The Buffalo Sabres: Worst team since....?

[MagnumForce2]

The Buffalo Sabres: Worst team since....?

Gordon Bombay took over District 5 and turned them into the Mighty Ducks

 

[omglolnub]

Sabretooth thoughts/comments:

• GA worse than expected for second straight set of games - this set tied games 16-20 for worst of the season in GA pace
• Differential was worse than expected by largest margin season to date - GF was basically as expected
• Next 5 games after the olympic break are another tough set - expect the poor performance to continue up to and past the trade deadline
• Looking further ahead, games 63-72 will be the easiest stretch of our schedule the rest of the way - don't be fooled into thinking it means the team is starting another Buffatroll late season meaningless push
• Not exactly sure how any trade deadline deals will effect my projections going forward, but I can only imagine the team will be worse after the deadline

Not to derail this neat thread, but is bad that I read this information with the voice of GLaDOS?

 

[brian_griffin]

I dont remember teams getting 1 pt even if they lost in the 5 min OT. You had to actually make it through OT to get the 1 pt tie?

So any game we lost in OT this year would be an L not a T. The only games that would be 1 pt for T would be any game that went to SO.

By "old points scoring" I mean '74-75.

In '74-75 points scoring, any game not won or lost in regulation was a tie. There was no (regular season) overtime of any kind. All games were 60 minute, 2 point-affairs.

(And yes, I am that old.)

Bottom line - BUF is not historically bad as the '74-75 Caps.

 

[Sabretooth]

I don't know how you get your numbers.
I calculate the '13-14 Sabres record under the '74-75 points system as 7-34-16=30pts.

Under the old points system, any '13-14 game which went to OT / SO would have been a tie in '74-75.

By "old points scoring" I mean '74-75.

In '74-75 points scoring, any game not won or lost in regulation was a tie. There was no (regular season) overtime of any kind. All games were 60 minute, 2 point-affairs.

(And yes, I am that old.)

Bottom line - BUF is not historically bad as the '74-75 Caps.

I'm not quite that old so I had to look up what the OT rules were back then. I used this site which tracks rule changes throughout the years. I thought there was an OT period in the 70's but I missed the line where OT was discontinued in the 40's due to war-time restrictions, and wasn't reinstated again until the 80's. Thanks for the correction.

The fact that the sabres are even in the same discussion as the 74-75 caps is pretty remarkable in and of itself. Pretty sad the sabres have pretty much regressed back to expansion level performance.

 

[oldgoalie]

I'm not quite that old so I had to look up what the OT rules were back then. I used this site which tracks rule changes throughout the years. I thought there was an OT period in the 70's but I missed the line where OT was discontinued in the 40's due to war-time restrictions, and wasn't reinstated again until the 80's. Thanks for the correction.

The fact that the sabres are even in the same discussion as the 74-75 caps is pretty remarkable in and of itself. Pretty sad the sabres have pretty much regressed back to expansion level performance.

They were in the Cup finals in 74-75. I'd give my left nut for that sort of expansion team performance...

 

[TossinSauce]

This video is hysterical.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_L9ALGdgHbw&feature=youtu.be

 

[Sabretooth]

Current Totals after 62 games:

• Wins: 19 (+4)
• ROW: 13 (+4)
• Points: 46 (+8)
• GF: 127 (+17) - 6 from shoot-out
• GA: 184 (+12) - 4 from shoot-out

82-Game Projection/Extrapolation (based on above):

• Wins: 25.1 (+3.5)
• ROW: 17.2 (+4.3)
• Points: 60.8 (+6.1)
• GF: 168.0 (+9.8)
• GA: 243.4 (-4.0)

Last 5 Games:

• Average Opp Points Today: 75.6
• GF (Actual - Predicted): 17 - 8.1
• GA (Actual - Predicted): 12 - 14.1
• Diff (Actual - Predicted): (+5) - (-6.0)
• Points (Actual - Predicted): 8 - 3.2

Next 5 Games:

• Average Opp Points Today: 64.6
• GF (Predicted): 14.6
• GA (Predicted): 15.1
• Diff (Predicted): -0.5
• Points (Predicted): 4.8

82-Game Projection/Extrapolation (based on opponent strength):

• GF (remaining - total): 46.9 - 173.9 (+9.4)
• GA (remaining - total): 56.8 - 240.8 (-2.6)
• Points (remaining - total): 17.1 - 63.1 (+5.1)

Sabretooth thoughts/comments:

• Last 5 games made my projections look silly - way surpassed expectations
• Greatest 5-game goal differential of the season
• Greatest 5-game point total of the season
• Fewest goals allowed in a 5-game set this season - not most goals scored however
• Opponent strength based points projection may now be off (too high) due to past 5 games - may consider the last set an outlier depending on team performance going forward
• games 63-72 are the easiest stretch the rest of the way - 73-82 are a tougher stretch to end the season

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

If they start winning and get past Edm, FL, and Cal I'm going to give up all hope. I might start running through the woods until a spaceship takes me away.

