Player Discussion The Big Fella: Zack MacEwen (MAY 7 - Suspended 1 game)

vanuck

Now with 100% less Benning!
Dec 28, 2009
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As I said at the time, they said a bunch of things that are theoretically correct, but then completely failed to understand that MacEwen was the *opposite* of what they were arguing.

Like, the fact that he was such a bad player at such a low level in his draft year is a point in his favour, not against it, as it speaks to how sharp his development curve had been since then. And it’s the opposite of a Yan-Pavel Laplante, who was a 3rd rounder in his draft year and never improved.

They got locked into a ‘this is just a big overager dominating because he’s old for his level’ stance without looking deeper to see that actually he just got to this level, actually his development curve was through the roof, and actually he had a skillset that really projected to higher levels.

The ideal state that I'd love for our CHL scouting to get to is to be able to weed out the obvious no-hopers who can't produce while allowing for our process to be able to pick up on someone like MacEwen who was overlooked in his draft year but has had a very steep growth curve since then. Essentially, blending the best parts of the eye test and statistical analysis together to extract maximum value from the draft. I don't know if we'll ever get there but to me that's the dream.
 

sting101

Registered User
Feb 8, 2012
15,707
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Canucks Army has some absolutely horrible ill informed takes. The same place that supposedly had sources for Ryan Miller to SJ for the 9th OA. But of course nothing else ever materialized because they either miss heard the info or were just trying to create some ridiculous narrative.

Just brutal
 
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ChuckNorris4Cup

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May 31, 2018
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Yet this guy gets scratched sometimes so players like Loui Eriksson can play... Just mind boggling what Green does with his lineups sometimes, it's obvious this guy can play but hey if he doesn't back check one shift he's in the dog house, but Eriksson can cost the Canucks goals in his own end game after game and continue to play all the time...
 

VanJack

Registered User
Jul 11, 2014
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Benning has already stepped up in interviews, claiming that 'MacEwen is an NHL player'. Which makes Green's decision to sit him in the pressbox all the more baffling. I mean some of the other overpaid, bottom of the lineup forwards have been truly awful this year.

What's also surprising to me is how far, and really how fast big Mac has developed into a player. Drafted as an over-age 20 year old out of the Q...had a solid rookie season in Utica, and then broke out last year with 20 goals and 52 points in the AHL, which is a very good league.

Now in his third pro year, he's transformed himself into a legit third or fourth line winger imo. Could he be the forward version of Tanev and Stecher? Basically 'found money' as un-drafted UFA's.

Imo the Canucks might have another one in Justin Bailey. Bounced around two NHL organizations, but has NHL wheels and is starting to figure it out offensively.

You wonder why the Canucks went out and shelled out $3.5m and a four year contract to a guy like Ferland who basically does the same kind of thing, but with a troubling injury history.
 

Grantham

Registered User
Mar 28, 2017
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He may be able to somewhat replace what they were lacking with ferland's injury. Grit and toughness with some scoring ability. If he continues to play that straight laced abrasive style without trying to be too fancy, he could turn out to be exactly what they were looking for.
exactly what I came here to post. I think this is what we needed out of Ferland, and would have gotten if not for the concussion issues.

I was just imagining our lineup with a Jake, JT, Ferland, and MacEwen in the playoffs. Not enough to challenge Vegas or St.Louis for toughness and grit, but getting there.
 

TomWillander1RD

Registered User
Jul 21, 2004
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I remember being extremely impressed with his highlights of his overage year in the CHL. Glad he's found a spot with the Canucks.
 

Siludin

Registered User
Dec 9, 2010
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I think the game where they had him in the opening lineup was a statement where he "made" the team. He's not going back to Utica.
 

Mr. Canucklehead

Kitimat Canuck
Dec 14, 2002
39,974
29,798
Kitimat, BC
Put bluntly, Jeremy is an idiot

No kidding.

It would be one thing to label the contract a mistake and explain your thoughts rationally and then end up with egg on your face. But this article went out of its way to shred MacEwen and the thought process behind signing him with shock jockey style writing.

Davis comes off looking like a jackass, and deservedly so. Idiot.

Happy for MacEwen - love stories like his where they take the road less travelled to the show. Love reading his family’s stories out there, as well - his mother has some great blog posts detailing their journey.
 

PuckMunchkin

Very Nice, Very Evil!
Dec 13, 2006
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Lapland
Canucks Army has some absolutely horrible ill informed takes. The same place that supposedly had sources for Ryan Miller to SJ for the 9th OA. But of course nothing else ever materialized because they either miss heard the info or were just trying to create some ridiculous narrative.

Just brutal

Sad!
 

Diversification

Registered User
Jun 21, 2019
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As I said at the time, they said a bunch of things that are theoretically correct, but then completely failed to understand that MacEwen was the *opposite* of what they were arguing.

Like, the fact that he was such a bad player at such a low level in his draft year is a point in his favour, not against it, as it speaks to how sharp his development curve had been since then. And it’s the opposite of a Yan-Pavel Laplante, who was a 3rd rounder in his draft year and never improved.

They got locked into a ‘this is just a big overager dominating because he’s old for his level’ stance without looking deeper to see that actually he just got to this level, actually his development curve was through the roof, and actually he had a skillset that really projected to higher levels.

It was a logically consistent argument, one that's been made many times on this board when a prospect fails to hit the ground running in the AHL. It's a truism that if a prospect is going to shine, they should shine early because if they don't, their likelihood of transitioning to the next level is low. Thus, when extrapolating the developmental curve of an OHL overager, the safe bet was he wouldn't amount to anything.

It's fine that they applied this line of reasoning to MacEwan. But sometimes that reasoning is wrong, for whatever reason because prospect development can be non-linear. A similarly bad take was to write off Kole Lind for similar reasoning. Or Burr0ws, or Thomas, St. Louis, Fleury, Boyle or Hull. Not projecting either Lind or MacEwan to come close to any of those players, only that they belong to a long list of players that are exceptions to the rule.

I guess what I'm saying is that the notion that we now have a rational way to find more players like MacEwan by finding late blooming overagers with steep late curves is almost certainly wrong. We made a calculated risky bet and it happened to pay off.
 

VanJack

Registered User
Jul 11, 2014
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I can understand the skepticism whenever an NHL team signs an over-age junior, who's already been bypassed two or three times in the Entry Draft.

And for the most part, the skepticism is warranted. They usually don't work out, and for the most part they get stalled at the ECHL or AHL level at best. Certainly the Canucks have been more active than most teams in signing un-drafted UFA's. Over the years, they've probably signed close to a dozen of these kind of players out of Major Junior or the NCAA.

But the surprising thing to me is how they've worked out. MacEwen and Rafferty will likely turn out as the best of the lot. But Eliot, Teves and Kielly are all playing and contributing at Utica. And even guys like Michael Carcone were used as trading chips for Josh Leivo, and in his case still playing in the AHL with the Belleville Senators.

What really sets some of these un-drafted lottery tickets apart, is how hard they work after they get signed. The version of Zack MacEwen the Canucks signed out of the Q, would have been hard-pressed to carve out career in the AHL. But as we've seen, the dramatic progress he showed in the Q continued on into pro hockey.

And I guess that's what you're banking on....that players who show dramatic improvement into their over-age or NCAA careers, will continue that trajectory once they turn pro. Even if it happens only once or twice in 10 tries, like MacEwen, then it's well worth the risk imo, even if Canucks Army is dubious.
 

MS

1%er
Mar 18, 2002
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Vancouver, BC
It was a logically consistent argument, one that's been made many times on this board when a prospect fails to hit the ground running in the AHL. It's a truism that if a prospect is going to shine, they should shine early because if they don't, their likelihood of transitioning to the next level is low. Thus, when extrapolating the developmental curve of an OHL overager, the safe bet was he wouldn't amount to anything.

It's fine that they applied this line of reasoning to MacEwan. But sometimes that reasoning is wrong, for whatever reason because prospect development can be non-linear. A similarly bad take was to write off Kole Lind for similar reasoning. Or Burr0ws, or Thomas, St. Louis, Fleury, Boyle or Hull. Not projecting either Lind or MacEwan to come close to any of those players, only that they belong to a long list of players that are exceptions to the rule.

I guess what I'm saying is that the notion that we now have a rational way to find more players like MacEwan by finding late blooming overagers with steep late curves is almost certainly wrong. We made a calculated risky bet and it happened to pay off.

The notion that there are overage players who put up impressive numbers because they're big and in the 5th year at the CHL level is totally a thing. Again, Yan-Pavel Laplante was an example of this. A guy like Bryce Kindopp in Everett right now is an example of this.

MacEwan was NOT an example of this, which is where the problem lies and which is what made it such a bad take. In 2014, he was a bad midget player in a bad midget league. But by late 2016, he was one of the top players in the QMJHL. The improvement he'd made in a little over two years was astronomical and he was an example of a player who was a) on an incredibly sharp development curve and b) adjusted to a new level very quickly.

Additionally, his toolset was very, very different from most overage players putting up big numbers. His size/skating/puck skills combo was not the sort of thing you normally see popping up out of nowhere in an overage player. Players who make the sort of plays he was making are always drafted in the first two rounds in their first time eligible.

And this is not hindsight - this is basically exactly what I was saying when the signing was made.

Prospect Info: - The Prospect Thread (Part XXXIII)
 

timw33

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Nov 18, 2007
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The notion that there are overage players who put up impressive numbers because they're big and in the 5th year at the CHL level is totally a thing. Again, Yan-Pavel Laplante was an example of this. A guy like Bryce Kindopp in Everett right now is an example of this.

