Prospect Info: The Adolescent 2019 Draft Thread

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McDNicks17

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Barret Kirwin is a guy that might be working his way into the lower rounds.

Short and stocky(5'9'' 189lbs). Great skater. Smart, two-way center.

Starting to put up some points with the Attack(he was part of the package for Nick Suzuki) with 9 points in 12 games.
 
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ConnorMcMullet

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Maybe I'm crazy but I think there's a strong possibility that Cam York from the USNTDP is in fact the best defenseman in the draft.

I would seriously entertain taking him with a top10 pick.

Incredibly smooth skater, great puck-mover, high-end offensive skills, thinks the game well, solid defensively despite not being the biggest guy. There's so much to like about him.

You can never have too many high-end defensemen.

He recently broke a USNTDP record with a 7 point night:



And here's another two nice goals:


Interesting. I haven't really watched too many defensemen in this years draft, especially LD. York seems pretty good though.
 

Zaddy

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I've now watched two ~30 minute shift-by-shift videos on Bowen Byram and I still don't get the hype with this guy. To my eye, he doesn't have a single elite trait in his game, so I find it very odd that almost everyone has him pencilled in as a top6 pick in this draft. He's not even a particularly dynamic skater. How did this guy get so highly rated? Because of his passport and WHL draft pedigree?

I think he's the 3rd or maybe 4th best defenseman in this draft at best. Again, I don't really see a major difference between him and Tobias Björnfot (and I'm not even particularly high on Björnfot). Might be Byram is a slightly better offensive player but Björnfot is a better skater, more polished defensively and plays at a faster pace.

I don't like Byram defensively that much, I find that he doesn't compete or move his feet nearly enough in the defensive zone or the neutral zone for that matter and he's relatively easy to beat off the rush. His backwards skating needs a lot of work. Luckily he does generally have pretty good anticipation and awareness to make up for that but for a highly rated guy you expect more.

I think Byram is mostly a 1 zone player. He's not doing any great work defensively or in the neutral zone, he doesn't carry the puck or break up plays a lot. But in the offensive zone he does a lot of good work with his puck patience, shot selection and how he walks the line. But that's really where it starts and ends with Byram for me. I don't understand the fascination of him beyond that. I haven't made a list yet but I'd probably have him ranked in the teens or somewhere close to that.

I made some gifs from the recent video I watched on him to illustrate some points.



Here he has plenty of time to go and collect the puck and quickly move it around the net to his D partner and avert any sort of danger, a routine play for most high-end defensemen, but instead what happens? He doesn't move his feet at all, lets the Kelowna forwards catch up to him and when he gets in close to the puck and the boards he doesn't manage to shield the puck at all and just lets the Kelowna guys have it. Zero willingness to compete for a loose puck in a relatively dangerous area in that sequence.



This may not be the greatest example but I see similar things happen relatively frequently. In this sequence he doesn't read the pass quickly enough and gets caught flat-footed in the neutral zone. If the Kelowna forward has an extra gear he'd be able to break in in front of the net and possibly score.



Finally here's a pretty poor shift by Byram. I don't know if he's gassed here or what but you can see what I'm talking about here with how he just doesn't move his feet (quickly) enough. Again, his feet are pretty stationary in the 1-on-1 situation and if that's a faster forward he'd be in trouble. Really don't like his backwards skating. Luckily his d partner covers for him and collects the puck before passing it back to Byram behind the net who has all the time in the world.

What does he do? Lackadaisically skates the puck up the ice without any sort of speed at all and lets the Kelowna player close him down really quickly. However he obviously still is able to make the play to his teammate and not turn that dangerous situation into an immediate turnover but because of how slowly Byram made that play, Kelowna is able to overwhelm that side of the ice and immediately three guys surround the Giants player which leads to a turnover that then becomes a breakaway for Kelowna, a drawn penalty and eventually a power play goal.

So that whole sequence and that goal against stemmed from Byram's inability to move the puck up the ice fast enough.

