Prospect Info: The 2019 Entry NHL Draft Thread - Part VI

[cgf]

It was either him or EP, everyone else was an inferior prospect. Not sure where the big risk comes from.

Any time a prospect has a longer development arc still to go the risk increases that they'll stagnate before they make good on their potential. Especially when that long road involves such a massive jump in level of competition. His skillset may not have carried much risk, but as a prospect, he certainly did.

It's the biggest thing I hold against Pod...not yet having watched his U18 performances...

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Any time a prospect has a longer development arc still to go the risk increases that they'll stagnate before they make good on their potential. Especially when that long road involves such a massive jump in level of competition. His skillset may not have carried much risk, but as a prospect, he certainly did.

It's the biggest thing I hold against Pod...not yet having watched his U18 performances...

Yeah but everyone else than EP was the worse prospect with lower upside, going with them instead of Makar sounds like the bigger risk to me

 

[Tommy Shelby]

For me it's between Cozens and Turcotte, I'd be happy with either one and feel like they would both be really good fits.

Cozens:
+Skates extremely well
+Plays all 3 zones well
+Great positioning and hockey IQ
+Anticipates plays and gets into lanes to intercept passes.
+Great goalscorer
+Plays physical but not dirty
+Is calm and composed on the ice
+Very effective on the forecheck
+Can be a really good RW if needed

-Needs to bulk up without sacrificing speed. He's so lanky right now.
-Needs to learn to shield the puck better when flying into the zone at full speed.

Could easily see him becoming a Mark Stone type player.

Turcotte:
+Has good speed
+Fantastic stick handling allows him to enter the zone like MacK and Mikko do.
+Plays hard for 60 minutes and moves his feet nonstop.
+Has a good shot especially in tight
+Has a really active stick defensively
+Doesn't get pushed around even though he's 5'11
+Really good playmaker as well.
+He's a hound on the puck

-Tends to overplay the puck because he wants to be a difference maker
-Needs to get stronger before making the jump

Could see him becoming a Marchand type player without the rat genes and physicality.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

It was either him or EP, everyone else was an inferior prospect. Not sure where the big risk comes from.

For starters the first bit isnt true at all. Go back and look at the draft day threads and you'll see a bunch of guys were given considerable attention by media to go anywhere from 4-10.

Makar was not a lock to go Top 5 and most lists actually had him more in the the ~7th overall range. He was 4th on Bobs list, but he was also 9th on ISS and 5th(Behind Mittelstadt) on Dobers lists.


It was also widely agreed upon that he was a major risk pick because of his lack of exposure to higher competition and how raw his game was.


He was quite frankly a bigger risk than what Caufield is. The only real risk to Caufield is size and those risks about his size are overblown a tonne by the same people who overrate size and toughness.

 

[S E P H]

Sorry, got him confused with Matthew Robertson there. Still though, if you want that kind of player, why not target Lavoie?

Actually I've become more open (of course not between 16th to 23rd) on M. Robertson, even though he projects toward a rugged shutdown-defender his offencive tools are pretty underrated. He has his head always up, has a strong first pass, and what I like the most about him is he's able to get his shot through from the point.

 

[cgf]

Yeah but everyone else than EP was the worse prospect with lower upside, going with them instead of Makar sounds like the bigger risk to me

That's how I view things, but that is not exactly the universal way of seeing things in this sport. A lot of scouts & NHL people seem to think that "safer prospects" are less risky to take despite their lower talent-levels. Which is why "safe is death" is such a relevant mantra when it comes to hockey.

...although I thought (& still do think that) Mittelstadt had similar talent & upside to Makar, Heiskanen & EP, I agree with your larger point; so don't wanna split hairs too much...

 

[Papa Francouz]

I do know about Podkolzin. He is showing poorly at the u18. When other guys that were near him are having good solid tournaments.

I could easily see him falling due to this poor performance and the Russian factor, he might even be available mid first round.

Other players are proving to be better at this point. You can't just not show up at a major tournament and expect to still be ranked highly. When others around you are excelling at the same tournament.

We’ll see. Dropping from 3 to outside the top-10 is rather unprecedented and I would be surprised if that actually happened. He’s still got a good deal of hype heading into the draft, even given his poor tournament performance.

 

[avsfan09]

Watching the U18's. Newhook has been impressive he has really high level passing it seems and slick hands to boot. Wouldn't mind him if he's around at #16 especially if we choose Byram at #4.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

We’ll see. Dropping from 3 to outside the top-10 is rather unprecedented and I would be surprised if that actually happened. He’s still got a good deal of hype heading into the draft, even given his poor tournament performance.

It actually has happened before.


