Prospect Info: The 2019 Entry NHL Draft Thread - Part II

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Why would Podkolzin staying in Russia for two years make him drop when Dach & Cozens are both unlikely to be impact players before their draft+3 seasons either? Does that draft+2 season where they’re just getting their feet wet & Podkolzin is still polishing his game in the KHL, really make much of a difference?

The kid wants to come to the NHL when he’s ready and he won’t take any longer to become a difference maker than all of the other non-Hughes-or-Kakko prospects

Absolutely without question it does. If a team has a chance to choose between two players where one is North Anerican born and can join the team at any point from the moment hes drafted, and the other one is fully committed to another league for his next 3 years with no intentions of joining the NHL before that, NHL teams are going to pick the North American player every time until the gap on skill becomes large enough to justify taking the European.



Now, this isnt something I agree with at all. I think you should take BPA no matter what the situation. But I'd say 75% of teams in the NHL dont view it this way. Fortunately I think the Avs are starting to fall in that 25% group.

 

[cgf]

Absolutely without question it does. If a team has a chance to choose between two players where one is North Anerican born and can join the team at any point from the moment hes drafted, and the other one is fully committed to another league for his next 3 years with no intentions of joining the NHL before that, NHL teams are going to pick the North American player every time until the gap on skill becomes large enough to justify taking the European.



Now, this isnt something I agree with at all. I think you should take BPA no matter what the situation. But I'd say 75% of teams in the NHL dont view it this way. Fortunately I think the Avs are starting to fall in that 25% group.

It’s 2 more years, not 3...of which Cozens & Dach are likely to spend 1 playing CHL hockey. So odds are, we’re just talking about 1 extra season where they’d be developing under our direct supervision & Pod wouldn’t be.

I can understand that being a tiebreaker if you have Podkolzin & Cozens neck & neck, but not for guys in the next tier like Zegras. And honestly, that 1 year doesn’t mean as much to me as how much more I like Podkolzin than Dach, even if they are in the same tier.

 

[BKarchitect]

For me...

Tier 1
Hughes-Kakko

Tier 2
Turcotte-Cozens-Dach-Podkolzin

Tier 3
Zegras-Byram-Boldy, etc

We may very well get one from tier 1/2 and one from tier 3.

 

[avsfan09]

It’s 2 more years, not 3...of which Cozens & Dach are likely to spend 1 playing CHL hockey. So odds are, we’re just talking about 1 extra season where they’d be developing under our direct supervision & Pod wouldn’t be.

I can understand that being a tiebreaker if you have Podkolzin & Cozens neck & neck, but not for guys in the next tier like Zegras. And honestly, that 1 year doesn’t mean as much to me as how much more I like Podkolzin than Dach, even if they are in the same tier.

Like it or not the Russian factor still influences teams. I hope if Pod was the BPA the Avs would take him but I see Cozens being ready first. Dach I could see Pod being a better prospect but Cozens is the C NHL teams covet. Great skater, great compete, size and IQ. I also think him being a winger drops him. Teams will take shots on the NA centers first Imo.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Why would Podkolzin staying in Russia for two years make him drop when Dach & Cozens are both unlikely to be impact players before their draft+3 seasons either? Does that draft+2 season where they’re just getting their feet wet & Podkolzin is still polishing his game in the KHL, really make much of a difference?

The kid wants to come to the NHL when he’s ready and he won’t take any longer to become a difference maker than all of the other non-Hughes-or-Kakko prospects

Just like Makar taking two years after he was drafted to show up, eh?

 

[cgf]

Just like Makar taking two years after he was drafted to show up, eh?

Am I missing something? Makar may play some games this year, but he won’t show up for realsies until his draft+3

 

[tigervixxxen]

Am I missing something? Makar may play some games this year, but he won’t show up for realsies until his draft+3

My point is Russian commitments are a lot like NCAA commitments. Uncertain timelines, promises made to sign, flight risk. A potential 4th overall Podkolzin potentially staying 2 years in Russia isn't much different than 4th overall Makar staying in school 2 years.

