Prospect Info: The 2019 Entry NHL Draft Thread - Part IX

[cgf]

Tavares and Brian Boyle are the big ones for significant improvement in their skating.

True, but it's a little different with bigger guys who just needed to get their skating up to par, than it is with smaller guys who needed their skating to become their advantage in the NHL.

 

[henchman21]

Mackinnon has added a significant amount of power/initial burst since junior.

Not quite what Henchy is getting at I think but kinda close?

He's always been an elite skater by his peer group. I'd say the year that MacK really bulked up, you saw his burst drop way down... when he thinned back down, his skating went back to where it was prior.

 

[henchman21]

Tavares and Brian Boyle are the big ones for significant improvement in their skating.

Boyle is a great example of a deeply flawed skater that was probably in the bottom 5 skating players in the league... he sought out some help and Underhill worked some magic to make him NHL average.

Figure Skater Refines This Ranger's Stride

 

[cgf]

While procrastinating studying I was reminded of these...



Just do the right thing Joe <3

and found this:


Henchy, am I right to think (hope) that Pod's skating has some clear things that might be fixed to unlock a higher level of skating?

 

[timothy jimothy]

Logically your way of thinking makes sense to me, but I'm curious what the best test cases of the counter-opinion are? Who were the guys who had very polished techniques as prospects and who's skating improved dramatically just from filling out?


This is very intriguing because with shooting a basketball...another sporting topic where the technical elements of a player's actions are deeply scrutinized by fans...I am much more sympathetic with the good mechanics + time = good shooter camp. As shooting a basketball is much more of a pure skill thing, where even guys with textbook mechanics...who don't have problems with their elbow flaring out, not squaring up before their shots, releasing the ball after the apex of their jump, poor-arm alignment or hand positioning, an obvious hitch in their motion, etc...can regularly see their shooting improve with increased refinement/practice. Although even in that pure skill action you see guys like Ben McLemore; who has one of the most beautiful strokes that can't hit the broadside of a barn...even after years of refinement.

But skating is much more of an athletic action, where the technical aspect is all about transferring that athleticism into mobility around the ice. So it makes a lot of sense to me for it to be tougher to improve significantly unless there are obvious technical errors to correct...at least when it comes to burst & speed, edgework seems like something that should continually improve for players with continued refinement in a way that it doesn't make sense to me for their explosiveness to continue growing past their athletic peak.


In football there isn't a single thing that fans can obsess about a player's technique with, because technical errors are much more situational...i.e. using the wrong part of the foot to receive a certain type of pass or to shoot from a certain area, not having the touch to bring a ball in, or hitting the wrong part of the ball to drop a pass exactly where it needs to be, etc. There's no one thing for fans to clutch onto and discuss like a hockey player's stride or a basketball player's stroke.

I really can't think of that many... part of why I'm on that side of the fence. Sedins and Getzlaf come to mind, but I don't recall their early years as much with regards to their technique so I might be off base. Recently I'd say Larkin when from a very good to near elite skater by filling out.. not really the same thing.

I think this is a moot point with Newhook, because I truly believe he is already a great skater. It's funny you mentioned Larkin henchy because I think Newhook's game is pretty comparable to him. Anyway, if that's how you guys feel about his skating, that it's good technically but doesn't translate or won't improve, I'll play along and say that is the case with him.

I don't see bad technique+developed physically or good technique+underdeveloped physically as favourable over one other. Every player is different, and every player is going to develop differently. Lots of successes and failures on both sides. Some good examples of good technique+undeveloped players that had a big improvement in their skating after they got stronger: Joe Sakic, Pavel Datsyuk, Duncan Keith, Marian Hossa, Ryan Kesler, Steven Stamkos, Erik Karlsson, Jared Spurgeon. On the other hand there are some players with poor skating technique that just didn't put it together, but were still successful anyway. Guys like Dave Andreychuk, Phil Esposito, Luc Robitaille, Brendan Shanahan, Ryan Smyth, Jason Allison, Andrew Brunette, Scott Hartnell, Bobby Ryan, Milan Lucic, Wayne Simmonds. Neither path has an advantage in my opinion.

