The Athletic: Detroit's Prospects Ranked 18th. Woof.

[MBH]

2020 NHL organizational rankings: No. 18 Detroit Red Wings
Pronman ranks us 18th.
We fell from 13th.
The only graduate was Hirose (WTF??)
And our 18th place ranking includes Hronek and Cholowski as prospects still.
I'll share the top 10.
1-Seider
2-Hronek
3-Zadina
4-Veleno
5-McIsaac
6-Rasmussen
7-Cholowski
8-Berggren
9-Soderblom
10-Mastrisomone
11-Johnansson

Those 11 are ranked "legit NHL player" or better.
Seider is the only guy ranked "high end." Zadina/Hronek are on the high-end/very good bubble.

Click to read more...

 

[ShanahanMan]

I think he was being generous. Our cupboard is EMPTY.

You can thank Tyler Wright for his horrid drafting ability as we’ve had way more misses than hits the past 6 or so years (combined with the league worst lottery luck).

 

[BinCookin]

Guess we will have to just wait and see on some of these guys.

 

[FabricDetails]

I read the ranking this morning. He did it differently this time where anyone drafted since 2016 is involved in the rankings, so a team like the Leafs has Matthews still counted in their rankings. Detroits only good NHL player in that frame is Hronek so the wings have dropped quite a bit from that

I got you @newfy,

It's a little bit of perspective. But yeah, you'd hoped that the Wings would have drafted better the past few years. Oh well. Onto 2021.

 

[DatsDeking]

Couldn’t access the full article on the site. What orgs are top three?

 

[Frk It]

I’ve never been a big Rasmussen guy... but no way he is our 6th best prospect. He also had a good year last year.

Zadina still has a high ceiling IMO.

Agree with what was said about Seider and Hronek. Those 2 are some good building blocks on the back end.

 

[TCNorthstars]

Couldn’t access the full article on the site. What orgs are top three?

He won’t get there for a while. Does 2-3 a day.

 

[DatsDeking]

He won’t get there for a while. Does 2-3 a day.

Ohh didn’t even think that he’d go backwards. Gotcha. I’ll keep an eye out.

 

[MBH]

I think he was being generous. Our cupboard is EMPTY.

You can thank Tyler Wright for his horrid drafting ability as we’ve had way more misses than hits the past 6 or so years (combined with the league worst lottery luck).

I still feel like we're OK.
I see this:

Center
Larkin as a 1 or 2 C. Maybe as a Ryan OReilly Center. Veleno as a 2 or 3 C, maybe a Bozak type center.
We still need some help here in our top 6.
Could Fabbri be that guy? Worth trying, but I don't see it as a really likely option. Wonder if he's like a poor man's trocheck.
Some will say Rasmussen, but I really don't envision him as a top 9 center. Especially if Veleno is one of the others.
Bottom Line - Need a top 6 center. Not easy to find.

Wingers
Mantha legit top 6 or even top line winger.
Bertuzzi legit top 6 or middle six winger.
Zadina should be a top six winger. Maybe a top liner.
Fabbri seems OK as a middle six winger.
After that it's a bunch of prospects, some fading, and some waiver wire fodder.
Rasmussen should be a top 9 winger. He could still be a heavy, net-front, board-battle warrior who scores 30 goals from the wing. Or maybe he's more of a 15-20 goal guy who plays Line 3 and the 2nd Unit. Either way, I'm comfy with him as a top nine winger.
Svechnikov could easily be a top nine winger, still. Harder to envision him scoring 30. But I could see him in that heavy-winger, 15-20 goal, 30-40 point, 2ndpp unit role. Time is admittedly not in his favor, but it would be foolish to just write him off.
Givani Smith could be a third line winger who plays netfront on the PP. Would love to see him score 25-30 goals in GR next season.
Berggren and Mastrosimone seem like two other candidates for top 9 roles. Soderblom, Grewe and several others have flashed potential
So where does that leave us.
Do we REALLY need 2 top line wingers, four top 6 wingers, and six top 9 wingers? Probably not. No team can really do that in the salary cap era.
But Mantha/Zadina give us a pretty good start at wing as first liners or possible first liners..
Bertuzzi/Fabbri/Rasmussen.... now we have 5 of the six wingers we need for our top 3 lines. We only need one of Svech, Berggren, Smith, Grew, Soderblom, etc, to win a top 9 job.
A lot of this rests on 1) Mantha staying healthy 2) Zadina developing and 3) Rasmussen's development.

