The Advanced Stats Thread Episode IX

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
Jan 21, 2011
141,276
109,811
NYC
I don’t know if this counts as advanced stats or not, but I’ve been trying for the past hour to find a certain stat, and no luck. I’m trying to find the percentage of shot attempts that get on net, specifically for defensemen, since they are usually shooting from further out. Whether the shot ends up being a save or goal doesn’t matter. @Machinehead I know you probably know where I can find this. If so, that would be great.
I don't know that there is anyone who actually tracks that. Would have to be done manually. Best bet would just be to look at SOG/iCF.

It must exist because data like that was released earlier in the season regarding Pionk, Shattenkirk, and ADA on the powerplay.

I wouldn't know where to get it, though.

It's entirely possible that whoever posted it was manually dividing shot attempts by shots on goal.

Maybe I can throw something together this week if I find time.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Buchnevich89

Blue Blooded

Most people rejected his message
Oct 25, 2010
4,524
2,435
Stockholm
It must exist because data like that was released earlier in the season regarding Pionk, Shattenkirk, and ADA on the powerplay.

I wouldn't know where to get it, though.

It's entirely possible that whoever posted it was manually dividing shot attempts by shots on goal.

Maybe I can throw something together this week if I find time.
It was me doing it earlier. Here are the 5v5 rankings among defencemen with 400+ 5v5 minutes right now (175 players):
PlayerTeamPositionGPTOITOI/GPShots/60iCF/60On net%
Aaron EkbladFLAD45792.4517.615.689.690.5862
Dustin ByfuglienWPGD32576.8018.037.0712.070.5857
Matt NiskanenWSHD44775.4217.625.188.90.5820
Tony DeAngeloNYRD29454.5015.676.0710.430.5820
Trevor DaleyDETD31468.9715.134.097.040.5810
John MooreBOSD41664.9716.225.058.750.5771
Kris LetangPITD44854.6719.427.4413.20.5636
Erik CernakT.BD26404.2515.555.349.50.5621
Niklas KronwallDETD45751.0716.692.644.710.5605
Damon SeversonN.JD46815.1717.724.27.510.5593
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
And the Rangers defencemen (McQuaid has <400 minutes at this point):
PlayerTeamPositionGPTOITOI/GPShots/60iCF/60On net%
Tony DeAngeloNYRD29454.5015.676.0710.430.5820
Brady SkjeiNYRD43760.7517.694.187.890.5298
Neal PionkNYRD42702.6216.734.959.820.5041
Marc StaalNYRD46735.1815.983.928.650.4532
Kevin ShattenkirkNYRD38579.3315.255.0711.60.4371
Fredrik ClaessonNYRD26407.4515.674.2710.90.3917
Brendan SmithNYRD31459.4514.823.268.880.3671
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
And the ranking over the past two seasons (DeAngelo's Rangers career), 800 minute minimum:
PlayerTeamPositionGPTOITOI/GPShots/60iCF/60On net%
Tony DeAngeloNYRD61
901.18​
14.776.7910.920.6218
Zach WerenskiCBJD123
2220.43​
18.056.3211.350.5568
Trevor DaleyDETD108
1736.40​
16.084.047.330.5512
Erik JohnsonCOLD109
2009.13​
18.436.4511.740.5494
John MooreBOS, N.JD122
2025.55​
16.605.249.660.5424
Trevor van RiemsdykCARD121
1773.95​
14.665.249.670.5419
Christopher TanevVAND85
1362.40​
16.032.694.980.5402
Anton StralmanT.BD109
1879.50​
17.245.019.320.5376
Gustav ForslingCHID60
915.42​
15.266.1611.470.5371
Dan GirardiT.BD121
1751.08​
14.474.428.260.5351
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

