The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VIII:

[Ail]

I think everyone here knows I am a proponent of advance stats and have been for a long time. Perhaps I should clarify what I meant as it was not to degrade advanced metrics as a whole and crticize looking at the underlying numbers, which I wholeheartedly agree are important for the reasons you stated. I’m not trying to start a war or rile anyone up.

That was geared more towards the tantrums (mostly one person in particular) about where the Rangers as a team fall compared to the rest of the league. I am not concerned at all this season, and possibly even next as to whether or not this team as a whole drives possession on a game to game basis. I am concerned with what rookies are or are not driving possession however, as that is worth evaluation and merits discussion.

No offense meant.

 

[silverfish]

I think everyone here knows I am a proponent of advance stats and have been for a long time. Perhaps I should clarify what I meant as it was not to degrade advanced metrics as a whole and crticize looking at the underlying numbers, which I wholeheartedly agree are important for the reasons you stated. I’m not trying to start a war or rile anyone up.

That was geared more towards the tantrums (mostly one person in particular) about where the Rangers as a team fall compared to the rest of the league. I am not concerned at all this season, and possibly even next as to whether or not this team as a whole drives possession on a game to game basis. I am concerned with what rookies are or are not driving possession however, as that is worth evaluation and merits discussion.

No offense meant.

All fair.

I think it's just as fair for this person to be worried, or annoyed. There are a decent amount of players on this current roster who are supposed to still be here when the rebuild is done. Some of whom are supposed to be major components of the future of this team, or at least that's the way I am personally perceiving it in the FO's eyes. I could be wrong. I'm wrong a lot.

With that in mind, if the team as a whole is struggling, in theory, you could write it off as some of the "dead weight" holding players back, but it's an optimistic viewpoint. The reality is, a big part of the 'foundation' of this team going forward really isn't that good, and it's a failure on the part of the FO, who have had the ammo to make it a good team, and didn't. Now they're reloading. But it's the same FO that failed time and time again leading the reload. I empathize with the users on this forum who don't have the confidence in this FO to properly handle this situation.

To your initial point, yes, time will tell, but that doesn't mean we can't be frustrated with where we are currently. And this, where we are currently, the driving force behind having poor advanced metrics thus far in this young season.

I'd much rather see the team do good things on the ice, have those good things backed up in the underlying numbers, but just maybe lack the skill for it to come to fruition on the scoresheet. Instead of being bad everywhere.

Not sure if anything in this post makes sense, and let me continue to load up and time and time again with that everything in here is of course, in my opinion.

 

[East Coast Bias]

I certainly don't think the stats are meaningless, but I think we're losing serious context here. 5 games doesn't tell us anything. It's 5 games. With a new coach. With new players.

If we're getting shelled every night in March, I'll understand. But its way too early to start stressing this. It doesn't mean the system will work, because we have no idea.

 

[Ail]

Right, still lots of variables at play and maybe I am being too optimistic writing off the early failures statistically as a burn in period and a lack of clear direction by the front office. I think by this offseason we will have a much better idea who is seemingly in the long term plans and who is not regarding the veteran players and the team will have a season under Quinn to erase bad habits and adjust to new, hopefully good ones.

I mean ideally yeah we want them outshooting opponents every night win or lose but I just can’t bring myself to start drawing conclusions and getting frustrated this early.

 

[silverfish]

Right, still lots of variables at play and maybe I am being too optimistic writing off the early failures statistically as a burn in period and a lack of clear direction by the front office. I think by this offseason we will have a much better idea who is seemingly in the long term plans and who is not regarding the veteran players and the team will have a season under Quinn to erase bad habits and adjust to new, hopefully good ones.

I mean ideally yeah we want them outshooting opponents every night win or lose but I just can’t bring myself to start drawing conclusions and getting frustrated this early.

I think this take is just as reasonable as someone looking at the fact we've been outshot 4/5 games and being uncomfortable/nervous/annoyed/worried.

Two people are going to look at the same thing and see it differently.

 

[silverfish]

Micah has an interest thread today on shift starts, but this is my favorite part of it...



It's really interesting that coaches are more fluid in the O zone than they are in the D zone. I think this is one of those things that we likely already knew, but it's really cool to see it proven.

 

[silverfish]

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Just to double check, can anyone tell me what average xG- numbers look like?

