Pre-Game Talk: The All Purpose Off Day Thread | Because 60 Minutes Just Isn't Enough

[Ogrezilla]

I completely agree with JR that Sullivan's hands are tied with Sprong, that's the problem here. You either play him above better players or you play him on a line where he won't be effective. Unless you get extended injuries to some of your top-6ers, I don't see that problem becoming any better.

What are the odds both Rust and Horny avoid extended injuries all year?

 

[Peat]

The issue is that the Penguins are committed to Rust, Hornqvist and Kessel for at least the next 4 years. Kessel's case was different, he was playing 2nd line minutes right out of the gate and was caught behind older players with only a year or 2 of control. Kessel was also way better than Sprong out of the gate and was projected to be a lot better.

They can uncommit from any of those in a heartbeat should they desire and Sprong's cheap enough that he can be carried along with them for the time being. On that front, I'm not seeing an argument to trade him.

I completely agree with JR that Sullivan's hands are tied with Sprong, that's the problem here. You either play him above better players or you play him on a line where he won't be effective. Unless you get extended injuries to some of your top-6ers, I don't see that problem becoming any better.

Rust has missed an average of 19 games per season in the last two seasons and Horny 12. Those aren't bad odds for him.

That's something I want to look up, because it's a good question. I can't remember many off the top of my head, a lot of prospects are only traded once they're on the train to bust-ville.

I'm gonna guess that's because very few teams want to lose out on a lottery ticket unless its for a win now move - even if they're getting one back.

And tbh, that's the main way I see us trading Sprong. As part of a package for a win now player.

 

[Empoleon8771]

What are the odds both Rust and Horny avoid extended injuries all year?

I think it's impossible to tell because I wouldn't consider either "injury prone". They're not like Kessel, who you know will be healthy, or Bennett, who you know will get hurt. Hornqvist has missed 12 games in each of the last 2 years, but he has played in 90% of games over his career. I think Rust is more likely to get hurt, but he has only had 2 serious injuries so far in his pro career I think. He was out for 6 weeks in 2017 and 4 weeks in 2018, but that's about all he has missed due to injury I think.

 

[Pancakes]

The issue is that the Penguins are committed to Rust, Hornqvist and Kessel for at least the next 4 years. Kessel's case was different, he was playing 2nd line minutes right out of the gate and was caught behind older players with only a year or 2 of control. Kessel was also way better than Sprong out of the gate and was projected to be a lot better.

Entirely possible one of Sprong/Hornqvist/Rust shifts to LW over the next few years. Or again that injuries pave the way for Sprong and he starts lighting it up and keeps his spot even when guys come back. It's not so hard to envision Horny or Rust getting hurt, Sprong getting moved up, Sprong scoring 5-10 goals while they're out, and then suddenly Sprong has that spot even when they come back because he's earned it.

You see that type of thing happen all the time with prospects.

Also possible Sprong could learn LW as well. I think there's more solutions available here than trading him or trading Rust/Horny/Kessel. I'd rather give it a year or two to play out before moving on from Sprong.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The thing with Sprong on LW is that if they viewed Sprong as a long term LWer, they would have moved him to LW by now. It makes no sense from a roster perspective or looking at Sprong's strengths for him to not be playing LW, but they've made no indication that they want to shift him over to LW. If they were even considering it a possibility, I think they would have had Sprong at LW by now. Not only in the NHL, but also in the AHL.

I think the reality of it is that they don't trust his play away from the puck at all, to the point where they don't even want to gamble on putting him on his off-wing. It doesn't matter that LW is a much bigger organization need, he'd be getting much better chances on LW and LW fits his style much better, they seem so concerned about his play away from the puck that they won't even consider it an option. It's stupid, but it is what it is.

 

[Pancakes]

The thing with Sprong on LW is that if they viewed Sprong as a long term LWer, they would have moved him to LW by now. It makes no sense from a roster perspective or looking at Sprong's strengths for him to not be playing LW, but they've made no indication that they want to shift him over to LW. If they were even considering it a possibility, I think they would have had Sprong at LW by now. Not only in the NHL, but also in the AHL.

I think the reality of it is that they don't trust his play away from the puck at all, to the point where they don't even want to gamble on putting him on his off-wing. It doesn't matter that LW is a much bigger organization need, he'd be getting much better chances on LW and LW fits his style much better, they seem so concerned about his play away from the puck that they won't even consider it an option. It's stupid, but it is what it is.

I don't think that precludes a long term move there. Keeping him on RW while he gets comfortable in the NHL and then moving him to LW eventually isn't a crazy idea.

Moving him to LW right now while he's already getting acclimated would make life even harder on him unless doing so meant that he was in our top six.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't think that precludes a long term move there. Keeping him on RW while he gets comfortable in the NHL and then moving him to LW eventually isn't a crazy idea.

Moving him to LW right now while he's already getting acclimated would make life even harder on him unless doing so meant that he was in our top six.

