The Advanced Stats Thread Episode IX

GoAwayPanarin

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Haha, I think that guy had pretty deaf ears himself. I tried to explain even the most basic things to him -- but it was like talking to a wall.

There will always be guys like that at this place. All coaches and GMs and everyone are tremendous idiots and don't understand a thing and they are super confident and make all kinds of crazy predictions and think they know it all, then after a few years they get a record. If there wasn't an archive at this place these guys would all still be posting here.

Its too bad that they didn't listen. A few of them had ambitions and were really smart, and I went out of my way to try to teach them stuff that are established facts today. They would have been ahead of the curve had they listened, but...

ehhhh silv was a ton of things, unable to admit when he was wrong as not one of those things.
 

ManUtdTobbe

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Haha, I think that guy had pretty deaf ears himself. I tried to explain even the most basic things to him -- but it was like talking to a wall.

There will always be guys like that at this place. All coaches and GMs and everyone are tremendous idiots and don't understand a thing and they are super confident and make all kinds of crazy predictions and think they know it all, then after a few years they get a record. If there wasn't an archive at this place these guys would all still be posting here.

Its too bad that they didn't listen. A few of them had ambitions and were really smart, and I went out of my way to try to teach them stuff that are established facts today. They would have been ahead of the curve had they listened, but...
This is a laughable post. You didn’t go out of your way tryin to teach anyone anything. You went out of your way writing as many long posts of bullshit as possible filled with your extreme arrogance.
 
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Blue Blooded

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Haha, I think that guy had pretty deaf ears himself. I tried to explain even the most basic things to him -- but it was like talking to a wall.

There will always be guys like that at this place. All coaches and GMs and everyone are tremendous idiots and don't understand a thing and they are super confident and make all kinds of crazy predictions and think they know it all, then after a few years they get a record. If there wasn't an archive at this place these guys would all still be posting here.

Its too bad that they didn't listen. A few of them had ambitions and were really smart, and I went out of my way to try to teach them stuff that are established facts today. They would have been ahead of the curve had they listened, but...
Trashing a poster who isn't even here to defend himself is an exceedingly bad look. Are you going to do Kershaw next?

In addition, Silverfish was one of the few guys who actually changed his opinions with new information. I remember back in 2013-2014 he was my main opponent on the other side of the Strålman-Girardi argument.

And it's sure is annoying with an archive of how correct you've been proven? The methodology you deride is exactly how you could see that Strålman was likely a top pairing guy already in the summer of 2013, that DeAngelo was a top prospect when the league seemed to have written him off or that Shattenkirk wasn't "done" as a top NHL D when we bought him out - to name just a few instances from the top of my head.
 

GoAwayPanarin

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Trashing a poster who isn't even here to defend himself is an exceedingly bad look. Are you going to do Kershaw next?

In addition, Silverfish was one of the few guys who actually changed his opinions with new information. I remember back in 2013-2014 he was my main opponent on the other side of the Strålman-Girardi argument.

And it's sure is annoying with an archive of how correct you've been proven? The methodology you deride is exactly how you could see that Strålman was likely a top pairing guy already in the summer of 2013, that DeAngelo was a top prospect when the league seemed to have written him off or that Shattenkirk wasn't "done" as a top NHL D when we bought him out - to name just a few instances from the top of my head.

There is never a bad time to trash Kershaw (Who btw, is back under a different name.)
 

East Coast Bias

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This years Rangers have the worst xGA of every team since they started tracking the stat.

No problem with Ruff though.

Every time someone suggests we're going to make the playoffs, I just picture one of so many graphs where we are in the outer limits of our own stratosphere in the BAD section.
 

SnowblindNYR

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So I think advanced stats are a great thing for the game. But here's what I hate about them. They make me miserable. There are 4 scenarios of advanced stats.

1) Advanced stats are good, record is good.

I'm happy, maybe happier than if advanced stats weren't good.

2) Advanced stats are good, record is bad.

I'm frustrated and frankly the record is still the bottom line.

3) Advanced stats are bad, record is bad.

I'm even more frustrated because this shows that my team deserved to suck and they suck by yet another metric.

4) Advanced stats are bad, record is good.

I'm not really that happy about the record because I feel like it's been done with smoke and mirrors.

So 3 out of 4 scenarios I'm miserable. With no advanced stats it's 2 out of 4. So no wonder Machinehead is on the ledge in every one of his posts. You literally can't win unless ONE scenario comes up our of FOUR.
 
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Ola

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Trashing a poster who isn't even here to defend himself is an exceedingly bad look. Are you going to do Kershaw next?

In addition, Silverfish was one of the few guys who actually changed his opinions with new information. I remember back in 2013-2014 he was my main opponent on the other side of the Strålman-Girardi argument.

