Prospect Info: The 2019 Entry NHL Draft Thread - Part II

[henchman21]

* Why is Cozens and Dach more valued than Lavoie?

* Why is Byram valued so much more than, say, Broberg?

Lavoie doesn't have the skating or natural skill level to approach Cozens or Dach... also a winger while Cozens clearly will be a center and Dach will project that way for a good number of teams.

Broberg doesn't have the hands and skill level of Byram. Broberg looks a lot like Chychrun to me... maybe a touch less offensive skill, but that same man-child sort of player. Might have some IQ concerns too. 1st rounder, but might be more of a 15-20 guy than a top 10 guy.

 

[arun]

I’d prefer a forward but Byram sounds like a good one if we were to pick a D and he’d be available

 

[S E P H]

You know I am liking Cozens the more I watch from him. He has limitations offencively and in the IQ department where I think he's getting a ranked a bit too high (or has too much hype at least), but he plays the game the right way for me - if that makes sense. He's always first on pucks, always wants to be difference maker, and has a bulldog personality. If Sens pick gets back into the top 3-6, I am getting more okay with him even if there are a couple of players who have higher potential.

Dach is becoming a bit less impressive for me and one of the reasons why is he normally doesn't have the puck on his stick for long. As we've seen with Rantanen, he's a catalyst force and he tends to have the puck on his stick for half of the game it seems like wanting to be a difference. I am not saying that Dach doesn't have this ability because he does, but he just doesn't do it enough for a guy his size. Another issue I have currently is that he plays well below his 6'4" frame. It could be because he is really underdeveloped physically, but the guy gets smoked in the corners that almost every other play he finds himself on his ass. It's not because he has terrible balance or anything like that, but his frame right now you'd think he is 6'1" than being 6'4". It might not be an issue once he puts more muscle on his bones, but also realise that Cozens is going to get heavier as well. Hell, I've even seen Lavoie play with more chips on his shoulder and not sure he's a lad I like in the top 10.

What Dach does amazingly well is his entire game revolves around the details similar to Ryan O'Reilly. He knows where to go, he can anticipate the play happening, his stick is always in great positioning, and creates space/plays for his teammates. For this reason, I absolutely understand why he's currently being ranked 3rd overall and why he's a pure playmaker by traits alone. He also goes to the dirty areas so don't think he's Stoa either, but besides the first two prospects, these remaining ones all have certain holes in their games'.

TL;DR: Dach isn't nor shouldn't be a lock in that third spot.

 

[CobraAcesS]

You know I am liking Cozens the more I watch from him. He has limitations offencively and in the IQ department where I think he's getting a ranked a bit too high (or has too much hype at least), but he plays the game the right way for me - if that makes sense. He's always first on pucks, always wants to be difference maker, and has a bulldog personality. If Sens pick gets back into the top 3-6, I am getting more okay with him even if there are a couple of players who have higher potential.

Dach is becoming a bit less impressive for me and one of the reasons why is he normally doesn't have the puck on his stick for long. As we've seen with Rantanen, he's a catalyst force and he tends to have the puck on his stick for half of the game it seems like wanting to be a difference. I am not saying that Dach doesn't have this ability because he does, but he just doesn't do it enough for a guy his size. Another issue I have currently is that he plays well below his 6'4" frame. It could be because he is really underdeveloped physically, but the guy gets smoked in the corners that almost every other play he finds himself on his ass. It's not because he has terrible balance or anything like that, but his frame right now you'd think he is 6'1" than being 6'4". It might not be an issue once he puts more muscle on his bones, but also realise that Cozens is going to get heavier as well. Hell, I've even seen Lavoie play with more chips on his shoulder and not sure he's a lad I like in the top 10.

What Dach does amazingly well is his entire game revolves around the details similar to Ryan O'Reilly. He knows where to go, he can anticipate the play happening, his stick is always in great positioning, and creates space/plays for his teammates. For this reason, I absolutely understand why he's currently being ranked 3rd overall and why he's a pure playmaker by traits alone. He also goes to the dirty areas so don't think he's Stoa either, but besides the first two prospects, these remaining ones all have certain holes in their games'.

TL;DR: Dach isn't nor shouldn't be a lock in that third spot.

Can't some of the things you said about Dach be compared to Mikko in his draft year? Some of it even described Mikko in his first NHL season. How do you get enough information to know if that is mental, physical, or whatever combination?

To add to that, Mikko had a much better reputation as a two-way player at the draft than he showed in his first two years (in the NHL). Things seem to be balancing out now, but last year he absolutely neglected that side of the ice. That is just something that stands out using the comparison as well.