You guys seem to watch a lot of hockey, I honestly think it's pretty crazy you are saying you can't think of anyone with good skating technique that has improved it. Maybe it's less noticeable because it's a more natural and gradual progression for a player to start with good technique and get stronger in the NHL than it is for someone to be strong and then fix a glaring issue with bad technique?

-------

The only critique I can really see with Newhook's skating is that his feet are so quick that his stride can get choppy and inefficient at times. However, a choppy stride can be worked on, the fast twitch that he displays is something you either have or you don't.

 

[Pokecheque]

People have said Paul Stastny significantly improved his skating transitioning from DU to the Avalanche. I really didn't notice that to be honest, but he found ways to be effective without necessarily being fleet of foot. That's the one commonality I see with top-tier players who have skating issues--they usually make up for it with an almost preternatural level of hockey sense. That's definitely the case with O'Reilly and Tavares, and to a lesser degree with Stastny. They just know where to be and when. And that's my biggest concern with Jost.

 

[timothy jimothy]

While procrastinating studying I was reminded of these...



Just do the right thing Joe <3

and found this:


Henchy, am I right to think that Pod's skating has some clear things that might be fixed to unlock a higher level of skating?

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Podkolzin has lots of stuff that he can work on with his skating, even though it already seems to work for him.

 

[henchman21]

Oh yeah... Pods has some significant skating issues. He is really hunched over, which causes a balance issue, which causes him to not get full extension on his stride. Forcing him to be a bit more upright will allow him to get full extension and thus full power out of each stride. It is going to take some hammy work though and he's going to have really develop that muscle without overworking the rest of his legs. It will take some dedicated weight training and a good skating instructor, but I think it can be fixed to an extent. Now if he can't get the hammies built up correctly, and/or the quick twitch just isn't there genetically, he will have some issues getting rid of the heel kick. Fixed and gone perfectly I think he could be an above average skater, but I don't think there is much beyond that in him.

 

[Foppa2118]

Y'all love reading into any little comments by Hepple...

Hepple's comments have aligned with what they've done in the past.

He gushed all over Makar and Jost before picking them. He said he didn't think Chychrun had much offense in him, and then passed on him when they could have taken him. Every year he signals that they won't take one of the higher ranked goaltenders (that may change this year at #16) and then they don't.

Not sure if they'll take Byram, but Sakic and Hepple don't play with words. They tend to signal how they feel every once in a while. Sakic even more so.

 

[timothy jimothy]

Oh yeah... Pods has some significant skating issues. He is really hunched over, which causes a balance issue, which causes him to not get full extension on his stride. Forcing him to be a bit more upright will allow him to get full extension and thus full power out of each stride. It is going to take some hammy work though and he's going to have really develop that muscle without overworking the rest of his legs. It will take some dedicated weight training and a good skating instructor, but I think it can be fixed to an extent. Now if he can't get the hammies built up correctly, and/or the quick twitch just isn't there genetically, he will have some issues getting rid of the heel kick. Fixed and gone perfectly I think he could be an above average skater, but I don't think there is much beyond that in him.

People have said Paul Stastny significantly improved his skating transitioning from DU to the Avalanche. I really didn't notice that to be honest, but he found ways to be effective without necessarily being fleet of foot. That's the one commonality I see with top-tier players who have skating issues--they usually make up for it with an almost preternatural level of hockey sense. That's definitely the case with O'Reilly and Tavares, and to a lesser degree with Stastny. They just know where to be and when. And that's my biggest concern with Jost.

Hockey IQ is definitely a must in my opinion if you not a good skater.