And it's sure is annoying with an archive of how correct you've been proven? The methodology you deride is exactly how you could see that Strålman was likely a top pairing guy already in the summer of 2013, that DeAngelo was a top prospect when the league seemed to have written him off or that Shattenkirk wasn't "done" as a top NHL D when we bought him out - to name just a few instances from the top of my head.

ehhhh silv was a ton of things, unable to admit when he was wrong as not one of those things.

He would have been a dollar millionaire today would he have listened to me, do you realize what an opportunity he threw away???
giphy.gif
 

Filthy Dangles

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You mean Silverfish?

Let's just say that there was a lot of "falling on deaf ears" here...

I went back through an iteration of this thread and saw they had a twitter and website with his own domain name, both are gone. usually a sign of getting hired but I guess they just got tired of it and/or maybe found a hobby/life.
 

Ola

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@Blue Blooded In all seriousness, metrics can of course be a great tool. But the ‘noise’ is just so significant that you cannot Corsi Scout, that is all, and that has been obvious for years.

I just don’t have much to spare for the ‘earth is flat’-type.
 

Blue Blooded

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@Blue Blooded In all seriousness, metrics can of course be a great tool. But the ‘noise’ is just so significant that you cannot Corsi Scout, that is all, and that has been obvious for years.

I just don’t have much to spare for the ‘earth is flat’-type.
I'm never sure what you include in the term "corsi scouting". What would be most clear is if you provided examples of moves that were in your opinion based on corsi scouting and how they turned out.
 

GoAwayPanarin

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@Blue Blooded In all seriousness, metrics can of course be a great tool. But the ‘noise’ is just so significant that you cannot Corsi Scout, that is all, and that has been obvious for years.

I just don’t have much to spare for the ‘earth is flat’-type.

Who has suggested that it is?

Yes, there have been guys in the past who use metrics as the be all end all (the aforementioned Cassa... ahem, Kershaw was one of them) but I don't think those guys really exist anymore.

If you're the worst in the league in something, that is not good. This team has had horrrrible shots/chances against metrics for a long while now. These type of stats make it easier to identify which players are the main culprits for said deficiencies that may not be all to obvious to the naked eye (See: All the people who think Staal is still top 6 worthy.)
 
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Ola

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Your continued presence in this thread is pointless and malignant

Or it’s the complete opposite, maybe relevant topics on a relevant level could be discussed in this thread?

Anyone who have tried to contextualize anything in this thread have been attacked and there are rarely any meaningless discussions as a direct result of it.
 

Bob Richards

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Or it’s the complete opposite, maybe relevant topics on a relevant level could be discussed in this thread?

Anyone who have tried to contextualize anything in this thread have been attacked and there are rarely any meaningless discussions as a direct result of it.

No there is no discussion with you. Your entire poster persona is writing out extremely long winded, word salad nonsense and all you do in this thread is applaud yourself for how smart you think you are and how dumb everyone else is.

"I went out of my way to try to teach them stuff that are established facts today. They would have been ahead of the curve had they listened, but..."

Imagine being this self important. Its a hockey message board. Chill out and stick to accusing Kevin Shattenkirk for parading his newborn around to avoid being bought out lmfao
 

Ola

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I'm never sure what you include in the term "corsi scouting". What would be most clear is if you provided examples of moves that were in your opinion based on corsi scouting and how they turned out.

There have been plenty of fans here who have done nothing but Corsi Scout. Check stats and form an opinion on a player based on it.

Look at Pionk. Winnipeg fans are coming out en masse saying that he is much better than Trouba because Pionk has great metrics there. Here in NY he was extremely awful, and to a large extent those opinions were based on his metrics (no coaches agreed with it, at least).

That is Corsi Scouting.

On Pionk for example, I think the truth lies in between those extremes. Same without Trouba. I think we need to be able to discuss these things. Why did Pionk go from one of the worst Ds in the league metric wise to one of the best over night? What does the number say us and what don’t they say?

Myers is another example, worst ever in Winnipeg according to their fans and now Nucks thanks claims that he is the best UFA D signing since Chara. Both extreme views based on Corsi Scouting,
 
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Ola

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No there is no discussion with you. Your entire poster persona is writing out extremely long winded, word salad nonsense and all you do in this thread is applaud yourself for how smart you think you are and how dumb everyone else is.

"I went out of my way to try to teach them stuff that are established facts today. They would have been ahead of the curve had they listened, but..."

Imagine being this self important. Its a hockey message board. Chill out and stick to accusing Kevin Shattenkirk for parading his newborn around to avoid being bought out lmfao

Yeah keep making personal attacks when you were proven wrong, way to go!

And maybe the talk about him becoming a millionaire if he listened to me was a bit of an exaggeration trying to take some edge of things... But I am sure you got that.
 