Left Defense
We need 3 LD.
Dekeyser is our top LD and he's missed substantial chunks of the season three straight years. He's 30. Nemeth is 28. We're basically needing to develop 3 left defense. If we draft one this year, by the time they're really ready, Dekeyser is 33-34 and Nemeth is likely on another team.
So who are our candidates:
Cholowski: The clock is ticking on Cholowski. I don't think anyone expects a first pairing guy out of him anymore. I think top 4 is starting to look optimistic. And if he doesn't find some grit and some ability to contribute offensively (the real mystery is his inability to contribute any offense, whatsoever, at 5 on 5.), he might be destined for an AHL career. I still see him as a likely bottom pairing defenseman.
McIsaac: I think McIsaac, at this point, is probably our safest bet for a top 4 role, even though it's far from a sure thing. I think he's almost surely an NHLer if he stays healthy. Realistically, he's a 2 or 3 LD. He could be a left-side Brad Stuart, but not as rugged.
Johansson: One of my favorite prospects, he's a great skater. I'm interested to see if he's grown at all from the 6'0 he was drafted at. He's got skating ability that reminds me of Liljegren. I think he's got an outside shot at being a top-pairing defenseman in this league, particularly if his partner is a guy like Seider. But he's got a lot to prove. I can't say I'm really sure he'll be a 2nd or 3rd pairing guy, either.
---
After that, I'm really not sure we have any LD worth mentioning. Cooper Moore is miles away. Kotkansalo was being used as a forward last year. Setkov? I don't think so.
So a) we don't have a top pairing type guy. We might not have 2 LD either.
We need a blue-chip LD prospect. Maybe 2.

Right Defense.
Filip Hronek is already established as a legit defenseman. Can he clean up that defense a bit? Would a better team and better coach help him not look as lost as Bowey? I think so. So, defense is a bit of a question, but I think he's realistically a top 4 defenseman in the NHL.
Moritz Seider? We better hope he's a top pairing guy. If everything turns out right, Seider plays 25-minutes a night, big defensive assignments, big PK minutes and maybe some second unit PP minutes. Seider has a long way to go before he's a legit, 25-minute a night guy. But we drafted him 6th, so I think it's fair to have high expectations and assume the Wings got it right until he shows us otherwise.
So, I'm not going to say first pairing, RD, but I am going to say, top 4 RD.
Now we've got more prospects. Gustav Lindstrom is the oldest. He'll be 22 in October, which seems crazy. He didn't look terrible in Detroit last year, but I'm a long ways away from saying he's legit. Anti Tuomisto? He hasn't played against anything resembling high quality competition. Realistically, where the heck would he fit if he did kind of turn into that big shot from the point defenseman? Gustav Berglund might be the most underrated prospect in the system. He's got some size. He's a good skater. And showed decent hockey sense. And there are some prospect watchers who like Seth Barton, the 21-year-old ready to start his junior year in college.
Bottom Line: We have two top 4 D, one of whom seems like a reasonable bet at being a top pairing guy.
You can find 3rd pairing defensemen anywhere, and we've got 3-4 prospects capable of turning into that.

Goalie
We've got nobody on the Wings who we can really expect to be here in 3-4 seasons.
Prospect-wise, we're pretty barren, too.
We need a starter and a backup.
Viktor Brattstrom, 23, had a nice season for Timra. He's 6'4. But is he a prospect?
Carter Gylander is a 6'5 goalie about to play his freshman year at Colgate. Who knows?
Jesper Eliasson, 20, had a rough year in a lower league in Sweden.
Keith Petruzzelli, 21, has been around a long time. He's gotten better every season in college. Shouldn't he be signed before his senior year begins??
Filip Larsson, 22, got beat up in Grand Rapids and improved in Toledo, but was still obviously lower in the depth charts than a couple guys with little shot at the NHL.
Bottom Line: We need a #1 and #2 and we have no reason to believe we have either in our system at the moment.

So, Our Needs
C: 1 or 2C.
W: Maybe a 2W?
LD: 1LD, 2LD
RD: None
G: 1G, 2G

 

[Winger98]

I’ve never been a big Rasmussen guy... but no way he is our 6th best prospect. He also had a good year last year.

Zadina still has a high ceiling IMO.

Agree with what was said about Seider and Hronek. Those 2 are some good building blocks on the back end.

When healthy, better than the center ranked 4th. I get people not liking the Rasmussen pick, but he's still showing more than Veleno, and was doing it in the middle of the ice in GR. Veleno might pass him some day, but other than not liking Rasmussen I don't see anything happening on the ice to justify Veleno being ranked higher.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I still feel like we're OK.
I see this:

Center
Larkin as a 1 or 2 C. Maybe as a Ryan OReilly Center. Veleno as a 2 or 3 C, maybe a Bozak type center.
We still need some help here in our top 6.
Could Fabbri be that guy? Worth trying, but I don't see it as a really likely option. Wonder if he's like a poor man's trocheck.
Some will say Rasmussen, but I really don't envision him as a top 9 center. Especially if Veleno is one of the others.
Bottom Line - Need a top 6 center. Not easy to find.

