Salary Cap: The Big 3 Contracts Talk

[Erndog]

Barkov, Gaudreau, Monahan, Tarasenko, Scheifele, etc all sign for very reasonable ~5.9-7.5M contracts (the only 7M+ contract being Tarasenko, who was 23 years old when he signed his long-term deal).

Then Peter Chiarelli comes in, and just craps all over the market value with 8.5M for Draisaitl and 12.5M for McDavid. Based on the established RFA market value contracts at the time, I would have expected ~7M for Draisaitl and ~10M for McDavid.

Now we're going to have to pay a bunch extra, just because Chiarelli's a crappy GM (Seguin trade, Lucic contract, Reinhart trade, Eberle trade, etc).

After Chiarelli screwed up the structure, Pastranak signed for 6 x $6.66 and Ehlers signed 7 x $6M.

So two very good comparables for Marner/Nylander signed AFTER Chiapet screwed the pooch.

We should be okay.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I don't think Marner even gets 6. If he has a so-so season I can see a bridge deal perhaps

This. The focus shouldn't be on Marner this off-season. It should be getting Matthews' new deal done and getting the best deal possible for Nylander to use as level against Marner.

Matthews' is probably the easiest since you have the McDavid/Eichel comps. That is unless Matthews' camp plays hardball. But $11.5 mill/8 years seems to be the fairest value based on it. And I don't see Lou Lam going above that for a overpay.

Nylander is trickier. Still too early to tell where to go because this season is important to see how it plays out.

But if you can sign all three for $24-25 million that's manageable for the cap and fair.

 

[egd27]

Grundstrom, Liljegren, Dermott fill 3 holes for about 2.7. You can fill the backup slot for about a million or less. Suddenly you're trying to fill a 2RW, 2 4th liners, 2 extra forwards, 2 top 4 D, and an extra D for 13.7. Kap is probably 1 of those for about 2 million maybe(that's a tough contract to guess). You could bring Gards back for 6 million, and you've got the following lineup with 5.7 in space

Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Marleau - Nylander - Kapanen
Grundstrom - Kadri - Brown
Martin - ______ - ______
______, ______

Rielly - ______
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Dermott - Liljegren
______

Andersen
Backup

Considering we've still got options like Soshnikov, Johnsson, Leivo, Bracco, Brooks, Timashov, Aaltonen, Gauthier, Carrick, Borgman, Rosen, Nielsen the ones that work out will be ready by then then filling most of those spots for cheap shouldn't be too difficult. Rielly's partner may be an issue, but there's also the cap going up twice probably for an extra ~4 million, as well as the possibility of moving Martin and/or Marleau with how their contracts are structured.

I appreciate the fact you have put a lot of thought and effort into this.

While I can't argue with your premise or numbers, I do see that your mock line up would need to have 9 players making around $9M total.

So while the math works, I'm not sold on icing a SC contending team with 9 guys making that little.

I believe some unpopular decisions are going to be necessary in the next couple of years.

 

[Daisy Jane]

This. The focus shouldn't be on Marner this off-season. It should be getting Matthews' new deal done and getting the best deal possible for Nylander to use as level against Marner.

Matthews' is probably the easiest since you have the McDavid/Eichel comps. That is unless Matthews' camp plays hardball. But $11.5 mill/8 years seems to be the fairest value based on it. And I don't see Lou Lam going above that for a overpay.

Nylander is trickier. Still too early to tell where to go because this season is important to see how it plays out.

But if you can sign all three for $24-25 million that's manageable for the cap and fair.

Matthews's agent is Malkin/Crosby's agent. (either both, or one of), but both of them didn't automatically go for the multi-million year deal. both went for 5 at a highish cap hit (Sid for his 8.7 nonsense and malkin for his). so Matthews might do the same. sign 5 then 8.

Depending on how Nylander finishes he'll probably earn Pasta money or a tick underneath., Mitch won't sign at all, unless they really make an offer his camp can't refuses, and i doubt that.

 

[BlueForever75]

22 million for all three.

