The Canada Thread Part III: Winter is coming edition

[Tad Mikowsky]

seems ridiculous

Your graph sucks at scaling.

 

[discostu]

Ontario Auditor General out with a report today that lays out a bunch of issues with the Ontario covid response. Chief among the criticisms is the lack of a a clear medical voice a the decision tables, but also a general slow reaction time when needed.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toro...ting-case-management-auditor-report-1.5814949

 

[SensibleGuy]

Your graph sucks at scaling.

I'm not sure why? Can you present a scale that paints a different picture? Wouldn't every scale show the same relative relationship between cases rising bigtime while deaths are increasing at a much lower rate?

 

[BudRobinson53]

Ontario Auditor General out with a report today that lays out a bunch of issues with the Ontario covid response. Chief among the criticisms is the lack of a a clear medical voice a the decision tables, but also a general slow reaction time when needed.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toro...ting-case-management-auditor-report-1.5814949

Some pretty petty and harsh criticism - everyone could have done better, but for a pandemic like this, it could have also been a lot worse. Ultimately, there is China, Vietnam, Australia, New Zealand to look at, heck even the Atlantic bubble and then there is everyone else. But in Ontario, where you have 7-8 million people within a short drive of each other, imaginary districts - it could be and likely should be much worse.

Now, Alberta's AG on the other hand.....that should be interesting!

 

[MXD]

which province should Alberta look at emulating then?

Litterally every other province except Manitoba.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Litterally every other province except Manitoba.

BC had a record number of cases yesterday, Ontario is still bad and Manitoba is lockdown for 13 days and still seeing huge cases
on top of record setting cases in places like California and Europe

basically, everywhere is bad

 

[MXD]

BC had a record number of cases yesterday, Ontario is still bad and Manitoba is lockdown for 13 days and still seeing huge cases
on top of record setting cases in places like California and Europe

basically, everywhere is bad

But better.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

But better.

better how? setting case records isn't better

Alberta has a low death rate compared to Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba and has the highest test rates in the country

 

[Fatass]

BC had a record number of cases yesterday, Ontario is still bad and Manitoba is lockdown for 13 days and still seeing huge cases
on top of record setting cases in places like California and Europe

basically, everywhere is bad

Lots of our cases in BC are in Care Homes again too. I think it’s 60 facilities now have outbreaks. For whatever reasons, we just don’t seem to be able to protect the elderly in those homes. I think one reason might still be because workers (Care Aides, Nurses, and Doctors) are working in several facilities?

 

[GretzkytoKurri9917]

 

[discostu]

Some pretty petty and harsh criticism - everyone could have done better, but for a pandemic like this, it could have also been a lot worse. Ultimately, there is China, Vietnam, Australia, New Zealand to look at, heck even the Atlantic bubble and then there is everyone else. But in Ontario, where you have 7-8 million people within a short drive of each other, imaginary districts - it could be and likely should be much worse.

Now, Alberta's AG on the other hand.....that should be interesting!

Given how Ford has generally operated with a lack of transparency here, I think the criticisms here are valid.

And while results may be better than elsewhere, the value in a report like this is to get a comprehensive view of what's actually been happening, and a chance to understand how we've gotten here.

In an ideal world, an audit isn't about assigning blame, but, to be able to identify what worked and what didn't, so improvements can be made. That would hopefully result in Ford adjusting his decision tables for better input from medical experts and have greater transparency of key decisions, but, given that Ford and Elliot's response has been to attack the AG, I'm not too optimistic.

All that said, I'm actually pleasantly surprised how Ontario's cases have really slowed their growth. If you asked me two months ago where we'd be, I would have sworn we'd be hitting over 2k regularly. There's probably some lessons learned from Ontario that could be leveraged elsewhere, but, it requires better data that's we have, which has been part of the problem.

 

[canucksfan]

BCs high numbers yesterday was from data errors in the previous days. Would have been 709.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

Our premier said our cases are high due to the amount of testing.

I can’t make this shit up.

 

[canucksfan]

Our premier said our cases are high due to the amount of testing.

I can’t make this shit up.

So stop testing and there’d be no cases!

 

[Beau Knows]

So stop testing and there’d be no cases!

Stop the count!

 

[Fatass]

BCs high numbers yesterday was from data errors in the previous days. Would have been 709.

700 plus again today. What’s even more troubling is we are up to outbreaks in 63 old folks’ homes.