Wingers
Mantha legit top 6 or even top line winger.
Bertuzzi legit top 6 or middle six winger.
Zadina should be a top six winger. Maybe a top liner.
Fabbri seems OK as a middle six winger.
After that it's a bunch of prospects, some fading, and some waiver wire fodder.
Rasmussen should be a top 9 winger. He could still be a heavy, net-front, board-battle warrior who scores 30 goals from the wing. Or maybe he's more of a 15-20 goal guy who plays Line 3 and the 2nd Unit. Either way, I'm comfy with him as a top nine winger.
Svechnikov could easily be a top nine winger, still. Harder to envision him scoring 30. But I could see him in that heavy-winger, 15-20 goal, 30-40 point, 2ndpp unit role. Time is admittedly not in his favor, but it would be foolish to just write him off.
Givani Smith could be a third line winger who plays netfront on the PP. Would love to see him score 25-30 goals in GR next season.
Berggren and Mastrosimone seem like two other candidates for top 9 roles. Soderblom, Grewe and several others have flashed potential
So where does that leave us.
Do we REALLY need 2 top line wingers, four top 6 wingers, and six top 9 wingers? Probably not. No team can really do that in the salary cap era.
But Mantha/Zadina give us a pretty good start at wing as first liners or possible first liners..
Bertuzzi/Fabbri/Rasmussen.... now we have 5 of the six wingers we need for our top 3 lines. We only need one of Svech, Berggren, Smith, Grew, Soderblom, etc, to win a top 9 job.
A lot of this rests on 1) Mantha staying healthy 2) Zadina developing and 3) Rasmussen's development.

Left Defense
We need 3 LD.
Dekeyser is our top LD and he's missed substantial chunks of the season three straight years. He's 30. Nemeth is 28. We're basically needing to develop 3 left defense. If we draft one this year, by the time they're really ready, Dekeyser is 33-34 and Nemeth is likely on another team.
So who are our candidates:
Cholowski: The clock is ticking on Cholowski. I don't think anyone expects a first pairing guy out of him anymore. I think top 4 is starting to look optimistic. And if he doesn't find some grit and some ability to contribute offensively (the real mystery is his inability to contribute any offense, whatsoever, at 5 on 5.), he might be destined for an AHL career. I still see him as a likely bottom pairing defenseman.
McIsaac: I think McIsaac, at this point, is probably our safest bet for a top 4 role, even though it's far from a sure thing. I think he's almost surely an NHLer if he stays healthy. Realistically, he's a 2 or 3 LD. He could be a left-side Brad Stuart, but not as rugged.
Johansson: One of my favorite prospects, he's a great skater. I'm interested to see if he's grown at all from the 6'0 he was drafted at. He's got skating ability that reminds me of Liljegren. I think he's got an outside shot at being a top-pairing defenseman in this league, particularly if his partner is a guy like Seider. But he's got a lot to prove. I can't say I'm really sure he'll be a 2nd or 3rd pairing guy, either.
---
After that, I'm really not sure we have any LD worth mentioning. Cooper Moore is miles away. Kotkansalo was being used as a forward last year. Setkov? I don't think so.
So a) we don't have a top pairing type guy. We might not have 2 LD either.
We need a blue-chip LD prospect. Maybe 2.

Right Defense.
Filip Hronek is already established as a legit defenseman. Can he clean up that defense a bit? Would a better team and better coach help him not look as lost as Bowey? I think so. So, defense is a bit of a question, but I think he's realistically a top 4 defenseman in the NHL.
Moritz Seider? We better hope he's a top pairing guy. If everything turns out right, Seider plays 25-minutes a night, big defensive assignments, big PK minutes and maybe some second unit PP minutes. Seider has a long way to go before he's a legit, 25-minute a night guy. But we drafted him 6th, so I think it's fair to have high expectations and assume the Wings got it right until he shows us otherwise.
So, I'm not going to say first pairing, RD, but I am going to say, top 4 RD.
Now we've got more prospects. Gustav Lindstrom is the oldest. He'll be 22 in October, which seems crazy. He didn't look terrible in Detroit last year, but I'm a long ways away from saying he's legit. Anti Tuomisto? He hasn't played against anything resembling high quality competition. Realistically, where the heck would he fit if he did kind of turn into that big shot from the point defenseman? Gustav Berglund might be the most underrated prospect in the system. He's got some size. He's a good skater. And showed decent hockey sense. And there are some prospect watchers who like Seth Barton, the 21-year-old ready to start his junior year in college.
Bottom Line: We have two top 4 D, one of whom seems like a reasonable bet at being a top pairing guy.
You can find 3rd pairing defensemen anywhere, and we've got 3-4 prospects capable of turning into that.