 

[sabres4ever]

If they start winning and get past Edm, FL, and Cal I'm going to give up all hope. I might start running through the woods until a spaceship takes me away.

We have a whole lot of good teams coming our way the rest of the season. No reason to think we'll streak on a west coast trip, or take down the likes of the Blues, Blackhawks, or Red Wings suddenly.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Why can't we beat the Bruins, Hawks or Wings? We just beat Boston,San Jose and Tampa which are 3 of the best teams in the league. This is ridiculous, they are going to miss out on Reinhart and Ekblad. Typical Enroth is garbage the last two seasons and all of a sudden he is the reincarnation of Hasek

 

[sabres4ever]

We can beat any team on any given night. But we won't.

 

[B U F F A L O]

If they start winning and get past Edm, FL, and Cal I'm going to give up all hope. I might start running through the woods until a spaceship takes me away.

Beam me up, Scotty!

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Beam me up, Scotty!

That Star Trek stuff is fake though. If you saw Communion you know what's real, and that it always happens in a wooded area.

 

[B U F F A L O]

That Star Trek stuff is fake though. If you saw Communion you know what's real, and that it always happens in a wooded area.

Im a Star Wars > Star Trek guy. I was just using the phrase for pop-culture reference... And now I suddenly realized you werent being sarcastic but serious

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Im a Star Wars > Star Trek guy. I was just using the phrase for pop-culture reference... And now I suddenly realized you werent being sarcastic but serious

I just think people should know which sci-fi movies are fake and which ones are real.

So years ago I walked into the ER with my partner to transport a crazy dude to the mental health place. The older, stuffy doctor stopped us before we got to the room to warn us that the guy was naked and jumping up and down from the floor to the bed without using his hands, and yelling about being in The Matrix (as if we'd never dealt with that kind of thing before).

Without hesitation I gave a serious look and asked him, "Do you mean he thinks he's in the movie or the real matrix?". The doctor just looked at me and didn't know what to say...while my partner tried to stifle his laughter.

 

[brian_griffin]

I just think people should know which sci-fi movies are fake and which ones are real.

So years ago I walked into the ER with my partner to transport a crazy dude to the mental health place. The older, stuffy doctor stopped us before we got to the room to warn us that the guy was naked and jumping up and down from the floor to the bed without using his hands, and yelling about being in The Matrix (as if we'd never dealt with that kind of thing before).

Without hesitation I gave a serious look and asked him, "Do you mean he thinks he's in the movie or the real matrix?". The doctor just looked at me and didn't know what to say...while my partner tried to stifle his laughter.

OT: The olympic speed skating "team pursuit" uniforms reminded me of Tron. In particular, whomever was wearing the orange ones - Netherlands or Denmark.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

OT: The olympic speed skating "team pursuit" uniforms reminded me of Tron. In particular, whomever was wearing the orange ones - Netherlands or Denmark.

Not sure why they don't give those guys laser guns.

BTW, sarcasm is serious business. It doesn't work unless you're serious about it. No emoticons from me...EVER!

 

[Sabretooth]

Current Totals after 67 games:

• Wins: 19 (+0)
• ROW: 13 (+0)
• Points: 46 (+0)
• GF: 132 (+5) - 6 from shoot-out
• GA: 202 (+18) - 4 from shoot-out

82-Game Projection/Extrapolation (based on above):

• Wins: 23.3 (-1.8)
• ROW: 15.9 (-1.3)
• Points: 56.3 (-4.5)
• GF: 161.6 (-6.4)
• GA: 247.2 (+3.8)

Last 5 Games:

• Average Opp Points Today: 69.2
• GF (Actual - Predicted): 5 - 9.7
• GA (Actual - Predicted): 18 - 14.1
• Diff (Actual - Predicted): (-13) - (-4.5)
• Points (Actual - Predicted): 0 - 5.8

Next 5 Games:

