Speculation: The Central question

[PK Cronin]

What, I can't have high standards?

My original post was off the top of my head, and I wasn't sure of the exact percentages. Now if, 49% to 52% is doable, then 52% to 55% should be doable. Unreasonable, right? But, Tavares seems to be able to better his game in the offseason, and I'm sure he worked on face-offs. But I just checked his actual numbers, and he has consistently hovered around 50%, and was actually as high as 52.5% in the 2010/11 season.

Jumping 5% points is a vast improvement. He's not going to be around 55%, it's just not happening. To put it into perspective for you, Crosby wins ~52% (was 52.5%) and is considered pretty good on the draw, while Giroux was right around 53%.

Your 'satisfactory' comment just takes you into another stratosphere in terms of what you expect. If that's satisfactory, you really didn't/don't have a grasp of what the actual percentages are for elite faceoff men and probably should'n't have commented at all before checking the numbers. You're talking about a difference of literally hundreds of faceoffs in order to put up those numbers.

"I think that if Tavares can increase his goals from his career high of 31 to 50, and then from 50 to 70, that'd be satisfactory..." seems a bit absurd, no?

 

[ScaredStreit]

What, I can't have high standards?

My original post was off the top of my head, and I wasn't sure of the exact percentages. Now if, 49% to 52% is doable, then 52% to 55% should be doable. Unreasonable, right? But, Tavares seems to be able to better his game in the offseason, and I'm sure he worked on face-offs. But I just checked his actual numbers, and he has consistently hovered around 50%, and was actually as high as 52.5% in the 2010/11 season.

That's like saying that a player who scores 25 goals then jumps up to 50 should also be able to jump from 50 to 75. That would be doable right?

 

[A Pointed Stick]

By "franchise player" - I'll assume you mean star to superstar caliber.


I think Okposo can get to that level by this coming season, and I believe Strome (and possibly) Nelson will be there too.

Franchise Player as defined by Wiki - A player who is defined as more than just the best player on a team, but instead one a team can build around.

No one besides Tavares, and that includes Okposo, Strome, Hamonic, CdH or the rest, fits that particular definition today.

That is what I mean, and Stanley Cup teams always have more than one, and several other elite players. I think you could make an argument for some of our kids eventually becoming elite talent today, if not starting to put up a reason to argue they are there now, but not franchise. If Tavares took the next UFO to Mars and never came back we don't have anyone you obviously build around. We have excellent depth though.

 

[OlTimeHockey]

Franchise Player as defined by Wiki - A player who is defined as more than just the best player on a team, but instead one a team can build around.

No one besides Tavares, and that includes Okposo, Strome, Hamonic, CdH or the rest, fits that particular definition today.

That is what I mean, and Stanley Cup teams always have more than one, and several other elite players. I think you could make an argument for some of our kids eventually becoming elite talent today, if not starting to put up a reason to argue they are there now, but not franchise. If Tavares took the next UFO to Mars and never came back we don't have anyone you obviously build around. We have excellent depth though.

I don't rate Chara as a franchise guy. I don't think the Ducks had a franchise guy. Sometimes the sum of its parts is more important than the hot engine in a vehicle.

Johnny T is a franchise guy but I don't care if we get another.....we need a tight D and reliable physical play and dedicated forechecking and backchecking to win the Cup.

So I agree and emphasize the depth part. Ideally, if we could sneak in THREE franchise players like in the Dynasty years, that'd be swell.

 

[rikker]

I don't rate Chara as a franchise guy. I don't think the Ducks had a franchise guy. Sometimes the sum of its parts is more important than the hot engine in a vehicle.

Johnny T is a franchise guy but I don't care if we get another.....we need a tight D and reliable physical play and dedicated forechecking and backchecking to win the Cup.

So I agree and emphasize the depth part. Ideally, if we could sneak in THREE franchise players like in the Dynasty years, that'd be swell.

agreed completely with the depth philosophy. feeling very good about our depth everywhere, right now. NHL, AHL, prospects. just need better depth in the GM and coach categories...

 

[steveat]

Reinhart is the only one that I can see having the skill, pedigree and mind to be a second franchise player for us. if it wasn't for his off the charts hockey IQ, I'd have said no way.

In reference...ie, Kings. I see only two true franchise players and that's Doughty and Quick. Brown and Kopitar are good players and are important pieces, but they aren't franchise (in my eyes anyway).

TBH, If a team wins the stanley cup, the most important part is having a franchise goalie. I am trying to think of the last team that won with a garbage goalie..I can't...OR..even if the goalie had a less than stellar career, he could have stood on his head during the playoffs...but still...I can't think of a no good goalie winning.