11 for Matthews per season
6.5 for Nylander per season
4.5 for Marner per season on bridge deal

I don't see Marner making more then Kadri on his first deal. I just don't. Marner gets a bridge deal as Kadri did. Kadri has been averaging 25+ goals and 50+ points per season for the last 3 years. Marner although good needs to earn his contract. He's not there yet. You don't pay 6 million a season for a PP specialist. And that really is what hes been thus far this season.

 

[Field of Dreams]

I looked further back at first RFA contracts for a greater frame of reference and adjusted the cap hits to reflect what they would be today if they were the same percentage of the total cap by this equation:

(Cap hit÷total cap of beginning year)*75m = Adjusted Cap hit

RNH 6.5m*7
Landeskog 6.1m *7
Hall 7m *7
Tavares 6.4m *6
Eberle 7m *6
Seguin 6.7m *6
Duchene 6.5*5

Now not all of these are perfect compatibles to Marner/Nylander and I could have larger sample. The average of this small sample was 8.8% of total current cap.

If the cap next year is 76.5m, based on this average, fair value is theoretically 6.73m.

 

[Raymoondo]

Connor Brown also didn't put up 60 points as a 19 year old.

lol Marner outscored Brown's career totals in his first season

 

[Menzinger]

22 million for all three.

11 for Matthews per season
6.5 for Nylander per season
4.5 for Marner per season on bridge deal

I don't see Marner making more then Kadri on his first deal. I just don't. Marner gets a bridge deal as Kadri did. Kadri has been averaging 25+ goals and 50+ points per season for the last 3 years. Marner although good needs to earn his contract. He's not there yet. You don't pay 6 million a season for a PP specialist. And that really is what hes been thus far this season.

Kadri didn't put up 60 points as a teenager in the league.

Even with having a bit of a slump this year Marner should likely at least hit 50 points. He's definitely getting more than Kadri (who also likely had a one or two off ice issues that cost him a bit of cash at the time of his contract negotiation).

Regardless Marner's agent likely doesn't sign any new deal until the end of the 2018/19 season anyways Which is a whole other year to evaluate him

 

[Menzinger]

Matthews's agent is Malkin/Crosby's agent. (either both, or one of), but both of them didn't automatically go for the multi-million year deal. both went for 5 at a highish cap hit (Sid for his 8.7 nonsense and malkin for his). so Matthews might do the same. sign 5 then 8.

Depending on how Nylander finishes he'll probably earn Pasta money or a tick underneath., Mitch won't sign at all, unless they really make an offer his camp can't refuses, and i doubt that.

Though those Crosby/Malkin RFA deals were ages ago. Hard to name a player with Matthews profile who hasn't signed for a big deal the past couple season.

I think we just have to accept the fact that Matthews will be making bank.

Agreed on Nylander/Marner though.

 

[ToneDog]

If the big 2 of 3 value winning and want to be part of the future of this team they will sign cap friendly deals and Lou is the perfect GM to get this done (especially if we are able to sign JT on July 1st). Matthews on the other hand may have a bit of leverage but he strikes me as somebody that will go through a wall to win.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Though those Crosby/Malkin RFA deals were ages ago. Hard to name a player with Matthews profile who hasn't signed for a big deal the past couple season.

I think we just have to accept the fact that Matthews will be making bank.

Agreed on Nylander/Marner though.

i didn't say he wouldn't.
also - Malkin/Crosby did. (in a time people were still taking long deals) they took short (BIG) deals, and then did longer (BIGger) deals. and as it's the same agent, it could happen with Matthews. the money won't be the issue, but it easily could be shorter than we think it would be.

 

[Mess]

If the big 3 value winning and want to be part of the future of this team they will sign cap friendly deals and Lou is the perfect GM to get this done (especially if we are able to sign JT on July 1st).

Then after doing that, what is preventing the Leafs management from trading them away?

NTC or NMC are only available in contracts when a player reaches UFA eligibilty (age 27 or 7 years service whatever comes first). So the majority of these deals (at least the first 4 years of their new deals they wouldn't be eligible for any no trade protection.

 

[Menzinger]

i didn't say he wouldn't.
also - Malkin/Crosby did. (in a time people were still taking long deals) they took short (BIG) deals, and then did longer (BIGger) deals. and as it's the same agent, it could happen with Matthews. the money won't be the issue, but it easily could be shorter than we think it would be.