 

[Foppa Frossa]

I'm all for picking up more defensemen and not having to rely on the waiver-wire to pick up our bottom pair. Of course if that leaves us thin on offense we may have the same problem there

 

[S E P H]

Can't some of the things you said about Dach be compared to Mikko in his draft year? Some of it even described Mikko in his first NHL season. How do you get enough information to know if that is mental, physical, or whatever combination?

It absolutely can, but there are some things I've liked from Mikko during his draft compared to Dach. That isn't a knock on Dach personally, but more in terms of this draft class clearly isn't on the level of 2015. I am just writing my report from what I've seen from him since the start of the season all the way to today. I might change my opinion five times from today until the draft in June when we all get to watch more games. Remember there is going to be prospects right now projected in the top 10 which will fall and there are some prospects considered top 90 which will rise into the top 20.

Enough information is to keep watching them and sometimes trust your instinct sort of, remember that drafting is far from a science and why majority of scouts are ones who've played the game at a relatively high level knowing what to look out for - both in regards to good and negative things about players. With Dach, I am leaning more towards being physically underdeveloped than a lack of IQ or talent. My mission in that post is that some of the players behind Dach should be quite close to him such as Turcotte, Podkolzin, and Cozens.

 

[henchman21]

I honestly think Cozens will be a better NHL player than Dach overall. I think Dach has a higher offensive ceiling, but I think it will happen at wing. Which Cozens reminds me a ton of a young Mark Scheifele... a lot of projection is needed and I don't think he goes top 5... but I think he will be a top 5 player in any re-draft.

I find this draft to be quicker tiered than past drafts (basically goes Hughes.... Kakko................ 3-8.............................9-40), and I think quality high-end defensemen are lacking (Byram and York are the top 2 and I don't think either are sure things).

 

[CobraAcesS]

I honestly think Cozens will be a better NHL player than Dach overall. I think Dach has a higher offensive ceiling, but I think it will happen at wing. Which Cozens reminds me a ton of a young Mark Scheifele... a lot of projection is needed and I don't think he goes top 5... but I think he will be a top 5 player in any re-draft.

I find this draft to be quicker tiered than past drafts (basically goes Hughes.... Kakko................ 3-8.............................9-40), and I think quality high-end defensemen are lacking (Byram and York are the top 2 and I don't think either are sure things).

Kind of an interesting observation this early. I'll be really curious to see how closely you nail that prediction.

 

[John Mandalorian]

You know I am liking Cozens the more I watch from him. He has limitations offencively and in the IQ department where I think he's getting a ranked a bit too high (or has too much hype at least), but he plays the game the right way for me - if that makes sense. He's always first on pucks, always wants to be difference maker, and has a bulldog personality. If Sens pick gets back into the top 3-6, I am getting more okay with him even if there are a couple of players who have higher potential.

Dach is becoming a bit less impressive for me and one of the reasons why is he normally doesn't have the puck on his stick for long. As we've seen with Rantanen, he's a catalyst force and he tends to have the puck on his stick for half of the game it seems like wanting to be a difference. I am not saying that Dach doesn't have this ability because he does, but he just doesn't do it enough for a guy his size. Another issue I have currently is that he plays well below his 6'4" frame. It could be because he is really underdeveloped physically, but the guy gets smoked in the corners that almost every other play he finds himself on his ass. It's not because he has terrible balance or anything like that, but his frame right now you'd think he is 6'1" than being 6'4". It might not be an issue once he puts more muscle on his bones, but also realise that Cozens is going to get heavier as well. Hell, I've even seen Lavoie play with more chips on his shoulder and not sure he's a lad I like in the top 10.

What Dach does amazingly well is his entire game revolves around the details similar to Ryan O'Reilly. He knows where to go, he can anticipate the play happening, his stick is always in great positioning, and creates space/plays for his teammates. For this reason, I absolutely understand why he's currently being ranked 3rd overall and why he's a pure playmaker by traits alone. He also goes to the dirty areas so don't think he's Stoa either, but besides the first two prospects, these remaining ones all have certain holes in their games'.

TL;DR: Dach isn't nor shouldn't be a lock in that third spot.

My initial impression was that Cozens playing style matches Dachs body type and vice versa. Yes, I also thought about Rantanen when watching Dach but mainly because it seems it’s more him to be a playmaker and he also seems to want to set up guys from where the RW normally plays. Conversely, Cozens seems comfortable looking to score in the crowded areas around the net.

 

[S E P H]

My initial impression was that Cozens playing style matches Cozens body type and vice versa. Yes, I also thought about Rantanen when watching Dach but mainly because it seems it’s more him to be a playmaker and he also seems to want to set up guys from where the RW normally plays. Conversely, Cozens seems comfortable looking to score in the crowded areas around the net.

