The Advanced Stats Thread Episode IX

[Filthy Dangles]

Another thing I was wondering about was what numbers people have for the PPs with the sticks out towards the boards? Elias Pettersson and co loves those PPs. But they just seem so backwards. High left shooting LW and high right shooting RW and a point.

But sure, it’s hard to take away those wristers...

Long-ish video but this guy does a good job explaining the philosophy behind that. You're starting to see teams use that setup on the PP more often.



As for the numbers, I have no idea. I seem to recall a website that has the PP units and where each player lined up on it on the Umbrealla. Maybe someone else knows or could clarify.

 

[Machinehead]

The thought behind it is better puck management because it's easier to keep the passes away from the PKers, the clear negative is that there's no one timers.

Lack of one-timers can be mitigated if you get the wrister off quick.

Our current goaltending analytics don't put much value on velocity. The value is in getting the goalie while he's moving.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

The thought behind it is better puck management because it's easier to keep the passes away from the PKers, the clear negative is that there's no one timers.

Eh, puck management isn't really a thing on the PP....It's about a more efficient D to F exchange which in turn can better help you exploit the seam. When Matthews or Nylander catch that pass in stride with some time to walk into a shot, the goalie has to respect that as do the PKer's so it can really open up the royal road pass.





Leafs probably do it better than anyone.

 

[silverfish]

 

[Machinehead]

 

[Machinehead]

Shattenkirk doe

 

[silverfish]

 

[silverfish]

 

[Machinehead]

Claesson and Shattenkirk play together.

Everyone hates Shattenkirk but raves about Claesson. I find that odd.

Really, they've been a terrible pair and both have performed better apart.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Claesson and Shattenkirk play together.

Everyone hates Shattenkirk but raves about Claesson. I find that odd.

Really, they've been a terrible pair and both have performed better apart.

It's strange, they were playing so well together, then just fell apart as the rest of the team fell apart. SSS madness.

 

[silverfish]

 

[Machinehead]

The advanced stats community has to address Washington.

22nd in CF%
27th in xGF%
3rd in GF%

This isn't SSS anymore. They do this year after year. I have always believed that the object of the game is to score goals, and over very large samples, a player is what the GF% says he is, as long as those numbers are consistent. I'm becoming concerned that Erik Karlsson is a consistent goals drag, despite seemingly doing everything right. But for the sake of brevity, let's leave Karlsson alone for now. Derek Stepan is a good example, too. Nobody will accuse him of being Patrice Bergeron by CF%/xGF% but he's a GF% boom for his team year after year.

Can we apply the same logic to an entire team/core? Moreover, the question I've always applied to those players is: what exactly are they doing to influence the GF% a certain way, if the shots and chances are implying the opposite influence?

Shots are shots. There's no two ways about that. Now, is it possible that our existing quality metrics are way off?

Granted, the Caps, unlike last year, are doing ok in K-rating (9th overall). But according to Manny's numbers, their quality metrics are the worst in the league. They succeed, according to Manny's numbers, because they're other-worldly at shooting. I mean, that I buy, because they have the greatest shooter who ever lived. But that doesn't explain why their goals against per 60 is top 5 in the league over the last 3 years. This is not a team with particularly outstanding goaltending.

To be fair, it's only 13th over 17-18 and 18-19, but the quality metrics don't indicate that they should be 13th. They indicate that they should be towards the bottom. And even so, Tampa and Toronto have scored a lot more goals, so it's not like they're just beating everyone to death. This team has a Cup and multiple first-place finishes.

We've missed something here.

 

[Irishguy42]

The advanced stats community has to address Washington.

22nd in CF%
27th in xGF%
3rd in GF%

This isn't SSS anymore. They do this year after year. I have always believed that the object of the game is to score goals, and over very large samples, a player is what the GF% says he is, as long as those numbers are consistent. I'm becoming concerned that Erik Karlsson is a consistent goals drag, despite seemingly doing everything right. But for the sake of brevity, let's leave Karlsson alone for now. Derek Stepan is a good example, too. Nobody will accuse him of being Patrice Bergeron by CF%/xGF% but he's a GF% boom for his team year after year.

