Prospect Info: The 2019 Entry NHL Draft Thread - Part II

[AvsFan29]

Probably as likely as us drafting a goalie that becomes a starter.

Much more likely to pick an NHL player in the mid teens, than it is to draft a starting goalie.

Without even doing any research, I can say there is 10 players ever year picked in the teens.

If half of them work out, that would mean 5 players.

There is not an equal chance that 5 starting goalies are selected every year.

 

[Ivan13]

Drafting a skater isn't a safe bet either. players taken in teens usually take a couple years to make the NHL and even then they don't become a difference maker for a year or two on top of that. Also, I remember an analysis that 50% of 1st rounders outside of the top 10 never even break the 100 game mark in their careers.

• 2010 draft - starting with McIlrath at 10, there were 12 players taken in the first round that either didn't stick in the NHL at all or were 3rd pairing D or 4th liners at best.
• 2011 - 13 non NHL or low-quality players
• 2012 - 9
• 2013 - 11

 

[AvsFan29]

Drafting a skater isn't a safe bet either. players taken in teens usually take a couple years to make the NHL and even then they don't become a difference maker for a year or two on top of that. Also, I remember an analysis that 50% of 1st rounders outside of the top 10 never even break the 100 game mark in their careers.

• 2010 draft - starting with McIlrath at 10, there were 12 players taken in the first round that either didn't stick in the NHL at all or were 3rd pairing D or 4th liners at best.
• 2011 - 13 non NHL or low-quality players
• 2012 - 9
• 2013 - 11

It's a safer bet than going after a goalie

 

[Ivan13]

It's a safer bet than going after a goalie

Are we talking about any goalie or Spencer Knight? As it's been said that kid is Vasilevsky or price level of talent.

 

[Iceberg]

Maybe it is being put over the top a little, but it will make it difficult to have quality depth, and we may even have to chose between some good players due to salary. Obviously the idea is to get the core in place, and keep the window open with ELCs for depth.

I was looking at it the other day, and there may come a time where we have like 11M or so to pay the entire bottom six. Especially once our defense matures, and we're paying more like 30M for our top six D instead of 21M like now.

30M top line, 30M on defense, about 7 to 9M on goaltending. Our second line could cost us 20M by that time too if we draft someone like Hughes or Kakko. So your sitting at 90M hoping the cap gets up to 90 to 95 in 4 years. Your money to pay the bottom six ****ing evaporates lol.

20M on our second line would probably mean the OTT pick became an elite fwd, 30M on D probably means Makar became an elite 1D by the age 23. If both those things were to happen our window would be open for a long time, whether we have great depth or not.

Adding Spencer Knight on an ELC could make us a dinasty.

 

[AvsFan29]

Are we talking about any goalie or Spencer Knight? As it's been said that kid is Vasilevsky or price level of talent.

I was just talking about goalies in general. If we get a shot at Knight, then it might be worth it. If he falls to wherever our pick is (17-31 hopefully), it could be the right call.

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

What do you think of Isaiah Saville?

I think he's a solid prospect. I believe he pushes, and makes, next year's USA WJC team. He's a fun goalie to watch and I think being a late birthday has helped his development. He's quick with a good level of control which helps to mitigate his average to slightly below average frame. Recent comparable would be David Tendeck in terms of play style or Dylan Ferguson.

 

[henchman21]

Drafting a skater isn't a safe bet either. players taken in teens usually take a couple years to make the NHL and even then they don't become a difference maker for a year or two on top of that. Also, I remember an analysis that 50% of 1st rounders outside of the top 10 never even break the 100 game mark in their careers.

• 2010 draft - starting with McIlrath at 10, there were 12 players taken in the first round that either didn't stick in the NHL at all or were 3rd pairing D or 4th liners at best.
• 2011 - 13 non NHL or low-quality players
• 2012 - 9
• 2013 - 11

This is a more elegant way of putting out there what I was trying to say earlier. Goalies bust around the same rate as skaters, but theirs is just more visible because there are less spots and thus less chances.

 

[agentblack]

I was just talking about goalies in general. If we get a shot at Knight, then it might be worth it. If he falls to wherever our pick is (17-31 hopefully), it could be the right call.

I cosign this. Another skater would be nice but if Knight is there to be picked with our G situation, be nice to have a prospect like that.

 

[AvsFan29]

I cosign this. Another skater would be nice but if Knight is there to be picked with our G situation, be nice to have a prospect like that.

He would probably end up as the starter on the eagles if varly or grubauer are traded. Could have a quick development track in that scenario.

 

[Trinstin]

I just pray we dont draft a goalie in the first. Sure, it could end up an amazing pick but its much riskier than picking a forward and that forward could easily become good enough to trade for a goalie+2nd or something similar.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Except that its not.

