Prospect Info: The 2019 Entry NHL Draft Thread - Part IV

[Brett44]

Terrible because the top 2 players are so much better than anybody else. Going from #2 to #8 is a huge downgrade, like monumentally huge loss just to pick Horvat from all of that. I would rather trade Barrie++ to get Quinn Hughes instead.

Horvat+ Krebs >>> Hugues
Horvat is a better 2c than 150 pounds centerman.
For Ivan13
First the draft will be at vancouver and for the big show i'm sure canuck want Hughes.
May be canuck don't want but we can add something like 2nd 2020 or Bowers or Kamenev or Kerfoot.

 

[cgf]

Horvat+ Krebs >>> Hugues
Horvat is a better 2c than 150 pounds centerman.
For Ivan13
First the draft will be at vancouver and for the big show i'm sure canuck want Hughes.
May be canuck don't want but we can add something like 2nd 2020 or Bowers or Kamenev or Kerfoot.

Nah. Hughes for EP is one you think about, but Hughes for Horvat plus anyone but Kakko is an easy no...if the lotto gods hook us up...

 

[Brett44]

Nah. Hughes for EP is one you think about, but Hughes for Horvat plus anyone but Kakko is an easy no...if the lotto gods hook us up...

In 2017 everybody think Hischier and Patrick far better than EP.
I say Krebs but it's possible To be Dach,Boldy,Podkolzin Cozens,Byram,Turcotte,Zegras

 

[RoyIsALegend]

If we were to trade down from 10 to 18 and not pick Knight I'd be pretty damn pissed off, to say the least. That'd be a horrible mistake to trade down and draft a skater, holy **** that'd be bad.

Seriously.

If you’re trading down, it should be for that guy who has slipped but fills a huge need.

To move back 8 spots and take a worse skater than we would get at the hypothetical 10 spot... just to add an extra, even later pick... would be asinine. Just take the higher end skater at 10 and don’t bother at that point.

 

[henchman21]

When you get past pick 8/9, you have a very wide tier that any team could like 'their' guy and select them much higher than people think. If the Avs end up picking around 10-16, just pick your guy and move on unless you find a team willing to move down from ~7/8.

 

[Chiarelli]

When you get past pick 8/9, you have a very wide tier that any team could like 'their' guy and select them much higher than people think. If the Avs end up picking around 10-16, just pick your guy and move on unless you find a team willing to move down from ~7/8.

Agree on the idea. But curious who are your top 8/9 as I would have that grouping as more like 10 to 11 players

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

If we were to trade down from 10 to 18 and not pick Knight I'd be pretty damn pissed off, to say the least. That'd be a horrible mistake to trade down and draft a skater, holy **** that'd be bad.

That's your opinion. I like Heinola a lot more then Knight so I would much prefer him.

 

[Hasbro]

If the Avalanche ever do a trade with the Great Pacific Garbage Patch the return better be so great their slime fans lament that more than the Neeley trade.

 

[Balthazar]

That's your opinion. I like Heinola a lot more then Knight so I would much prefer him.

The point is if Heinola is the best player at 10 pick him, if not pick the better one. There's no reason to downgrade our player to get an extra pick later. Not in our situation...so I'd not call that "my opinion" but mere common sense.

Knight is an entirely different beast as many experts see him with an elite/franchise player ceiling. If he wasn't a goalie he'd be easily top 5 in potential alone, maybe top 3. So you downgrade your pick for someone with a lower floor but a higher ceiling than whoever is left at 10.

 

[cgf]

In 2017 everybody think Hischier and Patrick far better than EP.
I say Krebs but it's possible To be Dach,Boldy,Podkolzin Cozens,Byram,Turcotte,Zegras

How well did that work in 2018, 2016, 2015 or 2013? ;-)

2017 was an exception because there was no clear cut top talent in that draft. This draft there are 2 savants that are clearly ahead of the pack...they may not end up the best players from this draft, but the odds are in their favor & that's a dumb risk to take if the only reward is a second line Center.

OT:
The 2017 draft is a good lesson in courage when things aren't clearcut like they are this year, or were in those drafts I listed above. The teams getting rewarded most for the top picks in 2017 are the ones that "gambled" on "risky" talent; with Hischier surpassing expectations as a rookie, Heiskanen & EP thriving in the NHL as sophomores, Cale looking like the best prospect in any NHL team's pipeline, Necas looking sexy, etc.

The only big 'gamble on talent' that isn't looking super hot right now is Mittelstadt...though I attribute that to his rushing to the NHL; as he should've been battling Cale for the Hobey Baker this season...plus I still think he's going to become a dynamic top 6 C, it's just going to require a bumpier road to get there now.

Whereas I can't think of any "safer" picks from that class that I'm high on.

 

[filip85]

Tomorrow starts Liiga playoffs. Kakko's Turku is playing HPK in 1/4 finals. Game starts 17:00 CET, there will be stream on usual streaming sites.

