The Draft Analyst: 2019 Draft Top 100 (November)

[Steve Kournianos]

The Draft Analyst | 2019 NHL Draft: Top-100 (November)

Here's the link to the SN article that may read better on mobile devices: 2019 NHL Entry Draft Top 31: Is Jack Hughes' position as the projected first-overall pick safe?

I wanted to sneak a quick ranking in before all the tournaments that start this weekend. I'l release the December 500 right before the WJC, and then another one before the February 5 Nations.

Lots of early-season underachievers have messed things up, specifically CHL imports. The NTDP is going to dominate the early rounds regardless of what the stats look like. Seems like there are far more scouts and media at NTDP games this year than in 2016, 2017 or 2018, and for good reason.

I still think Hughes will end up No. 1, but I understand if people sour on him. To me, he's been outstanding and worth the price of admission. Doubtful Podkolzin goes No. 2 because he's adamant about not heading over until he's ready, but to me he's the draft's best all-around player (don't just judge by low VHL stats -- he's been excellent).

And I'm happy for Western Canada getting its mojo back. Last year's draft crop stunk. Looks like the OHL will be on the outside looking in this year.

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[Speyer]

Interesting List. You seem a lot higher on Nussbaumer than most other draft experts. You have even rated him over 20 spot higher than Cajkovic, who has similar numbers and plays for a team thats about as bad as Shawinigan this year. I have been following this guy since last year but can't really get a good read on him. I feel with his great vision and accurate shot he should be able to generate more offense than he does. It just seems to me that he can't access those tools consistently enough. Every know and then he has a great game where he looks like a top prospect, just to follow it up with three games where he is more ore less invisible offensively. I know Shawinigan is one of the worst teams in the CHL this right now and this affects his stats, but his lack of consistency on offence still worries me.

Do you think he has a possible future as a top 6 center (or winger) in the NHL, despite those question marks?

 

[Daximus]

If Dach keeps up his production I can't see him going any lower than 5 at this point.

You also said that the WHL didn't have a player drafted until late in the 2nd in 2018 but both Ty Smith and Alexeyev were drafted in the 1st round.

 

[letsgrowcactus]

Strondala at 18? You have balls, man.
He has definitely been overlooked way too much up to this point... Still, with his (mini-)size, playing in Czech2? He'll need some really strong international showings to go anywhere near that high. (I know you're not projecting draft order here but a guy that tiny in Czech2... frankly it wouldn't completely surprise me if he didn't get drafted at all.)

I like Teply at 36. Too bad that the remanining Czech kids (Lang, Prikryl, Barinka etc.) aren't doing too well after crossing over to the NA this year...

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Interesting List. You seem a lot higher on Nussbaumer than most other draft experts. You have even rated him over 20 spot higher than Cajkovic, who has similar numbers and plays for a team thats about as bad as Shawinigan this year. I have been following this guy since last year but can't really get a good read on him. I feel with his great vision and accurate shot he should be able to generate more offense than he does. It just seems to me that he can't access those tools consistently enough. Every know and then he has a great game where he looks like a top prospect, just to follow it up with three games where he is more ore less invisible offensively. I know Shawinigan is one of the worst teams in the CHL this right now and this affects his stats, but his lack of consistency on offence still worries me.

Do you think he has a possible future as a top 6 center (or winger) in the NHL, despite those question marks?

I was higher on Nussbaumer to start the season so there's still a little bias. I think Nussbaumer can have impactful shifts without necessarily creating chances or getting clean looks. Cajkovic makes his money inside the offensive zone but like you said, goes through occasional disappearing acts and can be a puck hog. My gut tells me Nussbaumer at worst case scenario can still make the NHL as a quality depth player because of his compete level, whereas Cajkovic may infuriate coaches with his nonchalant tendencies. Still early though.

Strondala at 18? You have balls, man.
He has definitely been overlooked way too much up to this point... Still, with his (mini-)size, playing in Czech2? He'll need some really strong international showings to go anywhere near that high. (I know you're not projecting draft order here but a guy that tiny in Czech2... frankly it wouldn't completely surprise me if he didn't get drafted at all.)

I like Teply at 36. Too bad that the remanining Czech kids (Lang, Prikryl, Barinka etc.) aren't doing too well after crossing over to the NA this year...

Strondala left a significant impression on me when he was on the line with Plasek and Lauko at the U18s last year, and my notes are riddled with stuff like "don't sleep on this kid". He's been excellent this season, and I think the size thing isn't much of a thing in the NHL anymore (even though some teams still swear by it). And it's not a case of first-impression bias because I've watched him play over two dozen times.

Teply is extremely underrated and I see him cracking the first round because several ahead of him are bound to fall. He dominates the puck and is always after it when he doesn't have it. Sounds stupid but there are a lot of notable kids who wait for things to come to them rather than the other way around.

