Player Discussion The Curious Case of Benjamin Hutton (Part II)

[Intangibos]

Biega tries has hard as he can to be an NHL/AHL tweener. Gudbranson is on the same level as him or close to in with far more physical tools. He is either dumb, lazy, or both.

When it's marginal, I'd rather give the spot to the hard worker who gets paid a fraction the other player does.

 

[Intangibos]

Analytical data can be deceiving as some defencemen will give up many harmless shots from the perimeter while never giving up a scoring chance because they’re solid positionally and another defensman will have better shot suppression numbers because they’re chasing perimeter players and taking shots away from the perimeter but will give up quality scoring chances against (leaving slot exposed). Same thing with Corsi for forwards, a guy like jake flying down the wing and letting perimeter shots rip will have better analytical numbers than someone who looks to make a smart play with a higher chance of that play resulting in a goal. You have to take analytical data with a grain of salt. Let’s agree to disagree on Hutton for now and let’s get this game day thread back on track.

Yes, this is why you must use several different types of analysis.

• 1. His shot suppression is statistically very good.

He gives up high quality chances and less perimeter shots!

• 2. If anyone can find that heat map, you'll see that his side of the high percentage areas are also blue while Gudbranson's are red. This suggests he's not giving up a ton of high quality chances as you claim.

Shot suppression isn't everything anyway. Sure he heavily reduces shots on goal but he doesn't contribute anything else!

• 3. GF/GA ratio isn't worse than the other D on the team, when he is on the ice the puck ends up in the other team's zone more often than not. He led the team for a month or two last year in zone exits, and then dropped down to #2 behind Tanev. He's not putting points up but he's facilitating the most important aspect scoring which is actually setting up in the offensive zone.

But Intangibos, points matter and he just doesn't put up the same point totals as other D!

• 4. Hutton 6 points in 62 games, Stetcher 11 points in 68 games(I think he had PP time), Gudbranson put up 5 in 52 games. Pouliot put up 22 in 71 games while being by far the worst defenceman on either team every single game, and getting PP time with the Sedins who put up good PP numbers last year. Del Zotto put up 22 as well with significant PP time. It's not like these guys are putting up 35-40 points while Hutton contributes nothing, the offense from our D is marginal and the guys putting up those marginal points are not good defensively.

But a team without D that can contribute offensively can't score goals, we need to have these 20 point players or else we'll never score!

• 5. The objective of hockey is to score more goals than your opponent. Del Zotto hasn't performed well and Pouliot would need to put up 40 points to make up for how awful he is defensively, and honestly that's only if he gets extremely sheltered matchups. Pouliot does not score at a high enough rate to make up for his defensive ineptitude. +/- is an awful stat but Pouliot was a -22 in sheltered minutes while only putting up 16 more points than Hutton with significant PP time in more games played. Corsi stats do aim to show the ratio of positive to negative gameplay.

So you'll say +/- is a meme and Corsi isn't everything, Virtanen has good stats because he rushes the puck and takes a low percentage shot!

• 6. Hutton is not rushing the puck and getting low percentage shots on goal like Virtanen. His numbers are entirely based on shutting down shots and scoring chances, and moving the puck up the ice with possession. His stats are good enough to suggest that he gets possession of the puck often enough along with his defensive play to make up for his offensive play more than our other D's offensive play make up for their defensive play.

It's his D partner getting the puck to him and defending the slot to make up for his major weaknesses! He's not the only player on the ice, his shots against are low but he needs his D partner to retrieve the puck for him to move it up!

• 7. His partner is Gudbranson, he isn't doing anything useful

Hutton needs to skate better to rush the puck and not get walked by anyone who can skate well, and it would help if he could be more physical. He's made a few good hits but not very many and he's more than capable, but his skating again is probably a factor in this and hopefully his conditioning will help both of these things to some extent. He also needs to be more aggressive offensively, but with the ridiculously short leash he's on I bet making aggressive plays in the offensive zone or rushing the puck is pretty scary as an unsuccessful play will lead to him sitting another 5 games. IMO he has been neutered by the coaching staff who won't tolerate anything less than perfect play from him.