Rempe73

RIP King of Pop
Mar 26, 2018
12,282
11,685
New Jersey
It was me doing it earlier. Here are the 5v5 rankings among defencemen with 400+ 5v5 minutes right now (175 players):
PlayerTeamPositionGPTOITOI/GPShots/60iCF/60On net%
Aaron EkbladFLAD45792.4517.615.689.690.5862
Dustin ByfuglienWPGD32576.8018.037.0712.070.5857
Matt NiskanenWSHD44775.4217.625.188.90.5820
Tony DeAngeloNYRD29454.5015.676.0710.430.5820
Trevor DaleyDETD31468.9715.134.097.040.5810
John MooreBOSD41664.9716.225.058.750.5771
Kris LetangPITD44854.6719.427.4413.20.5636
Erik CernakT.BD26404.2515.555.349.50.5621
Niklas KronwallDETD45751.0716.692.644.710.5605
Damon SeversonN.JD46815.1717.724.27.510.5593
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
And the Rangers defencemen (McQuaid has <400 minutes at this point):
PlayerTeamPositionGPTOITOI/GPShots/60iCF/60On net%
Tony DeAngeloNYRD29454.5015.676.0710.430.5820
Brady SkjeiNYRD43760.7517.694.187.890.5298
Neal PionkNYRD42702.6216.734.959.820.5041
Marc StaalNYRD46735.1815.983.928.650.4532
Kevin ShattenkirkNYRD38579.3315.255.0711.60.4371
Fredrik ClaessonNYRD26407.4515.674.2710.90.3917
Brendan SmithNYRD31459.4514.823.268.880.3671
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
And the ranking over the past two seasons (DeAngelo's Rangers career), 800 minute minimum:
PlayerTeamPositionGPTOITOI/GPShots/60iCF/60On net%
Tony DeAngeloNYRD61
901.18​
14.776.7910.920.6218
Zach WerenskiCBJD123
2220.43​
18.056.3211.350.5568
Trevor DaleyDETD108
1736.40​
16.084.047.330.5512
Erik JohnsonCOLD109
2009.13​
18.436.4511.740.5494
John MooreBOS, N.JD122
2025.55​
16.605.249.660.5424
Trevor van RiemsdykCARD121
1773.95​
14.665.249.670.5419
Christopher TanevVAND85
1362.40​
16.032.694.980.5402
Anton StralmanT.BD109
1879.50​
17.245.019.320.5376
Gustav ForslingCHID60
915.42​
15.266.1611.470.5371
Dan GirardiT.BD121
1751.08​
14.474.428.260.5351
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
So over the last 2 seasons, DeAngelo is the best in the league in getting his shot on net? Of course amount d-men with 800+ minutes.
 

Blue Blooded

Most people rejected his message
Oct 25, 2010
4,524
2,435
Stockholm
So over the last 2 seasons, DeAngelo is the best in the league in getting his shot on net? Of course amount d-men with 800+ minutes.
Yes, and by quite some margin. Though Werenski has played more than 2x the minutes.

There were some worrying indicators in Tony's metrics earlier this season, but that has ironed itself out at this point. Always looks good from the eye test in my book as well. At this point I probably consider him our best all-around defenceman, but I know I'm a little biased.
 

Filthy Dangles

Registered User*
Oct 23, 2014
28,356
39,703
Seeing Danny Girardi on that list

conceited-reaction-gif-2.gif



I'm honestly not sure what to glean from that On-Net% stat. Seems like guys who shoot higher volumes will have a lower %. I still think SOG are the best way of looking at who the best guys are getting the puck on net.

It's like Alex Ovechkin and SH%. He's the best shooter and marksman in the league but his Sh% is close to average because he shoots so damn much.
 

Blue Blooded

Most people rejected his message
Oct 25, 2010
4,524
2,435
Stockholm
Seeing Danny Girardi on that list

conceited-reaction-gif-2.gif



I'm honestly not sure what to glean from that On-Net% stat. Seems like guys who shoot higher volumes will have a lower %. I still think SOG are the best way of looking at who the best guys are getting the puck on net.

