The Athletic: Detroit's Prospects Ranked 18th. Woof.

RabidBadger

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18th doesn't doesn't seem outlandish for a team who likely won't be out of the gutter for a few years. That's really not bad when you consider, to reiterate Newfy's point, the rebuild drafting only started 2 years ago.
 

MBH

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Lol, absolutely not. The point is there are lots of ways to build an effective line. He doesn’t “need” Raymond. But it’s an attainable option that could be highly effective.

Rasmussen can be a responsible centre that wins faceoffs and puck battles, has good net front skills, makes quick passes and a combination of range, size and strength that is hard to beat (regardless of who his line mates are).

The right chemistry makes all players better. Raymond is someone available that could be an excellent compliment to Rasmussen.

I mean I’d be thrilled if Byfield somehow slid to 4 or an elite center was available on the UFA market but until that happens you just gotta play the hand you’re dealt.

In reality we need good players all around our lineup and certain skill sets could compliment each other. Raymond is considered by many as one of the guys with a higher ceiling in this draft and will be available for the Wings to consider. He Rasmussen and Zadina could be a good second threat behind the MLB line.

Well, there's no need to force Rasmussen in there though.
He's probably not ready yet anyway.
1) You can sign some fill-in like Brassard or whoever.
2) You can just try Fabbri as a stop gap.
3) You wait for Rasmussen or Veleno.
4) You can draft Perfetti this year, or maybe Johnson next year.

I just don't see a skater who belongs in a 200-foot role. I don't see a zone entry guy.
I do see someone who should be able to win board battles, work the cycle, and get to the net and score. Elsewhere I've said I think he can be 30-goal man if he gets that kind of role.
 

MBH

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yeah don’t sweat the Pronman rankings. He had the Flames at 29th for multiple years and we had Rasmus Andersson, Juuso Valimaki, Andrew Mangiapane, Dillon Dube, Adam Fox, Oliver Kylington (And a couple other guys who could be NHLers) and he said our only prospect with by far the most upside was Oliver Kylington, basically the only one that hasn’t locked down a full time job.

He also had Gaudreau at 42 after he put up 2 PPG at Boston College. I remember telling him he had probably never seen him play and we actually had a HF sparing match. I am sure someone could dig it up. And he proceeded to EDIT his rankings as I looked it up years later and he nudged him up to like 11th or something. No journalistic integrity. But if someone is going to pay you 40 Gs to be a glorified HFposter I guess you run with it.

part of me thinks he actually watches these prospects he’s just that bad at evaluating prospects.

Actually agree.
Seems like he's gotten away from his preference-based rankings a bit.
But I've never been too impressed with his draft rankings or prospect rankings.
 

saska sault

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Im not surprised, prospect rankings are just what they are. I loved getting the old Hockey News magazine prospect edition. Seeing how the Wings players ranked within the league and how the local Greyhound kids were ranked since I got to watch them develop here in the Sault. Looking back at those 5 or 10 years later.. Its amazing how fast things shift. We will be ok, already are on the right side of the rebuild if you ask me.
 

FMichael

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I think he was being generous. Our cupboard is EMPTY.

You can thank Tyler Wright for his horrid drafting ability as we’ve had way more misses than hits the past 6 or so years (combined with the league worst lottery luck).
I may be wrong here by saying this, but it seems to me that drafting 18 yr olds, and trying to forecast what they will become 4 to 6 years later has always been, and always will be a massive crapshoot.

We were incredibly lucky going from 1 generation of talent into another thus allowing us to see an impressive 25 seasons of making the playoffs.
 

Nut Upstrom

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I disagree with this pretty massively, tested top 3 at the prospect game in some of the skating areas in his draft year if I remember right. Rasmussen is not a bad skater if he was 6'2" much less how big he is.

I do think Veleno is a better skater, but not by a ton and preferred Rasmussen last year of the two in Grand Rapids at center. Ras looked really good when he played last year.

I expect pretty big things out of Ras next year. The break should have helped his wrist and back. Hopefully he is now back in the gym going full tilt.

He can be a massive weapon. Bigger guys take longer to develop.
Well said.