Goalie
We've got nobody on the Wings who we can really expect to be here in 3-4 seasons.
Prospect-wise, we're pretty barren, too.
We need a starter and a backup.
Viktor Brattstrom, 23, had a nice season for Timra. He's 6'4. But is he a prospect?
Carter Gylander is a 6'5 goalie about to play his freshman year at Colgate. Who knows?
Jesper Eliasson, 20, had a rough year in a lower league in Sweden.
Keith Petruzzelli, 21, has been around a long time. He's gotten better every season in college. Shouldn't he be signed before his senior year begins??
Filip Larsson, 22, got beat up in Grand Rapids and improved in Toledo, but was still obviously lower in the depth charts than a couple guys with little shot at the NHL.
Bottom Line: We need a #1 and #2 and we have no reason to believe we have either in our system at the moment.

So, Our Needs
C: 1 or 2C.
W: Maybe a 2W?
LD: 1LD, 2LD
RD: None
G: 1G, 2G

Good needs assessment write-up. I think we can cross 2W off the list, assuming Zadina & Fabbri keep progressing offensively & improve defensively, they're not too far off consistent 50pt+ 2W's. Mantha & Bert entering their prime w/Larkin & having great chemistry should improve all their #'s as the team improves. Also, Veleno could end up a 2W/3C if he doesn't make it to 2C.

I'll give Larkin a vote of confidence on 1C unless he posts sub 60pt season(s). We do need a great 2C though, since Larkin likely won't be that 85-100pt+ All-star 1C we crave.

Not too bad: (3 big holes + 1 medium or small sized hole + 1 small hole)
2C
1LD, 2LD or 3LD (easy to find 5/6)
1G, 2G (easy to sign UFA, waiver, cap dump)

*If the Fabbri @ 2C is moderately successful (placeholder 2C), Veleno can flank him & Bert, also can take Dzone draws...nice combo of skill, grit, D & IQ etc. L2: Bert-Fabbri-Veleno. L1 Zadina-Larkin-AntMan

 

[Henkka]

So, Our Needs
C: 1 or 2C.
W: Maybe a 2W?
LD: 1LD, 2LD
RD: None
G: 1G, 2G

Signing LD Krug and G Lehner without losing any assets is the best way to buy extra time to develop a home-grown LD or the whole goalie tandem.

 

[Pavels Dog]

18th seems really low if he still considers Zadina and Hronek prospects.

Our prospect pool overall isn't as amazing as one would maybe hope (with several surefire stars in the pipeline). But I do think there's a lot to be excited about and a good mix.

We've been unfortunate with guys like Svechnikov and Berggren really struggling with injuries. Larsson and Cholo really regressed too. All these kids still have the chance to be NHLers though.

Let's hope 2020 is a great draft for us.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Albert Johansson

Skating: 55

I mean are you really watching some of these guys Pronman???

Rasmussen
Skating: 40

Huh???

I mean it obviously hurts your evaluation if you don't even understand some of these guys skill sets. I get it might have changed ranking them as pros, but if this is the same as his standard work on prospects for years, either of those tool grades are laughably hilarious. Like just really poor.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

The Zadina one gets me. It sounds like his evaluation is based on last year rather than this year.

 

[Hen Kolland]

The Zadina one gets me. It sounds like his evaluation is based on last year rather than this year.

It's funny because he actually degrades Zadina more and more every single year. I don't know how you come away from this most recent season and think LESS of Zadina than you did a year ago.

2018 Farm System Ranks: Elite NHL Prospect (top 10-15% at the position)
2019 Farm System Ranks: High-End Prospect (top line forward)
2020 Organizational Ranks: High-End/Very Good Bubble (top six, fringe top line)

 

[GettingYourMoms]

It's funny because he actually degrades Zadina more and more every single year. I don't know how you come away from this most recent season and think LESS of Zadina than you did a year ago.

2018 Farm System Ranks: Elite NHL Prospect (top 10-15% at the position)
2019 Farm System Ranks: High-End Prospect (top line forward)
2020 Organizational Ranks: High-End/Very Good Bubble (top six, fringe top line)

But but, everybody knows he's a bust.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Don't quite understand how a team like Minnesota ranks ahead of us.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Albert Johansson

Skating: 55

I mean are you really watching some of these guys Pronman???