• Average Opp Points Today: 70.4
• GF (Predicted): 9.5
• GA (Predicted): 13.9
• Diff (Predicted): -4.3
• Points (Predicted): 5.5

82-Game Projection/Extrapolation (based on opponent strength):

• GF (remaining - total): 27.8 - 159.8 (-14.1)
• GA (remaining - total): 41.0 - 243.0 (+2.2)
• Points (remaining - total): 11.9 - 57.9 (-5.2)

Sabretooth thoughts/comments:

• Last 5 games made my projections look silly - undershot expectations as badly as expectations were overshot the set prior
• Worst 5-game goal differential of the season
• First 5 game set we failed to record a single point
• Fewest goals scored in a 5-game set this season
• All of this especially extraordinary considering the opponents in the last 5-game set have the lowest average point total in a set based on points today - this should have been one of the easiest sets of opponents of the season.
• games 68-72 are the easiest stretch the rest of the way - 73-82 are a tougher stretch to end the season
• My OPP strength projections basically are shot to hell at this point because the last 10 games were so far off compared to past performance, but this nightmare season is almost over...

 

[Sabretooth]

Current Projections:

Wins: 16.4
Points: 36.1
Goals: 144.3

Recent Season Worsts:
2013, '12, '11, '10, '09, '08
Wins: 25.6 (15) (FLA), 29 (Cbus), 25 (EDM), 27 (EDM), 24 (TBL), 31 (TBL)
Points: 61.5 (36) (FLA), 65 (Cbus), 62 (EDM), 62 (EDM), 61 (NYI), 71 (TBL, LAK)
Goals: 189.6 (111) (NASH), 177 (Minn), 174 (NJD), 204 (CGY), 199 (COL), 193 (Cbus)

Worst since (to answer the thread title Q):
1999-2000 Thrashers? 39 points, 14 Wins, 170 goals...
91-96 Senators? 96: 41-18-191... 95: 23-9-117 in 48 games (39-15-199)... 94: 37-14-201 in 84 games... 93: 24-10-202 in 84 games
91-93 SJS? 93: 24-11-218 in 84 games... 92: 39-17-219 in 84...
89-90 Nordiques? 31-12-240

Fewest Goals since?
2002 CBJ 164?
2001 MIN 168?
1998 TBL 151?
1954 Blackhawks 133 in 70 games? (156 in 82...)


In short, Sabres are on pace to be really, really, really, bad

So now that we're at the end of the season, how bad were we? I stopped tracking stats like I was, but I wanted to revisit the original question this thread posed. The sabres are the worst team since...

In terms of wins/points, we are at 21-50-9 wins with 2 games to play so theoretically we could hit 23 wins. We are also at 51 points with a potential max of 55.

Working backwards, the 06-07 flyers finished 22-48-12 for 56 points. Though we could potentially pass them in wins, we won't pass them in points, so we're worse than that. The 05-06 Blues are another close team, 21-46-15 for 57 points. Same story, won't pass in points. that gets us back to the lockout that canceled the 04-05 season without finding a team worse than this year's sabres.

From there it gets a little tricky because the points system was a bit different. There was a W-L-T-OTL system. Using that system, this year's sabres would be 14-50-11-5 for 44pts. Yikes. Perhaps the 01-02 Thrashers are the next worst team than us? 19-47-11-5 (W-L-T-OTL) for 54 points - nope. How about the 00-01 Islanders (21-51-7-3 52pts)? Still no...

Ah! here we go. The 1999-2000 EXPANSION Atlanta Thrashers. 14-57-7-4 for 39pts. The first team clearly worse than this year's Sabres in terms of wins/points. So there's the answer. This year's sabres are the worst team since the 1999-2000 expansion Atlanta Thrashers. I'm not going to look back further, but I would bet that this year's sabres could possibly end up being the worst non-expansion team in the history of the league.

In terms of goal scoring, we may just be the worst offensive team ever. We are at 146 goals (non-shootout) after 80 games played. The 97-98 TBL scored 151 goals, so unless we score 5+ in the final 2 games, we will be the worst in at least 17 years. After that... umm

Well the 67-68 Oakland Seals scored 153 goals but in just 74 games, and before that we're into the original 6 era. The 55-56 Maple Leafs scored 153 goals in 70 games. Hell we haven't yet passed the 54-55 Maple Leafs total of 147 goals in 70 games. Then of course there is the all time record worst of 133 goals in 70 games by the 53-54 Blackhawks. We have passed that in absolute terms. However, here is how we currently rank in terms of goals per game:

53-54 Blackhawks: 1.900 gpg
97-98 Lightning: 1.841 gpg
13-14 Sabres: 1.825 gpg

That means if we don't score 5 or more goals in the final 2 games, then as far as I'm concerned this year's sabres should be considered the worst offensive production team in the history of the league. Even thats not entirely true, as a quick scan through the pre-war era turned up some pretty bad teams as well here and there (for example, the 24-25 Bruins scored just 49 goals in 30 games, or 1.633 gpg) - but I'm not sure how relevant that era of the NHL really is.