I know he wasn't the popular pick (I wanted Necas or Liljegren) but the BS flying in regards to this kid's potential and his skating just smacks of people being a little over-eager with the whole 'I told you so' blather. His skating is better than some people here are swearing by and better than Pronman's analysis - I'm not sure where people are getting that opinion, but the dude skates well for his size. His hands, especially in tight, are filthy and his intensity seems to be extremely high - I think he is going to be a big game player and a playoff monster. Add a little snarl to go with that size and this kid is going to give players fits on both ends of the ice. Obviously, I agree with TZE in expecting big things out of him. I expect much bigger things out of Ras than I do of Veleno.
Patience is all I can say.
 

DatsyukToZetterberg

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Also love when he dominates physically against a midget like Quinn Hughes on the offensive end board battle.

Given how Hughes has played thus far in his NHL career I don't think we have any reason to believe that he'll be rendered ineffective by someone like Rasmussen. He's shown that he can handle the ramped up physicality of the playoffs.

That being said, I think Rasmussen tends to get underrated a bit because of the players that were selected around him. While he does seem destined for a bottom 6 role he does have some interesting potential should he reach it. I we can get a player similar to say Ryan Malone or Patric Hornqvist I'd call that a win.

As for the rankings themselves I think we're pretty accurately placed. I think I'd have the players in slightly different tiers, but overall it's pretty similar. I'm still not sold on Seider and I probably won't be until he can show he can play against NHLers, Hronek had a down year and will need to bounce back, and Zadina is someone I believe in quite a bit more after his stint in the NHL. I think after next season Zadina will end up being our top U22 player and firmly in the High End area - the same could be true for someone like Seider as well.

1. Zadina - High End/Very Good
2. Seider - High End/Very Good
3. Hronek - High End/Very Good
-------------
4. Veleno - Legit NHLer
5. Johansson - Legit NHLer
6. Rasmussen - Legit NHLer
7. McIsaac - Legit NHLer
8. Berggren - Legit NHLer
9. Tyutyayev - Legit NHLer
10. Mastrosimone - Legit NHLer
------------
11. Soderblom - Has a chance
12. Larsson - Has a chance
13. Cholowski - Has a chance
14. Tuomisto - Has a chance
15. Smith - Has a chance
15. Grewe - Has a chance
16. Phillips - Has a chance
17. Lindstrom - Has a chance

To me High End/Very good is equivalent to Top 6 F/Top 4 D, Legit NHLer would be 2nd or 3rd Line F/2nd or 3rd Pair D, and Has a chance is bottom 6 F/Bottom Pair D. Truthfully of the the final tier I almost didn't include Cholowski or Lindstrom as neither one seems to be capable of being more than AHL/#7s on NHL teams, but their too young to write off. I think we could see a lot of growth next season if Soderblom can show that last year wasn't an aberration, Grewe rebounds in the OHL, and Mastosimone gains a biggers role in the NCAA. As well, I think we could see a couple of our "Legit NHLers" move into the Very Good tier. I'm really excited to see what Johansson and Tyutyayev do with bigger roles.

Also, I think Pronman leaving Tyutyayev off of the list is the biggest miss for the Wings. He's very much a legit prospect and I have him at 5 or 6 in our pool right now. He's just a little bit below Marchenko and in the same tier as Morozov, Voronkov, or Firstov for prospects he's ranked thus far.
 
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simonedvinsson

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Given how Hughes has played thus far in his NHL career I don't think we have any reason to believe that he'll be rendered ineffective by someone like Rasmussen. He's shown that he can handle the ramped up physicality of the playoffs.

That being said, I think Rasmussen tends to get underrated a bit because of the players that were selected around him. While he does seem destined for a bottom 6 role he does have some interesting potential should he reach it. I we can get a player similar to say Ryan Malone or Patric Hornqvist I'd call that a win.

As for the rankings themselves I think we're pretty accurately placed. I think I'd have the players in slightly different tiers, but overall it's pretty similar. I'm still not sold on Seider and I probably won't be until he can show he can play against NHLers, Hronek had a down year and will need to bounce back, and Zadina is someone I believe in quite a bit more after his stint in the NHL. I think after next season Zadina will end up being our top U22 player and firmly in the High End area - the same could be true for someone like Seider as well.

