The Cup Window

[smithformeragent]

There has been a lot of discussion and debate surrounding Chiarelli falling in love with his core given the extension of Krejci. I think it would be interesting to sort of flesh out this team's short and long term chances at another cup.

Some of the items I'd like to touch on are as follows:

1. The Core Who constitutes the core? I think we can all agree that you start with Rask, Chara, Bergeron and Krejci. Do you include Hamilton, Seidenberg and Lucic? Does it matter? For reference, Bergeron, Krejci, Chara, Seidenberg and Rask are all signed for the next four years or more. 2 FWD, 2D, 1G. Neither of the forwards are wings.

2. Age This is tied directly to the core. We all know that Chara isn't getting better at this point. Bergeron and Krejci are approaching 30. Rask is 27. How long can the core players produce at their best ability? How sharp will their drop off be and at what point are their contracts poor value?

3. Organizational Depth The ability to draft and develop. This organization is haunted by the misses on Caron and Hammill. However, they have connected on guys in the 2nd round. They've made changes to their scouting and draft team. What's in the cupboard and what are their needs in order to supplement what they have?

4. The Salary Cap All indications are that it will rise. What are some of the cap implications on this team? Who are the potential cap casualties and do you move on early in order to maximize return or do you hold onto them and let them play out their deals in the hopes of winning a cup? I'll also tie the Bruins ability to attract free agents to Boston here. Are players willing to take less to come to Boston? I think back to 2005/2006 and then the 2006 off season where they had to "overpay" for Chara and Savard in order to make a statement. The culture has changed. They have the ability to bring in tertiary pieces in order to augment the core. I think you'll see reclamation projects want to come to Boston for a year at short money in order to boost their value.

5. The Conference The general consensus is that the East is inferior to the West which makes the path that much easier. Who in the conference scares you? Which teams are on the rise and which are on the decline. We can tie the divisional playoff format into this as well. Does having to go through a Montreal in the playoffs change how you build a club? Style of play?

6. The Clode Is he tied directly to the core? Is his window of opportunity the same as theirs? How much slack does he get? Does the system work or does it need to evolve in order to match up to certain trends in the league?

In conclusion, what would you say the Bruins odds are to win the conference this season? The cup this season? Number of cups in the next 5 seasons?

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[BigGoalBrad]

If Boychuk leaves after this year I think it shuts temporarily or very likely shutss due to an injury come playoff time because the chances either Seidenberg or Chara are out or playing at around 50% is really high and without JB we will need both at or close to their best.

If we keep Boychuk I think the transition from Seids and Chara won't hurt too much and I say we have 6 more years with the team around where its currently at.

Lose Boychuk and 2 of the next 4 years I give us a decent shot to win but the other 2 we are likely too thin on D due to injury or age.

I think Bergeron and Krecji tick down slightly earlier than everyone else thinks and their decline starts 34-35 just due to neither being that fast you need to have had good wheels to be a good late 30s player Bergeron's lack of speed doesn't matter right now in his prime but I think it will once he gets to around 34.

 

[qc]

1. The Core - 17, 33, 37, 40, 44, 46.

18, 27, and 47 (in spite of his limited ceiling in his own end) all have decent potential to become core players as well

2. Age - I think Z has 2-3 great years left. I see DK and Bergeron playing at a high level for at least another 5 years. And it's a bold statement, but Rask easily could still be a top 5 goalie when his contact ends. Loosick is only 26, which is quite amazing (like Patty B, he's been with the big club for so long that it feels like he's way older).

3. Organizational Depth - I think our defensive development (of both forwards and d-men) is damn good. Our forward drafting is hit or miss (maybe Pasta will help change that impression). We seem to operate as if right-handed shooters are equivalent to left-handed Catholic School children of the 1950s. I like our Center depth and think we need to improve w/r/t wingers. I do like our scouting connects in Europe, and I think we're pretty damn good at scouting undrafted players.

4. The Salary Cap - Sadly, JB55 might be a cap casualty, but I hope not. I think we need to strongly consider moving the following players for cap relief/picks/prospects: 11, 23, 38, 43, and even my favorite (54) if Miller builds off of his impressive rookie year. I think it's highly important to lock up Carl for 3-6 years.