It's like Alex Ovechkin and SH%. He's the best shooter and marksman in the league but his Sh% is close to average because he shoots so damn much.
I mean Letang is 7th in Shots/60, Byfuglien 9th and DeAngelo 26th, so you're not necessarily someone who picks your spots (Kronwall and Severson seem to be though).

My previous regression analysis also indicates that for a defenceman a high iCF (individual shot attempts) but a low ixGF (expected goals from your individual shot attempts) is actually a negative for predicted performance, i.e. don't take shots just for the sake of it. This indicates that on-net% is at least of some importance to defencemen (a blocked shot is always a 0.00 xG, a missed one isn't though).
 
  • Like
Reactions: Buchnevich89

Rempe73

RIP King of Pop
Mar 26, 2018
12,282
11,685
New Jersey
Seeing Danny Girardi on that list

conceited-reaction-gif-2.gif



I'm honestly not sure what to glean from that On-Net% stat. Seems like guys who shoot higher volumes will have a lower %. I still think SOG are the best way of looking at who the best guys are getting the puck on net.

It's like Alex Ovechkin and SH%. He's the best shooter and marksman in the league but his Sh% is close to average because he shoots so damn much.
That’s a good point. Although I do remember Girardi had a pretty decent shot, it makes sense that guys that take more shots will inevitably have a lower percentage of their shots hitting the net. Since those guys shoot from anywhere.
 

Blue Blooded

Most people rejected his message
Oct 25, 2010
4,524
2,435
Stockholm
Since being paired up in 5v5 situations (4 games ago) Staal-DeAngelo have outattempted the opposition 61-35 (63.54 CF%), high-danger scoring chances are 17-5 (77.27 HDCF%) and outscored them 6-2 (75.00 GF%). They've done this getting the most defensively geared deployment on the team among defencemen over this period with a 17-24 zone faceoff ratio (41.46). DeAngelo leads the team in 5v5 shot attempts over this period with 22 (Kreider is 2nd with 15).
 
  • Like
Reactions: Off Sides

Filthy Dangles

Registered User*
Oct 23, 2014
28,356
39,703
Anyone know of an easy or feasible way of answering questions like "How many times has Player X gone 5 straight games without a point in his career" and "What's the longest streak of consecutive games without a goal for Player Y" etc?
 

mike14

Rampage Sherpa
Jun 22, 2006
17,685
10,632
Melbourne
Anyone know of an easy or feasible way of answering questions like "How many times has Player X gone 5 straight games without a point in his career" and "What's the longest streak of consecutive games without a goal for Player Y" etc?

It's not the most efficient way, but hockey-reference has games logs so you can just click through them and look for big clumps of zeros. A 10 year career shouldn't take more than 5 minutes.
Issue comes if you want to compare it to others then it would get quite time consuming
 
  • Like
Reactions: Filthy Dangles

Filthy Dangles

Registered User*
Oct 23, 2014
28,356
39,703
It's not the most efficient way, but hockey-reference has games logs so you can just click through them and look for big clumps of zeros. A 10 year career shouldn't take more than 5 minutes.
Issue comes if you want to compare it to others then it would get quite time consuming

Yeah thanks I know about that functionality of hockey reference, unfortunately it’s rather tedious to do for a bunch of players or if you want to find a streak and you don’t know who the player you are looking for is yet.

I’d probably need to scrape Hockey Ref or other source and do some coding I don’t know how to do in Excel or somethin to make what I’m looking for work
 
  • Like
Reactions: mike14

SnowblindNYR

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Nov 16, 2011
51,728
30,175
Brooklyn, NY
If you guys ever feel bad about yourselves head over to the main boards and read some of their nonsense. Some people have no understanding, even conceptually of math. Some guy asked me condescendingly how old I was because I disagreed that the Lightning have a 1/31 shot of winning the cup. Someone else was a lot less belligerent about it but said they have a 50% chance (either they win it or they don't).
 