Another important thing to note is that with Hutton out your only left D that can play the PK is Edler. You have Del Zotto and Pouliot as your other LD, neither of which are any better at shutting down the slot, something you claim Hutton can't do, nor do they suppress shots at an equal rate, nor do they clear the zone at an equal rate. If Del Zotto takes a penalty we're stuck with Pouliot playing the PK, if Edler takes a penalty god help us. Then again Hutton didn't even get PK time last year so we could put the elite defensive D Del Zotto out there instead. Ironically the PK is one of the only times Hutton will very rarely need to defend against someone rushing the puck, it seems like a situation he would thrive in.

If I wasn't taking the statistics with a grain of salt Hutton would be a similar player to Tanev. I'm using a variety of statistics to create a number of assumptions and then using the eye test to adjust my analysis of the player. I'm not just saying "Well his Corsi numbers are excellent, this guy is easily a #2". He has major flaws in his game as I've said that the advanced stats don't show, but those major flaws in no way outweigh the other aspects of his game.

Again, I never suggested the stats were perfect or a viable method to completely assess a player. However, they are neutral and don't come with the inherent biases all humans have that is applied to the eye test. The burden of proof as to why the statistics don't apply to Hutton or don't tell the whole story is on you. I've yet to see anyone give any answer to this question. Just "stats aren't everything!" and that's the end of the conversation.

 

[sting101]

good rant.

Hutton was easily our #3 last year until a slump and then press box treatment where he ended as a player unsure of when to be aggressive and when not to.

His preseason was the best of all the LD Edler included.

This is getting as stupid as sitting Boeser for the first 2 games ......let the kid play

 

[LuckyBoeser]

The moment when both Ben Hutton and Erik Karlsson have 7 points each

 

[LuckyDay]

This deserves its own thread or needs to be in a power play thread

Why is Hutton not on our number 1 Power Play unit? Pouliot makes tons of mistakes out there and Hutton is clearly our number one point man. Because he's on the number 2 unit he's given about 30 seconds to waste his talent with a bunch of scrubs who work hard, mean well but can't finish like Horvat and Petterson.

Is Hutton not as good in his own end as Poulliot? Does putting Elias up there cause a liability like any forward would? If that's the case then take EP40 off the point so Hutton can have one of those two slots.

 

[elwin316]

This deserves its own thread or needs to be in a power play thread

Why is Hutton not on our number 1 Power Play unit? Pouliot makes tons of mistakes out there and Hutton is clearly our number one point man. Because he's on the number 2 unit he's given about 30 seconds to waste his talent with a bunch of scrubs who work hard, mean well but can't finish like Horvat and Petterson.

Is Hutton not as good in his own end as Poulliot? Does putting Elias up there cause a liability like any forward would? If that's the case then take EP40 off the point so Hutton can have one of those two slots.

I'm not really a Hutton fan, but I completely agree with your post, hell I'd rather see Stecher over Pouliot. Edler will eventually return to that role, but in the interim I'd like to see Hutton too.

 

[alternate]

Hutton imo is the second biggest positive surprise so far in this young season (only behind Pettersson). His commitment to fitness this offseason has made a difference, and he's playing at a high level. I would have been fine dumping him for a mid-round pick for last draft, but now he's clearly our 3rd best blueliner, and looks like he will be a longer term top 4 fit with our next core. Huge for the rebuild.

With that said, I don't agree he's a better option than Pouliot on the top PP unit. I don't necessarily think Poo is awesome in that role either, nor Edler for that matter. All three are really second unit at best types. While Hutton can walk the line better than the other two, our PP setup needs accurate passes for one timers, and Hutton is by far the weakest of the three here. Good news is that as soon as later this year, we should see QH and maybe OJ taking the PP roles, allowing the rest of our defenders to do what they are better at.

Back to Hutton, his emergence (and I don't agree at all with those that say he was playing just as good last season--he had a stretch early where that was maybe true, but the wheels fell of his game in a bad way) really changes the look of our blueline going forward. Some don't like Pouliot, but I have been happy with the improvement in his game, even if he's not ideal on the PP and has some brain cramps. But both Hutton and Poo imo have passed Stetcher, and Stecher isn't a bad 4-5-6 option. The blueline is a lot closer to being "rebuilt" than I thought in August, and Hutton's strong play is a large part of that.

 

[MS]

Hutton is literally doing exactly what he did last November, when he was the team's best defender for an extended stretch with Tanev out and was playing 25+ minutes/game.

Then he had like 2 bad games, got scratched, and was suddenly 'out of shape' and in the press box or barely playing for the rest of the season.

