The Canadiens and Puck Possession...

GlitchMarner

Typical malevolent, devious & vile Maple Leafs fan
Jul 21, 2017
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I'm a bit perplexed by how good the Canadiens are when it comes to stats like SAT% and SAT% close. I believe they had very good possession stats last season as well.

Yet the team seems to be middling overall (going back three seasons, not just this year) and has no real game-breaking talent (in the aftermath of Subban and Pacioretty). Don't get me wrong: The roster certainly has some talent, but it lacks anyone I would call a star forward.

In particular, I don't really understand how Danault and Gallagher are consistently highly dominant possession players. Danault is a good checker and has some talent, but he's not in the tier of guys like prime Kopitar when it comes to offensive talent (he's a poor man's ROR at best). Gallagher is a legit first line forward and elite net-front presence, but he doesn't seem too creative and isn't the most dynamic forward. Does their top line play a particular system that emphasizes getting the puck on net at every opportunity or something? What gives?
 

BlackAdam

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May 5, 2013
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they have no high end talent on offense to reflect off that possession.
hard work only gets you so far. if your players drive possession but most of your shots come from the perimeter and your strategy is brendan gallagher to stand in front of the net to deflect pucks or rebounds, that only gets you so far.

look at that the last game where they lost to the leafs.
notice the skilled goals matthews scored. who on the habs can score like that?

goal scoring has been the number 1 issues for the habs for years.
even in 2014 when the habs lost to the rangers in the playoffs. everyone says it's because price went down, but a lot those losses were 1 goal games (aside from game 1).
 
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GlitchMarner

Typical malevolent, devious & vile Maple Leafs fan
Jul 21, 2017
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they have no high end talent on offense to reflect off that possession.
hard work only gets you so far. if your players drive possession but most of your shots come from the perimeter and your strategy is brendan gallagher to stand in front of the net to deflect pucks or rebounds, that only gets you so far.

look at that the last game where they lost to the leafs.
notice the skilled goals matthews scored. who on the habs can score like that?

They remind me a bit of the Hurricanes when they had less talent than they have now (before Aho, Svech etc) but were always near the top of the League in Corsi and people would predict they'd be a good team the next season.
 

BlackAdam

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May 5, 2013
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They remind me a bit of the Hurricanes when they had less talent than they have now (before Aho, Svech etc) but were always near the top of the League in Corsi and people would predict they'd be a good team the next season.
it's like with ilya mikahev. he can get numerous opportunities to score but he doesn't have the skill the capitalize off those high scoring chances. now imagine a team of ilya mikahev's. that's what the habs are.
 
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hockeeyyy

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Sep 29, 2017
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Not enough shooting talent to offset their lack of skill. They can skate and run in circles all day, but that only works against bad teams.
 

Theodore450

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Sep 10, 2013
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it's like with ilya mikahev. he can get numerous opportunities to score but he doesn't have the skill the capitalize off those high scoring chances. now imagine a team of ilya mikahev's. that's what the habs are.
Soup wouldn’t crack the 3rd line on the habs so that’s misleading
 

jetsforever

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Dec 14, 2013
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I remember Armia was pretty good at that too back in Winnipeg.
Montreal is lacking high-skill guys though.
 

BlackAdam

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May 5, 2013
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Soup wouldn’t crack the 3rd line on the habs so that’s misleading
i meant that a majority of the habs are not elite shooters and the high possession stats is misleading to how efficient they are.
the ilya mikahev comparison was an example of how offensive incompetent they are
 

Theodore450

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Sep 10, 2013
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i meant that a majority of the habs are not elite shooters and the high possession stats is misleading to how efficient they are.
the ilya mikahev comparison was an example of how offensive incompetent they are
I understand your analogy, but it’s a gross oversimplification of the issue. The forwards are not all lehkonen, the real issue is the forced use of the point with D not suitable for quick creative plays. Your comparisons make it look like all the habs forwards only know how to go down the ice on a transition and shoot
 

Hostile Offer

Artist formerly known as Eagle Peninsula
Jun 17, 2017
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I'm a bit perplexed by how good the Canadiens are when it comes to stats like SAT% and SAT% close. I believe they had very good possession stats last season as well.

Yet the team seems to be middling overall (going back three seasons, not just this year) and has no real game-breaking talent (in the aftermath of Subban and Pacioretty). Don't get me wrong: The roster certainly has some talent, but it lacks anyone I would call a star forward.

In particular, I don't really understand how Danault and Gallagher are consistently highly dominant possession players. Danault is a good checker and has some talent, but he's not in the tier of guys like prime Kopitar when it comes to offensive talent (he's a poor man's ROR at best). Gallagher is a legit first line forward and elite net-front presence, but he doesn't seem too creative and isn't the most dynamic forward. Does their top line play a particular system that emphasizes getting the puck on net at every opportunity or something? What gives?

Habs are consistently one of the top teams regarding 5 on 5 play and players like Danault and Gallagher are really good at pushing the play towards the other team's defensive zone which results in them being an analytics darling. And they actually score a lot in 5 on 5 play as well so it makes sense. It's the special teams and sometimes goaltending that have been killing them, things that aren't necessarily related to possession stats. Lack of talent, poor special teams coaching, the regression of Carey Price, lots of issues that factor into that. But it's easy to see why the analytics seem to love the Habs and they're not entirely wrong to think that, but the Habs also highlight the issues with analytics entirely based on possession.
 