If Dach keeps up his production I can't see him going any lower than 5 at this point.

You also said that the WHL didn't have a player drafted until late in the 2nd in 2018 but both Ty Smith and Alexeyev were drafted in the 1st round.

Dach's speed in open ice is an issue. No way I draft a forward in the top five who can't pull away. Defensemen are getting smaller and faster, and although Dach probably protects the puck better than anyone in this draft, he's still pretty slow. Only way I see him going top five is if his quickness and shiftiness in corners convinces teams that he's worth the risk.

Thanks for pointing that out. I meant forwards in the 2018 draft from the Dub.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Right there with you on the Strondala ranking.

Thanks for sharing as always, Steve!

 

[flamebird]

Like the Constantinou ranking. High risk pick with a high reward. I think he's the most 'skilled' defender, and is definitely more skilled than most forwards. Just under a PPG as a 17 year old defenseman in the OHL

 

[letsgrowcactus]

Strondala left a significant impression on me when he was on the line with Plasek and Lauko at the U18s last year, and my notes are riddled with stuff like "don't sleep on this kid". He's been excellent this season, and I think the size thing isn't much of a thing in the NHL anymore (even though some teams still swear by it). And it's not a case of first-impression bias because I've watched him play over two dozen times.

I agree with you, but he wouldn't be the first time a guy in the Czech league (in Czech2 no less) who gets overlooked. And Strondala isn't just undersized as in "178 pretending to be 180" ... at the beginning of the 2018/19 season, he was 168 cm and 67 kg according to the Czech hockey website; 170 cm and 70 kg per eliteprospects. Hopefully he still adds a bit to that but that's barely DeBrincat size and he's the smallest NHLer there (though he's brilliant and opening doors to more short guys with every goal he scores). Howeverl, Strondala's also not playing in the OHL where the scouts watch him produce all year long and can't very well ignore him. I hope he gets noticed... I just wouldn't be entirely surprised if he gets ignored.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Good on you for keeping Hughes at 1. Where he should be.

Podkolzin getting some love.. like it. Wouldn’t be shocked if he ends up being the best player from this draft.

Probably wouldn’t have Krebs above Dach and Cozens.

 

[Daximus]

Dach's speed in open ice is an issue. No way I draft a forward in the top five who can't pull away. Defensemen are getting smaller and faster, and although Dach probably protects the puck better than anyone in this draft, he's still pretty slow. Only way I see him going top five is if his quickness and shiftiness in corners convinces teams that he's worth the risk.

Thanks for pointing that out. I meant forwards in the 2018 draft from the Dub.

Have to agree that Dachs speed could be an issue. Hes often the last guy in on the rush and the last guy back when hes in deep. His vision, puckhandling, puck protection and IQ are top notch. Drives the net with zero fear and hes showing he actually has a great shot. The one thing that can be taught is skating though. Tough to make a guy smarter at this age, much easier to get a guy to skate better.

 

[Daximus]

Good on you for keeping Hughes at 1. Where he should be.

Podkolzin getting some love.. like it. Wouldn’t be shocked if he ends up being the best player from this draft.

Probably wouldn’t have Krebs above Dach and Cozens.

Only knock I have on Podkolzin is he seems like a lone wolf kind of player. Though that could have more to do with the quality of teammates he has. But his speed, puckhandling and shooting is very high end. I'm just not sure if he will be as much of a puck hog at higher levels. Plus hes basically stated he will stay in Russia which will hurt his stock. But could make a team very happy down the line when he does come over.

 

[Bonin21]

Brinkman has fallen out of the list entirely? Playing against college competition is obviously going to result in less of an impact but that needs to be factored in. Youngest player in college hockey this year.

 

[TimeZone]

Well this is definitely an interesting list. Much different than the majority I've seen.

Certainly a lot more American heavy at the top than any list I've seen so far.

 

[Tryamkin]

I do like the Strondala ranking. I remember thinking the same thing when watching him on that line. His production in a weaker Czech league isn’t amazing, but he can do it. Don’t have the balls to put him that high

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Well this is definitely an interesting list. Much different than the majority I've seen.

Certainly a lot more American heavy at the top than any list I've seen so far.

This is an exceptional year for the USNTDP where the individual talent can get obscured a bit by how strong the collective group is. I wouldn't be surprised to see a large number of the team be selected in the top half of the 1st round.

 

[AmericanDream]

Well this is definitely an interesting list. Much different than the majority I've seen.

Certainly a lot more American heavy at the top than any list I've seen so far.

a lot of lists have had minimum 8 US players ranked int heir top 31...it typically only improves throughout the season once the USNDP/USHL kids get more viewings...this is a loaded year for the USHL outside of the USNDP - Donovan, Brink, Pinto, Mastrosimone, etc all looking like legit picks as well...just an insanely deep year for USA Hockey.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Brinkman has fallen out of the list entirely? Playing against college competition is obviously going to result in less of an impact but that needs to be factored in. Youngest player in college hockey this year.