Maybe.

And I won't pretend to see the future but at present I can't see any reason for Matthews' agent to ask for anything less than an 8 year deal.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Maybe.

And I won't pretend to see the future but at present I can't see any reason for Matthews' agent to ask for anything less than an 8 year deal.

probably. it would happen. All I am saying is, you would have said the exact same thing with Malkin and Crosby, they'd ask for the league max for all the cap-circumventing years because of what they meant to the Penguins. But they didn't. And Matthews's agent is their agent. so it could be a possibility is all.

 

[Nylanderthal]

As long as they stagger the terms so their UFA deals don't come up at the same time I trust management to get it done. Nylander this summer 7 years 6.75 then Marner 7 at 6.25 and Auston 8 years at 11. That's 24 for the big three and they expire in consecutive years so each year you only have one to deal with and mitigate whatever crunch is ahead then.
Not worried at all about our cap situation coming out of their RFA deals at all.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I appreciate the fact you have put a lot of thought and effort into this.

While I can't argue with your premise or numbers, I do see that your mock line up would need to have 9 players making around $9M total.

So while the math works, I'm not sold on icing a SC contending team with 9 guys making that little.

I believe some unpopular decisions are going to be necessary in the next couple of years.

I don't think that's an abnormal amount of ELC/early RFA talent to be using, especially for a team with a decent amount of your prospects, especially when 8 of the 9 are 4th line/3rd pair/extras/backup. Obviously those guys are important as well, but there's nothing wrong with having young good prospects breaking though into the league in those spots. It's not like those are Tanner Glass and Colton Orr guys. I think a lot of people would be ok with that 3rd pairing here next year, as well as Johnsson and Grundstrom on the team, Soshnikov and Leivo probably deserve to be playing now but they're extras and good extras at that.

For comparison sake Pittsburgh has 8 guys making ~700k(and Reaves at ~1.1), Chicago has 12 under a million. Anaheim has a lot of injuries but even when fully healthy they only have 14 guys making over a million which makes it 9 under a million. And those were the first 3 teams I checked, I'd imagine a lot of the good teams are like it.

9 guys around that mark seems quite normal to me in a cap world, why should we go out a pay the Matt Martin's and Leo Komarov's of the world 2.5-3 million when we have young guys who can step into 4th liner, and extra player roles for around a million or less. That's exactly what the young talent is for.

 

[bobermay]

I think we're overrating the worth of our big three... People thought Rielly and Kadri were getting > 5... similarily, I think Marner/Nylander are going to get less than most anticipate...

My guesses:
Nylander: 6x6
Matthews 8x10.5
Marner: 7x6

 

[ToneDog]

I think we're overrating the worth of our big three... People thought Rielly and Kadri were getting > 5... similarily, I think Marner/Nylander are going to get less than most anticipate...

My guesses:
Nylander: 6x6
Matthews 8x10.5
Marner: 7x6

Been saying this for awhile. While Matthews is trending up, Willie and Mitch are trending down.

 

[Menzinger]

I think we're overrating the worth of our big three... People thought Rielly and Kadri were getting > 5... similarily, I think Marner/Nylander are going to get less than most anticipate...

My guesses:
Nylander: 6x6
Matthews 8x10.5
Marner: 7x6

Though neither Rielly nor Kadri had anywhere close to the rookie seasons that the big three have had.

 

[bobermay]

Though neither Rielly nor Kadri had anywhere close to the rookie seasons that the big three have had.

Rielly is the better comparison, but people were quite high on Rielly... I don't see their situations being very different... Rielly was seen to have top pairing potential... Marner and Nylander have top line potential...

The fact they're coming off their ELC and eating up 4 RFA years helps our cause...

 

[Menzinger]

Rielly is the better comparison, but people were quite high on Rielly... I don't see their situations being very different... Rielly was seen to have top pairing potential... Marner and Nylander have top line potential...

They certainly do, but Nylander and Marner have certainly proven more than Rielly had in his rookie season.

That said I don't think your estimations are wrong: both Nylander/Marner will likely each get in that 6-7.5ish range for cap hit. Though I think Matthews will hit 11 million if he gets to the PPG level or above this season.