The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

[silverfish]

I read up on Manny's xG model every now and then, since I'm just like 15 hours of work away from getting my own, whenever it is I actually sit down and do it, and I think I just came to realize that each shot type is its own model... In the footnotes:

Each of the six shot types6 provided by the NHL forms its own category, and these are further subsetted by rebound and non-rebound. Only unblocked shots are used due to the unfortunate fact blocked shot coordinates are unavailable.7 These twelve shot sub-types are regressed independently according to the remaining variables. The rationale here is that each shot subset should respond to the variables differently. Namely, distance and angle do not influence slap shot quality in the same manner as they do, say, deflections. In addition, the relationship between goal expectancy and distance or angle are not assumed to be linear. That is to say, the model is not bound by the idea that shot quality changes at a constant rate along the scales of distance and angle. I found these modifications improved the model’s ability to assess goal expectancy.8

Shot Quality And Expected Goals: Part I | Corsica

So instead of one massive input in the model, he's subsetting by shot type, and then again by rebound and non-rebound, and then forming their own unique regression.

I don't want to do that, that's too much work.

 

[Machinehead]

John Carlson the last three years

+4.34 CA/60
+.22 GA/60
1.09 p/60

And that's against very pedestrian competition with Niskanen taking the tough assignments.

On July 1st, he's going to get the worst contract in the NHL.

 

[Ghost of jas]

John Carlson the last three years

+4.34 CA/60
+.22 GA/60
1.09 p/60

And that's against very pedestrian competition with Niskanen taking the tough assignments.

On July 1st, he's going to get the worst contract in the NHL.

Likely from one of the locals...and not the Rangers.

 

[YoSoyLalo]

John Carlson the last three years

+4.34 CA/60
+.22 GA/60
1.09 p/60

And that's against very pedestrian competition with Niskanen taking the tough assignments.

On July 1st, he's going to get the worst contract in the NHL.

Niskanen is way better than Carlson and by far the Caps best defender.

Schmidt is also a better defenseman than Carlson.

@ me.

 

[Machinehead]

Niskanen is way better than Carlson and by far the Caps best defender.

Schmidt is also a better defenseman than Carlson.

@ me.

Nick Holden is a better defenseman than Carlson.

 

[silverfish]

Why did I have Anaheim in the conference finals? Blinded by Manson.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Why did I have Anaheim in the conference finals? Blinded by Manson.

They were being propped up by Gibson all year, and SJ has been on a tear since the Kane trade. Sharks are lethal, and they don’t even have Jumbo yet

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Why did I have Anaheim in the conference finals? Blinded by Manson.

I did too, that half of the western conference I got completely wrong. But on the bright side of it, San Jose vs Vegas could be a really fun second round matchup

 

[silverfish]

They were being propped up by Gibson all year, and SJ has been on a tear since the Kane trade. Sharks are lethal, and they don’t even have Jumbo yet

I did too, that half of the western conference I got completely wrong. But on the bright side of it, San Jose vs Vegas could be a really fun second round matchup

Yeah, I guess I should've done more research than just being like: I like Josh Manson!

Still confident in my WPG champion pick.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Yeah, I guess I should've done more research than just being like: I like Josh Manson!

Still confident in my WPG champion pick.

I went with a NSH/VGK WCF with NSH winning. Nashville has the season series, but those games were all close, so I’d expect their series to go 7. I think it basically just boils down to whether Rinne or Helly don’t shit the bed.

 

[silverfish]

I went with a NSH/VGK WCF with NSH winning. Nashville has the season series, but those games were all close, so I’d expect their series to go 7. I think it basically just boils down to whether Rinne or Helly don’t **** the bed.

Vegas making the WCF would be such an embarrassment to this league.

Hell, Vegas making the playoffs at all is an embarrassment.

This team is a cast of players that GMs castoff. Some GMs even paid Vegas to take these players. I mean... what the actual f***.

And it was pretty much unilaterally agreed that McPhee could have had a better team than he ended up with.

Every GM in this league sucks.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Vegas making the WCF would be such an embarrassment to this league.

Hell, Vegas making the playoffs at all is an embarrassment.

This team is a cast of players that GMs castoff. Some GMs even paid Vegas to take these players. I mean... what the actual ****.

And it was pretty much unilaterally agreed that McPhee could have had a better team than he ended up with.