Cam Fowler was a top 3 pick that fell to 12.

 

[LTC Pain]

Turcotte or Cozens at #4. Can't make a guess for the Avs second first round pick until the playoffs are complete.

 

[avsfan09]

Was just watching some clips of Zegras obviously not game footage but he honestly looks like Matt Duchene to me. The way he skates and stickhandles. His good traits.

 

[Patagonia]

Watching the U18's. Newhook has been impressive he has really high level passing it seems and slick hands to boot. Wouldn't mind him if he's around at #16 especially if we choose Byram at #4.

I was really high earlier on Newhook, but had similar concerns about the level of competition. Possibly another Jost?

Still prefer Knight, but 4-5 year wait is the only concern. Newhook might be a worthy high reward pick at 16th.

Imagine leaving the 1st round with:

Byram/Turcotte
Newhook

 

[Papa Francouz]

It actually has happened before.


Cam Fowler was a top 3 pick that fell to 12.

Yeah, true. Maybe history repeats itself almost 10 years later. I wasn’t watching much junior hockey back then - did he fall because of the U18 tourney? Seems like a lot of GMs messed up that pick letting him slip so far.

 

[The Abusement Park]

It actually has happened before.


Cam Fowler was a top 3 pick that fell to 12.

Didn’t Chycrun fall from like 4 to 16 too?

 

[Balthazar]

why not target Lavoie?

I'm having a hard time to believe that he'd get past Montreal if he's still available at 15. He really elevated his game and kicking ass in the Q in the playoffs.

 

[Avalanche]

If the pick stays at 16 how far up would our 2nd and Ottawa's 3rd get us?

If the pick is late 20s forget about it

 

[LTC Pain]

If the pick stays at 16 how far up would our 2nd and Ottawa's 3rd get us?

If the pick is late 20s forget about it

NHL Draft Pick Value Chart
​

Pick/Round​	1​	2​	3​	4​	5​	6​	7​
1​	1100​	395​	255​	172.5​	114​	68.5​	31​
2​	960​	390​	252.5​	170​	112.5​	67​	30​
3​	870​	380​	247.5​	167.5​	111​	65.5​	29​
4​	820​	375​	245​	166.5​	109.5​	64.5​	28​
5​	770​	370​	242.5​	163.5​	108​	63​	26.5​
6​	730​	365​	237.5​	162​	105​	61.5​	25.5​
7​	700​	360​	235​	159​	103.5​	60.5​	24.5​
8​	670​	350​	232.5​	157.5​	102​	59​	23.5​
9​	650​	345​	230​	156​	100.5​	58​	22.5​
10​	630​	340​	227.5​	153​	99​	56.5​	21​
11​	610​	335​	222.5​	151.5​	97.5​	55.5​	20​
12​	590​	330​	220​	148.5​	96​	54​	19​
13​	570​	325​	217.5​	147​	94.5​	52.5​	18​
14​	560​	320​	215​	145.5​	93​	51.5​	17​
15​	540​	317.5​	212.5​	142.5​	91.5​	50​	16​
16​	530​	312.5​	210​	141​	90​	49​	15​
17​	520​	307.5​	207.5​	139.5​	88.5​	47.5​	13.5​
18​	510​	305​	205​	138​	87​	46.5​	12.5​
19​	490​	300​	202.5​	135​	85.5​	45.5​	11.5​
20​	480​	295​	200​	133.5​	84​	44​	10.5​
21​	470​	292.5​	197.5​	132​	82.5​	43​	9.5​
22​	465​	287.5​	195​	130.5​	81​	41.5​	8.5​
23​	455​	285​	192.5​	127.5​	79.5​	40.5​	7.5​
24​	445​	280​	190​	126​	78​	39.5​	6.5​
25​	440​	275​	187.5​	124.5​	76.5​	38​	5.5​
26​	430​	272.5​	185​	123​	75​	37​	4.5​
27​	425​	270​	182.5​	121.5​	73.5​	36​	3.5​
28​	415​	265​	180​	118.5​	72​	34.5​	2.5​
29​	410​	262.5​	177.5​	117​	71​	33.5​	1.5​
30​	400​	257.5​	175​	115.5​	70​	32.5​	0.5​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Avalanche]