Byram also had a pretty silly Kris "starfish" Russell impersonation going on but I can't link the video directly because you can't link more than 3 media in a post but you can just click here: starfish - Streamable
 

Mcnotloilersfan

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I don't think we should be drafting a dman at all. There isnt a guy in this draft the screams "no doubt, top pairing dman". Our defensive depth is stacked and we need more guys who can score and drive the play up front in the system.
 
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PKSpecialist

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@Zaddy - I think some things need to be taken in a bit of context too.... poor read on the first video you showed, but without seeing the rest of the play, difficult to say...bu I would propose that based on the time on the clock, and Byram being the best defender on his team, he is probably a solid minute into his shift, and manages to keep stride with a forward while pivoting with an attacker who was hit in stride. You watched the whole shift by shift, so I will defer to you, but this appears to be one of those cases where a GIF doesn't do justice to the larger context.

The other thing is that Byram is 17 years old. When the season ends, he will still be 17. Very young defender in this draft. Does he make some poor decisions? Yes. Does he have some learning still to do? Yes. Does he have some growth/strength still to gain? Yes. Defenders in the draft have warts. They shouldn't be asked to become NHL regualars for another 3 years. That's a lot of time for growth, both in size, strength and explosiveness, as well as gameplay. Drafting/scouting is about projecting who the player is likely to become, not who they are today.

I have all kinds of time for this player in the top 10. Broberg is the only defender who is more intriguing to me in skillset, but he is much less refined than Byram at this point. The difference between the two in my opinion is Nurse(Broberg) to Klefbom(Byram). To the eye, Nurse/Broberg are more intriguing due to physical tools, but can they ever refine their game enough to become the reliable two-way threats of Klefbom/Byram?
 
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CycloneSweep

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@Zaddy - I think some things need to be taken in a bit of context too.... poor read on the first video you showed, but without seeing the rest of the play, difficult to say...bu I would propose that based on the time on the clock, and Byram being the best defender on his team, he is probably a solid minute into his shift, and manages to keep stride with a forward while pivoting with an attacker who was hit in stride. You watched the whole shift by shift, so I will defer to you, but this appears to be one of those cases where a GIF doesn't do justice to the larger context.

The other thing is that Byram is 17 years old. When the season ends, he will still be 17. Very young defender in this draft. Does he make some poor decisions? Yes. Does he have some learning still to do? Yes. Does he have some growth/strength still to gain? Yes. Defenders in the draft have warts. They shouldn't be asked to become NHL regualars for another 3 years. That's a lot of time for growth, both in size, strength and explosiveness, as well as gameplay. Drafting/scouting is about projecting who the player is likely to become, not who they are today.

I have all kinds of time for this player in the top 10. Broberg is the only defender who is more intriguing to me in skillset, but he is much less refined than Byram at this point. The difference between the two in my opinion is Nurse(Broberg) to Klefbom(Byram). To the eye, Nurse/Broberg are more intriguing due to physical tools, but can they ever refine their game enough to become the reliable two-way threats of Klefbom/Byram?
Byram looks like he will be a decent defender but not someone you go spending a top 10 pick on.
 
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Zaddy

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@Zaddy - I think some things need to be taken in a bit of context too.... poor read on the first video you showed, but without seeing the rest of the play, difficult to say...bu I would propose that based on the time on the clock, and Byram being the best defender on his team, he is probably a solid minute into his shift, and manages to keep stride with a forward while pivoting with an attacker who was hit in stride. You watched the whole shift by shift, so I will defer to you, but this appears to be one of those cases where a GIF doesn't do justice to the larger context.

The other thing is that Byram is 17 years old. When the season ends, he will still be 17. Very young defender in this draft. Does he make some poor decisions? Yes. Does he have some learning still to do? Yes. Does he have some growth/strength still to gain? Yes. Defenders in the draft have warts. They shouldn't be asked to become NHL regualars for another 3 years. That's a lot of time for growth, both in size, strength and explosiveness, as well as gameplay. Drafting/scouting is about projecting who the player is likely to become, not who they are today.

I have all kinds of time for this player in the top 10. Broberg is the only defender who is more intriguing to me in skillset, but he is much less refined than Byram at this point. The difference between the two in my opinion is Nurse(Broberg) to Klefbom(Byram). To the eye, Nurse/Broberg are more intriguing due to physical tools, but can they ever refine their game enough to become the reliable two-way threats of Klefbom/Byram?