He's just not in the top 100. I'm still kind of impressed with him, just at this point I don't see him as a upper-round kind of prospect. He plays undisciplined and still tries to do too much as a freshman on a veteran defense corps. The size, speed, vision and strength will get him drafted. It's just a matter of tightening things up in the 2nd half for him to get a bump.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

a lot of lists have had minimum 8 US players ranked int heir top 31...it typically only improves throughout the season once the USNDP/USHL kids get more viewings...this is a loaded year for the USHL outside of the USNDP - Donovan, Brink, Pinto, Mastrosimone, etc all looking like legit picks as well...just an insanely deep year for USA Hockey.

Exactly. Two years ago it was Finland. Last year was Sweden (at least for me). This year it's the WHL and USA Hockey. The cuts from the NTDP could form a 2nd NTDP and beat everyone as well. Just one of those years.

 

[57special]

Brinkman has fallen out of the list entirely? Playing against college competition is obviously going to result in less of an impact but that needs to be factored in. Youngest player in college hockey this year.

He needs to show something with the Gophs this year to get some attention. Would love for my team to pick him up in the 3rd/4th round, but i think that's unlikely, unless he gets an injury.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

I agree with you, but he wouldn't be the first time a guy in the Czech league (in Czech2 no less) who gets overlooked. And Strondala isn't just undersized as in "178 pretending to be 180" ... at the beginning of the 2018/19 season, he was 168 cm and 67 kg according to the Czech hockey website; 170 cm and 70 kg per eliteprospects. Hopefully he still adds a bit to that but that's barely DeBrincat size and he's the smallest NHLer there (though he's brilliant and opening doors to more short guys with every goal he scores). Howeverl, Strondala's also not playing in the OHL where the scouts watch him produce all year long and can't very well ignore him. I hope he gets noticed... I just wouldn't be entirely surprised if he gets ignored.

Well they ignored Plasek, who I thought was pretty impressive. So I can see Strondala getting overlooked. Czechs probably need to make a dent at international tournaments to get the recognition their prospects deserve. The 1998s and 1999s won the Hlinka and practically the whole team was drafted.

 

[57special]

He's just not in the top 100. I'm still kind of impressed with him, just at this point I don't see him as a upper-round kind of prospect. He plays undisciplined and still tries to do too much as a freshman on a veteran defense corps. The size, speed, vision and strength will get him drafted. It's just a matter of tightening things up in the 2nd half for him to get a bump.

Actually , I don't see that, but I agree that he has been a non-entity, and not worthy of too high of a ranking at this point. He does have first round tools, I think, but right now I see him trying not to make a mistake out there, rather than playing loose. The entire Gopher team is looking off right now, especially the Dmen. I see a lot of mistakes being made. It's hard to play a sound game when most of the older players on your team are making bonehead moves on every 2nd shift.

There is plenty of season left for him to prove, or disprove, his worth.

 

[Frk It]

Pelletier and Korczak should be much higher, IMO.

Jamieson Rees should be on the list, maybe he was omitted/forgotten because he’s hurt? Had a nice Hlinka and start to the season before he went out.

 

[TimeZone]

This is an exceptional year for the USNTDP where the individual talent can get obscured a bit by how strong the collective group is. I wouldn't be surprised to see a large number of the team be selected in the top half of the 1st round.

Like I said it's certainly interesting, this is the first time I've seen Trevor Zegras ranked so highly in particular. I guess we'll have to see how the year plays out. I still think Turcotte is the next best American available.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Pelletier and Korczak should be much higher, IMO.

Jamieson Rees should be on the list, maybe he was omitted/forgotten because he’s hurt? Had a nice Hlinka and start to the season before he went out.

Both Pelletier and Korczak moved up. Don't see Korczak as first-round talent at this point, but Pelletier is exciting to watch and becoming a more complete player than just a playmaker. Thing is, I like Poulin a bit better from the QMJHL, and had to give bigger bumps to other prospects who floored me.

I didn't forget about Rees. Rees was 105 in my August rankings. He didn't crack the new top 100 because I don't like putting too many injured kids in there until they reach midseason form.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Like I said it's certainly interesting, this is the first time I've seen Trevor Zegras ranked so highly in particular. I guess we'll have to see how the year plays out. I still think Turcotte is the next best American available.

I agree on Turcotte, who was No. 3 in August but is now hurt. Don't sleep on Zegras. He's proven to drive that line with Hughes almost as much as Hughes does, and last season carried the NTDP when the big names were at the U18 worlds.