The Data-Based Drafting Thread (what players would a Potato pick?)

[bossram]

lol...I think it's time to start trusting Judd Brackett dont you think? Give me a break

Since Judd took over, their drafting has been better. Prior to that, The Potato wins by a landslide.

And even if The Potato is worse than the Canucks current scouts, what is the margin? If a team full of handsomely paid scouts is barely beating (at best) some hobbyist project a guy made on his own, it should really question what you're investing your money in and how you're evaluating players.

If I were a Canuck exec, I'd be hiring Melvin ASAP.

 

[absolute garbage]

Interesting. Looks like Isac Lunderström, Melvin's Potato GM's #5 pick in last summer's draft who ended going to Anaheim with pick #23, might make the Ducks roster to start the year.

I believe this would mean that all of Melvin's top 5 guys will start the year in the NHL (Dahlin, Bouchard, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi, Lundeström). Not 100% sure, but these players could actually be the only players to start in the NHL from 2018 draft. Of course it's very unlikely that these players will be the absolute 5 best players from the draft 5 years from now, but in terms of ready to hop into the NHL right after the draft, the Potato seemed to have done a bang on job!

 

[Melvin]

Interesting. Looks like Isac Lunderström, Melvin's Potato GM's #5 pick in last summer's draft who ended going to Anaheim with pick #23, might make the Ducks roster to start the year.

I believe this would mean that all of Melvin's top 5 guys will start the year in the NHL (Dahlin, Bouchard, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi, Lundeström). Not 100% sure, but these players could actually be the only players to start in the NHL from 2018 draft. Of course it's very unlikely that these players will be the absolute 5 best players from the draft 5 years from now, but in terms of ready to hop into the NHL right after the draft, the Potato seemed to have done a bang on job!

It is interesting. Someone had made the comment up thread that the system might be biased towards players with lower ceilings/higher floors who are closer to NHL-ready as opposed to guys with higher ceilings that are more long-term projects. That certainly could be supporting evidence of that.

Filip Hallander, who was also highly ranked and ended up being a 2nd rounder, ended up earning a contract as well, although he is back in Europe to start the season.

 

[absolute garbage]

It is interesting. Someone had made the comment up thread that the system might be biased towards players with lower ceilings/higher floors who are closer to NHL-ready as opposed to guys with higher ceilings that are more long-term projects. That certainly could be supporting evidence of that.

Filip Hallander, who was also highly ranked and ended up being a 2nd rounder, ended up earning a contract as well, although he is back in Europe to start the season.

Yeah. I'm not sure if "lower ceilings/higher floors" is the right way to put it, but certainly it seems to gravitate towards more ready and more polished players early on in the draft. That's not necessarily a bad thing.

Oh and I seemed to forgot Tkachuk. He's probably going to make the Sens roster. So there was someone else outside Potato's top 5.

 

[Melvin]

Just because VMO bumped the thread, here is a pointlessly early top-5 for 2019, based on 0-5 games of data.

Arthur Kaliyev
Ryan Suzuki
Kaapo Kakko
Dylan Cozens
Kirby Dach

 

[Melvin]

I am bumping this thread because we were discussing it in the management thread and it was arguably off-topic.

We were discussing the holes in the system and where it can be improved. I was curious about some players ranked highly who didn't turn out, where we can see the most notable weaknesses where teams can add value.

Here are the top-15 for the 2010-2015 drafts

2010 draft
Mikael Granlund
Taylor Hall
Tyler Seguin
Vladimir Tarasenko
Cam Fowler
Jeff Skinner
Jordan Weal
Greg McKegg
Tyler Toffoli
Justin Shugg
Ryan Spooner
Joey Hishon
Beau Bennett
Brendan Gallagher
Stephen Silas

Thoughts - Shugg was playing with Taylor Hall; teammate-inflating is an easy-to-spot weak spot with the system. McKegg had skating issues.

