Prospect Info: The 2019 Entry NHL Draft Thread - Part VI

[Papa Francouz]

Hopefully Turcotte, Byram, or Pod. I'd take any of them over Cozens and Dach.

I’m all-aboard the Turcotte train and have been for a while. I’d have Cozens and Byram right after Turcotte, and then Pod. I just really want them to take a center.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Caufield is a much better prospect than Yamamoto... and I like Yamamoto. But they impact in very different ways. Their only tie is that they are small and can skate. Caufield is about finding soft spots and just ripping shots... Yamamoto is more about handling the puck and dishing it out. I know all small players get compared to their peers, but Caufield reminds me more of Fleury than anybody else. Small guy, unafraid to get into dirty areas and play rough (though not nearly as aggressive), 80+ grade shot (best shot in the draft), excellent without the puck in the offensive zone....

All that said... he's not a top 8 selection simply because of risk.

Just for clarification purposes, Theo? I absolutely loved the way he played the game.

/r/hockey had an AMA with J.D. Burke from EliteProspects and he was asked about which player, does he think, has the highest upside after the big two and had the following to say :

Alex Turcotte. One scout I spoke to said that Turcotte reminds him a little bit of Patrice Bergeron, then went on to say how much he hates player comps, which, fair enough. His SEAL (Situational Era Age League) adjusted scoring rate is obscene. Those adjustments give him the second-highest adjusted points per game in the entire class. \*That information courtesy of Jeremy Davis of Next-Gen Hockey\*

Kind of interesting stuff.

Seriously, the dudes highlights include missed chances he setup on top of conversions.

I watched a lot of USNTDP in person this year and a lot of times when I'm watching in person I'm much more critical because you can see behind the play and focus on a player. For me as someone who isn't a scout by any means I can either become extremely impressed or unimpressed by good players in those situations.

Turcotte was by far, and I mean by far the player that stood out in a positive way consistently. Even Hughes had times where I wasn't too impressed.

Although I'm someone who values play away from the puck, and defensive play from forwards higher than highlight reel plays. Or maybe enjoys, more than values. I was always far more of a Forsberg fan than a Sakic fan.

Players that are just consistent and dogged are just a treat to watch. O'Reilly was the last player for the Avs that I enjoyed watching live that much outside of Landeskog.

 

[chet1926]

People were saying the exact same thing about Makar and Heiskanen at this time 2 years ago as well. Fact is the U18s are one of the most important tournaments for the draft. Its the last big tournament before the draft and is often the best chance to see how these guys match up against each other.


Caufield is playing on a stacked team but if you watch the games, he is generating a tonne of opportunity all on his own. And its not just his goal scoring that has been on display this tournament but other aspects of his game as well. He's a good passer, a solid skater, and a very smart player. And while he is undersized, it has proven to not be an issue so far as he has not problem getting involved in the contact and actually initiates it sometimes. I've seen him throw a few solid hits against bigger guys in this tournament already.


To me, he has easily played himself into that huge tier of guys that could go anywhere from ~3-12 in the draft. Cozens, Byram, Dach, Krebs, Zegras, Turcotte, Podkolzin, Boldy, Soderstrom, and Caufield.

To me he's definitely a part of that group right now. Probably towards the bottom or middle of it but definitely in it and all it takes is Colorado, or LA, or Detroit being super high on him and all of a sudden he goes at 4/5/6 instead of 10/11/12. We saw it last year with Hayton and with Kravtsov. And we saw it the year before with Makar.



Another guy who has impressed me a lot at this U18 tournament has been Newhook. I was a big skeptic of his the last couple of months because he didn't really seem to take off offensively in the BCHL like I had hoped. But he's having a strong U18 and playing with his piers has shown that he's definitely got a lot of talent. Skating is the big concern with him and whether it will be good enough to be a Center at the NHL level, like the concerns around Jost now. But he's another I wouldn't have much concern with taking at #16 at this point and could certainly see a team or two taking him in the #10 range of the draft.

Makar was listed at 5'11" 187lbs in his draft profile. Not huge but easily NHL capable body.

Caufield will probably measure in 5'6" or 5'7" 160-170lbs. That's just simply a risk. I don't care what his stats are. It's just too difficult to project how he will adapt to playing larger, stronger more physical men.

Like I said could become the Gaudreau but just as easily could become the next Grimaldi. For every 1 Gaudreau there are 20 Grimaldi types plugging away in the minors.

 

[McMetal]

Let's say we move too low with our first and Knight (who I would like to take) is gone. At what point would it be no longer too far of a reach to select Nicholas Robertson? I'm really intrigued by this kid.

Robertson is blander than oatmeal, definitely would stay away from him at 16.

I'm wondering if maybe Broberg could fall to us. He fell down the charts a little bit after the early WJC hype, but I still would love him. I'm also intrigued by Harley, but it's hard to tell if he's good or if it just looks that way because it's a down year for the OHL.

 

[S E P H]

Let's say we move too low with our first and Knight (who I would like to take) is gone. At what point would it be no longer too far of a reach to select Nicholas Robertson? I'm really intrigued by this kid.