 

[henchman21]

You guys seem to watch a lot of hockey, I honestly think it's pretty crazy you are saying you can't think of anyone with good skating technique that has improved it. Maybe it's less noticeable because it's a more natural and gradual progression for a player to start with good technique and get stronger in the NHL than it is for someone to be strong and then fix a glaring issue with bad technique?

Players with good technique from a young age, tend to always be on the higher end of skating in their age groups... or are at least above average. The gaps certainly narrow as players progress up the ranks. A junior player who is good amongst his peers should continue to be good in the NHL or at least be average. An elite player should continue to be elite. I believe it to be rare that a player with good technique who is average against his peers jumps forward to good or elite by just aging and getting stronger. You listed a lot of players who were elite in their group of skating like Karlsson and Datsyuk. Datsyuk got faster, but he was always great on his edges and nimble as f with great extension. I'm not old enough to remember 1990 Sakic, and I'd argue that was a completely different era of skating. Basically since the last (full season) lockout, the figure skating coach approach has changed the way skating is looked at in the NHL. Now it started in the late 90s, but really hit full steam in 08/09. The improvements from average 30 years ago isn't the same as the improvement from average today... the bar is so, so much higher. Hell, I see 14/15 year old kids today that could outskate the 18-20 year olds I last played with in the early 2000s (some who made the NHL and some still playing). The single biggest change in hockey skills in my life around the game is how well the kids can skate... it is really a mindblowing difference.

 

[timothy jimothy]

Players with good technique from a young age, tend to always be on the higher end of skating in their age groups... or are at least above average. The gaps certainly narrow as players progress up the ranks. A junior player who is good amongst his peers should continue to be good in the NHL or at least be average. An elite player should continue to be elite. I believe it to be rare that a player with good technique who is average against his peers jumps forward to good or elite by just aging and getting stronger. You listed a lot of players who were elite in their group of skating like Karlsson and Datsyuk. Datsyuk got faster, but he was always great on his edges and nimble as f with great extension. I'm not old enough to remember 1990 Sakic, and I'd argue that was a completely different era of skating. Basically since the last (full season) lockout, the figure skating coach approach has changed the way skating is looked at in the NHL. Now it started in the late 90s, but really hit full steam in 08/09. The improvements from average 30 years ago isn't the same as the improvement from average today... the bar is so, so much higher. Hell, I see 14/15 year old kids today that could outskate the 18-20 year olds I last played with in the early 2000s (some who made the NHL and some still playing). The single biggest change in hockey skills in my life around the game is how well the kids can skate... it is really a mindblowing difference.

I disagree on Karlsson. Maybe it's hard to believe because of just how good of a skater is (at least before Matt Cooke) but he was just thought as someone with good albeit not great skating but had great technique and lateral movement. Needed to add strength. If he was an elite skater among his peers he would've been an easy top 10 pick in 2008 and right up there with Doughty who had undeniable elite level skating. He took a very big step in his skating.

Some of those older guys are just who I'm really familiar with, but even current players like Kasperi Kapanen and Roope Hintz come to mind. Started with good technique but have taken big steps in their skating. This isn't some unheard of unicorn player in the NHL that you are making it out to be.

I don't think skating technique of elite skaters has really changed that much either in the past 30 years. Only real difference I see skating-wise in the NHL is that everybody is good at it. More access to the information, rather than more advancements to the information.

 

[cgf]

Oh yeah... Pods has some significant skating issues. He is really hunched over, which causes a balance issue, which causes him to not get full extension on his stride. Forcing him to be a bit more upright will allow him to get full extension and thus full power out of each stride. It is going to take some hammy work though and he's going to have really develop that muscle without overworking the rest of his legs. It will take some dedicated weight training and a good skating instructor, but I think it can be fixed to an extent. Now if he can't get the hammies built up correctly, and/or the quick twitch just isn't there genetically, he will have some issues getting rid of the heel kick. Fixed and gone perfectly I think he could be an above average skater, but I don't think there is much beyond that in him.