2011 draft

Ryan Strome
Joel Armia
Sean Couturier
Shane Prince
Jonathan Huberdeau
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Zack Phillips
Ryan Murphy
Matt Puempel
Gabriel Landeskog
Adam Larsson
Sven Baertschi
Nikita Kucherov
Dougie Hamilton
Mark Scheifele

Thoughts - Philips had skating issues. I dunno about Prince.

2012 draft

Tomas Hertl
Nail Yakupov
Mikhail Grigorenko
Cody Ceci
Teuvo Teravainen
Esa Lindell
Pontus Aberg
Artemi Panarin
Filip Forsberg
Radek Faksa
Charles Hudon
Matt Finn
Mathew Dumba
Derrick Pouliot
Dalton Thrower

Thoughts - This was a really weak draft but I have no idea how teams passed on Panarin for so long. Hertl woulda been a better pick than Yak, huh?

2013 draft

Aleksander Barkov
Elias Lindholm
Jonathan Drouin
Alexander Wennberg
Artturi Lehkonen
Nathan MacKinnon
Sean Monahan
Kerby Rychel
Hunter Shinkaruk
Anthony Mantha
Seth Jones
Nic Petan
William Carrier
Max Domi
Rasmus Ristolainen

Thoughts - Carrier only played 34 games so this might be a small sample size fluke.

2014 draft

William Nylander
David Pastrnak
Sam Reinhart
Sam Bennett
Nikolaj Ehlers
Leon Draisaitl
Viktor Arvidsson
Robby Fabbri
Michael Dal Colle
Nikolay Goldobin
Ivan Barbashev
Aaron Ekblad
Anthony DeAngelo
Josh Ho-Sang
Sonny Milano

Thoughts - We actually had a shot at getting the top two in this draft, lol.

2015 draft

Connor McDavid
Jack Eichel
Mitchell Marner
Dylan Strome
Mikko Rantanen
Sebastian Aho
Robin Kovacs
Timo Meier
Roope Hintz
Evgeny Svechnikov
Anthony Beauvillier
Anthony Richard
Ivan Provorov
Rasmus Andersson
Zach Werenski

Thoughts - Kovacs seems to have had some off-ice troubles. I'm not really sure what's up with him. Hintz looks like an intriguing player still.

Soo yeah, those are how some of the drafts ended up shaking out. I am curious to hear any thoughts on systemic biases towards or away from certain players. The ones I know about are:

1) The teammate inflation problem. Junior players who are playing with Taylor Hall or John Tavares or Connor McDavid and have their totals inflated from that. I don't have a good way of dealing with this yet.
2) Skating. It seems clear that certain players put up good totals in juniors but can't skate, and I am not able to identify this currently.

If anyone spots anything else, I would be thrilled to hear it.

BTW Here is an early look at 2019 (obviously will change) :

Kaapo Kakko
Jack Hughes
Arthur Kaliyev
Mikko Kokkonen
Jakob Pelletier
Pavel Dorofeyev
Trevor Zegras
Nathan Légaré
Dylan Cozens
Bobby Brink
Ryan Suzuki
Kirby Dach
Bowen Byram
Peyton Krebs
Connor McMichael

 

[Shattered Dreams]

Does the potato separate playoff points from regular season points? How do you feel about making different bins for draft eligible players i.e. one for international tournaments, playoffs, regular season, etc.? Do you think it has much of an effect on rankings?

 

[Melvin]

Does the potato separate playoff points from regular season points? How do you feel about making different bins for draft eligible players i.e. one for international tournaments, playoffs, regular season, etc.? Do you think it has much of an effect on rankings?

Good question. I don't look at playoff stats at all. Too difficult to make it fair with such different systems in different leagues.

One thing that has really caught my attention this year box score watching jack Hughes though is how much of an impact tournaments can have on the stats that I use. For example Hughes got 16 points in four games at the "five nations tournament" and if you deduct those then suddenly his season numbers look pretty underwhelming.

I need to do a deeper dive on these tournaments and how they affect the stats I'm using. It could be an explanation for underrating or overrating some American prospects.

 

[Melvin]

Does anyone know much about the following players:

Greg McKegg
Joey Hishon
Zack Phillips
Charles Hudon
Matt Finn
Dalton Thrower
Robin Kovacs
Anthony Richard

@MS ? @biturbo19 ?