 

[S E P H]

Heinola is quite good, has a lot of tools and plays a very NHL style of game (should become a good mid pairing reliable defender). But I don't see him having top end offencive potential you want for a player around 10th - I would much rather pick York if that were the case. And I would definitely prefer to grab Knight before Heinola if it ever came down to both of them.

 

[Brett44]

How well did that work in 2018, 2016, 2015 or 2013? ;-)

2017 was an exception because there was no clear cut top talent in that draft. This draft there are 2 savants that are clearly ahead of the pack...they may not end up the best players from this draft, but the odds are in their favor & that's a dumb risk to take if the only reward is a second line Center.

OT:
The 2017 draft is a good lesson in courage when things aren't clearcut like they are this year, or were in those drafts I listed above. The teams getting rewarded most for the top picks in 2017 are the ones that "gambled" on "risky" talent; with Hischier surpassing expectations as a rookie, Heiskanen & EP thriving in the NHL as sophomores, Cale looking like the best prospect in any NHL team's pipeline, Necas looking sexy, etc.

The only big 'gamble on talent' that isn't looking super hot right now is Mittelstadt...though I attribute that to his rushing to the NHL; as he should've been battling Cale for the Hobey Baker this season...plus I still think he's going to become a dynamic top 6 C, it's just going to require a bumpier road to get there now.

Whereas I can't think of any "safer" picks from that class that I'm high on.

I'm not sure 2019 is clear cut we can talk about 2019 draft in 2024.

 

[cgf]

I'm not sure 2019 is clear cut we can talk about 2019 draft in 2024.

That's fine, but there were folks who thought that those other years weren't clear cut either

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

The point is if Heinola is the best player at 10 pick him, if not pick the better one. There's no reason to downgrade our player to get an extra pick later. Not in our situation...so I'd not call that "my opinion" but mere common sense.

Knight is an entirely different beast as many experts see him with an elite/franchise player ceiling. If he wasn't a goalie he'd be easily top 5 in potential alone, maybe top 3. So you downgrade your pick for someone with a lower floor but a higher ceiling than whoever is left at 10.

There's all kinds of reasons. After the first ~10 or so players this draft blows wide open. Very little separation between a player at #10 and a player at #18. If the Avs are high on a couple guys like Caufield or Heinola and believe they could still be had at #18 it makes a tonne of sense to move down.


You really struggle with thinking outside the box dont you.

 

[Muffin]

If we drop to 4th is it likely whoever we pick at 4th makes the NHL next year?

 

[Balthazar]

If we drop to 4th is it likely whoever we pick at 4th makes the NHL next year?

It's unlikely that the player will have a big impact if he does.

 

[Hasbro]

If we drop to 4th is it likely whoever we pick at 4th makes the NHL next year?

Junior forward: Maybe

Byram, College or Euro forward: probably at least a year.

 

[cgf]

There's all kinds of reasons. After the first ~10 or so players this draft blows wide open. Very little separation between a player at #10 and a player at #18. If the Avs are high on a couple guys like Caufield or Heinola and believe they could still be had at #18 it makes a tonne of sense to move down.


You really struggle with thinking outside the box dont you.

That wide range of opinions is why you should just take your guy because you don't know who happens to be high on whom.

 

[Foppa2118]

If we drop to 4th is it likely whoever we pick at 4th makes the NHL next year?

My guess is they'd take whoever is left out of Cozens and Byram. If it's Byram I think they'll most likely give him another year in junior as a defenseman. If it's Cozens, I think he'll get a shot in camp to prove whether he's ready or not. I'd give him 50/50 chances.

 

[BleedWell]

That's your opinion. I like Heinola a lot more then Knight so I would much prefer him.

That is the right opinion. Your opinion is wrong as usual. Heinola will be a good AHLer that's it.

 

[BleedWell]

If we drop to 4th is it likely whoever we pick at 4th makes the NHL next year?

Kakko is probably the only one who plays the whole season in the NHL next year.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

That wide range of opinions is why you should just take your guy because you don't know who happens to be high on whom.

Not if your team has a huge range of guys they're high on. A lot of teams dont actually rank players they just place them in tiers together. If the Avs have 10 guys all in that 3rd tier from 10-20 it could make a lot of sense to move down, still get a guy you really like, and also get another high pick which could very well get you a 2nd guy from that same tier.



If what you're suggesting was true no team would ever trade down. Fact of the matter is teams trade down almost all the time. When they're confident the guy they want will still be available 5-6 picks later, or if they have a wide range of players in the same tier, it makes sense to move down if you get a good offer.

 

[S E P H]

Kakko is probably the only one who plays the whole season in the NHL next year.

Dr. Dater, is that because Hughes is in Justin Bieber boy body and will get creamed by Ristolainen?

 

[henchman21]

Agree on the idea. But curious who are your top 8/9 as I would have that grouping as more like 10 to 11 players

Hughes, Kakko, Cozens, Turcotte, Byram, Zegras, Dach, Pods, and I like Broberg in that group too though most have him lower. Krebs and Boldy will be in many people's upper tiers, though I think they are heading up that next tier more than joining the others. Knight is the talent level to be in the top tier, but being a goalie, he is in his own world realistically.