 

[Husko]

So now that we're at the end of the season, how bad were we? I stopped tracking stats like I was, but I wanted to revisit the original question this thread posed. The sabres are the worst team since...

In terms of wins/points, we are at 21-50-9 wins with 2 games to play so theoretically we could hit 23 wins. We are also at 51 points with a potential max of 55.

Working backwards, the 06-07 flyers finished 22-48-12 for 56 points. Though we could potentially pass them in wins, we won't pass them in points, so we're worse than that. The 05-06 Blues are another close team, 21-46-15 for 57 points. Same story, won't pass in points. that gets us back to the lockout that canceled the 04-05 season without finding a team worse than this year's sabres.

From there it gets a little tricky because the points system was a bit different. There was a W-L-T-OTL system. Using that system, this year's sabres would be 14-50-11-5 for 44pts. Yikes. Perhaps the 01-02 Thrashers are the next worst team than us? 19-47-11-5 (W-L-T-OTL) for 54 points - nope. How about the 00-01 Islanders (21-51-7-3 52pts)? Still no...

Ah! here we go. The 1999-2000 EXPANSION Atlanta Thrashers. 14-57-7-4 for 39pts. The first team clearly worse than this year's Sabres in terms of wins/points. So there's the answer. This year's sabres are the worst team since the 1999-2000 expansion Atlanta Thrashers. I'm not going to look back further, but I would bet that this year's sabres could possibly end up being the worst non-expansion team in the history of the league.

In terms of goal scoring, we may just be the worst offensive team ever. We are at 146 goals (non-shootout) after 80 games played. The 97-98 TBL scored 151 goals, so unless we score 5+ in the final 2 games, we will be the worst in at least 17 years. After that... umm

Well the 67-68 Oakland Seals scored 153 goals but in just 74 games, and before that we're into the original 6 era. The 55-56 Maple Leafs scored 153 goals in 70 games. Hell we haven't yet passed the 54-55 Maple Leafs total of 147 goals in 70 games. Then of course there is the all time record worst of 133 goals in 70 games by the 53-54 Blackhawks. We have passed that in absolute terms. However, here is how we currently rank in terms of goals per game:

53-54 Blackhawks: 1.900 gpg
97-98 Lightning: 1.841 gpg
13-14 Sabres: 1.825 gpg

That means if we don't score 5 or more goals in the final 2 games, then as far as I'm concerned this year's sabres should be considered the worst offensive production team in the history of the league. Even thats not entirely true, as a quick scan through the pre-war era turned up some pretty bad teams as well here and there (for example, the 24-25 Bruins scored just 49 goals in 30 games, or 1.633 gpg) - but I'm not sure how relevant that era of the NHL really is.

What if you take away out shootout wins.....

 

[Sabretooth]

So now that we're at the end of the season, how bad were we? I stopped tracking stats like I was, but I wanted to revisit the original question this thread posed. The sabres are the worst team since...

In terms of wins/points, we are at 21-50-9 wins with 2 games to play so theoretically we could hit 23 wins. We are also at 51 points with a potential max of 55.

Working backwards, the 06-07 flyers finished 22-48-12 for 56 points. Though we could potentially pass them in wins, we won't pass them in points, so we're worse than that. The 05-06 Blues are another close team, 21-46-15 for 57 points. Same story, won't pass in points. that gets us back to the lockout that canceled the 04-05 season without finding a team worse than this year's sabres.

From there it gets a little tricky because the points system was a bit different. There was a W-L-T-OTL system. Using that system, this year's sabres would be 14-50-11-5 for 44pts. Yikes. Perhaps the 01-02 Thrashers are the next worst team than us? 19-47-11-5 (W-L-T-OTL) for 54 points - nope. How about the 00-01 Islanders (21-51-7-3 52pts)? Still no...