MacEwan was NOT an example of this, which is where the problem lies and which is what made it such a bad take. In 2014, he was a bad midget player in a bad midget league. But by late 2016, he was one of the top players in the QMJHL. The improvement he'd made in a little over two years was astronomical and he was an example of a player who was a) on an incredibly sharp development curve and b) adjusted to a new level very quickly.

Additionally, his toolset was very, very different from most overage players putting up big numbers. His size/skating/puck skills combo was not the sort of thing you normally see popping up out of nowhere in an overage player. Players who make the sort of plays he was making are always drafted in the first two rounds in their first time eligible.

And this is not hindsight - this is basically exactly what I was saying when the signing was made.

Prospect Info: - The Prospect Thread (Part XXXIII)


I remember how many of us looked favourably on our Dane Fox signing, a guy who yeah, put up a near a goal per game in his last season, but was also in his 6th OHL season and riding shotgun with Connor McDavid. He also skated with cement in his boots.

Just massive differences between signings like Fox and MacEwan.
 

I am toxic

. . . even in small doses
Oct 24, 2014
9,352
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Vancouver
The notion that there are overage players who put up impressive numbers because they're big and in the 5th year at the CHL level is totally a thing. Again, Yan-Pavel Laplante was an example of this. A guy like Bryce Kindopp in Everett right now is an example of this.

MacEwan was NOT an example of this, which is where the problem lies and which is what made it such a bad take. In 2014, he was a bad midget player in a bad midget league. But by late 2016, he was one of the top players in the QMJHL. The improvement he'd made in a little over two years was astronomical and he was an example of a player who was a) on an incredibly sharp development curve and b) adjusted to a new level very quickly.

Additionally, his toolset was very, very different from most overage players putting up big numbers. His size/skating/puck skills combo was not the sort of thing you normally see popping up out of nowhere in an overage player. Players who make the sort of plays he was making are always drafted in the first two rounds in their first time eligible.

And this is not hindsight - this is basically exactly what I was saying when the signing was made.

Prospect Info: - The Prospect Thread (Part XXXIII)

Nailed it. I always appreciate your takes
 

VanJack

Registered User
Jul 11, 2014
21,047
14,079
I guess you can't blame Canucks Army for their skepticism though. For every Zack MacEwen, there's a dozen more guys like Dane Fox, Yan Pavel Laplante, Griffin Molino, Michael Carcone and Evan McEneny.

And despite MacEwen's rapid improvement as an over-ager in the Q, he was miles away from the NHL when he showed up for his first NHL training camp.
 

MS

1%er
Mar 18, 2002
53,367
83,458
Vancouver, BC
I guess you can't blame Canucks Army for their skepticism though. For every Zack MacEwen, there's a dozen more guys like Dane Fox, Yan Pavel Laplante, Griffin Molino, Michael Carcone and Evan McEneny.

And despite MacEwen's rapid improvement as an over-ager in the Q, he was miles away from the NHL when he showed up for his first NHL training camp.

MacEwen was a force in the prospect camps that summer and then walked straight into Utica's top-6 as a rookie and scored at a 40-point pace. It would have been absolutely shocking if he was close to making the NHL team straight out of junior, but he definitely adapted very quickly to pro hockey.

Also McEneny and Carcone were both very solid signings who contributed a lot of organizational utility and not a reason for skepticism.
 

Jyrki21

2021-12-05
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And this is not hindsight - this is basically exactly what I was saying when the signing was made.

Prospect Info: - The Prospect Thread (Part XXXIII)
There is some pretty impressive prescience there, pretty cool to see now. But the cherry on top is that you referred to Gudbranson as a 300+ game veteran (and therefore we knew what he was at that point) even before he famously referenced that benchmark! :laugh:
 

bossram

Registered User
Sep 25, 2013
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Victoria
Benning has already stepped up in interviews, claiming that 'MacEwen is an NHL player'. Which makes Green's decision to sit him in the pressbox all the more baffling. I mean some of the other overpaid, bottom of the lineup forwards have been truly awful this year.

If Mac can't get into the lineup, it's Benning's own doing. He's the one who saddled the team with numerous, unmoveable, massively overpaid bottom-six players. If he wants guys like Mac and Bailey to play, he should rectify his mistakes and waive the likes of Eriksson, Beagle, Sutter, etc.
 
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F A N

Registered User
Aug 12, 2005
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If Mac can't get into the lineup, it's Benning's own doing. He's the one who saddled the team with numerous, unmoveable, massively overpaid bottom-six players. If he wants guys like Mac and Bailey to play, he should rectify his mistakes and waive the likes of Eriksson, Beagle, Sutter, etc.

This makes no sense. Benning is responsible for the roster. Green is responsible for putting together the best lineup. If he chooses to bench the rookie Boeser or MacEwen when they are better than the guys who are playing that's on Green.
 
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