 

[timw33]

Does anyone know much about the following players:

Greg McKegg
Joey Hishon
Zack Phillips
Charles Hudon
Matt Finn
Dalton Thrower
Robin Kovacs
Anthony Richard

@MS ? @biturbo19 ?

Hishon had his career ended by an elbow to the head in the WHL, that one stood out to me.

 

[Tim Calhoun]

Zack Phillips was being propped up by playing on a line with Huberdeau.

 

[Melvin]

Zack Phillips was being propped up by playing on a line with Huberdeau.

I mean somewhat sure, but he was still drafted in the first round. He clearly wasn't seen as a non-prospect just being propped up by Huberdeau, like Dan Fox or that other guy who played with Tavares.

 

[Tim Calhoun]

I mean somewhat sure, but he was still drafted in the first round. He clearly wasn't seen as a non-prospect just being propped up by Huberdeau, like Dan Fox or that other guy who played with Tavares.

Just because it doesn’t happen every time doesn’t mean that teams occasionally do get fooled by players looking good by playing with stars. LA used a 2nd round pick on 20-year old Dany Roussin after playing with Crosby. Angelo Esposito was seen as a potential first overall pick the year before his draft after playing with Radulov and probably wouldn’t have gone 20th overall without that crazy rookie season in people’s minds.

I’m not saying Phillips was a non prospect but it’s quite probable his point totals would have been considerably lower (say 30 points) and would have been drafted in later rounds.

 

[4Twenty]

I'm wondering if instead of factoring full draft seasons as the main driver of the stats, if you could show upward trajectory that players show throughout their draft seasons. I mean we witness every draft year those players who climb lists like mad and it's generally on the back of increased production or opportunity. A perfect example would be Bo Horvat, his draft year 0.91ppg doesn't pop out at you, but when you dig he put up 16 points in his first 27, then put up 45 in his next 40. I'm just spitballing and wondering if there is a way to account for that. Cheers Melvin, really like your potato.

 

[passive voice]

A guy like Point was #1 in the WHL for U18 in production...at a certain point you can't ignore him producing 2-3x the offense of some of the WHL forwards taken prior to him.

I assume the model incorporates a binomial "Favourite Player Growing Up Was Markus Naslund" variable.

Potato picks for Vancouver -

7 - Evan Bouchard (Quinn Hughes)
37 - Filip Hallander (Jett Woo)
68 - Justin Almeida (Tyler Madden)
130 - Linus Nyman (Toni Utunen)
186 - Nathan Dunkley (Artyom Manukyan)
192 - Kyle Topping (Matthew Thiessen)\

See? Two BC kids, two London Knights, a Swede, and a Finn. The model even understands our neuroses.

 

[Melvin]

I'm wondering if instead of factoring full draft seasons as the main driver of the stats, if you could show upward trajectory that players show throughout their draft seasons. I mean we witness every draft year those players who climb lists like mad and it's generally on the back of increased production or opportunity. A perfect example would be Bo Horvat, his draft year 0.91ppg doesn't pop out at you, but when you dig he put up 16 points in his first 27, then put up 45 in his next 40. I'm just spitballing and wondering if there is a way to account for that. Cheers Melvin, really like your potato.

I've had a similar thought but just haven't gotten around to entering data for draft-1, draft-2 seasons, etc. A lot of this data entry was done manually as I've cobbled together different data from different sources and I've been too lazy to find a way to scrape it automatically so I'm somewhat limited with what I can do at the moment, but it's something I may get around to especially now that I have some more free time.

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

Corey Perry I remember was a player like this. So was Michael Grabner.

 

[Melvin]

For the purposes of this project I compute a "score" for every draft-eligible player. This number doesn't mean anything in and of itself, it's just something I have to do so that I can rank the players. Needless to say, there are plenty of examples where two players are barely separate and there is no meaningful difference between the two.