Fortunately that sounds like stuff that can be done with enough work, which I have no doubts about Pod putting in.

 

[henchman21]

I disagree on Karlsson. Maybe it's hard to believe because of just how good of a skater is (at least before Matt Cooke) but he was just thought as someone with good albeit not great skating but had great technique and lateral movement. Needed to add strength. If he was an elite skater among his peers he would've been an easy top 10 pick in 2008 and right up there with Doughty who had undeniable elite level skating. He took a very big step in his skating.

Some of those older guys are just who I'm really familiar with, but even current players like Kasperi Kapanen and Roope Hintz come to mind. Started with good technique but have taken big steps in their skating. This isn't some unheard of unicorn player in the NHL that you are making it out to be.

I don't think skating technique of elite skaters has really changed that much either in the past 30 years. Only real difference I see skating-wise in the NHL is that everybody is good at it. More access to the information, rather than more advancements to the information.

Karlsson slipped because he was 5'11" and weighed as much as a wet towel... in 2008 that was a no-no amongst defensemen so they didn't project him as elite. Kapanen has always been a high end skater... I loved him during his draft year even through his struggles, but he always had skating in his corner. Hintz had a technical hitch relating to his extension (heel kick), but also was always a very good to great skater for his size. Hintz still has it on longer shifts and he gets tired... many players have their stride breakdown in those situations though.

In other words... the players you are mentioning to me are players who were slotted in the very good to great skating categories amongst their peers, and have maintained that as they developed. They weren't average skaters amongst their 17/18 year old age group that suddenly jumped to great in the NHL.

 

[shadow1]

Thanks for posting, it was a good listen.

Impossible to read the tea leaves on, but Hepple said he had a good idea who Chicago is taking, and implied the Avalanche are more focused on sorting out what was going to be on the board at 16.

 

[henchman21]

Fortunately that sounds like stuff that can be done with enough work, which I have no doubts about Pod putting in.

My main concern on Pods' skating stems actually from his desire to work

Let me explain... I believe there is a chance he develops his other leg muscles too quickly and they outshine the hamstring muscles leaving them weaker by proxy and not forcing the strength and flexibility needed there. I'm probably a bit too new school on this, but I would seriously take away 75+% of his weight training away. He's plenty strong now and with his tenacity I think he will always be a handful to deal with. I would put him on a real heavy dose of yoga, plyometrics, and structured skating exercises... don't worry about getting to 210... stay around 190-195 and gain as much explosion as possible.

 

[timothy jimothy]

Karlsson slipped because he was 5'11" and weighed as much as a wet towel... in 2008 that was a no-no amongst defensemen so they didn't project him as elite. Kapanen has always been a high end skater... I loved him during his draft year even through his struggles, but he always had skating in his corner. Hintz had a technical hitch relating to his extension (heel kick), but also was always a very good to great skater for his size. Hintz still has it on longer shifts and he gets tired... many players have their stride breakdown in those situations though.

In other words... the players you are mentioning to me are players who were slotted in the very good to great skating categories amongst their peers, and have maintained that as they developed. They weren't average skaters amongst their 17/18 year old age group that suddenly jumped to great in the NHL.

I don't think anyone serious would've knocked Karlsson for his size if they thought he could play, even at the time he was drafted. We were beyond the size is everything stuff by 2008, that draft you still had small guys like Tyler Ennis, Jordan Eberle and Zach Boychuk, Nikita Filatov going in the first round. Heck, the greatest defensemen to ever play the game, Bobby Orr, was only 6'0" but his skating ability was so far above everyone else that it didn't matter... That was only in late 60s/early 70s. An NHL scout isn't going to turn down this generation's Bobby Orr because he was 5'11".

You are missing my point. The players I am listing are good technical skaters that improved their skating ability after they got stronger. They may be good and improved to great, they may be great and improved to elite, they may be bad and improved to good. The players you are dismissing, you are overestimating where their skating was at before they improved it.