They would have played him on LW in the AHL had they intended on trying him out in the NHL as a LWer, I'd assume. They haven't shown any indication that they want to move him to LW, whether it be in the NHL or AHL.

 

[Peat]

They would have played him on LW in the AHL had they intended on trying him out in the NHL as a LWer, I'd assume. They haven't shown any indication that they want to move him to LW, whether it be in the NHL or AHL.

This. And they're not wildly keen on it with Rust either.

The odds on choice is for us trading a RW at some point in the relatively near future (i.e. before next season). Just no need to jump the gun. A fair exchange of prospects for, well, just about any position other RW would be useful for us - but unlikely.

And you can guarantee that if we did somehow swing it we'd trade Kessel in a final row the next summer because Murphy's Law sucks.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Would've been cool if Sprong was able to spend some time in WBS this year at LW...

 

[Pancakes]

They would have played him on LW in the AHL had they intended on trying him out in the NHL as a LWer, I'd assume. They haven't shown any indication that they want to move him to LW, whether it be in the NHL or AHL.

I think you're probably right but that doesn't mean one of our RWs won't be moved to LW in the next while.

Or that JR won't move one of them out. With all the smoke around Kessel last off season I have a feeling his days here are numbered. Then again, he's been playing so well not just in the playoffs but the regular season that I can't figure out how JR could possibly justify moving him. I don't care how much Sully hates him he's been so good here that there's little chance we'd win a trade moving him out.

 

[chethejet]

LA Kings and Ducks are both old, not fast and highly compensated. Pens need to move guys in their prime ala Kessel for picks and prospects. D is fine with Dumo, a healthy Schultz, Riikola, Oleksiac to go with Letang. Eventually it will come down to Sprong as a top 6 RW. If he shows he can play as a top 6 RW, then Rust Horny and him are a nice blend of age and bring different strengths to the team.

 

[Shady Machine]

But if you're trading him for another prospect, why does this matter? I don't think anyone would reasonably expect Sprong to bring back something of significant value. All he would bring back is something of lesser value or something that has the potential to be significant value.

Hey if you have an idea of a prospect that we can get for Sprong that solves a near term need more than scoring RW, I'm all ears. It just sounds like your original point was to trade him just to prevent him from losing more value.

 

[JTG]

LA Kings and Ducks are both old, not fast and highly compensated. Pens need to move guys in their prime ala Kessel for picks and prospects. D is fine with Dumo, a healthy Schultz, Riikola, Oleksiac to go with Letang. Eventually it will come down to Sprong as a top 6 RW. If he shows he can play as a top 6 RW, then Rust Horny and him are a nice blend of age and bring different strengths to the team.

Lol. No.

You don't move productive guys in their prime, specifically a guy who is only 31 and put up 92 points last year for picks and prospects.

This team is going to go through a rebuild and there is no way to avoid that. You ride this until the wheels fall off and then you start stocking up and starting over. When it's all said and done this team will have went to the playoffs ~20 years in a row.

 

[ColePens]

LA Kings and Ducks are both old, not fast and highly compensated. Pens need to move guys in their prime ala Kessel for picks and prospects. D is fine with Dumo, a healthy Schultz, Riikola, Oleksiac to go with Letang. Eventually it will come down to Sprong as a top 6 RW. If he shows he can play as a top 6 RW, then Rust Horny and him are a nice blend of age and bring different strengths to the team.

Trade Kessel? The guy who had 92 points last year? The guy who is almost leading our team in points again this year w/ only 2 years left on his contract after this at 6.8m? 6.8m when guys who got less than 40 pts are getting 4.5+m? The guy who was insanely important for our 2 cups we won?

Man I am a big big fan of Sprong, but Sprong couldn't sniff 90 points or hold Kessel's jockstrap if he tried right now. Kessel is like Letang, irreplaceable at this point. I understand why people make arguments to trade them, but it doesn't mean it will work. It's a gamble at best.

And goodness gracious coming off the Toronto game where I thought 81 was a star........ (wait for it) ..... DEFENSIVELY. We should hang tight on 81. At least for now.

 

[Shady Machine]

I think it's impossible to tell because I wouldn't consider either "injury prone". They're not like Kessel, who you know will be healthy, or Bennett, who you know will get hurt. Hornqvist has missed 12 games in each of the last 2 years, but he has played in 90% of games over his career. I think Rust is more likely to get hurt, but he has only had 2 serious injuries so far in his pro career I think. He was out for 6 weeks in 2017 and 4 weeks in 2018, but that's about all he has missed due to injury I think.

That's how life works for young players sometimes. He will get his turn and he needs to deliver when he gets it. Kapanen was an extra/4th liner and now got his chance due to Nylander holding out and is making the most of it. Hopefully Sprong does the same when Rust or Horny are injured for 10-20 games.

 

[Peat]

As someone who was vocally pro-trade Kessel in the Summer... no.