I might sound overly negative on Byram but in fact I do think he is a good prospect and I absolutely think he has potential to be a solid NHLer. But I just don't see elite upside and for someone ranked as high as he is I would expect a lot more. So mostly my issue with him is not his play per se but what his actual play looks like compared to where he is ranked. Those two doesn't match up for me. As I said, I'd probably have him ranked in the teens, which means I consider him a good prospect, just not a top-end one. Simply put, I think he is overhyped.

He does a lot of things well, but nothing at an exceptional level. Guys like Broberg has elite size/skating combo, Söderström has absolutely elite hockey sense along with very good mobility and edgework and from what I've seen from Cam York so far he has upside as an elite puck-moving defenseman with high-end skating (and solid offensive skills). So it makes a lot more sense to me to see any of those guys billed as the top ranked guy than someone who is 'just' a good all-around defenseman.
 
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Aerrol

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For the OHL watchers here, any thoughts on Ryan Suzuki? There were some pretty interesting comments on his thread on the Prospects board, and I wondered if our resident experts here agreed. Some of the quotes that I think are particularly interesting (without tagging the poster unnecessarily haha):

"He rarely imposes his will on a game. He's just so passive. He has great vision and a good skill level. But, he just disappears out of games. And, I don't mean impose your will in a Prime-Lucic way. I mean, just always being aggressive and trying to create such as Marner or Kane. He's just invisible way too often.

...

Suzuki has all the raw tools to make people who pass on him in the top 10 to 15 look foolish if it clicks with better talent and improves. But, he also has traits that make me worry about investing a high pick in him. I'm much more comfortable investing in guys like Turcotte and Krebs."

I'm curious if A) this is accurate (I suspect it is from what little I've seen) and B) if anyone here can think of other "passive" prospects who ended up getting past that trait in the NHL?

Shameless edit since this got ignored and I'm very curious - @McDNicks17 you watch quite a bit of OHL, no? Any thoughts? @Zaddy?
 
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Zaddy

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I don't think we should be drafting a dman at all. There isnt a guy in this draft the screams "no doubt, top pairing dman". Our defensive depth is stacked and we need more guys who can score and drive the play up front in the system.

I generally agree with this, but how far would you be willing to downgrade in forward talent just not to take a defenseman? I think it really depends where the pick lands and who is available. I'd take York over Cozens as an example, but not over Turcotte or Dach.
 

PKSpecialist

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I generally agree with this, but how far would you be willing to downgrade in forward talent just not to take a defenseman? I think it really depends where the pick lands and who is available. I'd take York over Cozens as an example, but not over Turcotte or Dach.

The Oilers have too many holes not to go BPA. We need high-end defensive prospects. We need high-end wing prospects. We need skilled forwards. We need bottom six forwards... Realistically, the only position we are set at is #1 center and #7 Defenceman. Figure out your board and stick to it. You could certainly argue no defender in the second round if you draft a defender in the first, but outside of that, BPA according to your scouts.
 
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780il

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The Oilers have too many holes not to go BPA. We need high-end defensive prospects. We need high-end wing prospects. We need skilled forwards. We need bottom six forwards... Realistically, the only position we are set at is #1 center and #7 Defenceman. Figure out your board and stick to it. You could certainly argue no defender in the second round if you draft a defender in the first, but outside of that, BPA according to your scouts.
*BPA according to Winnipeg's scouts

Our scouts are ass
 

PKSpecialist

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*BPA according to Winnipeg's scouts

Our scouts are ass

I know it's popular to crap on our scouts, but I ain't buying it. We draft fine. We just don't develop well. We rush our high-end prospects to the show, and our low end prospects aren't put in a good position to succeed. They wanted a winning atmosphere in the minors, which was a good idea, so they brought in a bunch of vets to make Oklahoma good. It worked, they were good, but they failed to understand that at some point, the vets gotta go, and the prospects gotta play.

I know it's popular to look at teams like the Jets and believe they are so much better than us. Their last 3 drafts have produced 5 NHL games to this point. I'm not saying that as an indictment of their drafting. That's a praise of their development. They ensure that their players are ready, mainly because they have a deep NHL squad, before throwing them into the fire. You can praise their drafting all you want, but those scouts are still the same ones who were so enamored with Logan Stanley that they trade 22 and 36 for 18 and 79. Could've picked Cholowski, could've picked Sam Girard, could've picked DeBrincat..... When its the Jets(or other teams) we gloss it over. The truth is, their scouts aren't better. Their system is.
 

McDNicks17

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I know it's popular to crap on our scouts, but I ain't buying it. We draft fine. We just don't develop well. We rush our high-end prospects to the show, and our low end prospects aren't put in a good position to succeed. They wanted a winning atmosphere in the minors, which was a good idea, so they brought in a bunch of vets to make Oklahoma good. It worked, they were good, but they failed to understand that at some point, the vets gotta go, and the prospects gotta play.

I know it's popular to look at teams like the Jets and believe they are so much better than us. Their last 3 drafts have produced 5 NHL games to this point. I'm not saying that as an indictment of their drafting. That's a praise of their development. They ensure that their players are ready, mainly because they have a deep NHL squad, before throwing them into the fire. You can praise their drafting all you want, but those scouts are still the same ones who were so enamored with Logan Stanley that they trade 22 and 36 for 18 and 79. Could've picked Cholowski, could've picked Sam Girard, could've picked DeBrincat..... When its the Jets(or other teams) we gloss it over. The truth is, their scouts aren't better. Their system is.

I don't buy it.

The Oilers obviously don't develop very well, but their biggest problem is they spend most of their draft picks on Logan Stanleys rather than the odd time like successful drafting teams like the Jets.

There's a very common theme among the majority of NHLers drafted outside the 1st round. It's that they were great junior players. The Oilers scouts seem to think you find NHLers in those rounds by finding big, fast terrible junior players. Doesn't matter how many minutes you spoon feed guys like Moroz, Ewanyk or Hamilton in the AHL. If they were never even good junior players, there's basically zero chance they were going to be good pros.
 
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PKSpecialist

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I don't buy it.

The Oilers obviously don't develop very well, but their biggest problem is they spend most of their draft picks on Logan Stanleys rather than the odd time like successful drafting teams like the Jets.

There's a very common theme among the majority of NHLers drafted outside the 1st round. It's that they were great junior players. The Oilers scouts seem to think you find NHLers in those rounds by finding big, fast terrible junior players. Doesn't matter how many minutes you spoon feed guys like Moroz, Ewanyk or Hamilton in the AHL. If they were never even good junior players, there's basically zero chance they were going to be good pros.

None of the mentioned guys were drafted while Keith Gretzky was in charge of the draft....
 

McDNicks17

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None of the mentioned guys were drafted while Keith Gretzky was in charge of the draft....

Half the scouts from that era are still around. And MacT, Howson and Green are still heavily involved in amateur scouting.

Also if we're just talking Gretzky drafts, how are you blaming development when we're talking about guys drafted in 2017?
 
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PKSpecialist

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Half the scouts from that era are still around. And MacT, Howson and Green are still heavily involved in amateur scouting.

Also if we're just talking Gretzky drafts, how are you blaming development when we're talking about guys drafted in 2017?

I didn't bring up names, the other poster did. The guys he mentioned were drafted 6,7,8 years ago. You can't blame the current Oilers scouting staff for those drafts. Are some of the scouts the same? Probably, you'll have to excuse me, but I don't pay that close of attention, but the truth is, that the Director of Scouting and GM set the direction of the scouts. We are looking for X type of player with Y skillset and Z size. Go find them. Were there flaws in drafting? Absolutely. Still is. Can't be narrowed down to any one team though. Every team chases the Todd Bertuzzi's and Zdeno Chara's, even to this day. They always will, because those players, however rare, can absolutely dominate the game, regardless how it changes.

I didn't like the Yamamoto pick at the time, and still don't, but there is no doubting his skill. That said, if there was ever a first rounder who absolutely needed to be in junior hockey, regardless how dominant he was, it was him. Puljujarvi...same story. We tried to rush Nurse, sent him back just in time. Draisaitl...wasted a year of his rookie deal. Our depth is so pathetic that we are forced to rush these guys, and because of that, we keep signing the Patrick Russell's, Brad Malone's....heck, the list goes all the way back to Alexandre Giroux, to play on our farm team, all the while our prospects get third and fourth line time on the farm as 20 year olds with no PP time, basically wasting away without developing.
 

McDNicks17

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Jamieson Rees is another interesting guy from the OHL. Started a bit slow after an injury a couple games into the season(lacerated spleen, I think?), but is playing well now.

On the smaller side(5'10'', 170lbs), but he's fun to watch.

Saw this about him:

 

PKSpecialist

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Jamieson Rees is another interesting guy from the OHL. Started a bit slow after an injury a couple games into the season(lacerated spleen, I think?), but is playing well now.

On the smaller side(5'10'', 170lbs), but he's fun to watch.

Agreed that Rees is interesting. I have him right in the conversation where our second round pick is going to be. He's a creative forward with great hockey sense who gets after the puck well.

The one trend I am seeing in this draft is that there are a lot of these types of players available. I call them water bugs. Despite being a little undersized, they are all over the place on the ice, they battle hard, play physically and engage at both ends of the ice while still being skillful players with speed and offensive creativity. I really like this type of player and wouldn't be disappointed to see the Oilers draft one or two of them.

Alex Turcotte, Trevor Zegras, Philip Tomasino, Jamieson Rees, Xavier Simoneau, Peyton Krebs, Jakob Pelletier, Nils Hoglander, Leevi Aaltonen, Nikola Pasic are just a few of these guys who are in the conversation in the first 2 rounds. (Simoneau is the only one I don't have at least in the second, but he's right there for our 3rd round pick in my rankings - and may fall to the one we actually own).
 
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ConnorMcMullet

#12 Colby Cave
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Agreed that Rees is interesting. I have him right in the conversation where our second round pick is going to be. He's a creative forward with great hockey sense who gets after the puck well.

The one trend I am seeing in this draft is that there are a lot of these types of players available. I call them water bugs. Despite being a little undersized, they are all over the place on the ice, they battle hard, play physically and engage at both ends of the ice while still being skillful players with speed and offensive creativity. I really like this type of player and wouldn't be disappointed to see the Oilers draft one or two of them.

Alex Turcotte, Trevor Zegras, Philip Tomasino, Jamieson Rees, Xavier Simoneau, Peyton Krebs, Jakob Pelletier, Nils Hoglander, Leevi Aaltonen, Nikola Pasic are just a few of these guys who are in the conversation in the first 2 rounds. (Simoneau is the only one I don't have at least in the second, but he's right there for our 3rd round pick in my rankings - and may fall to the one we actually own).
Turcotte, Zegras, Krebs, Pelletier, and Tomasino will all be 1st round picks. The 1st 3 probably going top-15.
 

Llamamoto

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Back to the Cozens vs Dach argument, I would now definitely go for Dach. A clone of Drai. Underrated shot. Insane vision and passing. He's on pace for 2 less points, but has been playing injured the past few weeks. After the break, he came back with a hat trick. Cozens has similar issues to Pulju, including questionable offensive IQ and meh hands.

My top 3 is Hughes, Kakko, Dach.


BTW, I really don't see the hype for Pokolzin. Really meh numbers in Russia, but great numbers in International competitions. Fast, strong, meh passing. Similar to Pulju.
 
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780il

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Back to the Cozens vs Dach argument, I would now definitely go for Dach. A clone of Drai. Underrated shot. Insane vision and passing. He's on pace for 2 less points, but has been playing injured the past few weeks. After the break, he came back with a hat trick. Cozens has similar issues to Pulju, including questionable offensive IQ and meh hands.

My top 3 is Hughes, Kakko, Dach.


BTW, I really don't see the hype for Pokolzin. Really meh numbers in Russia, but great numbers in International competitions. Fast, strong, meh passing. Similar to Pulju.
I would stay far far away from Podkolzin. We won't get Hughes or Kakko so just take who you like more out of Dach and Cozens.
 