NHL Draft Pick Value Chart
​

Pick/Round​	1​	2​	3​	4​	5​	6​	7​
1​	1100​	395​	255​	172.5​	114​	68.5​	31​
2​	960​	390​	252.5​	170​	112.5​	67​	30​
3​	870​	380​	247.5​	167.5​	111​	65.5​	29​
4​	820​	375​	245​	166.5​	109.5​	64.5​	28​
5​	770​	370​	242.5​	163.5​	108​	63​	26.5​
6​	730​	365​	237.5​	162​	105​	61.5​	25.5​
7​	700​	360​	235​	159​	103.5​	60.5​	24.5​
8​	670​	350​	232.5​	157.5​	102​	59​	23.5​
9​	650​	345​	230​	156​	100.5​	58​	22.5​
10​	630​	340​	227.5​	153​	99​	56.5​	21​
11​	610​	335​	222.5​	151.5​	97.5​	55.5​	20​
12​	590​	330​	220​	148.5​	96​	54​	19​
13​	570​	325​	217.5​	147​	94.5​	52.5​	18​
14​	560​	320​	215​	145.5​	93​	51.5​	17​
15​	540​	317.5​	212.5​	142.5​	91.5​	50​	16​
16​	530​	312.5​	210​	141​	90​	49​	15​
17​	520​	307.5​	207.5​	139.5​	88.5​	47.5​	13.5​
18​	510​	305​	205​	138​	87​	46.5​	12.5​
19​	490​	300​	202.5​	135​	85.5​	45.5​	11.5​
20​	480​	295​	200​	133.5​	84​	44​	10.5​
21​	470​	292.5​	197.5​	132​	82.5​	43​	9.5​
22​	465​	287.5​	195​	130.5​	81​	41.5​	8.5​
23​	455​	285​	192.5​	127.5​	79.5​	40.5​	7.5​
24​	445​	280​	190​	126​	78​	39.5​	6.5​
25​	440​	275​	187.5​	124.5​	76.5​	38​	5.5​
26​	430​	272.5​	185​	123​	75​	37​	4.5​
27​	425​	270​	182.5​	121.5​	73.5​	36​	3.5​
28​	415​	265​	180​	118.5​	72​	34.5​	2.5​
29​	410​	262.5​	177.5​	117​	71​	33.5​	1.5​
30​	400​	257.5​	175​	115.5​	70​	32.5​	0.5​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Damn, so if I'm reading that right we could get the 2nd overall pick?

 

[The Abusement Park]

NHL Draft Pick Value Chart
​

Pick/Round​	1​	2​	3​	4​	5​	6​	7​
1​	1100​	395​	255​	172.5​	114​	68.5​	31​
2​	960​	390​	252.5​	170​	112.5​	67​	30​
3​	870​	380​	247.5​	167.5​	111​	65.5​	29​
4​	820​	375​	245​	166.5​	109.5​	64.5​	28​
5​	770​	370​	242.5​	163.5​	108​	63​	26.5​
6​	730​	365​	237.5​	162​	105​	61.5​	25.5​
7​	700​	360​	235​	159​	103.5​	60.5​	24.5​
8​	670​	350​	232.5​	157.5​	102​	59​	23.5​
9​	650​	345​	230​	156​	100.5​	58​	22.5​
10​	630​	340​	227.5​	153​	99​	56.5​	21​
11​	610​	335​	222.5​	151.5​	97.5​	55.5​	20​
12​	590​	330​	220​	148.5​	96​	54​	19​
13​	570​	325​	217.5​	147​	94.5​	52.5​	18​
14​	560​	320​	215​	145.5​	93​	51.5​	17​
15​	540​	317.5​	212.5​	142.5​	91.5​	50​	16​
16​	530​	312.5​	210​	141​	90​	49​	15​
17​	520​	307.5​	207.5​	139.5​	88.5​	47.5​	13.5​
18​	510​	305​	205​	138​	87​	46.5​	12.5​
19​	490​	300​	202.5​	135​	85.5​	45.5​	11.5​
20​	480​	295​	200​	133.5​	84​	44​	10.5​
21​	470​	292.5​	197.5​	132​	82.5​	43​	9.5​
22​	465​	287.5​	195​	130.5​	81​	41.5​	8.5​
23​	455​	285​	192.5​	127.5​	79.5​	40.5​	7.5​
24​	445​	280​	190​	126​	78​	39.5​	6.5​
25​	440​	275​	187.5​	124.5​	76.5​	38​	5.5​
26​	430​	272.5​	185​	123​	75​	37​	4.5​
27​	425​	270​	182.5​	121.5​	73.5​	36​	3.5​
28​	415​	265​	180​	118.5​	72​	34.5​	2.5​
29​	410​	262.5​	177.5​	117​	71​	33.5​	1.5​
30​	400​	257.5​	175​	115.5​	70​	32.5​	0.5​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This isn’t that accurate.

 

[Iceberg]

Damn, so if I'm reading that right we could get the 2nd overall pick?

And if we add a 7th we get Hughes.