 

[canucksfan]

700 plus again today. What’s even more troubling is we are up to outbreaks in 63 old folks’ homes.

Hospitalizations are rising rapidly too.

 

[GreytWun]

Our premier said our cases are high due to the amount of testing.

I can’t make this shit up.

Ontario tests more than the entire country combined daily. Alberta still has the same if not more cases. That excuse sucks.

 

[Very Stable Genius]

Stop the count!

Its RIGGED!

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Ontario tests more than the entire country combined daily. Alberta still has the same if not more cases. That excuse sucks.

How many tests a day does Ontario perform?

Alberta's leadership has continually talked about how they lead in testing per capita. I’m not sure if that’s true or not.

 

[Korpse]

How many tests a day does Ontario perform?

Alberta's leadership has continually talked about how they lead in testing per capita. I’m not sure if that’s true or not.

Very likely it's true on a per capita basis, that said Kenney's talking points are garbage. Alberta's cases aren't high because there is a lot of testing, with a positivity rate of 8.1% it's because he reacted far too late. The number of daily cases tripled from OCT 1 to OCT 31. He sat idly by while Albertans were begging for him to take action. At least when Trump made the same suggestions, there had actually been an increase in testing. That has not been the case in Alberta, there is just more infected.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Very likely it's true on a per capita basis, that said Kenney's talking points are garbage. Alberta's cases aren't high because there is a lot of testing, with a positivity rate of 8.1% it's because he reacted far too late. The number of daily cases tripled from OCT 1 to OCT 31. He sat idly by while Albertans were begging for him to take action. At least when Trump made the same suggestions, there had actually been an increase in testing. That has not been the case in Alberta, there is just more infected.

I’m not sure about Kenney’s talking points were, but Alberta as a province has done a lot of testing.

I somewhat disagree that Kenney has let things go to late. I’m sure I’ll get attacked for saying that but I think his timing is ok. Listening to Dr Hinshaw talk our hospitals out here aren’t doing terribly.

 

[Korpse]

I’m not sure about Kenney’s talking points were, but Alberta as a province has done a lot of testing.

I somewhat disagree that Kenney has let things go to late. I’m sure I’ll get attacked for saying that but I think his timing is ok. Listening to Dr Hinshaw talk our hospitals out here aren’t doing terribly.

I don't know, there was an obvious increase in cases happening in October, and it was pretty clear which direction we were headed before the month ended. Contact tracing became overwhelmed in early November and it took three more weeks before anything was done. We went from 146 cases on Oct 1 to 1112 on Nov 24. Of course Christmas is right around the corner as well, and while the current restrictions are for only 3 weeks. That isn't enough time for the province to reach it's desired result from these restriction. Hospitalizations and ICU admissions will continue to rise over these next three weeks, restrictions wills remain in place and many families will be closing out an already shitty year separated.

 

[JimtheMagicalHamster]

I'm not sure why? Can you present a scale that paints a different picture? Wouldn't every scale show the same relative relationship between cases rising bigtime while deaths are increasing at a much lower rate?

The difference between the data points is so large that using the same scale makes it impossible to see any changes in the smaller data series.

I have no idea where he got his numbers, but here's an example using a very basic table that we'll callApples and Oranges.

	M1	M2	M3	M4	M5	M6	M7	M8	M9	M10
Apples	500	1025	2101	4308	8831	18103	37110	76076	155956	319709
Oranges	13	26	53	108	221	453	928	1902	3899	7993

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Since we're talking about cumulative numbers, Apples increase by 105% every month. Oranges are always 2.5% of apples, each and every month. If you plot it using just a single axis, you get this:
View media item 8205
If you look at that without proper context, you'd think that Apples were skyrocketing and Oranges were increasing slowly. In reality, it is the same percentage of Oranges to Apples as there always has been. You can see the relationship if you use dual axes or a logarithmic scale, either of which would be a more accurate way of showing the relationship between the two.

View media item 8206View media item 8207

 

[I am toxic]

Some pretty petty and harsh criticism - everyone could have done better, but for a pandemic like this, it could have also been a lot worse. Ultimately, there is China, Vietnam, Australia, New Zealand to look at, heck even the Atlantic bubble and then there is everyone else. But in Ontario, where you have 7-8 million people within a short drive of each other, imaginary districts - it could be and likely should be much worse.

Now, Alberta's AG on the other hand.....that should be interesting!

There is Taiwan to look at, then everyone else.