Can we apply the same logic to an entire team/core? Moreover, the question I've always applied to those players is: what exactly are they doing to influence the GF% a certain way, if the shots and chances are implying the opposite influence?

Shots are shots. There's no two ways about that. Now, is it possible that our existing quality metrics are way off?

Granted, the Caps, unlike last year, are doing ok in K-rating (9th overall). But according to Manny's numbers, their quality metrics are the worst in the league. They succeed, according to Manny's numbers, because they're other-worldly at shooting. I mean, that I buy, because they have the greatest shooter who ever lived. But that doesn't explain why their goals against per 60 is top 5 in the league over the last 3 years. This is not a team with particularly outstanding goaltending.

To be fair, it's only 13th over 17-18 and 18-19, but the quality metrics don't indicate that they should be 13th. They indicate that they should be towards the bottom. And even so, Tampa and Toronto have scored a lot more goals, so it's not like they're just beating everyone to death. This team has a Cup and multiple first-place finishes.

We've missed something here.

Have we?

Have you seen the talent on that roster? They're not overflowing with it, but it's there, and in just the right places. I think Holtby, while not the greatest, is still good.

Talent and skill will usually overcome process, be it great talent or lack thereof (ie Rangers, or even Oilers)

Sometimes the two align, and then sometimes they are at odds.

I don't think we're missing anything.

I also tend to think the Capitals are literally the incarnation of "intangibles" and all things you can't really qualify to be successful.

 

[Machinehead]

Have we?

Have you seen the talent on that roster? They're not overflowing with it, but it's there, and in just the right places.

Talent and skill will usually overcome process, be it great talent or lack thereof (ie Rangers, or even Oilers)

Sometimes the two align, and then sometimes they are at odds.

I don't think we're missing anything.

Right, they don't need quality or quantity because they have the talent to score on a few marginal chances. I get that part, and it explains their offense.

It still doesn't explain why they don't give up nearly as many goals as the numbers say they should. Their "against" quality metrics are appalling.

 

[Irishguy42]

Right, they don't need quality or quantity because they have the talent to score on a few marginal chances. I get that part, and it explains their offense.

It still doesn't explain why they don't give up nearly as many goals as the numbers say they should. Their "against" quality metrics are appalling.

Maybe because while they're goaltending isn't "particularly outstanding" it's still passable?

 

[Machinehead]

Maybe because while they're goaltending isn't "particularly outstanding" it's still passable?

Passable goaltending and bottom 5 in metrics generally = bottom 5 in goals against.

 

[Irishguy42]

Passable goaltending and bottom 5 in metrics generally = bottom 5 in goals against.

 

[Machinehead]

My sentiments exactly. I don't get this.

 

[Irishguy42]

My sentiments exactly. I don't get this.

What exactly are the Caps good at?

 

[Machinehead]

What exactly are the Caps good at?

Honestly, winning.

 

[Machinehead]

Unrelated: dollars to donuts is an amazing phrase

 

[Irishguy42]

Honestly, winning.

Just Win Baby

 

[SA16]

The thing missing about the Caps is everyone ignores special teams and they consistently have one of the best PPs in the league. They have been league average in terms of goals allowed it's not like they've been good there. It is kind of weird though considering their 5v5 numbers are bad and they take a ton of penalties.

 

[Blue Blooded]

The thing missing about the Caps is everyone ignores special teams and they consistently have one of the best PPs in the league. They have been league average in terms of goals allowed it's not like they've been good there. It is kind of weird though considering their 5v5 numbers are bad and they take a ton of penalties.

There is also where Ovi's shot shines through. Their PP GF/60 is always near the top of the league while their xGF/60 isn't nearly as good - but xG models usually doesn't differentiate between a shot taken by Ovechkin and a shot taken by Lettieri from the same spot.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

I'll prob get slammed for this and I have nothing to back it up with apart from anecdotes but WSH is a team who's shot metrics are not commensurate with their time of possession in the offensive zone and their quality of chances aren't properly quantified via the current expected Goal model employed by Corsica.

I really have no concerns about the underlying numbers, their play is sustainable and they have a bunch of elite players, shot attempt%'s be damned.