Ah! here we go. The 1999-2000 EXPANSION Atlanta Thrashers. 14-57-7-4 for 39pts. The first team clearly worse than this year's Sabres in terms of wins/points. So there's the answer. This year's sabres are the worst team since the 1999-2000 expansion Atlanta Thrashers. I'm not going to look back further, but I would bet that this year's sabres could possibly end up being the worst non-expansion team in the history of the league.

In terms of goal scoring, we may just be the worst offensive team ever. We are at 146 goals (non-shootout) after 80 games played. The 97-98 TBL scored 151 goals, so unless we score 5+ in the final 2 games, we will be the worst in at least 17 years. After that... umm

Well the 67-68 Oakland Seals scored 153 goals but in just 74 games, and before that we're into the original 6 era. The 55-56 Maple Leafs scored 153 goals in 70 games. Hell we haven't yet passed the 54-55 Maple Leafs total of 147 goals in 70 games. Then of course there is the all time record worst of 133 goals in 70 games by the 53-54 Blackhawks. We have passed that in absolute terms. However, here is how we currently rank in terms of goals per game:

53-54 Blackhawks: 1.900 gpg
97-98 Lightning: 1.841 gpg
13-14 Sabres: 1.825 gpg

That means if we don't score 5 or more goals in the final 2 games, then as far as I'm concerned this year's sabres should be considered the worst offensive production team in the history of the league. Even thats not entirely true, as a quick scan through the pre-war era turned up some pretty bad teams as well here and there (for example, the 24-25 Bruins scored just 49 goals in 30 games, or 1.633 gpg) - but I'm not sure how relevant that era of the NHL really is.

What if you take away out shootout wins.....

I did, see the Blue section

 

[oldgoalie]

no doubt about it. this team sucks.
only one way to go, and that's up.
I just hope it doesn't take for ****ing ever.

 

[Sinter Klaas]

Thanks for the research throughout the year.

And I can echo the sentiment that there is only 1 place to go, up. As strange as it sounds, I actually didn't think the suffering was that bad this season, considering the Sabres got rid of Rolston, Regier, and brought in Nolan and LaFontaine and also, as many losses that Buffalo has, they were in quite a few games until the very end.

 

[Sabretooth]

Thanks for the research throughout the year.

And I can echo the sentiment that there is only 1 place to go, up. As strange as it sounds, I actually didn't think the suffering was that bad this season, considering the Sabres got rid of Rolston, Regier, and brought in Nolan and LaFontaine and also, as many losses that Buffalo has, they were in quite a few games until the very end.

I think it helps that it wasn't just complete dysfunctional suckage, and it's easy to see light at the end of the tunnel with all the picks and prospects we'll have coming up in 2-3 years. It feels more like this season was a successfully executed plan than turmoil and suffering. Maybe the plan was never to be this bad or finish absolutely last, but we turned the failed core into significant assets to build with including all the picks and prospects we've added this year, not just securing 1st or 2nd overall in the draft. 1 guy can make an impact, but everything else is going to matter a lot in a few years. Its easy to see how this year can be considered a win despite how poorly the on-ice product is/was.

If we're still this bad in 2 years, then we'll know real suffering.

 

[C Note]

In terms of goal scoring, we may just be the worst offensive team ever. We are at 146 goals (non-shootout) after 80 games played. The 97-98 TBL scored 151 goals, so unless we score 5+ in the final 2 games, we will be the worst in at least 17 years. After that... umm

Well the 67-68 Oakland Seals scored 153 goals but in just 74 games, and before that we're into the original 6 era. The 55-56 Maple Leafs scored 153 goals in 70 games. Hell we haven't yet passed the 54-55 Maple Leafs total of 147 goals in 70 games. Then of course there is the all time record worst of 133 goals in 70 games by the 53-54 Blackhawks. We have passed that in absolute terms. However, here is how we currently rank in terms of goals per game:

53-54 Blackhawks: 1.900 gpg
97-98 Lightning: 1.841 gpg
13-14 Sabres: 1.825 gpg

That means if we don't score 5 or more goals in the final 2 games, then as far as I'm concerned this year's sabres should be considered the worst offensive production team in the history of the league. Even thats not entirely true, as a quick scan through the pre-war era turned up some pretty bad teams as well here and there (for example, the 24-25 Bruins scored just 49 goals in 30 games, or 1.633 gpg) - but I'm not sure how relevant that era of the NHL really is.

Last time a team had a GPG as low as ours... 1935-36 Montreal Canadiens. 82 goals in 48 games, 1.71 GPG. But they've won 20 Cups since then, so we'd better clear some space in the rafters!