I still love me some Robertson, had him in my top 16 and should probably finish somewhere in the mid of the first for my final list. However, consensus says he goes in the 2nd and probably in the early 2nd sadly.

I very much hope Avs get one of those USNTDP defencemen in the top 90 if we don't go for Byram at 4th overall (well even if we do grab him). I very much suggest that everyone of them; Helleson, McCarthy, Thrun, Vlasic, Warren, and York (should go in top 15) all have a good chance becoming very solid NHLers. Only one I would pass on is Fensore, but that's because he's 5'7" and 154 solid @RoyIsALegend pounds. Even then he was PPG defender in all the USHL games he's played.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Robertson is blander than oatmeal, definitely would stay away from him at 16.

I'm wondering if maybe Broberg could fall to us. He fell down the charts a little bit after the early WJC hype, but I still would love him. I'm also intrigued by Harley, but it's hard to tell if he's good or if it just looks that way because it's a down year for the OHL.

Do you dislike Robertson's build? Or his playing style? From what I hear and what I've seen, he's going to be a more offensively gifted Hinote. Given the AVs record with devloping talent, I'd take that over a swing for the fences player at 16. What impresses me most is when folks talk about his motor and willingness to go into the nasty areas. He might become a new Svatos. That is very intersting to me. We need a shoot first mentality person with a penchant for going to the net....On both the 2nd and 3rd lines.

 

[McMetal]

Do you dislike Robertson's build? Or his playing style? From what I hear and what I've seen, he's going to be a more offensively gifted Hinote. Given the AVs record with devloping talent, I'd take that over a swing for the fences player at 16. What impresses me most is when folks talk about his motor and willingness to go into the nasty areas. He might become a new Svatos. That is very intersting to me. We need a shoot first mentality person with a penchant for going to the net....On both the 2nd and 3rd lines.

Sorry, got him confused with Matthew Robertson there. Still though, if you want that kind of player, why not target Lavoie?

 

[Veritas0Aequitas]

I’m all-aboard the Turcotte train and have been for a while. I’d have Cozens and Byram right after Turcotte, and then Pod. I just really want them to take a center.

Pod is off my list and out of the top 10. He is trending downward and will drop IMO.

Turcotte, Byram, Cozens, Dach.

 

[Patagonia]

/r/hockey had an AMA with J.D. Burke from EliteProspects and he was asked about which player, does he think, has the highest upside after the big two and had the following to say :

Alex Turcotte. One scout I spoke to said that Turcotte reminds him a little bit of Patrice Bergeron, then went on to say how much he hates player comps, which, fair enough. His SEAL (Situational Era Age League) adjusted scoring rate is obscene. Those adjustments give him the second-highest adjusted points per game in the entire class. \*That information courtesy of Jeremy Davis of Next-Gen Hockey\*

Kind of interesting stuff.

Turcotte or Byram would be incredible choices.

I initially wanted Cozens, but Turcotte seems to be a better fit with his speed and 2-way game behind Mack and complement the fast play of the team. Byram could be an amazing to partner with Makar.

 

[Papa Francouz]

Pod is off my list and out of the top 10. He is trending downward and will drop IMO.

Turcotte, Byram, Cozens, Dach.

While I don’t think Pod will go 3rd anymore, I doubt he falls out of the top-10. There’s a team that will ignore his U18 performance and draft him solely based on potential. Just hope it isn’t the Avs.

Unfortunately, this means Chicago needs to take Byram or Cozens or Dach over Turcotte, which I don’t think they’ll do. I’m prepared to be crushed come draft day.

 

[Hasbro]

Like I said could become the Gaudreau but just as easily could become the next Grimaldi.

3 goals in 5 playoff games?

 

[cgf]

Like I said could become the Gaudreau but just as easily could become the next Grimaldi. For every 1 Gaudreau there are 20 Grimaldi types plugging away in the minors.

For any prospect who makes it there are 20 guys the same size who failed...regardless of what size you pick...

 

[chet1926]

3 goals in 5 playoff games?

No doubts he had a good series for Nashville.

But he is a career .26 pts per game player who set career highs in games played 53 and points 13 this year at age 26. If Caufield takes a similar career path, that's not what you want to be risking a top 10 pick on.

There are just too many variable outcomes to picking Caufield to warrant a top end pick. When you are 3 inches shorter than Johnny floppy. That's just simply a risk for a NHL team.

 

[chet1926]

For any prospect who makes it there are 20 guys the same size who failed...regardless of what size you pick...

That's fair. Every year you see tons of players fail regardless of size.

I guess for me if you go look at AHL/Europe rosters they are littered with smaller forwards who were high skill guys at one point that just couldn't find a top 6 roll in the NHL and weren't useful in a bottom 6 role.

 

[chet1926]

While I don’t think Pod will go 3rd anymore, I doubt he falls out of the top-10. There’s a team that will ignore his U18 performance and draft him solely based on potential. Just hope it isn’t the Avs.