 

[CREW99AW]

I think we might see Grabo on JT's wing and Nelson at center. Capuano has been on multiple radio shows saying how hard it is for him to move Nelson from center.

I'd read a Cappy quote, where he spoke about giving Brock Nelson a long look on JT's LW .

 

[SLAPSHOT723]

I'd read a Cappy quote, where he spoke about giving Brock Nelson a long look on JT's LW .

Capuano was a guest on NHL radio at one point over the summer, where he said it's hard to move a guy like Nelson with his size and skill out of the center depth and to LW, but he doesn't really have a choice based on the way the roster is right now.

 

[A Pointed Stick]

I don't rate Chara as a franchise guy. I don't think the Ducks had a franchise guy. Sometimes the sum of its parts is more important than the hot engine in a vehicle.

Johnny T is a franchise guy but I don't care if we get another.....we need a tight D and reliable physical play and dedicated forechecking and backchecking to win the Cup.

So I agree and emphasize the depth part. Ideally, if we could sneak in THREE franchise players like in the Dynasty years, that'd be swell.

I am all for the above, but understand the B's are an exception to the rule and you build for the rule, not the exception. The list of teams with multiple franchise players who won the cup is a mountain in comparrison to any who were not. The Ducks... They won a cup with Neidermayer... even at his age he was on his game and I don't know how you don't consider him Franchise level talent, and Perry and Getzlaf.... both better than anyone on our team not named Tavares... if not franchise the duo may be a sum of the parts thing - a franchise pairing? lol, but the talent and the depth all there...

 

[CREW99AW]

Capuano was a guest on NHL radio at one point over the summer, where he said it's hard to move a guy like Nelson with his size and skill out of the center depth and to LW, but he doesn't really have a choice based on the way the roster is right now.

Alright. Thanks for clarifying ( sp) his comments.

 

[PK Cronin]

Reinhart is the only one that I can see having the skill, pedigree and mind to be a second franchise player for us. if it wasn't for his off the charts hockey IQ, I'd have said no way.

In reference...ie, Kings. I see only two true franchise players and that's Doughty and Quick. Brown and Kopitar are good players and are important pieces, but they aren't franchise (in my eyes anyway).

TBH, If a team wins the stanley cup, the most important part is having a franchise goalie. I am trying to think of the last team that won with a garbage goalie..I can't...OR..even if the goalie had a less than stellar career, he could have stood on his head during the playoffs...but still...I can't think of a no good goalie winning.

Probably the first Red Wings or the Chicago cups were won without a franchise goalie. Was Osgood a franchise guy at the time? What about Niemi?

 

[Al Arbour]

Jumping 5% points is a vast improvement. He's not going to be around 55%, it's just not happening. To put it into perspective for you, Crosby wins ~52% (was 52.5%) and is considered pretty good on the draw, while Giroux was right around 53%.

Your 'satisfactory' comment just takes you into another stratosphere in terms of what you expect. If that's satisfactory, you really didn't/don't have a grasp of what the actual percentages are for elite faceoff men and probably should'n't have commented at all before checking the numbers. You're talking about a difference of literally hundreds of faceoffs in order to put up those numbers.

"I think that if Tavares can increase his goals from his career high of 31 to 50, and then from 50 to 70, that'd be satisfactory..." seems a bit absurd, no?

You're focusing too much on specific words, rather than my thoughts as a whole.

Tavares WAS at 52.5% a few years ago. Last season he was at 49.1%. So, yeah, from 49.1% to 53% or 54% is a big jump. But considering he had a 52.5% season, I don't see why 53% or 54% is out of the question. And yes, I realize my numbers were way off in my original post, because, as I explained, they were off the top of my head.

Let's take Giroux, for example. Within four seasons he increased his faceoff percentage from 47.2% to 54.5%. I'm not saying Tavares will, but it's possible. Actually, it's likely that JT will get better, at only 23 years old. And I don't think you can argue against this.

 

[Al Arbour]

That's like saying that a player who scores 25 goals then jumps up to 50 should also be able to jump from 50 to 75. That would be doable right?

I literally said that was unreasonable in my post. And I'm having a hard time comparing face-off percentage to goals scored. 1 goal scored = X FO%

 

[ScaredStreit]

I am all for the above, but understand the B's are an exception to the rule and you build for the rule, not the exception. The list of teams with multiple franchise players who won the cup is a mountain in comparrison to any who were not. The Ducks... They won a cup with Neidermayer... even at his age he was on his game and I don't know how you don't consider him Franchise level talent, and Perry and Getzlaf.... both better than anyone on our team not named Tavares... if not franchise the duo may be a sum of the parts thing - a franchise pairing? lol, but the talent and the depth all there...