 

[Patagonia]

X - Axis (Round)
Y - Axis (Pick)

AVs would have the 16th pick in each round;

1st - 530 (16th)
2nd - 312.5
3rd - 210

Based on the chart the 2nd + 3rd = 522.5 or approx. 17th pick.

 

[Goulet17]

SIAP - Article with excerpted comments from Chicago's VP of Amateur Scouting on the draft and specific prospects.

Blackhawks' search for the No. 3 pick began long before they moved up in the draft lottery

Kelley on prospects the Hawks could take with the No. 3 pick:

Bowen Byram, defenseman, Vancouver (Western Hockey League): “He is a very opportunistic defenseman. Great skater, great hands. He creates offense. Great transition game, pushes the pace.”

Peyton Krebs, center, Kootenay (Western Hockey League): “He has a great skill set. He has a great motor, a great compete level. Had a tough year because he played on the Kootenay Ice; the team wasn’t very good. Also the team is relocating to Winnipeg, so there was a cloud kind of over them. You talk about a player that was able to stay focused. He had a fantastic year with all of the obstacles he faced. Showed what kind of character he has.”

Dylan Cozens, center, Lethbridge (Western Hockey League): “He is a big, powerful centerman. Great skater, great competitor. Two-way game. You can find him making plays coming into the zone, you can find him battling and scoring goals right in the paint, right in the grease.”

Kirby Dach, center, Saskatoon (Western Hockey League): “Great set of hands, very, very smart, aware hockey player. With the puck and without the puck, very, very easy to find and notice on the ice.”

Vasili Podkolzin, right wing, SKA St. Petersburg (Kontinental Hockey League): “He fits more to that whole power-forward-type thing. Great skill set to go with a powerful skater. He’s physically strong, plays a lot of the game inside the dots.”

Alex Turcotte, center, U.S. National Development Team: “A little bit like Krebs. Alex was hurt earlier in the year and he’s out right now with an illness. But what you’ll really like about Alex is the way he competes. A 200-foot game, you just know what you’re going to get. You can see him playing with your top line. You can put him out there at the end of the game to shut down (the opponent’s) top center.”

Trevor Zegras, center, U.S. National Development Team: “Great skater, great vision. Makes plays. He can play fast, he makes fast plays. But a really exciting player.”

 

[lonelybadger]

Hawks are taking Turcotte aren't they?

 

[McMetal]

I'm having a hard time to believe that he'd get past Montreal if he's still available at 15. He really elevated his game and kicking ass in the Q in the playoffs.

True, hadn't thought of that. He's the perfect pick for them.

 

[Nihiliste]

SIAP - Article with excerpted comments from Chicago's VP of Amateur Scouting on the draft and specific prospects.

Blackhawks' search for the No. 3 pick began long before they moved up in the draft lottery

Kelley on prospects the Hawks could take with the No. 3 pick:

Bowen Byram, defenseman, Vancouver (Western Hockey League): “He is a very opportunistic defenseman. Great skater, great hands. He creates offense. Great transition game, pushes the pace.”

Peyton Krebs, center, Kootenay (Western Hockey League): “He has a great skill set. He has a great motor, a great compete level. Had a tough year because he played on the Kootenay Ice; the team wasn’t very good. Also the team is relocating to Winnipeg, so there was a cloud kind of over them. You talk about a player that was able to stay focused. He had a fantastic year with all of the obstacles he faced. Showed what kind of character he has.”

Dylan Cozens, center, Lethbridge (Western Hockey League): “He is a big, powerful centerman. Great skater, great competitor. Two-way game. You can find him making plays coming into the zone, you can find him battling and scoring goals right in the paint, right in the grease.”

Kirby Dach, center, Saskatoon (Western Hockey League): “Great set of hands, very, very smart, aware hockey player. With the puck and without the puck, very, very easy to find and notice on the ice.”

Vasili Podkolzin, right wing, SKA St. Petersburg (Kontinental Hockey League): “He fits more to that whole power-forward-type thing. Great skill set to go with a powerful skater. He’s physically strong, plays a lot of the game inside the dots.”

Alex Turcotte, center, U.S. National Development Team: “A little bit like Krebs. Alex was hurt earlier in the year and he’s out right now with an illness. But what you’ll really like about Alex is the way he competes. A 200-foot game, you just know what you’re going to get. You can see him playing with your top line. You can put him out there at the end of the game to shut down (the opponent’s) top center.”

Trevor Zegras, center, U.S. National Development Team: “Great skater, great vision. Makes plays. He can play fast, he makes fast plays. But a really exciting player.”

Sounds like he favors Turcotte unfortunately.