1. Zadina - High End/Very Good
2. Seider - High End/Very Good
3. Hronek - High End/Very Good
-------------
4. Veleno - Legit NHLer
5. Johansson - Legit NHLer
6. Rasmussen - Legit NHLer
7. McIsaac - Legit NHLer
8. Berggren - Legit NHLer
9. Tyutyayev - Legit NHLer
10. Mastrosimone - Legit NHLer
------------
11. Soderblom - Has a chance
12. Larsson - Has a chance
13. Cholowski - Has a chance
14. Tuomisto - Has a chance
15. Smith - Has a chance
15. Grewe - Has a chance
16. Phillips - Has a chance
17. Lindstrom - Has a chance

To me High End/Very good is equivalent to Top 6 F/Top 4 D, Legit NHLer would be 2nd or 3rd Line F/2nd or 3rd Pair D, and Has a chance is bottom 6 F/Bottom Pair D. Truthfully of the the final tier I almost didn't include Cholowski or Lindstrom as neither one seems to be capable of being more than AHL/#7s on NHL teams, but their too young to write off. I think we could see a lot of growth next season if Soderblom can show that last year wasn't an aberration, Grewe rebounds in the OHL, and Mastosimone gains a biggers role in the NCAA. As well, I think we could see a couple of our "Legit NHLers" move into the Very Good tier. I'm really excited to see what Johansson and Tyutyayev do with bigger roles.

Also, I think Pronman leaving Tyutyayev off of the list is the biggest miss for the Wings. He's very much a legit prospect and I have him at 5 or 6 in our pool right now. He's just a little bit below Marchenko and in the same tier as Morozov, Voronkov, or Firstov for prospects he's ranked thus far.
i agree with most of this. i would bump berggren, tyutyayev, and mastrisimone off a tier, personally, but the top seven look about right.
 
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DatsyukToZetterberg

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i agree with most of this. i would bump berggren, tyutyayev, and mastrisimone off a tier, personally, but the top seven look about right.

That's fair. I felt more comfortable placing them in the "legit tier" as opposed to the "Has a chance", but all 3 definitely carry more risk than the 4 players ahead of them. I think they're right on that bubble and I can see why you'd want to move them down a tier.
 
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Roomba With a Bauer

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Nice to see some of the pundits agreeing with what I've been saying for years, which is that this team is about 4 years out from being able to make the playoffs.

Without good drafting and lottery luck this team is going to end up in that weird Calgary cycle where they waste the best years of their few good prospects before adding other good prospects. Make the playoffs for a year or two, out in first round, miss for a year or two. Wings will probably end up falling as many spots as possible again next year in the draft.

Fans tend to overrate their own prospects and even we agree that there's only 2-3 "high-end" prospects in the system.
 
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Winger98

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Nice to see some of the pundits agreeing with what I've been saying for years, which is that this team is about 4 years out from being able to make the playoffs.

Without good drafting and lottery luck this team is going to end up in that weird Calgary cycle where they waste the best years of their few good prospects before adding other good prospects. Make the playoffs for a year or two, out in first round, miss for a year or two. Wings will probably end up falling as many spots as possible again next year in the draft.

Fans tend to overrate their own prospects and even we agree that there's only 2-3 "high-end" prospects in the system.

This seems like it might be an argument for wading into free agency a bit and trying to land a big one or two. Knowing the draft is a crap shoot, try to get better faster with what we have, and maybe get some lotto luck as we move up the standings.
 

MBH

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Nice to see some of the pundits agreeing with what I've been saying for years, which is that this team is about 4 years out from being able to make the playoffs.

Without good drafting and lottery luck this team is going to end up in that weird Calgary cycle where they waste the best years of their few good prospects before adding other good prospects. Make the playoffs for a year or two, out in first round, miss for a year or two. Wings will probably end up falling as many spots as possible again next year in the draft.

Fans tend to overrate their own prospects and even we agree that there's only 2-3 "high-end" prospects in the system.

This will be 4 straight drafts in the top 10 and 3 straight drafts in the top 6.
We should be fine.

It could work in our favor, because the guys who go #1 are often the guys who make $11 or $12M.
We're watching Edmonton - hamstrung by the cap before they've won anything.
Toronto - already has to consider tearing apart the core and they've never been past round 1.
The Sabres have Eichel and Reinhart and Dahlin, plus 5 other top 12 picks.