Ola

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Who has suggested that it is?

Yes, there have been guys in the past who use metrics as the be all end all (the aforementioned Cassa... ahem, Kershaw was one of them) but I don't think those guys really exist anymore.

If you're the worst in the league in something, that is not good. This team has had horrrrible shots/chances against metrics for a long while now. These type of stats make it easier to identify which players are the main culprits for said deficiencies that may not be all to obvious to the naked eye (See: All the people who think Staal is still top 6 worthy.)

Yeah I agree and there are certainly issues to be dealt with.

One thing I have a problem with is, according to these stats Trouba completely sucks. I don’t think he does. Pionk were completely horrible last season according to the stats, now he has done a 180’ and have a fantastic metrical foot print for Winnipeg.

The explanation for this is simple, the top lines that we often face play fantastic hockey and the units we assemble to face them cannot handle that. This explanation have been shut down because some math professor in Vancouver claims that QoO matters much less than what one might think. I think we conclusively can say that this is not true for the Ds that have the assignment Trouba have now, for example. JMHO.

I understand that many feel that anyone expressing a view like that must be chased of the board, maybe I am wrong and Pionk became extremely good over night and Trouba became one of the worst Ds over night when we got him, but it’s just my take.
 

Irishguy42

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I went back through an iteration of this thread and saw they had a twitter and website with his own domain name, both are gone. usually a sign of getting hired but I guess they just got tired of it and/or maybe found a hobby/life.
More the "tired" bit. "Screaming into the wind" comes to mind. He let his leases on website go and decided to go dark on Twitter (tho he admittedly wasn't *too* active on it)

Also just enjoyed Giants football (god bless) and college basketball more than watching the Rangers FO squander the last of Hank's prime and then stumble through this rebuild. Which is totally understandable.
 

Mac n Gs

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Yeah I agree and there are certainly issues to be dealt with.

One thing I have a problem with is, according to these stats Trouba completely sucks. I don’t think he does. Pionk were completely horrible last season according to the stats, now he has done a 180’ and have a fantastic metrical foot print for Winnipeg.

The explanation for this is simple, the top lines that we often face play fantastic hockey and the units we assemble to face them cannot handle that. This explanation have been shut down because some math professor in Vancouver claims that QoO matters much less than what one might think. I think we conclusively can say that this is not true for the Ds that have the assignment Trouba have now, for example. JMHO.

I understand that many feel that anyone expressing a view like that must be chased of the board, maybe I am wrong and Pionk became extremely good over night and Trouba became one of the worst Ds over night when we got him, but it’s just my take.

Trouba's stats do not say this at all, and it's obvious that a big chunk of his poor metrics early on were because he was tasked with carrying a struggling rookie in Hajek in a heavy defensive usage role. Since he was paired with Skjei, they show us exactly what he has been this whole time: a guy that's high-event and generates as much offense as he lets up. Does he show some really good defensive moments? Yes, but more often than not, he's going to be a guy that can overcompensate for any deficiencies by being able to generate enough offense to break even.

Re: Pionk, he was bad here and it's been said countless times that a big chunk of it was usage related. Why are we re-litigating this same argument? No one ignores how players will look when they change systems and roles. I feel like you're grossly oversimplifying this a bit here.
 
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Ola

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agreed. and if you're going to lose games, they might as well be wide open chancefests.

I'm certainly not left bored watching our games.

Yeah, and I think Gorton prefer us error in that regard with a young team instead of being too defensive.

But I am getting more and more convinced that the style Chicago played and had a lot of success with and AV tried to implement in certain regards in NY, how Babcock coached in Toronto — or even less extreme variations of it — is going to be really hard to win with.

I think the best way to play right now probably is to be really conservative when you defend deep. We can talk about layers and what not, but ultimately a lot of it comes down to not really pressuring the puck hard.

You will give up some offense, but there are pros and cons with everything.
 

Ola

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Trouba's stats do not say this at all, and it's obvious that a big chunk of his poor metrics early on were because he was tasked with carrying a struggling rookie in Hajek in a heavy defensive usage role. Since he was paired with Skjei, they show us exactly what he has been this whole time: a guy that's high-event and generates as much offense as he lets up. Does he show some really good defensive moments? Yes, but more often than not, he's going to be a guy that can overcompensate for any deficiencies by being able to generate enough offense to break even.

Re: Pionk, he was bad here and it's been said countless times that a big chunk of it was usage related. Why are we re-litigating this same argument? No one ignores how players will look when they change systems and roles. I feel like you're grossly oversimplifying this a bit here.

I agree, and re Trouba, I am not saying that at all. Just more or less repeating what Winnipeg fans were saying in the thread claiming they won that trade. Ie you can obviously make that argument.
 

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