Unfortunately, this means Chicago needs to take Byram or Cozens or Dach over Turcotte, which I don’t think they’ll do. I’m prepared to be crushed come draft day.

I do know about Podkolzin. He is showing poorly at the u18. When other guys that were near him are having good solid tournaments.

I could easily see him falling due to this poor performance and the Russian factor, he might even be available mid first round.

Other players are proving to be better at this point. You can't just not show up at a major tournament and expect to still be ranked highly. When others around you are excelling at the same tournament.

 

[cgf]

That's fair. Every year you see tons of players fail regardless of size.

I guess for me if you go look at AHL/Europe rosters they are littered with smaller forwards who were high skill guys at one point that just couldn't find a top 6 roll in the NHL and weren't useful in a bottom 6 role.

They were high skill at lower levels, but they failed to become top 6ers in the NHL because they weren't skilled enough at this level. This to is just as true of big NHLers, however. Either way the main point is that those guys failed because they weren't skilled enough, and that's not a problem with Caufield. His shot is phenomenal & he has great goalscoring instincts, to go with an NHL skillset.

 

[Gatorbait19]

Still think the best option would be to trade the pick for a 2C (I.e. Zibby or Trocheck), but if we keep the pick I want Turcotte or Byram.

Although we need secondary offense, it always feels like it’s easier to obtain offense (especially secondary scoring), then it is to get a top flight Dman, which teams are always looking for and which have a much higher trade value.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

Still think the best option would be to trade the pick for a 2C (I.e. Zibby or Trocheck), but if we keep the pick I want Turcotte or Byram.

Although we need secondary offense, it always feels like it’s easier to obtain offense (especially secondary scoring), then it is to get a top flight Dman, which teams are always looking for and which have a much higher trade value.

It depends though. For me, Turcotte could be that Bergeron/O'Reilly type forward that has a non-stop motor and is one of the top flight two-way centers in the game. He's definitely not guaranteed to go there but he's got top-tier offensive skills, along with a dedication to being a two-way forward and that non-stop motor that was mentioned.

At the same time, I'd be perfectly happy with Byram or Cozens as well.

 

[chet1926]

They were high skill at lower levels, but they failed to become top 6ers in the NHL because they weren't skilled enough at this level. This to is just as true of big NHLers, however. Either way the main point is that those guys failed because they weren't skilled enough, and that's not a problem with Caufield. His shot is phenomenal & he has great goalscoring instincts, to go with an NHL skillset.

Don't disagree with your assessment, that's not my problem with Caufield. It's the fact he is tiny.

Call me a size queen but when drafting at the top end of the draft you shouldn't be drafting risk. No matter how you slice it drafting someone who weighs 160 soaking wet, and is tops 5'6" or 5'7" is risky in a league that requires some physicality. And especially since he isn't head and shoulders better than the group of about 7-8 guys he is grouped with.

I'd put him at the bottom of that group, so somewhere in the 10-12 range. And even that to me is semi risky.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Drafting Cale Makar was a big risk.


Outside of the Top couple of picks, you're going to draft a player with some degree of risk no matter what. Caufield has the skill set to easily be a Top 5 player from this draft in a few years. That talent far outweighs the risk when you start talking about the ~8th overall pick.

 

[chet1926]

It depends though. For me, Turcotte could be that Bergeron/O'Reilly type forward that has a non-stop motor and is one of the top flight two-way centers in the game. He's definitely not guaranteed to go there but he's got top-tier offensive skills, along with a dedication to being a two-way forward and that non-stop motor that was mentioned.

At the same time, I'd be perfectly happy with Byram or Cozens as well.

There are 3 guys I'm focused on at this point and they are Turcotte, Byram and Cozens in that order. All three are solid players that play a type of game we could use.

 

[chet1926]

Drafting Cale Makar was a big risk.


Outside of the Top couple of picks, you're going to draft a player with some degree of risk no matter what. Caufield has the skill set to easily be a Top 5 player from this draft in a few years. That talent far outweighs the risk when you start talking about the ~8th overall pick.

Exactly he isn't a top 5 pick. It's not skill related it's risk related IMO around 10th is where the risk starts to level out. And it becomes a reasonable pick.

 

[Patagonia]

There are 3 guys I'm focused on at this point and they are Turcotte, Byram and Cozens in that order. All three are solid players that play a type of game we could use.

I have the same order (originally wanted Cozens) and changed my choice after Turcotte recovered from his injury.

Picking 4th might not be so bad, you get either Turcotte or Byram.

 

[Veritas0Aequitas]

There are 3 guys I'm focused on at this point and they are Turcotte, Byram and Cozens in that order. All three are solid players that play a type of game we could use.

You and I are on the same page, my man.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Drafting Cale Makar was a big risk


Outside of the Top couple of picks, you're going to draft a player with some degree of risk no matter what. Caufield has the skill set to easily be a Top 5 player from this draft in a few years. That talent far outweighs the risk when you start talking about the ~8th overall pick.

It was either him or EP, everyone else was an inferior prospect. Not sure where the big risk comes from.