Now we're watching the Islanders vs the Flyers fight for the chance to the Final 4.

The Flyers have one top 5 pick since 2008.
Nolan Patrick.

The Islanders have a bunch of top 5 picks since 2009
Tavares - Toronto
Niederreiter - Carolina
Strome - Rangers
Reinhart - KHL
Dall Colle - Healthy Scratch

Vegas?Expansion team
Colorado - Yep. Built with a lottery (but with a pay structure that no longer exists in the NHL)

Tampa- Built by the lottery to a good degree. Kept together thanks to a bunch of guys taking less.

The new 2nd contract for young stars is a game-changer for GMs when it comes to team building.
 

Pavels Dog

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Nice to see some of the pundits agreeing with what I've been saying for years, which is that this team is about 4 years out from being able to make the playoffs.

Without good drafting and lottery luck this team is going to end up in that weird Calgary cycle where they waste the best years of their few good prospects before adding other good prospects. Make the playoffs for a year or two, out in first round, miss for a year or two. Wings will probably end up falling as many spots as possible again next year in the draft.

Fans tend to overrate their own prospects and even we agree that there's only 2-3 "high-end" prospects in the system.
4 years is nonsense tbh. I would say if this team isn't fighting for a playoff spot in 2-3 years we should look at firing Yzerman. Imo we should be able to accept one more really bad year, where we are in the bottom 3 of the league. After that significant improvement needs to be seen for a few reasons:

- Lots and lots of cap space is opening up, we currently only have 5 contracts on the books for the 21-22 season, there is huge amount of flexibility for Yzerman to rebuild this team
- Top 10 picks that should be in the NHL by the 21-22 season include Zadina, Seider, Rasmussen, #4OA in 20, and likely a very high pick in '21 as well
- We have no significant pieces aging out of the team, meaning the talent LOSS should be minimal, players and prospects we acquire barely have to be good to be improvements
- We haven't even seen this rebuild with a different coach, once that coaching change happens it could make a big difference

etc.
 

Henkka

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4 years is nonsense tbh. I would say if this team isn't fighting for a playoff spot in 2-3 years we should look at firing Yzerman. Imo we should be able to accept one more really bad year, where we are in the bottom 3 of the league. After that significant improvement needs to be seen for a few reasons:

- Lots and lots of cap space is opening up, we currently only have 5 contracts on the books for the 21-22 season, there is huge amount of flexibility for Yzerman to rebuild this team
- Top 10 picks that should be in the NHL by the 21-22 season include Zadina, Seider, Rasmussen, #4OA in 20, and likely a very high pick in '21 as well
- We have no significant pieces aging out of the team, meaning the talent LOSS should be minimal, players and prospects we acquire barely have to be good to be improvements
- We haven't even seen this rebuild with a different coach, once that coaching change happens it could make a big difference

etc.

This is also my view. It will happen faster than nobody of these nega-nancies expects in here.
 
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Roomba With a Bauer

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4 years is nonsense tbh. I would say if this team isn't fighting for a playoff spot in 2-3 years we should look at firing Yzerman. Imo we should be able to accept one more really bad year, where we are in the bottom 3 of the league. After that significant improvement needs to be seen for a few reasons:

- Lots and lots of cap space is opening up, we currently only have 5 contracts on the books for the 21-22 season, there is huge amount of flexibility for Yzerman to rebuild this team
- Top 10 picks that should be in the NHL by the 21-22 season include Zadina, Seider, Rasmussen, #4OA in 20, and likely a very high pick in '21 as well
- We have no significant pieces aging out of the team, meaning the talent LOSS should be minimal, players and prospects we acquire barely have to be good to be improvements
- We haven't even seen this rebuild with a different coach, once that coaching change happens it could make a big difference

etc.