The issue I have with Cozens is that he relies way too much on his skating ability to make offencive for himself. Something which could potentially lower his potency once he plays in a limited league filled with best of the best players who all are good skaters. However, he's showing me better uses of his athletic ability and expanding more as a player.

Dach does go to the tough areas, but as I said in that post, he's getting manhandled two-fifth of the time. I also think there is some need to get comfortable in the frame he's growing into. People had the same problems concerning Noel last year, but I was believer of him and he has blossomed into a fantastic grab for the Panthers.

 

[Freaky Styley]

So, if the Sens are in the draft lottery sweepstakes at the end of the year, does Joe get the invite to the draft lottery TV show and do they use an Avs logo and not a Sens one? Would be funny to have a playoff team GM on the draft lottery show.

 

[Pokecheque]

So, if the Sens are in the draft lottery sweepstakes at the end of the year, does Joe get the invite to the draft lottery TV show and do they use an Avs logo and not a Sens one? Would be funny to have a playoff team GM on the draft lottery show.

Yes. That's pretty much what happened with the Bruins when the Leafs traded their first in the Kessel deal that ended up being Seguin.

 

[John Mandalorian]

The issue I have with Cozens is that he relies way too much on his skating ability to make offencive for himself. Something which could potentially lower his potency once he plays in a limited league filled with best of the best players who all are good skaters. However, he's showing me better uses of his athletic ability and expanding more as a player.

Dach does go to the tough areas, but as I said in that post, he's getting manhandled two-fifth of the time. I also think there is some need to get comfortable in the frame he's growing into. People had the same problems concerning Noel last year, but I was believer of him and he has blossomed into a fantastic grab for the Panthers.

I liked what you said about Cozens earlier. I’d say he’s a skilled player who likes to attack and that he’s instinctive although without being very creative.

 

[cgf]

I haven't seen Dach, but his issues sound like the issues of a kid who just hasn't grown into his body or had his skating cleaned up. Would 20 pounds of man strength -- especially in his legs -- and a cleaner stride, resolve the questions you two have about him? Again I have no clue atm, not having seen a full game of his yet; just trying to get a feel for if he's more Samson or Drae.

 

[henchman21]

I feel like man strength mainly helps balance and board work sort of skating, not explosiveness or edgework. I personally don't see a high enough level of skating in Dach for him to be a high end center... a team may try him there, but I don't think he will live up to his offensive potential until he moves to wing. I know some scouts that think I'm crazy on Dach's skating level and they think his skating will be plenty of good. IMO Dach is going to be a top 5-7 pick for sure... if he goes #3, it will be because that team believes he will be a center long-term. If he slides to 5-6-7 it will be because teams don't think he will be a center long term, but you can't pass up his level of talent at that point.

 

[cgf]

I feel like man strength mainly helps balance and board work sort of skating, not explosiveness or edgework. I personally don't see a high enough level of skating in Dach for him to be a high end center... a team may try him there, but I don't think he will live up to his offensive potential until he moves to wing. I know some scouts that think I'm crazy on Dach's skating level and they think his skating will be plenty of good. IMO Dach is going to be a top 5-7 pick for sure... if he goes #3, it will be because that team believes he will be a center long-term. If he slides to 5-6-7 it will be because teams don't think he will be a center long term, but you can't pass up his level of talent at that point.

That would at least address SEPH's concerns with him getting manhandled in the dirty areas :-/ How does his skating compare to the big Cs (Leon in particular) that were atop the 2014 draft -- when they were coming out?

Cause I still find that class so interesting to go back to. I was hard in the tank for Drae because I thought his creativity & offensive guile where of a higher level than either of the Sams, but I remember a lot of people expressing concerns about his skating...both his explosiveness and his stability...as they were with Samson.

In hindsight were people just under-estimating what reasonable progression to Drae's stride & body would do, or did he make exceptional progress to overcome something that should've prevented him from reaching these heights at center? Conversely, why didn't Samson's skating make enough progress to let him reach the potential he displayed?


That's a draft that I'd love to listen to war stories about over some beers if I could corral a handful of scouts from the top 5 teams that year.

 

[avsfan09]

I feel like man strength mainly helps balance and board work sort of skating, not explosiveness or edgework. I personally don't see a high enough level of skating in Dach for him to be a high end center... a team may try him there, but I don't think he will live up to his offensive potential until he moves to wing. I know some scouts that think I'm crazy on Dach's skating level and they think his skating will be plenty of good. IMO Dach is going to be a top 5-7 pick for sure... if he goes #3, it will be because that team believes he will be a center long-term. If he slides to 5-6-7 it will be because teams don't think he will be a center long term, but you can't pass up his level of talent at that point.