Every GM in this league sucks.

I mean, they’re the sum of their parts. Did Tallon’s stupidity and Bill Karlsson becoming Mike Bossy help? Obviously, but they were coached well to be a really good defensive team. They were built from their net out, and it worked for them.

 

[silverfish]

I mean, they’re the sum of their parts. Did Tallon’s stupidity and Bill Karlsson becoming Mike Bossy help? Obviously, but they were coached well to be a really good defensive team. They were built from their net out, and it worked for them.

Seriously. Tallon. Tallon paid VGK to take Smith by giving them JAM because they needed to protect Petrovic. Alex f***ing Petrovic. Alex Petrovic who skated 5D minutes for the Panthers this year.

I don't understand how these people get away with this.

 

[YoSoyLalo]

No one talks about Boston exposing C. Miller over K. Miller but that’s a lolcow move.

 

[Mac n Gs]

@silverfish because some GMs are just dumb and hockey makes no sense. Tallon also made some atrocious picks too, like taking Lindberg over Grabner/Fast.

No one talks about Boston exposing C. Miller over K. Miller but that’s a lolcow move.

OH HEY MAC N GS, REMIND ME AGAIN WHO I SAID WOULD BE A BREAKOUT D THIS YEAR. OH WAIT, IT WAS COLIN MILLER.

 

[YoSoyLalo]

Thought we protected Fast

 

[silverfish]

@silverfish because some GMs are just dumb and hockey makes no sense. Tallon also made some atrocious picks too, like taking Lindberg over Grabner/Fast.

I understood, and still understand, the Lindberg over Grabner/Fast pick. I don't think McPhee expected to compete in year 1, which explains why no Grabner. You don't want to take a pending UFA. And then it boiled down to Fast or Lindberg. They were comparable last year, as far as I remember, so you go with the center. Either way, the Rangers were set up in great shape for expansion, which is mostly because their depth was shit.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I understood, and still understand, the Lindberg over Grabner/Fast pick. I don't think McPhee expected to compete in year 1, which explains why no Grabner. You don't want to take a pending UFA. And then it boiled down to Fast or Lindberg. They were comparable last year, as far as I remember, so you go with the center. Either way, the Rangers were set up in great shape for expansion, which is mostly because their depth was ****.

Eh that makes one of us, but I’m happy that GMGM made that call. Fast’s injury definitely helped us too, and it led to us getting a nice haul for Grabner at the deadline

 

[Irishguy42]

Thought we protected Fast

No. He was left unprotected.

 

[silverfish]

Eh that makes one of us, but I’m happy that GMGM made that call. Fast’s injury definitely helped us too, and it led to us getting a nice haul for Grabner at the deadline

2015-2017 aggregated, 5v5, Corsica.Hockey.

Spoiler

A == Fast. B == Lindberg

 

[JimmyG89]

I understood, and still understand, the Lindberg over Grabner/Fast pick. I don't think McPhee expected to compete in year 1, which explains why no Grabner. You don't want to take a pending UFA. And then it boiled down to Fast or Lindberg. They were comparable last year, as far as I remember, so you go with the center. Either way, the Rangers were set up in great shape for expansion, which is mostly because their depth was ****.

Lindberg was also able to play some LW. That had to help as well.

New team with the likes of Karlsson, Haula, Bellemare, and Eakin as centers. Lindberg was good protection to have. Eakin and Bellemare aren't worldbeaters. He didn't play better than them.

They have all of those players under deals or control for next season too. Wonder if he'll be considered for a trade. Glass and Suzuki have to be considered for roster spots next season.

 

[Mac n Gs]

2015-2017 aggregated, 5v5, Corsica.Hockey.

Spoiler

A == Fast. B == Lindberg

Chalk it up to my personal bias then. I was correct in the long run anyways

 

[silverfish]

Chalk it up to my personal bias then. I was correct in the long run anyways

This year, at least

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I don’t want to absolve Tallon for a terrible off season, but I vaguely remember a report that the Panthers owner ordered him to cut $5m in salary last off season. I only really remember it in context of people here (spec thread) wanting to trade for one of their defensemen

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

San Jose is sneaky good. They have depth scoring you need to win in the playoffs

Anaheim’s best guys are just so broken down and slow.

I’m going to game 4 tomorrow, hopefully the Sharks lock it up