You're right. Drafting a forward would more likely end up in being an NHL player.

 

[Papa Francouz]

Turcotte is back to looking killer for the NTDP again. Really hope his injury drops him a few spots so we can snag him with our own first, if we pick Kakko, Pod, or Byram with the Sens pick.

 

[cgf]

20M on our second line would probably mean the OTT pick became an elite fwd, 30M on D probably means Makar became an elite 1D by the age 23. If both those things were to happen our window would be open for a long time, whether we have great depth or not.

Adding Spencer Knight on an ELC could make us a dinasty.

Let’s use some guess #s to see what the situation could look like: EJ 6M, Cole 4.25M, Zads 3.75M, Girard 5M+, Barrie 7-8M, and Makar would just needs to become a borderline top 4 guy to take the total blueline expenditure over 30M...never mind if he became even a low level #1, even if Cole was replaced by an ELC when it came time to re-sign Cale.

 

[Iceberg]

Let’s use some guest ones to see what the numbers could look like: EJ 6M, Cole 4.25M, Zads 3.75M, Girard 5.5M, Barrie 7M, and Makar would just needs to become a borderline top 4 guy to take the total blueline expenditure over 30M...never mind if he became even a low level #1.

Barrie won't be here or Cole.

 

[cgf]

Barrie won't be here or Cole.

You’re right that Cole probably won’t be here, but the 3M between him & an ELC isn’t dropping that total under 30M.

And I know that every single last poster on this board wants Sakic to trade EJ before he becomes an albatross, but I’m skeptical that Joe will actually display that much foresight. Odds are we just buy him out before the expansion draft & have that buyout on our books.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I think he's a solid prospect. I believe he pushes, and makes, next year's USA WJC team. He's a fun goalie to watch and I think being a late birthday has helped his development. He's quick with a good level of control which helps to mitigate his average to slightly below average frame. Recent comparable would be David Tendeck in terms of play style or Dylan Ferguson.

Thx GTG. What round do you think he will be taken? We have quite a few big goalies now in our system so I wouldn't mind if they took a flyer on a smaller one this time around. He has great numbers but on a very good team.

Wrt Werner...Do you have a chance to watch him sometimes? He has very good numbers this year. Has he turned the corner? I suspect he will be coming over to the Eagles next season. NHL potential?

 

[Iceberg]

You’re right that Cole probably won’t be here, but the 3M between him & an ELC isn’t dropping that total under 30M.

And I know that every single last poster on this board wants Sakic to trade EJ before he becomes an albatross, but I’m skeptical that Joe will actually display that much foresight. Odds are we just buy him out before the expansion draft & have that buyout on our books.

By the time Makar needs a new contract, EJ will have only one more year on his current deal.

But let's see, assuming Makar becomes a Norris D:

Makar - 11M
EJ - 6M
Girard - 5M
Zadorov - 3.75M
--------------

That would still leave us with around 4M for 2 bottom pairing guys... not bad.

 

[Avsboy]

Even if (meet your) Makar becomes a Norris D it would only be well into his non-ELC contract. $11 million only at 28. That's a decade from now.

 

[UncleRisto]

Samuli Vainionpää hit fellow U20 champion Kaapo Kakko in the boards on the numbers and got ejected. Game was 3-0 at that point. TPS tied the game on the ensuing powerplay, with two of the goals by Kakko.

 

[Iceberg]

Samuli Vainionpää hit fellow U20 champion Kaapo Kakko in the boards on the numbers and got ejected. Game was 3-0 at that point. TPS tied the game on the ensuing powerplay, with two of the goals by Kakko.

Is Kakko still playing center?

 

[henchman21]

Turcotte is back to looking killer for the NTDP again. Really hope his injury drops him a few spots so we can snag him with our own first, if we pick Kakko, Pod, or Byram with the Sens pick.

If he stays healthy to finish the season, he will climb back to where he should go. A first half of the season with some injury issues wouldn't be a big deal to scouts, a full year causes some pause. Depending on the draft quality, that may or may not drop a player though.

 

[UncleRisto]

Is Kakko still playing center?

Yes.

 

[cgf]

If he stays healthy to finish the season, he will climb back to where he should go. A first half of the season with some injury issues wouldn't be a big deal to scouts, a full year causes some pause. Depending on the draft quality, that may or may not drop a player though.

Any concern about Turcotte's style of play lending itself to injury? Or did he just get unlucky?

 

[Papa Francouz]

If he stays healthy to finish the season, he will climb back to where he should go. A first half of the season with some injury issues wouldn't be a big deal to scouts, a full year causes some pause. Depending on the draft quality, that may or may not drop a player though.

I hope for his sake that he gets taken where he should. He’s a damn fine player, and dropping due to injuries in your draft year sounds like a terrible thing to go through for a teenager.