5. The Conference - I see TB and Columbus as teams that are on their way to being really ****ing good. MTL and Pit will always be in the running, though I don't fear them as others do. The Isles and Sabres could be giving us trouble in 3-4 years. I still see this team as a perennial top 3 in the conference for the foreseeable future.

6. The Clode - I think he is insanely important to this team, and I consider him as a part of the core. I also feel that Neely and Chia are of the utmost importance, but I think Clode's system and ability to manage our current roster makes him untouchable, barring any future chokejobs. He has his quirks that drive me crazy from time to time, but go look at the Hawks and Kings forums... no team, regardless of their recent successes, can say that their coach is flawlessly infallible.

In conclusion, what would you say the Bruins odds are to win the conference this season? The cup this season? Number of cups in the next 5 seasons?

I suck at odds, but I think we have a great chance of getting to the Conf. finals, and possibly winning them. This team has peaked in the years where we weren't the #1 powerhouse or defending cup champion (see- 2011, 2013). We don't have the depth that last year's team had, but that might lead to us playing with less complacency this year (and in the postseason vs. inferior opposition).

I think we'll be in cup conversations for the next 3-4 years with this current team, but we won't ever be in our own tier above the rest. I think we'll be in the top tier of 5 or so teams (such as Chi or LA).

 

[BNHL]

Time is rarely good to 33 year old plus players that were not elite to begin with. The higher the talent the longer they sustain higher levels of play. 30% production declines have been marked between ages 31 and 34. This is historically the ages where declines are beginning and apparent. Top defensemen and goalies appear to perform at higher levels longer. So I would say the Bruins have about a 3 year window before slight declines contribute to second tier team performance as the team is presently built.

 

[acr*]

1. The Core - 17, 33, 37, 40, 27, 46.

2. Age - Chara is the only player that is over the hill at this point. Seidenberg is going to be in another two years. Overall, I think age is okay and will continue to improve if a guy like Pastarnak or Spooner make the team. Any age problems are on D and we need to use next year's 1st rounder to find the best shut down D we can. It is a deep draft and there are a lot of forward pieces that will go early. I think the team have a good shot at finding a bargain D-man in the 20s.

3. Organizational Depth - I think that this is okay overall. There have been some misses, but that happens. There have also been some steals late. I'd like to see us re-build a stable of physical wingers in the next couple years. The center position is pretty shored up.

4. The Salary Cap - We will spend to the limit and likely have a hard time retaining all of our talent because of it. It is no different than anyone else. A non-factor.

5. The Conference - I personally don't find the west to so head and shoulders above the east. There are 2-3 elite teams there and I think 2 in the east. There 3-8 spots are a dog fight though. Tampa is on the rise in the east. Montreal is a real threat. Pittsburgh's retooling is what scares me the most. I see them making a run in 15-16. I don't think we change our style of play at all, in fact I think we need to get back to what made us successful in 11. We don't have the same size we did then and lack the urgency. This team needs an underdog mentality to win. I hope the loss to Montreal really gives this time a chip on their shoulder. F--- speed. Just play to win and take it to em!

6. The Clode - Clode is in the core and has a very long leash. He could miss playoffs and not get fired. He would get until December of the next season to right the ship. I'd like to see our board work get back to what it was in the past and find a way to improve our offensive zone presence. I feel like we are overly reliant on our transition game and scoring off the rush. I know possession numbers are favorable to us, but I feel as though this could improve.

BOTTOM LINE: We will win 1-2 cups in the next 5 years and that is the window with the core listed.

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

...

1. The Core
Bergeron, Chara, Krejci, Lucic, Marchand and Rask. Dougie on the cusp.

2. Age
Chara only has a few left, while I expect another full five seasons before any real rust develops on the forwards I've highlighted in bold. Not sure what that means for the window. Until there's evidence of decline, I'm okay leaving it open.

3. Organizational Depth
I honestly don't know. I like some of the guys they've drafted. I think the strategy is questionable at times. Medium until proven otherwise? I think I can say that they are in "show me" mode. The benefit of the doubt doesn't exist and I want to see some of them succeed.

4. The Salary Cap
Much of the core is already locked up long term. It will cost the Bruins less than other teams will likely spend on their own in the next few years AND we've already seen these guys lead this club to a Cup (we know what we have when it matters most). I think we're in good shape here.