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Just Linda

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Feb 24, 2018
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Reminds me of Bill Peters teams.

The flaw in possession numbers is that they evaluate shots and shot distance but not shot danger. Habs aren't getting screened shots, the aren't getting shooter shots. They control the perimeter but not the inside.
 

jcs0218

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Apr 20, 2018
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Reminds me of Bill Peters teams.

The flaw in possession numbers is that they evaluate shots and shot distance but not shot danger. Habs aren't getting screened shots, the aren't getting shooter shots. They control the perimeter but not the inside.
Possession numbers also don't evaluate individual goal-scoring talent.

You can control the possession game, shot totals, and scoring chances all you like. But you won't be a successful team if you have a bunch of stone-hands playing up front.
 

MNRube

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Oct 20, 2013
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From what I understand the Habs aren’t getting great goaltending. Also, it’s not an elite roster. It’s a very deep lineup with the ability to come at you with 3 lines that can score and defend. I can see them carrying play more often than not, especially in the North where the other teams lack depth but have elite scorers on their top lines.
 

nilan30

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Jan 14, 2004
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Last 40 goal scorer was in like 1994. Last 100 point guy 1986 ish. Last 80 point guy
2008. There’s just no recent history of elite offensive talent on this team and I’m not sure what’ll change that.
 

BlackAdam

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May 5, 2013
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Last 40 goal scorer was in like 1994. Last 100 point guy 1986 ish. Last 80 point guy
2008. There’s just no recent history of elite offensive talent on this team and I’m not sure what’ll change that.

they picked the worse years to have their bad seasons.
aside from the horrendous track record at drafting in the late first round picks, their early ones haven't been successful either. Galchenyuk showed early promise but flamed out from poor development, kotkaniemi hasn't shown a level of consistency where he can be shown to be a dynamic number 1 center. they went with need instead of the best player available when they should have taken brady tkachuk.
it makes it even more ridiculous that the best habs player taken in the first round since carey price is mikhail sergachev. and even before carey price, their drafting was piss poor.
 

Conor McDavitt

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Oct 17, 2017
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The Canadiens have a lot of good fundamental qualities to their team, probably just lacking a bit of high-end offensive talent.
 

pabst blue ribbon

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Oct 26, 2015
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I'm a bit perplexed by how good the Canadiens are when it comes to stats like SAT% and SAT% close. I believe they had very good possession stats last season as well.

Yet the team seems to be middling overall (going back three seasons, not just this year) and has no real game-breaking talent (in the aftermath of Subban and Pacioretty). Don't get me wrong: The roster certainly has some talent, but it lacks anyone I would call a star forward.

In particular, I don't really understand how Danault and Gallagher are consistently highly dominant possession players. Danault is a good checker and has some talent, but he's not in the tier of guys like prime Kopitar when it comes to offensive talent (he's a poor man's ROR at best). Gallagher is a legit first line forward and elite net-front presence, but he doesn't seem too creative and isn't the most dynamic forward. Does their top line play a particular system that emphasizes getting the puck on net at every opportunity or something? What gives?
The Canadiens are tied for first in 5v5 goal differential and rank 4th in the league amongst teams in 5v5 scoring on a per minute basis (first in their division)

I think going 0-5 in OT is the much bigger problem for the Habs
 
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Gamimenos

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Apr 28, 2009
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At no point in the game is individual talent more important than in 3v3 OT. And our record there is 0-5. This tells you all you need.
 

Maffew

Born. Raised. Habs. Always.
May 14, 2010
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At no point in the game is individual talent more important than in 3v3 OT. And our record there is 0-5. This tells you all you need.
Bingo. The controlled play and the push into the offensive zone at 5v5 is some of the best, but strategies depend on effort to carry them and talent to capitalize, and the latter is the biggest need for this team. The presence of players who are that much better than everyone else help mask a chunk of any team's troubles. Carey is proof of that, and the Habs' troubles right now are that there aren't any superstar skaters to help with the lack of goal-scoring. The goaltending isn't masking defensive lapses very well this season. It all adds up to the product we are seeing on the ice right now, bro.
 

Hostile Offer

Artist formerly known as Eagle Peninsula
Jun 17, 2017
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they picked the worse years to have their bad seasons.
aside from the horrendous track record at drafting in the late first round picks, their early ones haven't been successful either. Galchenyuk showed early promise but flamed out from poor development, kotkaniemi hasn't shown a level of consistency where he can be shown to be a dynamic number 1 center. they went with need instead of the best player available when they should have taken brady tkachuk.
it makes it even more ridiculous that the best habs player taken in the first round since carey price is mikhail sergachev. and even before carey price, their drafting was piss poor.

While there's a seed of truth in here when it comes to the Habs' lacklustre drafting in the first round, it's not entirely accurate either. The 2018 draft was less than three years ago, the jury is still VERY much out on that one. And Brady Tkachuk wasn't seen as the BPA at the time for the Habs pick, it was Filip Zadina. IIRC Tkachuk was an extremely polarizing prospect especially here on HF where some wouldn't even include him in their top 10 and would tell you how some poor team is going to make a horrible decision and pick him with a top 5 pick for his overrated intangibles or whatever.

Also, Sergachev best Habs 1st round pick since Price? Ever heard of Ryan McDonagh? Max Pacioretty?
 
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