Agreed, and don't forget Pronger (who was better than Niedermayer imo).

 

[LeapOnOver]

Agreed, and don't forget Pronger (who was better than Niedermayer imo).

What!?!?!

 

[LeapOnOver]

I hear ya. I still see Frans as the #2 guy. I just think he's better than Grabovski and the coaching staff trusts him more than any other player on the team. I think the Isles are pretty strong at C in comparison to many teams, but aren't in that top tier like a Boston or Pittsburgh or even Philly.

I tend to agree but only because i'm a big Nielsen fan and I don't really know that much about Grabovski.

I do however think, like others have said in the past, that the Grabo and Nielsen line will get fairly equal ice time, while being used in different situations. It will be like having a line 1, then a line 2a and 2b, and then a fourth line.

 

[PK Cronin]

You're focusing too much on specific words, rather than my thoughts as a whole.

Tavares WAS at 52.5% a few years ago. Last season he was at 49.1%. So, yeah, from 49.1% to 53% or 54% is a big jump. But considering he had a 52.5% season, I don't see why 53% or 54% is out of the question. And yes, I realize my numbers were way off in my original post, because, as I explained, they were off the top of my head.

Let's take Giroux, for example. Within four seasons he increased his faceoff percentage from 47.2% to 54.5%. I'm not saying Tavares will, but it's possible. Actually, it's likely that JT will get better, at only 23 years old. And I don't think you can argue against this.

Out of Tavares' 5 seasons, he's broken the 50% mark twice. Starting four seasons ago, from his highest FO%, he's been getting worse each season. I think he can go back up to 52 or 53%, sure, but that wasn't your original claim. In fact, I think he'll be improved in that area, but I do not think he'll ever become an elite faceoff guy.

'Focusing too much on the words' is a bit funny, since that's the point of debating and stating your opinion. It's fine if (and you did) admit that your numbers were wrong to start with, but you can't go back and try to validate your intent now. Just go with the idea that you think he'll increase back around his peak.

 

[OlTimeHockey]

What!?!?!

I had to reread that myself!

 

[steveat]

Man..I'd love to have a youthful Scott Stevens on this team. I actually think Reinhart "could" be that guy. Calm...big and tough.

 

[ScaredStreit]

What!?!?!

I said Pronger was better than Niedermayer. He was better offensively, played a more physical and intimidating game, just as good defensively (if not slightly better). It's not that big of a stretch. We're talking about Pronger in 2007, not 2011.

And if you want to compare careers it's Pronger AINEC.

 

[Drcrush]

Grabovski will be the big overachiever this year. He will break his Point record with a 30-30-60 this year

 

[Drcrush]

What, I can't have high standards?

My original post was off the top of my head, and I wasn't sure of the exact percentages. Now if, 49% to 52% is doable, then 52% to 55% should be doable. Unreasonable, right? But, Tavares seems to be able to better his game in the offseason, and I'm sure he worked on face-offs. But I just checked his actual numbers, and he has consistently hovered around 50%, and was actually as high as 52.5% in the 2010/11 season.

JT won´t be near 55% FO

if he gets it together I´d say 51-52% tops. And that would be a big improvement

 

[kasper11]

Not pumping him up at all here, but Bailey can also slide into that center spot when need be, as he did last season (he's obviously last on the depth chart). It's great to have two guys who can play that position on almost every line, and who can (potentially) win some faceoffs when the center is thrown out.

Lets just hope that the team faceoff numbers improve with this kind of depth, because it's needed.

Well, Grabo has been over 50% the past 3 years and was at 54% last year, so that should help. JT and Frans were both a tad over 49%, so that trio should keep the Isles at or above 50%.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

I hope they don't mess with the JT-Okposo and Kulemin-Grabovski pairings.
Would also suggest keeping Grabner with Nielsen and Cizikas with Martin.

It's then pretty easy to find spots for everyone else in conjunction with these pairings.

 

[Kevin27NYI]

http://www.lighthousehockey.com/201...coach-video-breakouts-forechecking-usa-hockey

Jack talks about systems and strategies for USA hockey coaches.

In some of these videos, he really supports Nelsons D game. I think this further supports what I said above about what he said in the XM interview. I don't know if it's so set yet.