I'm taking a screenshot of this post so I can mock you with it in four years. :sarcasm:
 

DatsyukToZetterberg

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4 years is nonsense tbh. I would say if this team isn't fighting for a playoff spot in 2-3 years we should look at firing Yzerman. Imo we should be able to accept one more really bad year, where we are in the bottom 3 of the league. After that significant improvement needs to be seen for a few reasons:

- Lots and lots of cap space is opening up, we currently only have 5 contracts on the books for the 21-22 season, there is huge amount of flexibility for Yzerman to rebuild this team
- Top 10 picks that should be in the NHL by the 21-22 season include Zadina, Seider, Rasmussen, #4OA in 20, and likely a very high pick in '21 as well
- We have no significant pieces aging out of the team, meaning the talent LOSS should be minimal, players and prospects we acquire barely have to be good to be improvements
- We haven't even seen this rebuild with a different coach, once that coaching change happens it could make a big difference

etc.

This is also my view. It will happen faster than nobody of these nega-nancies expects in here.

I think this team could be competing for the playoffs by the 2023 season, though I think it's more likely to be the next year where they're back as contenders. That would be 2 more seasons of bottoming out and a slow climb up starting in 2023. But I really don't think it's a realistic goal to be competitive before that. I don't think as of now you can really say that any of our prospects aside from Zadina or Seider are definitive bets to be top line players as of now and when you look at the holes that are on the team the Wings need a lot of help. There was a post or article a few years ago that outlined how rare, it may have even been impossible, for a bottom 5 team to move from picking in the bottom 5 to the playoffs in one season. I'll try to find the article, but given the Wings were by far the worst team in the league it's unlikely they would compete for a spot in 2021 or 2022 without significant upgrades at multiple positions. The Wings should be better naturally by removing players like Ericsson and Howard, but that's just enough to get them to bottom tier level as opposed to the tier of their own.

In terms of prospects it currently looks like only Seider has "impact" potential. Sure, Rasmussen or Veleno have a chance of being top 6 players, but I wouldn't say that chance is likely at least as of now. The same can be said for the rest of the pool. There are a number of interesting prospects that could develop into something, it's just too early to tell.

When Prashanth Iyer looked at the Wings last year compared to a contender they were missing a #1/2C, two top line wingers, a top pairing dman, and a 2nd pairing dman, and a #1 Goalie. Since then Mantha, Larkin, and Bertuzzi have solidified their places as legit top 6 players - in the case of Mantha and Larkin I think they've shown they are top line pieces. The defence regressed and we no longer have anyone that really shows to be a top pairing level, really at a top 4, but I think Hronek will bounce back. Aside from Zadina and DeKeyser, I don't think the Wings have another top 6 or top 4 piece currently on the team.

This leaves us with a "Projection Line-up" of:

Perfetti -Larkin-Mantha
Bertuzzi-2022 Pick-Zadina
XXXX-Fabbri-XXXX
XXXX-XXXX-XXXX

2021 Pick-Seider
McIsaac/Johansson-Hronek
XXXX-XXXX

FA
FA

I'd expect Seider should be able to be at least a top 4 level of dman, but we need him to be more than that if we're going to contend. I think 1 of Johansson or McIsaac should become a capable 2nd pairing LHD and act as a Nemeth/DeKeyser replacement. Whoever we pick at #4 this year should fill either the top line LW, #1/2C spot, or top pairing holes in a few years. Then our 2nds should give us some more players that have chances to fill other holes or act as depth pieces. I have confidence that the remaining "XXXX" should be filed internally by some prospects, it's just a matter of who develops. I'd prefer the Wings to play the kids in some of the holes so they can figure out what exactly they've got in them, essentially do the opposite of what the Rockies do in the MLB.

I'd love to see the Wings become competitive before the 2023 season, I just don't see it being likely or even feasible without something really changing. Even when we add top picks in 2020, 2021, and 2022 they won't make immediate impacts and it will take a lot of lift this team out of the bottom. Does it make sense to go for Krug when he'll be 30 going into next, will want a 5+ year contract, and wants an AAV of 7.5-8.5? It makes us better in the short term but it doesn't line up with the rest of the teams aging curve. Feel free to screen shot this and taunt me if I'm horribly wrong and I'll go the route of Ricelund :laugh:
 
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TheOtherOne

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Jan 2, 2010
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This seems like a good time to plug my old analysis "3 year turnover" 3 year turnover

No matter how bad your team is currently, there's no reason for your optimistic timeline for contention to be any longer than 3 years.
 

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