OT - NO POLITICS The Coronavirus Covid-19

[Spooner st]

Flattening the curve [TBODY] [/TBODY]

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An infographic showing two possible outcomes for the coronavirus pandemic — one dire, one less so — has quickly become a defining image of the crisis. [TBODY] [/TBODY]

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“This graph is changing minds, and by changing minds, it is saving lives,” tweeted Carl Bergstrom, a professor of biology at the University of Washington. [TBODY] [/TBODY]

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[TBODY] [/TBODY] Drew Harris [TBODY] [/TBODY]

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It shows two curves for the epidemic over time: A steep peak, if no protective measures are taken, and a flatter slope if people wash their hands, limit travel and practice “social distancing” techniques. [TBODY] [/TBODY]

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A few days after seeing the Economist infographic, Drew Harris, a population health analyst at Thomas Jefferson University in Philadelphia, added a crucial component: a dotted line indicating the capacity of the health care system to care for people with the virus. He posted it on Twitter and LinkedIn, where it quickly took off. [TBODY] [/TBODY]

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“Now I know what going viral means,” Dr. Harris told our colleague Siobhan Roberts. [TBODY] [/TBODY]

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Flattening the curve with mitigation “reduces the number of cases that are active at any given time, which in turn gives doctors, hospitals, police, schools and vaccine manufacturers time to prepare and respond, without becoming overwhelmed,” he said [TBODY] [/TBODY]

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Click to read more...

 

[Spooner st]

Flattening the curve is the most important thing we can do to stop the coronavirus virus.

 

[BruinsFanSince94]

Don't we have a thread to discuss this?

 

[Spooner st]

Italy today had a worst day than yesterday. 2,561 new cases and 189 deaths.

The US 335 new cases and 2 deaths.

As of now the US has the same curve as Italy had at the beginning.

 

[Spooner st]

Don't we have a thread to discuss this?

No the other one is about the Bruins cancelled season

 

[Spooner st]

A great page to have up to date info on the numbers.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 134,469 Cases and 4,970 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

 

[Mainehockey33]

A great page to have up to date info on the numbers.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 134,469 Cases and 4,970 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Almost a 4% mortality rate, that’s insane.

 

[Spooner st]

Almost a 4% mortality rate, that’s insane.

It's getting worse, we will have month's of this until it gets better.

 

[Mainehockey33]

If half the people in the US were infected, that’s about 5.4 million deaths.

 

[Mainehockey33]

It's getting worse, we will have month's of this until it gets better.

I picked the right time to break my leg, mandatory quarantine.

 

[Bruinfanatic]

Italy today had a worst day than yesterday. 2,561 new cases and 189 deaths.

The US 335 new cases and 2 deaths.

As of now the US has the same curve as Italy had at the beginning.

Are Health Minister in Canada says now 70% of Canadians could get it ,after weeks of telling us we were at a low risk of getting it. All governments are the same they don’t want to create a mass hysteria unless they have to.

 

[Spooner st]

I'll get the links of it. But worldwide experts all projected the almost every country will get infected between 30 to 70%.
70% being the hight end.

 

[RedBruin]

First case in my little town in Southern Germany confirmed, on my street a few houses down the road.

 

[CrazyMonkey1208]

If I ran this board I'd temporarily change the name to CVBoards. That's all we'll be talking about for a while now

 

[Deleted]

Almost a 4% mortality rate, that’s insane.

What's even more insane is the difference in mortality rate between say China and Italy. In China it is just under 4% whereas in Italy it is just under 7%!! I wonder why that is?

 

[Spooner st]

A crucial thing to understand about the coronavirus threat — and it’s playing out grimly in Italy — is the difference between the total number of people who might get sick and the number who might get sick at the same time. Our country has only 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people. That’s fewer than in Italy (3.2), China (4.3) and South Korea (12.3), all of which have had struggles. More important, there are only so many intensive care beds and ventilators.
It’s estimated that we have about 45,000 intensive care unit beds in the United States. In a moderate outbreak, about 200,000 Americans would need one.

A recent report from the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins estimated that there were about 160,000 ventilators available for patient care. That may seem like a lot, and under normal circumstances, it is. Pandemics, however, change the calculations.
A few years earlier, the same group modeled how many ventilators would be needed in unusual circumstances. In a pandemic akin to the flu pandemics in 1957 or 1968, about 65,000 people might need ventilation.

Here’s the Biggest Thing to Worry About With Coronavirus

 

[Blowfish]

This sucks

 

[Spooner st]

What's even more insane is the difference in mortality rate between say China and Italy. In China it is just under 4% whereas in Italy it is just under 7%!! I wonder why that is?

China create 2 hospitals in less than 10 days.

Italy are underwhelm with everyone getting sick at same time.
Doctors are at the point they have to choose who dies and who lives. They are out of ventilators.

That's where the importance of flattening the curve comes in. Delaying the spread as much as possible to not underwhelm the hospital's crews.

 

[Gee Wally]

Flattening the curve is absolutely must be done.
There are limited beds under normal situations. In a pandemic if even only 1% of population is effected at same time the system can not handle it.

Then you factor in a percentage of health care workers succumb you have a cluster you know what.

 

[Deleted]

China create 2 hospitals in less than 10 days.

Italy are underwhelm with everyone getting sick at same time.
Doctors are at the point they have to choose who dies and who lives. They are out of ventilators.

That's where the importance of flattening the curve comes in. Delaying the spread as much as possible to not underwhelm the hospital's crews.

That's right I forgot about those hospitals that they built.

 

[Spooner st]

Flattening the curve is absolutely must be done.
There are limited beds under normal situations. In a pandemic if even only 1% of population is effected at same time the system can not handle it.

Then you factor in a percentage of health care workers succumb you have a cluster you know what.

Exactly, people need to understand this and do what it takes to get over the bump. People denying it will only make the task impossible.

 

[Spooner st]

First case in my little town in Southern Germany confirmed, on my street a few houses down the road.

Dude, you guys are rock solid. I look at Germany's numbers and you guys are mind boggling. Very impressive.

2,745 cases total and a total of 6 deaths.
Yesterday it was less than 2000 cases and 3 deaths. Those number are rock solid. Other countries should follow what you guys are doing.

 

[Over the volcano]

Flattening the curve is absolutely must be done.
There are limited beds under normal situations. In a pandemic if even only 1% of population is effected at same time the system can not handle it.

Then you factor in a percentage of health care workers succumb you have a cluster you know what.

Know this isn’t supposed to be a political thread but the political landscape and leadership has shown no reason to hope that any flattening of the curve is within their capability.

 

[Spooner st]

Top 10.

 

[Gee Wally]

Currently 10% positivity rate in Washington state. The data shows at current rate Washington state will have 25000 cases in 2 weeks.