 

[silverfish]

Just to double check, can anyone tell me what average xG- numbers look like?

50%?

Not sure what you mean...

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

50%?

Not sure what you mean...

Now that I checked, I’m not sure either. I think I was reading some columns and numbers wrong last night

 

[Machinehead]

We still suck at xGA, but now were just a bottom 5 team instead of an actual god damn AHL team. (And not a good one)

Pretty much what I expected.

 

[Machinehead]

Just to double check, can anyone tell me what average xG- numbers look like?

Well I guess, as silverfish said, zero is average

It's a bigger range than corsi. +7-10 Rel is elite, and obviously -7-10 Rel is gar-bahj.

With corsi it's more like +/- 5-7.

 

[Machinehead]

Then again, zero is really replacement level, not average.

I personally feel like "average" and "replacement level" are very different things.

Does that make any sense?

Then again, again, so many below replacement level players exist. So maybe zero is average.

@silverfish, what do you think?

 

[Irishguy42]

Then again, zero is really replacement level, not average.

I personally feel like "average" and "replacement level" are very different things.

Does that make any sense?

Then again, again, so many below replacement level players exist. So maybe zero is average.

@silverfish, what do you think?

Yes, it does.

"Average" is exactly what it is, mathematically. It is a defined calculation.

"Replacement level" is something that the analytics community, as a whole, kind of defined themselves mathematically. It may end up being close to "average," but it's not the same.

To me, at least. Does that make sense?

 

[Machinehead]

Yes, it does.

"Average" is exactly what it is, mathematically. It is a defined calculation.

"Replacement level" is something that the analytics community, as a whole, kind of defined themselves mathematically. It may end up being close to "average," but it's not the same.

To me, at least. Does that make sense?

Yeah, that makes sense.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Everything makes sense, this is the most harmony I've seen on HF in a while.

 

[silverfish]

I like baseball's definition of replacement level which I think is anyone on a league minimum contract? I'd aggregate the metrics of those players, and that should tell you how a replacement level player should perform. Unfortunately, this is the NHL, so you have guys who are probably good signing league minimum deals, and skewing that number. But, that's important, because if you can get actually good people at league minimum, well, you should be doing that.

In any case, I totally agree that average > replacement level.

 

[SA16]

You can't use average as replacement level because it makes slightly below average players who get a lot of playing time appear to to be worse players than way below average players who get limited playing time. If you have a baseball player worth -0.01 WAR/Game and he plays every game he would put up -1.62 WAA. If you had a baseball player worth -0.05 WAR/Game but he's used as a bench player and plays only 30 games he's only -1.50 WAA so it makes him better in that even though he's far worse.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Well I guess, as silverfish said, zero is average

It's a bigger range than corsi. +7-10 Rel is elite, and obviously -7-10 Rel is gar-bahj.

With corsi it's more like +/- 5-7.

At this point I’m pretty sure I just confused myself by reading different column heads with columns of numbers.

But, Chytil’s numbers look pretty good so far (I know, SSS) eh?

 

[Machinehead]

At this point I’m pretty sure I just confused myself by reading different column heads with columns of numbers.

But, Chytil’s numbers look pretty good so far (I know, SSS) eh?

I've liked Chytil so far. I think the goals will come.

 

[silverfish]

 

[DanielBrassard]

Team played pretty well. About as well as possible.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I know it’s early but man Skjei has been not great

I don’t know how anyone takes him off the table if Toronto wants him for Nylander

 

[Bob Richards]

Then again, zero is really replacement level, not average.

I personally feel like "average" and "replacement level" are very different things.

Does that make any sense?

Then again, again, so many below replacement level players exist. So maybe zero is average.

@silverfish, what do you think?

I can't exactly speak for hockey but in baseball its definitely a pretty common misconception that 0 WAR is a streamline, average player. Your basic, solid starter quality dude is actually generally around 2 WAR.

0 WAR is where your production can be replaced by a gigantic majority of available options in the minor leagues or the FA market.

And then of course Chris Davis is the bubonic plague.

 

[Blue Blooded]

I know it’s early but man Skjei has been not great

I don’t know how anyone takes him off the table if Toronto wants him for Nylander

To be fair, he hasn't really been put into the easiest of situations with Adam McQuaid and Neal "all my worst nightmares have come true" Pionk as his partners: