The "6 points in 5 games"/Overreact to Every Game Thread

Discussion in 'Carolina Hurricanes' started by Blueline Bomber, Oct 2, 2013.

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  1. Blueline Bomber

    Blueline Bomber From the Blueline

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    In the past, it's been said that in order for a team to be securely in a playoff spot by the end of the year, a pace of 6 points every 5 games has to be kept. This would give a team 48 points after 40 games and 96 points after 80. That should give this team enough points to lock in a playoff spot by season's end (barring an extremely strong Metro division).

    Now obviously, this is easier said than done. Teams go through slumps, slow starts, or injuries, and thus, a team may earn 4 or 5 points (or less) over a 5 game stretch. That's to be expected, and won't hurt the final outcome, so long as that down stretch is made up for with an especially strong stretch at some other point in the year.

    This year, I've decided I want to keep track of how this team performs using this concept, for better or for worse. In the worst case scenario, we'll get a good idea of where opportunities were missed throughout the season.

    Season Start
    ---
    Oct. 4 - Detroit Red Wings: 3-2 OTL
    Oct. 6 - Philadelphia Flyers: 2-1 W
    Oct. 8 - Pittsburgh Penguins: 5-2 L
    Oct. 10 - Washington Capitals: 3-2 W
    Oct. 11 - Los Angeles Kings: 2-1 SOL
    Points Above/Off Pace: Even
    ---
    Oct. 13 - Phoenix Coyotes: 5-3 L
    Oct. 15 - Chicago Blackhawks: 3-2 SOL
    Oct. 17 - Toronto Maple Leafs: 3-2 W
    Oct. 19 - New York Islanders: 4-3 W
    Oct. 24 - Minnesota Wild: 3-1 L
    Points Above/Off Pace: -1
    ---
    Oct. 25 - Colorado Avalanche: 4-2 L
    Oct. 28 - Pittsburgh Penguins: 3-1 L
    Nov. 1 - Tampa Bay Lightning: 3-0 L
    Nov. 2 - New York Rangers: 5-1 L
    Nov. 5 - Philadelphia Flyers: 2-1 W
    Points Above/Off Pace: -5
    ---
    Nov. 7 - New York Islanders: 1-0 W
    Nov. 9 - Minnesota Wild: 3-2 SOL
    Nov. 12 - Colorado Avalanche: 2-1 W
    Nov. 15 - Anaheim Ducks: 3-2 W
    Nov. 16 - St. Louis Blues: 4-2 L
    Points Above/Off Pace: -4
    ---
    Nov. 18 - Boston Bruins: 4-1 L
    Nov. 21 - Detroit Red Wings: 4-3 L
    Nov. 23 - Boston Bruins: 3-2 OTL
    Nov. 24 - Ottawa Senators: 4-1 W
    Nov. 27 - New Jersey Devils: 4-3 W
    Points Above/Off Pace: -5
    ---
    Nov. 29 - New Jersey Devils: 5-2 L
    Dec. 1 - Vancouver Canucks: 3-2 L
    Dec. 3 - Washington Capitals: 4-1 W
    Dec. 5 - Nashville Predators: 5-2 W
    Dec. 6 - San Jose Sharks: 5-3 W
    Points Above/Off Pace: -5
    ---
    Dec. 9 - Vancouver Canucks: 2-0 L
    Dec. 10 - Edmonton Oilers: 5-4 OTL
    Dec. 12 - Calgary Flames: 2-1 OTL
    Dec. 14 - Phoenix Coyotes: 3-1 W
    Dec. 20 - Washington Capitals: 4-2 L
    Points Above/Off Pace: -7
    ---
    Dec. 21 - Tampa Bay Lightning: 3-2 OTL
    Dec. 23 - Columbus Blue Jackets: 4-3 L
    Dec. 27 - Pittsburgh Penguins: 4-3 OTL
    Dec. 29 - Toronto Maple Leafs: 5-2 L
    Dec. 31 - Montreal Canadiens: 5-4 W
    Points Above/Off Pace: -9
    ---
    Jan. 2 - Washington Capitals: 4-3 W
    Jan. 4 - New York Islanders: 3-2 W
    Jan. 5 - Nashville Predators: 2-1W
    Jan. 9 - Toronto Maple Leafs: 6-1 W
    Points Above/Off Pace: -7
    ---
    Jan. 10 - Columbus Blue Jackets: 3-0 L
    Jan. 13 - Calgary Flames: 2-0 L
    Jan. 18 - Florida Panthers: 3-2 W
    Jan. 19 - Tampa Bay Lightning: 5-3 L
    Jan. 21 - Philadelphia Flyers: 3-2 W
    Points Above/Off Pace: -9
    ---
    Jan. 23 - Buffalo Sabres: 5-3 W
    Jan. 24 - Ottawa Senators: 6-3 W
    Jan. 27 - Columbus Blue Jackets: 3-2 W
    Jan. 28 - Montreal Canadiens: 3-0 L
    Jan. 31 - St. Louis Blues: 3-1 W
    Points Above/Off Pace: -7
    ---
    Feb. 4 - Winnipeg Jets: 2-1 L
    Feb. 7 - Florida Panthers: 5-1 W
    Feb. 8 - Montreal Canadiens: 4-1 L
    Feb. 25 - Buffalo Sabres: 3-2 L
    Feb. 27 - Dallas Stars: 4-1 L
    March 1 - Los Angeles Kings: 3-1 L
    Points Above/Off Pace: -11
    ---
    March 2 - Anaheim Ducks: 5-3 L
    March 4 - San Jose Sharks
    March 7 - New York Rangers
    March 8 - New Jersey Devils
    March 11 - New York Rangers
    Points Above/Off Pace:
    ---
    March 13 - Buffalo Sabres
    March 15 - Boston Bruins
    March 16 - Edmonton Oilers
    March 18 - Columbus Blue Jackets
    March 21 - Chicago Blackhawks
    Points Above/Off Pace:
    ---
    March 22 - Winnipeg Jets
    March 25 - New York Islanders
    March 27 - Florida Panthers
    March 29 - Columbus Blue Jackets
    March 31 - Ottawa Senators
    Points Above/Off Pace:
    ---
    April 1 - Pittsburgh Penguins
    April 3 - Dallas Stars
    April 5 - New Jersey Devils
    April 8 - New York Rangers
    April 10 - Washington Capitals
    Points Above/Off Pace:
    ---
    April 11 - Detroit Red Wings
    April 13 - Philadelphia Flyers
    Total Points/Points Needed: 6/96

    So that's it. There are some obvious stretches where, IMO, barring the unexpected, the team should struggle to get 6 points, but one can always hope.
     
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2014
  2. Anton Dubinchuk

    Anton Dubinchuk aho

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    This is an awesome idea.
     
  3. Boom Boom Apathy

    Boom Boom Apathy Eat cookies, get fat, watch from the couch

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    Cool, Is the "total points" just the total for that 5 game stretch? or a cumulative total for the whole season?
     
  4. tarheelhockey

    tarheelhockey Highest Boss

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    Let me save you some time.

    Behind pace after one week. Miss playoffs.
     
  5. tomdundo

    tomdundo Registered User

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    I believe you missed the L for the Philly game.
     
  6. Joe McGrath

    Joe McGrath Registered User

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    Hey, he doesn't go into your objective +/- thread and say; Skinner -5, saved you some time :sarcasm:
     
  7. the halleJOKEL

    the halleJOKEL strong as brickwall

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    Go ahead and put random numbers between 0 and 3 in all the blanks.
     
  8. rocky7

    rocky7 DAT 13

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    seems like a good project. should be interesting to see how it turns out.
     
  9. Blueline Bomber

    Blueline Bomber From the Blueline

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    Haven't decided. Initially, it was for the 5-game stretch, but then I thought whole season might be better. But then, that's easily found in any standing page out there.

    Might get rid of it all together and simply make the "Over/Off Pace" in that spot instead.
     
  10. geehaad

    geehaad Registered User

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    For a time longer than I'm willing to admit to, at first I read this comment to say that the NHL changed to the much-desired 0/1/2/3 point scoring system for a Loss/OTL/OTW/Win.

    And now I'm disappointed that it's not true....
     
  11. the halleJOKEL

    the halleJOKEL strong as brickwall

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    Maybe do the total for each 5 game stretch alongside a running over/off pace for each 5 game stretch.
     
  12. tomdundo

    tomdundo Registered User

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    I would suggest the following:


    Game 1-Result
    Game 2-Result
    Game 3-Result
    Game 4-Result
    Game 5-Result

    Points acquired over 5 game stretch

    Total points acquired/Total points desired

    In which case the "desired" is the whole 6 points in 5 games thing.


    ..which is basically what halleJOKEL said, but whatever.
     
  13. Zombie Mike Murphy

    Zombie Mike Murphy Registered User

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    I think Philly is going to be terribad this year. Their two goalies have a combined career 0.906SV%.
     
  14. tomdundo

    tomdundo Registered User

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    That's exactly why we're even more likely to lose to Philly.:laugh:
     
  15. Finlandia WOAT

    Finlandia WOAT Bench Constance Garnett

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    Oct. 4 - Detroit Red Wings
    Oct. 6 - Philadelphia Flyers
    Oct. 8 - Pittsburgh Penguins
    Oct. 10 - Washington Capitals
    Oct. 11 - Los Angeles Kings

    Considering we got 1 point from tonight's tragic OT loss, we need to either:

    Win 3 of the next 4, or:

    Win 2 of the next 4 and get 1 OT/shootout point, or:

    Win 1 of the next 4 and get 3 OT/shootout points.

    Let's see how we do against the Philadelphia. Must win game!!!! :sarcasm:
     
  16. Wolfpuck

    Wolfpuck Foeg Yeah

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    Flyers didn't look so good in their first game against the Leafs, so hopefully they're vulnerable. Penguins and Kings are going to be tough, but the Capitals are beatable as long as we don't give them power plays. The points are there, but they won't be easy. Getting through the first 10 games without being in the toilet is crucial.
     
  17. Blueline Bomber

    Blueline Bomber From the Blueline

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    Given the teams on that list, and the fact it's the start of the season, four or five points in this stretch is what I'm hoping for.

    Though obviously the more the better.
     
  18. Goodafternoon

    Goodafternoon Registered User

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    Seems easy enough to put like the 5 guys first, then the season total. Just my 2 cents
     
  19. Boom Boom Apathy

    Boom Boom Apathy Eat cookies, get fat, watch from the couch

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    Yeah, that's kind of what I was thinking. We can get the total from the standings, and I realize it's very easy to do the math ourselves, but a over/off pace in the thread would be helpful along with the total for each 5 game stretch (so we can look back and compare stretches)

    These first 8 games are pretty tough. If the Canes can even eek out half the points in those 1st eight, I'd call that a successful start to the season and something they can build on.
     
  20. rocky7

    rocky7 DAT 13

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    looking over the list for each group, I was going to try to predict the outcomes in my mind but that's futile. just have to wait till they're over because anything can happen. eg. Pittsburgh could very well be a win when it's automatic to pencil in a loss.




    ............!!! and TARHEEL, if you see this, are you going to have time to do the ob +/- this year? the vids were great to refer back to.
     
  21. Finlandia WOAT

    Finlandia WOAT Bench Constance Garnett

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    Oct. 4 - Detroit Red Wings- OT Loss
    Oct. 6 - Philadelphia Flyers- Win
    Oct. 8 - Pittsburgh Penguins
    Oct. 10 - Washington Capitals
    Oct. 11 - Los Angeles Kings

    Three games remaining. Two away, 1 home. For 6 points, it can work:

    --Win two of the next three, or;

    --Win one of the next three and get an OT/Shootout point in one more, or;

    --Get an OT/Shootout point in each game.
     
  22. Hayley from paramore

    Hayley from paramore Registered User

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    on pace to make playoffs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    cup.jpg
     
  23. Finnish Hype Train

    Finnish Hype Train rip jackstrap

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    Playoffs? We're on pace for 123 points. I think a new franchise record is all but inevitable at this point. :sarcasm:
     
  24. Anton Dubinchuk

    Anton Dubinchuk aho

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    Win or OT loss and we're good for this stretch.

    I'm not expecting it, by any means, but when you miss, better to miss by one than by 4 or 5...
     
  25. Blueline Bomber

    Blueline Bomber From the Blueline

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    Yeah, with last night's win, I'm good with this stretch. 5 points in 5 games isn't ideal, but we can likely make it up later in the season.

    But 7 points in 5 would be great :naughty:
     

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