Rasmussen
Skating: 40

Huh???

I mean it obviously hurts your evaluation if you don't even understand some of these guys skill sets. I get it might have changed ranking them as pros, but if this is the same as his standard work on prospects for years, either of those tool grades are laughably hilarious. Like just really poor.

I've said it before, but Pronman is someone you have to take with a grain of salt. The only useful hockey knowledge he writes is gifted to him by scouts. His personal talent assessments are generally garbage.

 

[izlez]

But but, everybody knows he's a bust.

As one of the most "anti-Zadina" people around, I've always thought Tatar would be a decent comparable for him (Detroit Red Wings Tatar, 40-50 points per year. Rather than the Tatar that just put up close to a point per game this season). So I don't know how you look at a consistently falling prospect ranking to a 2nd line winger and feel vindicated about a top-6 pick.

 

[SirloinUB]

I don’t believe this is as bad of news as it would feel on first glance. Yes, 18 isn’t great but it’s more due to the fact we lack current star power compared to what some of these other teams have. As far as prospects go, the 11 legit nhl players or better than Pronman gives us is deeper than any team he’s listed so far.

We also don’t have the current draft included which for obvious reasons is inconsistent with what is typically included in his summer rankings. If this were a true prospect ranking you’d remove the laine’s, Heiskanen’s, Makars, Matthews etc and we’d be trending to be in a similar spot (or better) as his 2019 rankings. Add in a top 5 pick and id bet we’d be a little higher.

Really, to be where we are with no drafted stars, no lottery luck and no 2020 top 5 pick I’d say our ranking is quite complimentary and speaks to a solid system.

Obviously, Yzerman and co have a lot of work ahead of them but I like the depth we have. We know we need some lottery luck to be a true contender but to have one of the deeper prospects pools speaks to the foundation we have in place.

For comparison, Scott Wheeler had the Red Wings at 9 in a true prospect ranking back in February.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

As one of the most "anti-Zadina" people around, I've always thought Tatar would be a decent comparable for him (Detroit Red Wings Tatar, 40-50 points per year. Rather than the Tatar that just put up close to a point per game this season). So I don't know how you look at a consistently falling prospect ranking to a 2nd line winger and feel vindicated about a top-6 pick.

I don't know why you think a guy who was pretty consistently ranked as the top goalscorer of his draft, as well as a consensus top 5 pick would only be a 40-50 point Tomas Tatar clone. They're nothing at all alike in playstyle. Zadina is a much better skater at a younger age, and is as good or better defensively at a younger age.

And why is Zadina's stock falling? He scored at about a 50 point pace in the AHL as an 18 year old and was pretty close to that pace in a shortened rookie campaign in Detroit as a 19-turned-20 year old. A Detroit team that was only watchable when he was on the ice, or Larkin's line was on the ice. It's only a matter of time before he cracks 70 points in a season with the talent he has.

Just because Pronman says Zadina's stock is falling does not make it true.

 

[NotLeddy]

These are organizational rankings of players 22 and younger, not prospects, which is why Hronek is in there

And very important context to Pronman's rankings- he overvalues skilled, flashy players and can't appreciate bigger, slower, more defensive-based players/prospects, and it's been a consistent thing with him since he has been a prospect journalist. I still think he's knowledgable and I value his input, but I can't put too much weight into his articles and his lack of enthusiasm about some of the prospects/young players that don't have very flashy highlight reels.

For example, I rememeber him being absolutely obsessed with MTL prospect Jesse Ylonen leading up to the 2018 draft, being very enthusiastic and considering him to be a bottom half first rounder. He has good numbers for a 20 year old in Liiga, and very well could be the player he believes he would be two years ago, but I haven't heard much about him in general since being drafted (aside from Pronman) as that quality of prospect.

 

[izlez]

Just because Pronman says Zadina's stock is falling does not make it true.

I mean, I agree. But the poster seemed to be using Pronman's rankings to support the idea that Zadina is NOT a bust (which maybe I misinterpreted)

 

[MBH]

When healthy, better than the center ranked 4th. I get people not liking the Rasmussen pick, but he's still showing more than Veleno, and was doing it in the middle of the ice in GR. Veleno might pass him some day, but other than not liking Rasmussen I don't see anything happening on the ice to justify Veleno being ranked higher.

Veleno has the skating, puck transport, zone entry and passing distribution to be a 2-3C.
Rasmussen doesn't.