Today, I wanted to look at the opposite situation, that is, the widest "gaps" in my data-set. I wanted to see where there was the widest separation between best-player statistically and 2nd best player, statistically. Here is where the widest gaps lie from 2006-2017:

draftyear	Best Player	draftpos	2nd Best Player	draftpos	Gap
2017	Elias Pettersson	5	Nick Suzuki	13	1.10
2010	Mikael Granlund	9	Taylor Hall	1	0.61
2009	Victor Hedman	2	John Tavares	1	0.60
2015	Connor McDavid	1	Jack Eichel	2	0.42
2012	Tomas Hertl	17	Nail Yakupov	1	0.33
2014	William Nylander	8	David Pastrnak	25	0.28
2007	Patrick Kane	1	Sam Gagner	6	0.27
2008	Steven Stamkos	1	Zach Bogosian	3	0.26
2013	Aleksander Barkov	2	Elias Lindholm	5	0.21
2006	Nicklas Backstrom	4	Derick Brassard	6	0.08
2011	Ryan Strome	5	Joel Armia	16	0.03
2016	Patrik Laine	2	Auston Matthews	1	0.01

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Now, obviously, this is far from perfect, and it was never designed to be. There are some pretty clear cases where the scouts got it right, as they should, since they are paid a lot of money to do so.

But, that 2017 draft right now is looking to be the biggest scouting fail in the recent history, where the most clear-cut #1 player statistically fell all the way to 5 due to his body type. There is no other example in my data where there was even close to as wide a gap between #1 and #2 statistically where the #1 player fell like that. The 2010 draft saw Granlund fall all the way to 9 but Hall and Seguin were at least closer to him than the 2nd tier in 2017 (where Hischier and Suzuki were esssentially tied.)

 

[MS]

Does anyone know much about the following players:

Greg McKegg
Joey Hishon
Zack Phillips
Charles Hudon
Matt Finn
Dalton Thrower
Robin Kovacs
Anthony Richard

@MS ? @biturbo19 ?

Hishon had massive concussion problems, missed 2 full years of hockey between age 20 and 22, and was never the same player.

Phillips couldn’t skate. Scored a bunch of points next to Hubardeau in his draft year.

Thrower couldn’t skate and scored a ton of PP points in his draft year.

Incidentally, if the potato was signing cheap depth UFAs, it would be all over Thrower’s former junior teammate Darren Dietz. Solid, low-upside defensive defender who didn’t have the skill to stick in the NHL but has mysteriously turned into the best offensive defender in the KHL at age 25.

 

[Melvin]

Hishon had massive concussion problems, missed 2 full years of hockey between age 20 and 22, and was never the same player.

Phillips couldn’t skate. Scored a bunch of points next to Hubardeau in his draft year.

Thrower couldn’t skate and scored a ton of PP points in his draft year.

Incidentally, if the potato was signing cheap depth UFAs, it would be all over Thrower’s former junior teammate Darren Dietz. Solid, low-upside defensive defender who didn’t have the skill to stick in the NHL but has mysteriously turned into the best offensive defender in the KHL at age 25.

Much appreciated.

Helps with my suspicion that a lot of these players who don't make it have skating issues.

I would want to throw so much time and money at skating research. There is so much potential here imo.

 

[Hockeyphysio]

I always wonder why the NHL combine isnt testing these players skating

 

[Melvin]

I always wonder why the NHL combine isnt testing these players skating

Yeah.

There have got to be at least 15 different metrics you can collect to quantify someone's skating ability. Acceleration, first step, pivoting, etc. That is easily where I would want to start, before measuring their VO2 Max or whatever.

 

[RobertKron]

Hishon had his career ended by an elbow to the head in the WHL, that one stood out to me.

 

[jd22]

Really awesome thread Melvin. Thanks again. I'll be staying tuned on this one over the years if you are so kind to keep it updated. Have you received any job offers yet?

 

[Melvin]

Really awesome thread Melvin. Thanks again. I'll be staying tuned on this one over the years if you are so kind to keep it updated. Have you received any job offers yet?

Sorry I missed this. I should have some sort of alert on this thread. Appreciate the feedback. I'll be posting the updated 2019 rankings soon.

Nothing yet!