There was a case to be made when he was underwhelming compared to his potential at ES. There is no case to be made when he's at a ppg at ES. Maybe as the season goes on and the hot start wears off things change... but right now, Kessel is priceless for us. Particularly when buying in defensively.

 

[DegenX]

No idea what the team's practice schedule is like while they're out West, so this is a little late ...

Which was ...

 

[AuroraBorealis]

And goodness gracious coming off the Toronto game where I thought 81 was a star........ (wait for it) ..... DEFENSIVELY. We should hang tight on 81. At least for now.

Those 3rd period backchecks were f***ing inspirational man. Phil gives me the strength to carry on.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

As someone who was vocally pro-trade Kessel in the Summer... no.

There was a case to be made when he was underwhelming compared to his potential at ES. There is no case to be made when he's at a ppg at ES. Maybe as the season goes on and the hot start wears off things change... but right now, Kessel is priceless for us. Particularly when buying in defensively.

Don't really understand the ES argument. Phil was a big reason why the PP was #1 in the league. The PP got us into the playoffs, with our meager bottom 6 not pulling its weight. We only got in by 4 points.
There is a case to be made in the playoffs when the average PIM's goes down, but meh.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Don't really understand the ES argument. Phil was a big reason why the PP was #1 in the league. The PP got us into the playoffs, with our meager bottom 6 not pulling its weight. We only got in by 4 points.
There is a case to be made in the playoffs when the average PIM's goes down, but meh.

People say this, but they really don't. The number of penalties committed and ignored goes up, but last I checked the powerplay chances stay right about the same.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

People say this, but they really don't. The number of penalties committed and ignored goes up, but last I checked the powerplay chances stay right about the same.

Well then all the more reason to keep Phil, right? This team's window is like 2-3 more years. Trading a north of P/GP player who's making only 6.8 - and is an awesome playoff performer - makes no sense to me. His contract lines up with our Cup window perfectly. What would we get in return anyway? No point in getting futures now. If it's not a top pairing caliber shut down defenseman then it's not worth it, and no one would give us that.

I'm not saying that you suggested it, but a lot of people did this summer. Woulda really sucked to lose him.

 

[JTG]

No idea what the team's practice schedule is like while they're out West, so this is a little late ...

Which was ...

I'd like to see Cullen with Brassard.

Simon is an anchor on whatever line he's on right now. We really need some jam at the wing spot in our bottom 6. The 3LW...we could use a guy who brings some energy and jam.

 

[Peat]

People say this, but they really don't. The number of penalties committed and ignored goes up, but last I checked the powerplay chances stay right about the same.

Yeah, that sounds right to me. Its not like Phil doesn't have 28 PP points in the last 61 post-season games after all.

To answer @Riikolas Revenge 's question -

My logic was that we had a lot of high end PP talent here even without Phil and that it would still function well. I don't know for sure, it would be a risk, but that's what I think.

Meanwhile, if you got the right deal, trading Kessel would allow you to two players that could really boost the team at ES. At the time, Kessel looked like a bad fit there, and I figured a lesser player with a better fit could perform pretty much just as well, plus you've got another player.

However, it looks like that trade return was unrealistic after all, and with Kessel kicking ass it looks a bit foolish. Although I think you can still see the roster imbalances in terms of fit that made the idea attractive.

And now you know my logic and no mean need be said about trading Kessel.

 

[Gurglesons]

Well then all the more reason to keep Phil, right? This team's window is like 2-3 more years. Trading a north of P/GP player who's making only 6.8 - and is an awesome playoff performer - makes no sense to me. His contract lines up with our Cup window perfectly. What would we get in return anyway? No point in getting futures now. If it's not a top pairing caliber shut down defenseman then it's not worth it, and no one would give us that.

I'm not saying that you suggested it, but a lot of people did this summer. Woulda really sucked to lose him.

There are very easy ways you win a Kessel trade. If you bring in a younger LW that would’ve produced around 30-40 pts at ES you could’ve won it.

If Sprong being in a top six/nine role allowed him to flourish you could’ve won it.

If you got a player like Brodin to solidify a second pairing with Schultz you could’ve won it.

Trading Kessel was never about Kessel being a bad player, it’s about his age, the contract and extending our window. With Kessel our window is 2-4 years. With younger players it could possibly be bigger especially if you got say Domi + 5th overall for Kessel + Sheary or something.

Much like Letang, there is little harm in keeping Kessel around. They likely justify their contracts. The issue is when you have Hornqvist, Kessel, Crosby, Malkin, Letang and Johnson all with term and past 30, one of those players will likely crash in terms of value.

 

[Gurglesons]

I'd like to see Cullen with Brassard.

Simon is an anchor on whatever line he's on right now. We really need some jam at the wing spot in our bottom 6. The 3LW...we could use a guy who brings some energy and jam.

I think that line should be good if they actually stick with it..

Simon is certainly underperforming.. but I think a lot of that is usage just like Sprong.