 

[alternate]

Yeah, funny how logging big minutes can affect your play when conditioning isn't a priority. One thing to handle the minutes short term, but Hutton wore down last year and his play went in the gutter.

Don't think we will see the same thing this season. Big kudos to Hutton for taking the criticism from his coach, recognizing what he needed to improve, and putting the work in.

 

[Bleach Clean]

^ You’re reaching for the answer that fits your narrative alternate. Hutton was a top2 defender early last year. 2 bad games shouldn’t have overturned that, but it did. Effectively, he’s the same player. Just given more rope now.

It’s also amazing you think Pouliot is better than Stecher. This is a clear sign your views are atypical. I’d love for you to make a case for this though in the appropriate thread. What is your rationale? Very curious.

 

[F A N]

^ You’re reaching for the answer that fits your narrative alternate. Hutton was a top2 defender early last year. 2 bad games shouldn’t have overturned that, but it did. Effectively, he’s the same player. Just given more rope now.

Didn't Green say something along the lines of at some point you have to contribute offensively? I think Hutton has clearly been playing better than last season and he has had better puck luck.

 

[The Poacher]

Hutton is literally doing exactly what he did last November, when he was the team's best defender for an extended stretch with Tanev out and was playing 25+ minutes/game.

Then he had like 2 bad games, got scratched, and was suddenly 'out of shape' and in the press box or barely playing for the rest of the season.

Hutton is much more physical this year, more willing to engadge in front of his net. He’s more calm under pressure and is making better reads defensively.

Green was harping on him last year for playing soft in his own zone, and when that didn’t improve Hutton found himself in the press box.

He’s done a fantastic job committing himself to being in better shape, which has aloud him to play a more aggressive style defensively without gassing out.

He did play at this level for a period of time last season but was unable to sustain that type of play. Most likely due to conditioning.

Green showed him tough love and Hutton took the challenge and has taken his game to another level.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Hutton is much more physical this year, more willing to engadge in front of his net. He’s more calm under pressure and is making better reads defensively.

Green was harping on him last year for playing soft in his own zone, and when that didn’t improve Hutton found himself in the press box.

He’s done a fantastic job committing himself to being in better shape, which has aloud him to play a more aggressive style defensively without gassing out.

He did play at this level for a period of time last season but was unable to sustain that type of play. Most likely due to conditioning.

Green showed him tough love and Hutton took the challenge and has taken his game to another level.

Clearly,there was a conditioning factor...Green said as much,so did Hutton himself.....Of course,you have the drama queens here,who are trying to manufacture some hogwash about the coaches vendetta against him,..or something.

You could clearly see in the training camp pressers that Hutton looked a lot leaner than last season...Good on him though for buckling down.

Hutton said he isn’t proud of his season. “Coach was right to question my game and conditioning. I’m glad he did, it shows he cares and knows I can be better. And I will be better. I’ve already talked to guys back home, I’m starting a running group.”

 

[xtra]

So should Hutton have said coach is a moron there’s nothing wrong with my conditioning?

If he questions the coach then half of you would paint his as a locker room problem.


I take greens comments as him using t for a reason to play pouliot last year and avoid media scrutiny, Hutton just shut his mouth and agreed with what the coach said to get his ice time.

 

[Intangibos]

Clearly,there was a conditioning factor...Green said as much,so did Hutton himself.....Of course,you have the drama queens here,who are trying to manufacture some hogwash about the coaches vendetta against him,..or something.

Oh please, NHL coaches play favorites and this is well documented. When rumors of conditioning came out I even said if that were the case then good on Green and it would definitely excuse it, but suggesting that an NHL coach isn't giving a player a fair shake is not some insane claim.

Look at the ice time Pouliot gets, Vey with Willie, Glass with AV. Someone gets bumped out of the lineup for these players and at times it was Hutton with Pouliot.

 

[Verviticus]

if you were paying attention at all last year, the only surprising thing about hutton's play this year is that hes doing it for the canucks and not a much smarter team

 

[Intangibos]

if you were paying attention at all last year, the only surprising thing about hutton's play this year is that hes doing it for the canucks and not a much smarter team

The same people were defending Green's treatment of Hutton long before the conditioning stuff came out. Plenty of the BenningBoyz were advocating getting rid of him for 5th-7th, waiving him etc. Now they've changed their tune because everyone else who pointed out Hutton has value and top-4 potential turned out to be right.

Better cling to anything to save face rather than admit you failed to assess a player, right!?

