those question marks?

I'd pump the breaks on calling this guy a draft expert.... Hard to know a ton about players when you just watch video... Its a draft Blog!
 

VictorLustig

Registered User
Feb 8, 2012
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Höglander at 14 is way too high. All flash, no substance. Looks out of place at higher levels where the game is more structured.
 

nbwingsfan

Registered User
Dec 13, 2009
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I have a hard time seeing Pelletier falling out of the 1st rd. Guy will likely end around 90pts by the end of the year.
 

Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
Höglander at 14 is way too high. All flash, no substance. Looks out of place at higher levels where the game is more structured.

Hoglander all flash no substance? One of the hardest-working forwards in the draft class. He's played much better of late, his ice time has increased and Rogle's winning after an awful start.

I have a hard time seeing Pelletier falling out of the 1st rd. Guy will likely end around 90pts by the end of the year.

He's a riser, no doubt. There are a few guys in my first I'm extended the leash for until they get into midseason form, with Nussbaumer being one of them. Pelletier has had the better season and has better puck skills but still need to give Nussbaumer a chance.
 

Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
Thanks for the list. I always appreciate these things. A few questions:

1) Given Arthur Kaliyev's torrid goal-scoring pace this year (and excellent goal production last season), why do you think he's ranked as low as he is in many rankings? You have him at 22, and a recent Dobberprospects ranking has him at 17. He has good size, and you describe him as a"high-volume" shooter. A scorer like Owen Tippett went 10th overall a couple of years ago in what so far appears to be a very good draft. Is there something in particular about Kaliyev's game that you don't think will translate to the NHL?

2) How would you describe Patrik Puistola's playing style? My only experience with him is seeing his games in last year's World Under 17's, which led me to question his hockey sense. Since then, I've seen the odd highlight, but nothing that could give me a handle on what sort of game he plays or if my impression of him from last year was wrong.

3)Ville Heinola's position relative to the other Finns seems low to me(and again, this is something I've seen in multiple rankings so this isn't a question/criticism directed only at you), at least based on the stat watching and what reports I get on here, which are sparse but generally good. You have him at 93, which is below, or very close to, the following

Forwards:
57-Konsta Hirvonen
63-Henri Nikkanen
76-Aku Raty
91- Matias Mantykivi
98-Mikko Petman


D-Men:
72-Iivari Rasanen
80-Kim Nousiainen
95-Martin Hugo Has
101-Kalle Loponen

While Heinola's counting numbers don't make him the next Miro Heiskanen, as a defenceman, he's averaged a 17:07 minutes per night in 14 Liiga games while scoring two assists and being on the ice for four even-strength goals against. Of the players listed above, just two have played any Liiga games. Nikkanen played 9 before getting sent to the Mestis and Petman has played 8, scoring 1 goal. Keep in mind that both these players are forwards and Petman plays for the same team Heinola does (Lukko Rauma), while Nikkanen plays for Jukurit, which is below them in the standings.

While Heinola has spent most of his time in the Liiga, he's also a point-per-game in 9 games in the Nuorten SM-Liiga, which is equal to or greater than the Nuorten SM-Liiga scoring rates of all of the above players, including forwards, by a lot in most cases. Heinola certainly isn't big at 5'11" and 176 lbs, but a lot of small d-men are getting drafted early and having NHL success now. Besides, only two of the above players are significantly taller than Heinola (Nikkanen is 6'2", Has 6'4"), while Rasanen and Petman have 20lbs on him, so I don't see size as something that holds Heinola back relative to his countrymen. Finally, Heinola was just chosen for the upcoming 4-Nations U20 tournament in the Czech Republic. Other than him, Kakko, Honka, and Kokkonen were the only draft-eligible players selected for Team Finland(along with Anton Lundell, who's 2020-eligible).

In short, I'm not really sure where Heinola should slot into the overall picture(late 2nd round maybe?), but when ranking the Finns(by which I mean the draft-eligible players playing in Finland), I would have to think that at this point, he's made a good case to be the best Finn not named Kakko, Honka, or Kokkonen, and put significant distance between him and the rest of the Finns, except maybe Nikkanen.

Disclaimer: I am not Ville Heinola, his parent or agent.


1. Kaliyev doesn't do much other than goal scoring (although he's steadily improved in other areas) and stays more on the outside than he should. Needs to play more physical and battle for puck possession rather than wait for the puck via someone else's hard work. I'd like to see him create his own chances more often. Too many times he's invisible then gets a scoring chance or two, and it's only because of Saigeon.

2. Strong two-way forward who can carry a line from the wing. Hockey sense is fine and makes smart plays under pressure. or doesn't rush decisions. More of a shooter than a playmaker but an accurate passer off the rush. Like him a lot.

3. Heinola shot up my rankings from the 200s and his size doesn't concern me the least bit. Lots of season left and I'd like to see him round his game out and become more physical and battle -- win or lose -- in front of the net. There's a little voice in my head telling me he could be on a top-pairing one day but like i said, the season just started and I need to watch him more.
 
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MS

1%er
Mar 18, 2002
53,362
83,431
Vancouver, BC
Comparing Bowen Byram to Chris Pronger might be the most bizarre comparison I've ever seen. The most different players you could possibly imagine.

Byram has an extremely similar skillset/temperament to Matt Dumba and the same sort of upside.
 

Seventyx7

Carter Enthusiast
Mar 3, 2004
1,485
326
Norcal
Have to agree that Dachs speed could be an issue. Hes often the last guy in on the rush and the last guy back when hes in deep. His vision, puckhandling, puck protection and IQ are top notch. Drives the net with zero fear and hes showing he actually has a great shot. The one thing that can be taught is skating though. Tough to make a guy smarter at this age, much easier to get a guy to skate better.
How does Dach compare to Vilardi?
 

Babula

Registered User
May 31, 2012
1,746
70
He won't go in the first round, but I don't rank based on where they end up on Draft Day.

Strondala is the dominant teenager in the Chance Liga and he actually plays an inside, North American style beyond the obvious puck skills, vision and speed. Look at what Plasek is doing. If scouts aren't noticing him after two years , chances are they overlook Strondala as well.

It'll be funny in four or five years when teams are trying to sign him as a UFA. I'm suggesting they draft him now to avoid the hassle.
 

Babula

Registered User
May 31, 2012
1,746
70
he is on a good team. Kometa Brno jr. or B - team whatewer. he looks good, that is all. that dominant thing is a bit oversized... i believe

Hugo Has or Teply are over him imo.
 
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VictorLustig

Registered User
Feb 8, 2012
8,846
2,883
Hoglander all flash no substance? One of the hardest-working forwards in the draft class. He's played much better of late, his ice time has increased and Rogle's winning after an awful start.

5'9 player who hasn't scored at all the last two seasons. Among the oldest players in the draft as well. I've seen him quite a bit this season and hard work won't be enough to make him a 1st rounder.
 

Tryamkin

Registered User
May 18, 2015
8,256
4,507
Canada
5'9 player who hasn't scored at all the last two seasons. Among the oldest players in the draft as well. I've seen him quite a bit this season and hard work won't be enough to make him a 1st rounder.
He's only played 15 games in the SHL. Not two seasons. He's not in my first round either but let's be a little less critical of the only two 2019 eligble prospects who's played full time in the SHL so far. he's born late December also, not really a big deal.
 

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