780il

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who do you prefer, Dach or Cozens?
I've been flip flopping back and forth all year tbh.

I love Dach's size and vision. I love Cozens speed and shot.

Rn, I think Dach would be the better pick. The more I watch of each, Dach seems to be the smarter player and Cozens a lot of the time just ends up losing the puck into the defenders legs.

Cozens will probably be a good goal scoring rw that needs a play driving playmaking center to be successful. Dach would probably be that playdriving 2nd line center that we need behind Mcdavid. He also has a really underated shot as well that would come in handy on the left wall of the pp. He's just so much better with the puck on his stick. His skating issues also seem to be a bit overblown, his top end speed is not bad. His edges are good but he struggles with accelerating and takes a long time to get going.

X - Mcdavid - Drai
Nuge - Dach - X

Would be a killer forward core to move forward with.
 

ConnorMcMullet

#12 Colby Cave
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Back to the Cozens vs Dach argument, I would now definitely go for Dach. A clone of Drai. Cozens has similar issues to Pulju, including questionable offensive IQ and meh hands. Underrated shot. Insane vision and passing. He's on pace for 2 less points, but has been playing injured the past few weeks. After the break, he came back with a hat trick.

My top 3 is Hughes, Kakko, Dach.


BTW, I really don't see the hype for Pokolzin. Really meh numbers in Russia, but great numbers in International competitions. Fast, strong, meh passing. Similar to Pulju.
I agree completely. I've watched a lot of both of them recently and Dach is on a completely different level. Cozens could be a good fit here because of his skating and shot (right handed, would work on left-half wall on PP), but he is pretty invisible most of the time. Not saying he won't be an NHLer one day, but I don't see any elite traits that could make him a game breaker.

Dach on the other hand is pretty amazing to watch. His skating doesn't seem like an issue at all. He is able to control the pace of the game with his vision and offensive IQ. As mentioned, I see a lot of Draisaitl in him. I've seen people worried that his numbers are a result of physical maturity, and I can tell you that is not the case at all. He is tall, but still very lanky and can add 10 more pounds quite easily. Dach is great in his own end to. He has great reach and his stick lifts are a thing of beauty. Drai and Dylan Strome seem like the two best comparables to me. And watching Strome the other night, adding a talent like that would make a huge difference on this team. He is my 3rd overall pick behind Hughes and Kakko.

Regarding the battle for 1st overall, I'm really torn. Hughes is so dynamic and electrifying, and would be so nice to have our version of Gaudreau/Petterson, but there are some red flags. Kakko reminds me so much of Rantanen. Great shot, incredible vision (one of my favourite traits in a player), nice hands, and he uses his size and rear end so well, just like Jagr used to. In all honesty he's been much more impressive this year than Hughes had. That said, I don't trust this organization's ability to develop Europeans, so that would also be a concern. Both are unreal players, and I can't say I have one firmly above the other.

I agree about Podkolzin. Not great numbers in Russia but amazing international play. Great tools, questionable IQ. Sound familiar? He reminds me of Pulju, and I would prefer not to draft him if we're picking high.
 
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Llamamoto

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I've been flip flopping back and forth all year tbh.

I love Dach's size and vision. I love Cozens speed and shot.

Rn, I think Dach would be the better pick. The more I watch of each, Dach seems to be the smarter player and Cozens a lot of the time just ends up losing the puck into the defenders legs.

Cozens will probably be a good goal scoring rw that needs a play driving playmaking center to be successful. Dach would probably be that playdriving 2nd line center that we need behind Mcdavid. He also has a really underated shot as well that would come in handy on the left wall of the pp.

X - Mcdavid - Drai
Nuge - Dach - X

Would be a killer forward core to move forward with.

I've also been torn. Used to prefer Cozens, until I saw some post with a ton of analysis and clips that made me change my mind. I also saw a clip where Dach used his speed to waive off an icing, take the puck from Byram, and absolutely snipe it bar-down. IMO, those two aspects of his game are underrated.
 
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