 

[henchman21]

I don't think anyone serious would've knocked Karlsson for his size if they thought he could play, even at the time he was drafted. We were beyond the size is everything stuff by 2008, that draft you still had small guys like Tyler Ennis, Jordan Eberle and Zach Boychuk, Nikita Filatov going in the first round. Heck, the greatest defensemen to ever play the game, Bobby Orr, was only 6'0" but his skating ability was so far above everyone else that it didn't matter... That was only in late 60s/early 70s. An NHL scout isn't going to turn down this generation's Bobby Orr because he was 5'11".

You are missing my point. The players I am listing are good technical skaters that improved their skating ability after they got stronger. They may be good and improved to great, they may be great and improved to elite, they may be bad and improved to good. The players you are dismissing, you are overestimating where their skating was at before they improved it.

It was widely thought Karlsson would have been a top 10 pick if he was 6' 180 at the time. Karlsson is a part of the reason that mantra is going away. Even in 2008 it was tough to project even the most skilled defensemen as a future #1 when under 6'. Karlsson grew a touch and gained weight, but still far from big... his success though, has changed the outlook.

I'm not missing your point, I fully understand what you're saying. I simply disagree in the assessment. I was always a big Kapanen fan and watched a lot of the kid (I'm sure I have plenty of posting history there.... good and bad). Hintz was a 2nd round fav of mine in 2015. Their skating is something I've watched for a while. Where we disagree is slotting. If you though Kapanen was just a 'good' skater at 17/18... then we disagree where he was there (IMO he was great, nearing elite). I don't think dramatic skating improvement happens with strength. There are surely edge cases, but the vast majority maintain. You pointed out Hintz too, where I listed a technical flaw... he was always a very good skater for his size. The flaw in his stride is improving and he is still a very good skater for his size... not quite elite but very good.

 

[timothy jimothy]

It was widely thought Karlsson would have been a top 10 pick if he was 6' 180 at the time. Karlsson is a part of the reason that mantra is going away. Even in 2008 it was tough to project even the most skilled defensemen as a future #1 when under 6'. Karlsson grew a touch and gained weight, but still far from big... his success though, has changed the outlook.

I'm not missing your point, I fully understand what you're saying. I simply disagree in the assessment. I was always a big Kapanen fan and watched a lot of the kid (I'm sure I have plenty of posting history there.... good and bad). Hintz was a 2nd round fav of mine in 2015. Their skating is something I've watched for a while. Where we disagree is slotting. If you though Kapanen was just a 'good' skater at 17/18... then we disagree where he was there (IMO he was great, nearing elite). I don't think dramatic skating improvement happens with strength. There are surely edge cases, but the vast majority maintain. You pointed out Hintz too, where I listed a technical flaw... he was always a very good skater for his size. The flaw in his stride is improving and he is still a very good skater for his size... not quite elite but very good.

I honestly don't know what else to tell you about Karlsson. This size thing for defensemen was non-issue by then. Teams had a good look at what small elite skating defensemen like Kris Letang could do by then, and they weren't going to let a guy fall through the cracks for simply being small.

"Capable skater" Hockey's Future - Erik Karlsson

"Good speed... Not overly outstanding" Erik Karlsson | Erik Karlsson Profile | Erik Karlsson Scouting Report 2008

He was a smooth skater that relied on his technical ability, he was nowhere close to the skating ability that we know him for. Started out as good but improved to probably top 5 in the world after he added strength. If that doesn't fit your description of a player with good technique, but physically underdeveloped that improved their skating ability then my argument is going to fall on deaf ears no matter what I say.

I thought of Kapanen as good-great, but is now elite in the NHL. Again his improvement seems to come from getting stronger. I don't see that with Hintz either, he's always been a very good technical skater. You seem to only be seeing it when he is tired which isn't fair to consider a flaw in skating--everyone is going to sacrifice at least a little bit of technique when they are tired.