Do you think a guy like Getzlaf is a great skater? Obviously not saying Dach will be Getzlaf but that would be my style comparison.

 

[AvsWraith]

Anyone take Kakko #1, if the draft happened today and you had the pick?

 

[henchman21]

That would at least address SEPH's concerns with him getting manhandled in the dirty areas :-/ How does his skating compare to the big Cs (Leon in particular) that were atop the 2014 draft -- when they were coming out?

Cause I still find that class so interesting to go back to. I was hard in the tank for Drae because I thought his creativity & offensive guile where of a higher level than either of the Sams, but I remember a lot of people expressing concerns about his skating...both his explosiveness and his stability...as they were with Samson.

In hindsight were people just under-estimating what reasonable progression to Drae's stride & body would do, or did he make exceptional progress to overcome something that should've prevented him from reaching these heights at center? Conversely, why didn't Samson's skating make enough progress to let him reach the potential he displayed?


That's a draft that I'd love to listen to war stories about over some beers if I could corral a handful of scouts from the top 5 teams that year.

Similar... but I don't think Drai is best suited to being a center and at his most productive. Bennett's biggest issue to me is his game doesn't translate with his frame size. If he was a couple inches bigger and 20 pounds heavier, he could play that nasty sort of game and be highly productive. At average size, there isn't enough skill in his game to overcome.

Do you think a guy like Getzlaf is a great skater? Obviously not saying Dach will be Getzlaf but that would be my style comparison.

I think Getzlaf is a pretty lazy comparison... big WHL center that can play both sides of the puck = future Getzlaf. I see more shades of Mark Stone than I do Getzlaf, maybe even some Wheeler. I don't think Getzlaf is a great skater, but his IQ is threw the roof. That allows him a bit more leeway when combined with his size. I think Getz had more physical talent too... there has always been a very underrated skill set to his game.

FTR on Dach, I think whoever drafts him will push hard for him to develop as a center... I just don't think it will work and by 21-22 he will be a full time wing.

Anyone take Kakko #1, if the draft happened today and you had the pick?

Absolutely not... Hughes is #1 and it really isn't close.

 

[cgf]

Similar... but I don't think Drai is best suited to being a center and at his most productive. Bennett's biggest issue to me is his game doesn't translate with his frame size. If he was a couple inches bigger and 20 pounds heavier, he could play that nasty sort of game and be highly productive. At average size, there isn't enough skill in his game to overcome.



I think Getzlaf is a pretty lazy comparison... big WHL center that can play both sides of the puck = future Getzlaf. I see more shades of Mark Stone than I do Getzlaf, maybe even some Wheeler. I don't think Getzlaf is a great skater, but his IQ is threw the roof. That allows him a bit more leeway when combined with his size. I think Getz had more physical talent too... there has always been a very underrated skill set to his game.

FTR on Dach, I think whoever drafts him will push hard for him to develop as a center... I just don't think it will work and by 21-22 he will be a full time wing.



Absolutely not... Hughes is #1 and it really isn't close.

Samson = Sam Reinhart, not Bennett SMH. Come on Henchy, I thought you were supposed to be an expert

As for Drae; he may be more productive on McD’s wing than when centering his own line, but he’s still been a very productive & successful center; whereas Reinhart has only been able to find success on the wing. What separates the two of them there is the question I still don’t know the answer to from that 2015 draft that I still wonder about. I was hard in the Drae camp but I liked Reinhart a lot to...and still do as a winger.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Yeah it's:

Hughes


Kakko



Everyone else.



It's kind of interesting right now. IMO there's no clear player worthy of the 3rd overall pick that's emerged from the pack yet. Cozens, Dach, Podkolzin, Byram, etc. All seem like worthy Top 10 players but none jump out as worthy #3 pick types.


Still a lot of hockey to be played for these guys though. IMO Newhook is starting to creep back into that conversation as the season goes on. His PPG in the BCHL is trending up towards that 2.0 mark and if he can get to that level I think he enters the Top 10 discussion as well.

 

[John Mandalorian]

I have a question regarding Jack Hughes. His most obvious player comp is Patrick Kane. Does Jack Hughes get moved to wing?

 

[cgf]

I’m sure it’s cause he’s the only one I’ve seen multiple full games of, but god damn would Podkolzin be exciting next to Jost and a Zibby caliber 1b C. The kid just consistently makes magic happen like MacK n Mikko do, and we need a dynamic guy like that on the 2nd line.

 

[henchman21]

You simply don't want my opinion on Reinhart

To me there is a difference between being a passable center and a center you win with... Drai might be able to be a center, but I don't think he is a guy you find the best use out of there.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I have a question regarding Jack Hughes. His most obvious player comp is Patrick Kane. Does Jack Hughes get moved to wing?

Nah.