Also I'm not directing this at you, just continuing. My post seems kind of ambiguous.

 

[Melvin]

The same people were defending Green's treatment of Hutton long before the conditioning stuff came out. Plenty of the BenningBoyz were advocating getting rid of him for 5th-7th, waiving him etc. Now they've changed their tune because everyone else who pointed out Hutton has value and top-4 potential turned out to be right.

Better cling to anything to save face rather than admit you failed to assess a player, right!?

Also I'm not directing this at you, just continuing. My post seems kind of ambiguous.

Yes, exactly. People can't handle the fact that they were wrong so have to invent some narrative consistent with them being right all along. Tedious.

Good to see @Verviticus again btw.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Yes, exactly. People can't handle the fact that they were wrong so have to invent some narrative consistent with them being right all along. Tedious.

Good to see @Verviticus again btw.

The player was out of shape,and not taking his career seriously enough.(player completely agrees).Fell out of the coaches favor..Players value craters (obviously)..

Coach promises the player a ‘clean slate’ if he comes to camp the following season in proper shape..Coach delivers on his promise.player delivers on his promise...Happy outcome..

Everything else..even more tedious.

 

[alternate]

^ You’re reaching for the answer that fits your narrative alternate. Hutton was a top2 defender early last year. 2 bad games shouldn’t have overturned that, but it did. Effectively, he’s the same player. Just given more rope now.

It’s also amazing you think Pouliot is better than Stecher. This is a clear sign your views are atypical. I’d love for you to make a case for this though in the appropriate thread. What is your rationale? Very curious.

What narrative? Why would I have a narrative about Hutton? Last year when he was playing well I was singing his praises. I'm thrilled he's playing as well as he is this season. I'm pro-Canucks and Hutton's improved play is huge for us.

It's more like you and MS and the like that are pushing a narrative. And in this case, I don't even understand what your narratives are other than your usual anti-everything about this regime. When it comes to Coach Green, I've got no skin in the game. He's a young coach getting his first shot at the NHL...I'm neither pro Green nor anti Green, I'm just curious to see how he does. I do like him better than Willie, but I also would prefer herpes to ebola. My feelings towards Green aren't strong enough in any direction to feel the need to "defend" his actions.

You say 2 games, I saw the last 50 or so he was terrible. Poor decision making, no gap control, lost his offensive confidence, and looked sluggish. He's said himself that his conditioning wasn't good enough. Take his word or don't, but not sure why you wouldn't unless you are trying to "fit a narrative."

As for Pouliot/Stecher, I'm not going to go find the correct thread, but feel free to move this if you want. I do feel Poo has played better than Stecher, but not to the point I would go out of my way to defend that position. I like Stecher, and tbh feel together they're a good third pairing in today's NHL the way both are playing (assuming two legit top 4 pairings in front of them). Stecher is a bit more consistent, Pouliot more dynamic in transition. Feel both have their moments defensively, but the good outweighs the bad. End of the day, I give Pouliot a slight edge due to his better puck skills, especially in transition, but it's a fluid position that will change depending on who is on top of their game.

 

[The Poacher]

if you were paying attention at all last year, the only surprising thing about hutton's play this year is that hes doing it for the canucks and not a much smarter team

Hutton played like dog shit for long stretches of last season. Constantly beaten wide, weak one on one battles, stick checking, bad reads defensively. It’s a cop out to say “if you were paying attention at all last year”. He had two down years after his bright rookie season. He was challenged to change parts of his game so he could go up against tougher competition and Green had a lot to do with that. Saying anything other wise is folly.

 

[WTG]

I think a lot of analysis about Hutton last year was tainted by Loss Aversion.

It's better not to lose some cash then to find some cash. It's better for Hutton not to make a mistake on the ice, rather then Hutton making a positive impact.
The positive impacts Hutton was making last year was his zone control and zone entry. While he made some mistakes, people would exaggerate the extent of those mistakes, while completely ignoring his impact on zone control.

 

[The Poacher]

I think a lot of analysis about Hutton last year was tainted by Loss Aversion.

It's better not to lose some cash then to find some cash. It's better for Hutton not to make a mistake on the ice, rather then Hutton making a positive impact.
The positive impacts Hutton was making last year was his zone control and zone entry. While he made some mistakes, people would exaggerate the extent of those mistakes, while completely ignoring his impact on zone control.