Harbour Dog

Registered User
Jul 16, 2015
10,241
12,828
St. John's
If you guys ever feel bad about yourselves head over to the main boards and read some of their nonsense. Some people have no understanding, even conceptually of math. Some guy asked me condescendingly how old I was because I disagreed that the Lightning have a 1/31 shot of winning the cup. Someone else was a lot less belligerent about it but said they have a 50% chance (either they win it or they don't).

I just got dumber.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SnowblindNYR

Ola

Registered User
Apr 10, 2004
34,597
11,595
Sweden
Seeing Danny Girardi on that list

conceited-reaction-gif-2.gif



I'm honestly not sure what to glean from that On-Net% stat. Seems like guys who shoot higher volumes will have a lower %. I still think SOG are the best way of looking at who the best guys are getting the puck on net.

It's like Alex Ovechkin and SH%. He's the best shooter and marksman in the league but his Sh% is close to average because he shoots so damn much.

Its of course still telling of something, but the decision making factor have such a huge impact on it that its hard to figure out to what extent a player actually is good at getting shots through/moving laterally to find open lanes. Like that vet D that only puts a shot on net once in a while when he gets a clean lane will be up there, like Girardi, so will the younger D that is really agile and finds a lot of open lanes.

Another big factor is that teams that press really hard pushes back the opponents and get their Ds open for point shots a lot more often.

I wonder if something can be done combining sh% and ability to get shots through in a formula. Players that only take those open lane shots won't have a high sh%. Players that takes a lot of screened shots will have a high (higher) sh% when they get through.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Filthy Dangles

Filthy Dangles

Registered User*
Oct 23, 2014
28,356
39,703
Its of course still telling of something, but the decision making factor have such a huge impact on it that its hard to figure out to what extent a player actually is good at getting shots through/moving laterally to find open lanes. Like that vet D that only puts a shot on net once in a while when he gets a clean lane will be up there, like Girardi, so will the younger D that is really agile and finds a lot of open lanes.

Another big factor is that teams that press really hard pushes back the opponents and get their Ds open for point shots a lot more often.

I wonder if something can be done combining sh% and ability to get shots through in a formula. Players that only take those open lane shots won't have a high sh%. Players that takes a lot of screened shots will have a high (higher) sh% when they get through.

Yes, Girardi's high efficiency is probably due to his incredibly small shot volume. Like you said, he's probably mostly attempting shots when there's a clear and vacant shooting lane. And it's not like he has the puck very much to begin with based on the other analytics and advanced statistics. It's why, like I've pointed out, this metric is flawed. It would be like looking at Alexander Ovechkin's SH% and someone who's more efficient and saying that player is a better shooter than #8.
 

sbjnyc

Registered User
Jun 28, 2011
5,933
1,997
New York
The worst part is when I heard the 50%, for a second I thought maybe I was missing something and I was wrong, haha. But yeah, every team either wins it or doesn't, That's 1,550% chance someone will win it.
If someone thinks that every team has a 1/31 chance of winning the cup then they should be able to win big money betting on the Senators and Wings at 500/1.

Sports Betting News and Vegas Odds
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
Jan 21, 2011
141,276
109,811
NYC
So Jack Eichel sort of...can I say sucks? I wanna say sucks.

Like, he doesn't suck. But he sucks. You know what I mean?

Yes, he scores a lot. However, I've always said I'm not a big usage guy unless the usage is absolutely ridiculous. His usage is absolutely ridiculous. The guy plays like 40 minutes a game and hasn't take a defensive zone faceoff since Midget-A. I'd be alarmed if he didn't have 72 points.

For a guy who couldn't tell you what his defensive zone looks like, his impact rates are a wet noodle:

ffAJN9V.png


Again, I'm not one to harp on usage to the point where I think it's the goal rather than the context, but isn't this sort of shocking for a guy eating the easiest minutes in the league?

@PlamsUnlimited
 
  • Like
Reactions: Irishguy42 and Ola

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->