 

[henchman21]

I honestly don't know what else to tell you about Karlsson. This size thing for defensemen was non-issue by then. Teams had a good look at what small elite skating defensemen like Kris Letang could do by then, and they weren't going to let a guy fall through the cracks for simply being small.

"Capable skater" Hockey's Future - Erik Karlsson

"Good speed... Not overly outstanding" Erik Karlsson | Erik Karlsson Profile | Erik Karlsson Scouting Report 2008

He was a smooth skater that relied on his technical ability, he was nowhere close to the skating ability that we know him for. Started out as good but improved to probably top 5 in the world after he added strength. If that doesn't fit your description of a player with good technique, but physically underdeveloped that improved their skating ability then my argument is going to fall on deaf ears no matter what I say.

I thought of Kapanen as good-great, but is now elite in the NHL. Again his improvement seems to come from getting stronger. I don't see that with Hintz either, he's always been a very good technical skater. You seem to only be seeing it when he is tired which isn't fair to consider a flaw in skating--everyone is going to sacrifice at least a little bit of technique when they are tired.

Also don’t know what to say... I’ll dig up the article from the Ottawa citizen right after the draft about it and post it here in a bit. We see it differently and that is okay. I know plenty of people and scouts who believe the same as you. Scouting is an art, not a science.

Everything's turning up Swede

"After Karlsson was selected and scouts were free to talk, Andersson told Tim Murray that Karlsson was the best European in the draft. At 15th overall, he's hardly a sleeper. Some had him rated as a top-10 pick. His one drawback is size, at 5-10, 157 pounds."

 

[Tommy Shelby]

Of course Chambers asked about Bobby "Heading to DU" Brink

 

[Ararana]

Jesus has Dater ever done an interview without making it awkward as f***? You could even hear what I’m assuming is Avs PR laughing in the background.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I don't think anyone serious would've knocked Karlsson for his size if they thought he could play, even at the time he was drafted. We were beyond the size is everything stuff by 2008, that draft you still had small guys like Tyler Ennis, Jordan Eberle and Zach Boychuk, Nikita Filatov going in the first round. Heck, the greatest defensemen to ever play the game, Bobby Orr, was only 6'0" but his skating ability was so far above everyone else that it didn't matter... That was only in late 60s/early 70s. An NHL scout isn't going to turn down this generation's Bobby Orr because he was 5'11".

You are missing my point. The players I am listing are good technical skaters that improved their skating ability after they got stronger. They may be good and improved to great, they may be great and improved to elite, they may be bad and improved to good. The players you are dismissing, you are overestimating where their skating was at before they improved it.

You realize you just listed 5 forwards when talking about the league perception of undersized Defenseman right?


I am sorry but you are flat out wrong on this one. There was most definitely a major concern about undersized Dmen back in 2008, hell I dont think you truly started to turn the corner on that stigma until probably 2011 or 2012 really, and as Henchy said a large part of why that stigma changed was because of the success of Erik Karlsson.

I honestly don't know what else to tell you about Karlsson. This size thing for defensemen was non-issue by then. Teams had a good look at what small elite skating defensemen like Kris Letang could do by then, and they weren't going to let a guy fall through the cracks for simply being small.

...once again. You realize Letang is 6'0" 200 and was drafted at 185 right? That is a huge difference even today compared to a 5'10" 155 Karlsson when he was drafted.


Additionally, Letang hadn't proven anything at all in the league when Karlsson was drafted. He was a 3rd round pick who had just played his first season and put up a very modest 17 points in 68 games on probably the best offensive team in the league. He had proven nothing at all.

 

[Papa Francouz]

Jesus has Dater ever done an interview without making it awkward as ****? You could even hear what I’m assuming is Avs PR laughing in the background.

No.

 

[LTC Pain]

Some good info here:

Decisions Await Avalanche on Draft Day