I agree with you, it’s eaiser to find negatives when the team is playing bad. The positives like his zone control and zone entry is what made him such an interesting player, you could see the talent.

What he’s added to his game this season is what makes him a top 4/3 defencman and not a number 5/6 guy. He can go up against oppositions top lines and play well.

 

[Bleach Clean]

What narrative? Why would I have a narrative about Hutton? Last year when he was playing well I was singing his praises. I'm thrilled he's playing as well as he is this season. I'm pro-Canucks and Hutton's improved play is huge for us.

It's more like you and MS and the like that are pushing a narrative. And in this case, I don't even understand what your narratives are other than your usual anti-everything about this regime. When it comes to Coach Green, I've got no skin in the game. He's a young coach getting his first shot at the NHL...I'm neither pro Green nor anti Green, I'm just curious to see how he does. I do like him better than Willie, but I also would prefer herpes to ebola. My feelings towards Green aren't strong enough in any direction to feel the need to "defend" his actions.

You say 2 games, I saw the last 50 or so he was terrible. Poor decision making, no gap control, lost his offensive confidence, and looked sluggish. He's said himself that his conditioning wasn't good enough. Take his word or don't, but not sure why you wouldn't unless you are trying to "fit a narrative."

Your narrative is to defend your initial take on his play, which I feel is incorrect. Also, your take aligns with the coach's poor read on his play, which was also incorrect. He was excelling at a top2 level before being sat after 2 bad games. That level of accountability does not exist for other Dmen on the roster. It shouldn't have even been a thing for Hutton. The height of his play was that good. Just take a gander at Gudbranson's body of work before this year. Or, Pouliot's play. The scales were and are not balanced. Nor is it even handed when fans inexplicably side with poor judgement. If you want to say that your read is completely independent of Green's own read, fair enough, but it's still the wrong read. That doesn't change.

Statistically, Hutton is effectively the same player. Stylistically, he's in better shape and harder on the puck. Did that change his effectiveness? I would say no. Did it change your perception of him? Looks like it did, and that deserves criticism. He didn't deserve the criticism he received last year.

As for Pouliot/Stecher, I'm not going to go find the correct thread, but feel free to move this if you want. I do feel Poo has played better than Stecher, but not to the point I would go out of my way to defend that position. I like Stecher, and tbh feel together they're a good third pairing in today's NHL the way both are playing (assuming two legit top 4 pairings in front of them). Stecher is a bit more consistent, Pouliot more dynamic in transition. Feel both have their moments defensively, but the good outweighs the bad. End of the day, I give Pouliot a slight edge due to his better puck skills, especially in transition, but it's a fluid position that will change depending on who is on top of their game.

Those "moments" defensively happen a lot more for Pouliot than they do for Stecher. A lot more. In fact, Pouliot is a tire fire at ES. Stecher outclasses him handily there. How you can equate the two there, and then give the edge to Pouliot for puck skills, is beyond me. What are you watching? I implore you to watch these guys closely in games. It's not even. Stecher is smarter, harder to play against, quicker mentally and plays within the pace of the game. He doesn't try to slow it down to his level like Pouliot attempts to do almost every time. Just focus on these two next game.

Yes, exactly. People can't handle the fact that they were wrong so have to invent some narrative consistent with them being right all along. Tedious.

Good to see @Verviticus again btw.

Unicorn sighting with Verv showing up. Sign of good fortune?

Here's a narrative to add to the mix: Green doesn't like it when you are out of shape. It's more important to him that you are in shape and don't party, than it is for him to detach himself from those outside aspects and just judge play on its merits. That's why someone who played like a #3 Dman last year goes to the doghouse. And that's why that same player, looking a bit skinnier now, towing the line, is being played as he should be playing now. I don't think it goes any farther than that with Hutton.

 

[Intangibos]

I think a lot of analysis about Hutton last year was tainted by Loss Aversion.

It's better not to lose some cash then to find some cash. It's better for Hutton not to make a mistake on the ice, rather then Hutton making a positive impact.
The positive impacts Hutton was making last year was his zone control and zone entry. While he made some mistakes, people would exaggerate the extent of those mistakes, while completely ignoring his impact on zone control.

I also think it's because a defenceman playing well doesn't stand out unless it's for scoring. Unless you're making a point of watching you won't notice a lot of D playing well until they make a mistake. How long was Tanev underrated for not making hits or scoring despite being a rock defensively and moving the puck out of the zone?