Salary Cap: The Big 3 Contracts Talk

[DarkKnight]

realistically its the big 1, with an elite 2 to compliment him.

Agreed.

 

[Menzinger]

If you give Marner 6 mil a season, Conor Brown is licking his lips and will to be asking for 8 mil a season ... just keeping it real and ignoring the hype

Connor Brown also didn't put up 60 points as a 19 year old.

 

[grapes55]

Unless Nylander and Marner really turn it on the rest of the season and put up 70+ points I seriously doubt they get above 7mil per

 

[MagicalRazor]

you gotta note how good the leafs management is at giving out contracts , People will agruee that after the marealu 1 but im someone who thinks hes gonna score 30-35 goals lol so i don't see his as a bad contract i know others will disagree .

I think each player is going to receive the max years at 8.

Matthews 10.5x8
Marner 6.25x8
Nylander 7x8 is my guess

 

[MeowLeafs]

If they continue at their current pace, Nylander won't sign long term yet and Marner just won't sign this off-season. We know they're good, Nylander/Marner know they're good, and their agents know they're good. We're not going to get them at some insanely cheap deals.

 

[MarMarSab3]

Willy 8x7
Marner 8x7
Matthews 8x 11

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Unless Nylander and Marner really turn it on the rest of the season and put up 70+ points I seriously doubt they get above 7mil per

If either of them has a hot week and a half (i.e. 8 points in the next 6 games), they'll suddenly be on a 70 point pace.

 

[grapes55]

If either of them has a hot week and a half (i.e. 8 points in the next 6 games), they'll suddenly be on a 70 point pace.

True, but an equally cold week points wise could see their point pace drop further, although I doubt that happens. Regardess, a guy like Pastrnak signed for 6/6.6 after putting up 70 points last year so I think unless the leafs really push for 8 years, Nylander and Marner will unlikely be over 7 million

 

[egd27]

Right now the three of them make around $3M total (before bonuses) their new contracts will likely total around $24M.......so where does that additional $21M come from?

 

[firstemperor]

Can't see Nylander/Marner fetching some of the numbers in this thread especially after comparable deals around the league (Pasta, Ehlers....Parayko, Slavin, etc.) Think we're overvaluing them here.

 

[Menzinger]

If either of them has a hot week and a half (i.e. 8 points in the next 6 games), they'll suddenly be on a 70 point pace.

That's a good point about folks over emphasizing their current scoring pace. With such a relatively small amount of games played so far, an 5-6 game scoring streak could dramatically change things around in that regard.

Nylander for example had a pretty cold November last year and then after the all star break he was a near PPG.

 

[MJ65]

Right now the three of them make around $3M total (before bonuses) their new contracts will likely total around $24M.......so where does that additional $21M come from?

Nylander is the only RFA eligible for contract renewal both Marner and Matthews are up for contract renewal after next year (they both are on ELC), Leafs are not going to carry Lupul's contract after this season (also Gleason / Cowen off the books after this season) and Horton after next year and Marleau is going to be a FA a year after Horton's contract and Leafs might trade him in his final year. The only player that were going for few years is Kessel until 2012 - 22. Here is the list of players with contract for next season

- Martin 2.5 M (FA after 2019 -20)
- Kadri 4.5 M
- Marleau 6.25 M (FA after 2019 - 20)
- Matthews $925 K
- Marner $895 K
- Hyman $2.25 M
- Brown $2.1 M
- Rielly $5 M
- Zaitsev $4.5 M
- Gardiner $4.05 M (FA after 2018 -19)
- Borgman - $925 K
- Hainsey $3 M (FA after 2018 -19)
- Anderson $5 M
- McBackup $850 K (FA after 2018 -19)

Total committed $43 M (approx.)

UFA
JVR
Leo
Bozak

Moore
Polak

RFA
Nylander
Leivo
Gauthier
Carrick

So you can add and subtract the way you want to

 

[Boutette]

Right now the three of them make around $3M total (before bonuses) their new contracts will likely total around $24M.......so where does that additional $21M come from?

It comes from UFAs being replaced by younger cheaper players and and the cap going up. And actually the 3 make closer to 6 million with bonuses, so the difference is only about 18 million, which will be mostly covered next year by Van Reimsdyke, Bozak and Komarov leaving followed up by Marleau and quite possibly Gardiner.

 

[Duke Silver]

Just do it for $25M or less. Don't care how it's broken out.

 

[Polaris1010]

Unless Nylander and Marner really turn it on the rest of the season and put up 70+ points I seriously doubt they get above 7mil per

Nylander and Marner, both seem to be struggling just to get a shot on goal.

They don't do the crash the net get a garbage goal thing, so everyone has to wait until they develop into the player that they will be.

 

[Polaris1010]

Just do it for $25M or less. Don't care how it's broken out.

12$$$ Matthews

5$$$ each for the other two, and if that was signed today, that would be a huge over-payment.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Right now the three of them make around $3M total (before bonuses) their new contracts will likely total around $24M.......so where does that additional $21M come from?