5. The Conference
The East didn't do itself any favors in the offseason. And (for that matter) as long as the Bruins have this core, they will at LEAST be competitive. And no matter what, they should be among the tops in this conference next year. The balance of power lies on the other half of the continent for now and that helps the Bruins.

6. Julien
I'll throw in the rest of this management team... They've been great so far in their tenure and I see no reason to count their days any time soon. I'm not convinced that anyone else could come in and coach this club to the same level of success as Claude can and has.
BUT
If the Cup window with Chara is squandered by a rigid insistence on "the formula" rather than attempting to improve upon it, the support they get from us will evaporate quickly.

 

[KnightofBoston]

That's why I thought the Subban pick was smart. He could transform into an elite goalie under the tutelage of rask and behind the system.

Hamilton can eventually be Chara's replacement. I like the defense more balanced anyways, more transition too

Our top two centers definitely have at least one more cup in them. After that it's just filler, smart drafting good free agent signings. We'll be in the hunt every year for awhile, and that's all you can really ask for. Not to worry my friends

 

[wintersej]

With Krejci, Bergeron, and it seems likely, Soderberg, down the middle for the foreseeable future at reasonable cap hits, I think the Bruins Cup window comes down to Hamilton's progression and the Bruins drafting ability to fill in the roster.

 

[don]

I see the current core as Bergeron, Rask, Krejci and Chara with Chara being the closest to being off the list. Seidenberg, as evidenced last year, Lucic are the closest to being included. As far as the Cup Window, as well as how long players will be around and effective, that depends on injuries......both to themselves and their team mates.

 

[13Hockey]

According to Bovada the Bruins will win the presidents trophy again

 

[Gargyn]

1. sure as hell hope you include Hamilton; I think Bergeron, Krejci, Hamilton, Rask is the core. Chara wont me moved, but I think moving forward, it should be considered.
2. I think Bergeron and Krejci still have at least 5 good years left, more for Rask. Many more for Hamilton.
3. Organization lacks blue chippers both with the big organization and with the prospects. This team needs a stud goal scorer. Maybe through a trade.
4. Even with the cap rising, this team is handcuffed going forward. Smith and Krug may get 1 year deals and then they need raises. Hamilton needs a raise. Lucic better not get a raise. This year and next this team will have to be creative.
5. Montreal, not because of their talent, but because of the name. Also, Tampa Bay is loaded with young talent, also has the best goal scorer in the game, a stud goalie, a young stud dman in Hedman and loads of depth. Pittsburgh with a new coach and system will be dangerous as usual.
6. Clode has done excellent here. He has his issues, but every coach does. His system makes our players look better than they are.

I think the team has a good chance at winning the conference. They are the favorites, but personally, I don't think they will unless they get a goal scorer to flank Krejci. Cups in the next 5 years? I say 0. Reason being Chiarelli loves this core and I don't think it's good enough. I think they got Vancouver off their game, rode Tim Thomas' heroics and got a bit lucky to win the cup. Every team needs luck though. I just don't see Rask being that same difference maker as Thomas. I see a serious lack of goals come playoff time. I see an aging and far less effective Chara. Lucic is so overrated its not even funny.

 

[Trap Jesus]

So much is dependent on Hamilton being able to become an elite D-man IMO. The pieces are in place in goal and in the top 6, along with defensive depth, but if we don't have an elite D-man like we have with Chara for so many years, I think it would be difficult to call them consistent Cup contenders.

 

[Stone Clode]

So much is dependent on Hamilton being able to become an elite D-man IMO. The pieces are in place in goal and in the top 6, along with defensive depth, but if we don't have an elite D-man like we have with Chara for so many years, I think it would be difficult to call them consistent Cup contenders.

Partly this, yes. And also they may need to draft and develop another future top pairing d-man (hopefully Morrow may be that one day). This team is loaded with a depth of defensemen, but not of them, save Hamilton, has top 2 upside. Many project to be bottom pairing, or specialists (Warsofsky, Krug). Its good to have those, but if you can't re-sign Boychuk, the cup window shrinks quite a bit with Chara's eventual retirement and Seidenberg. My hope is that they continue to focus on trying to win in the Chara era, but also to try and draft a defenseman for the future/continue being patient with Morrow.