I think that's a flawed way to look at it, though it's an approach many people take. Why not instead look at the contracts we have signed for 2019-20(Marleau, Kadri, Martin, Hyman, Brown, Rielly, Zaitsev, Andersen, Kessel's retention, and Horton LTIR for 38.6(33.3 ignoring Horton). That's 41.4 in space if we count the LTIR as full relief for simplicity. Give 25 million to the big 3 and that leaves the following roster with 16.4 in space

Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Marleau - Nylander - ______
______ - Kadri - Brown
Martin - ______ - ______
______, ______

Rielly - ______
______ - Zaitsev
______ - ______
______

Andersen
______

Grundstrom, Liljegren, Dermott fill 3 holes for about 2.7. You can fill the backup slot for about a million or less. Suddenly you're trying to fill a 2RW, 2 4th liners, 2 extra forwards, 2 top 4 D, and an extra D for 13.7. Kap is probably 1 of those for about 2 million maybe(that's a tough contract to guess). You could bring Gards back for 6 million, and you've got the following lineup with 5.7 in space

Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Marleau - Nylander - Kapanen
Grundstrom - Kadri - Brown
Martin - ______ - ______
______, ______

Rielly - ______
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Dermott - Liljegren
______

Andersen
Backup

Considering we've still got options like Soshnikov, Johnsson, Leivo, Bracco, Brooks, Timashov, Aaltonen, Gauthier, Carrick, Borgman, Rosen, Nielsen the ones that work out will be ready by then then filling most of those spots for cheap shouldn't be too difficult. Rielly's partner may be an issue, but there's also the cap going up twice probably for an extra ~4 million, as well as the possibility of moving Martin and/or Marleau with how their contracts are structured.

1 major issue would be the bonuses carrying over from 18-19 which includes Matthews, and Marner's. I would like to get those off the books next year.

 

[123offtheglass]

If I had to guess

Matthews 10.5 Nylander 6.5 Marner 6

Matthews could get even more though; depends on if he takes a discount or not like mcdavid did from 13.5 to 12.5.

 

[Field of Dreams]

I think that's a flawed way to look at it, though it's an approach many people take. Why not instead look at the contracts we have signed for 2019-20(Marleau, Kadri, Martin, Hyman, Brown, Rielly, Zaitsev, Andersen, Kessel's retention, and Horton LTIR for 38.6(33.3 ignoring Horton). That's 41.4 in space if we count the LTIR as full relief for simplicity. Give 25 million to the big 3 and that leaves the following roster with 16.4 in space

Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Marleau - Nylander - ______
______ - Kadri - Brown
Martin - ______ - ______
______, ______

Rielly - ______
______ - Zaitsev
______ - ______
______

Andersen
______

Grundstrom, Liljegren, Dermott fill 3 holes for about 2.7. You can fill the backup slot for about a million or less. Suddenly you're trying to fill a 2RW, 2 4th liners, 2 extra forwards, 2 top 4 D, and an extra D for 13.7. Kap is probably 1 of those for about 2 million maybe(that's a tough contract to guess). You could bring Gards back for 6 million, and you've got the following lineup with 5.7 in space

Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Marleau - Nylander - Kapanen
Grundstrom - Kadri - Brown
Martin - ______ - ______
______, ______

Rielly - ______
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Dermott - Liljegren
______

Andersen
Backup

Considering we've still got options like Soshnikov, Johnsson, Leivo, Bracco, Brooks, Timashov, Aaltonen, Gauthier, Carrick, Borgman, Rosen, Nielsen the ones that work out will be ready by then then filling most of those spots for cheap shouldn't be too difficult. Rielly's partner may be an issue, but there's also the cap going up twice probably for an extra ~4 million, as well as the possibility of moving Martin and/or Marleau with how their contracts are structured.

1 major issue would be the bonuses carrying over from 18-19 which includes Matthews, and Marner's. I would like to get those off the books next year.

This is the best overview of our cap outlook I have read.

While the 19-20 season looks a bit cramped with 1 year remaining on the Marleau and Martin contracts, their departure in the following season should allow us to allocate more funds on the back end.

Until then, it looks like we will lack the space for a true top pairing partner for Rielly unless we have a massive hit with a prospect or remove Nylander/Marner from the equation.

 

[Willy Stylez]

Matthews will get a AAV between McDavid and Eichel on max term. Nylander and Marner hard to guess because they are underperforming right now. But I still think both will get around 70 points and then sign around 6,7-7mil x 8 years.

 

[francis246]

I love Nylander and Marner but they are not getting over 7 million. People need to chill. I think both will be in the 5.5 to 6.5 range.

If ehlers, drouin and pasta didn't get 7 neither will these guys.

 

[ShaneFalco]

I don't think Marner even gets 6. If he has a so-so season I can see a bridge deal perhaps

 

[egd27]

I don't think Marner even gets 6. If he has a so-so season I can see a bridge deal perhaps

If he has a so-so season, he may decide not to re-sign until after the 18-19 season.

 

[613Leafer]

Barkov, Gaudreau, Monahan, Tarasenko, Scheifele, etc all sign for very reasonable ~5.9-7.5M contracts (the only 7M+ contract being Tarasenko, who was 23 years old when he signed his long-term deal).

Then Peter Chiarelli comes in, and just craps all over the market value with 8.5M for Draisaitl and 12.5M for McDavid. Based on the established RFA market value contracts at the time, I would have expected ~7M for Draisaitl and ~10M for McDavid.

Now we're going to have to pay a bunch extra, just because Chiarelli's a crappy GM (Seguin trade, Lucic contract, Reinhart trade, Eberle trade, etc).

 

[ACC1224]

If I had to guess

Matthews 10.5 Nylander 6.5 Marner 6

Matthews could get even more though; depends on if he takes a discount or not like mcdavid did from 13.5 to 12.5.

Since Marner will sign a year later I think he will get slightly more than Nylander.
Matthews - 11
Marner - 6.75
Nylander - 6.5