 

[henchman21]

The risk isn't just about getting over here (all top Russians except Gusev have eventually come over), it is about the risk on the 2nd contract too. Just look at Nuke down south... came over and played okay, but demanded stronger contract than his play deserved. Took his puck and went back to Russia for a couple years and still required a strong deal when coming back... turns out he just isn't a great hockey player either. I'm not saying Pods is going to go down the same path as Nuke, but that risk will be there and teams will naturally treat them differently than a NCAA commit because of that.

Along with that, the Avs tried pretty damn hard to pull Makar after 1 season... they are not the epitome of organizational patience when it comes to top picks. If they rank Pods in the same tier as Dach or Cozens, I'd see the Avs selecting Dach or Cozens over Pods.

 

[EdAVSfan]

My point is Russian commitments are a lot like NCAA commitments. Uncertain timelines, promises made to sign, flight risk. A potential 4th overall Podkolzin potentially staying 2 years in Russia isn't much different than 4th overall Makar staying in school 2 years.

I think there is.

A Makar staying in school in NA is far more limiting for him financially. He essentially has to ride it out to UFA to make money. He’s also far less likely to just completely leave NA to go and play in Russia.

A Podkolzin staying in Russia for 2 years carries far more risk. He could get a lucrative offer to stay. He could enjoy his time and not want to uproot to NA. Or, he may not like his handling at the NHL level and go back.

Unless I’m arguing something you’re not trying to say here...

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Ya the Podkolzin and Makar situations would not be the same at all. Weird comparison to make.

 

[Balthazar]

Now, this isnt something I agree with at all. I think you should take BPA no matter what the situation. But I'd say 75% of teams in the NHL dont view it this way. Fortunately I think the Avs are starting to fall in that 25% group.

"BPA" after (usually) the 3OA is a myth. There's no such thing, there's a bunch of players in the same range and you take a ticket for one. I don't recall seeing a 4OA or a 5OA who was head and shoulders above the next guy so he can be called "best player available" on draft day.

You don't pick the Russian guy unless he's a tier above the non-Russian guy.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

"BPA" after (usually) the 3OA is a myth. There's no such thing, there's a bunch of players in the same range and you take a ticket for one. I don't recall seeing a 4OA or a 5OA who was head and shoulders above the next guy so he can be called "best player available" on draft day.

You don't pick the Russian guy unless he's a tier above the non-Russian guy.

That isn't true at all. There's no consensus BPA but every single team in the league will produce there own list and will select the BPA from the list they compiled

 

[Balthazar]

That isn't true at all. There's no consensus BPA but every single team in the league will produce there own list and will select the BPA from the list they compiled

There's no big gap between #4 and #5 on their list either. They have to pick one (and will call him "their guy") but it could easily be the next guy in line.

Not picking the Russian if there's a guy in the same tier who has about the same chances to become just as good is minimizing risk and it's smart. It's not just waiting for the first 2-3 years, it can be a pain in the ass later too. Nuke was a good example, look at the Wild with Kaprizov who was drafted in 2015 and won't come over until 20-21. That's a long ass wait and who knows what will happen then.

 

[cgf]

My point is Russian commitments are a lot like NCAA commitments. Uncertain timelines, promises made to sign, flight risk. A potential 4th overall Podkolzin potentially staying 2 years in Russia isn't much different than 4th overall Makar staying in school 2 years.

My b, misread your tone & thought you were arguing with me there.

The KHL v NCAA isn't a 1 to 1 analogy...some risks are higher with KHLers, but you get their rights for longer to...but there's certainly some similar concerns with both paths. Which is part of why I feel like the pertinent question is "when will the prospects we are debating, be ready to be difference makers at the NHL level?", not where they'll get ready. If the answer to that question is their draft+3 season, for everyone but Hughes & Kakko, then talent & drive matter a hell of a lot more to me than the path those kids will take to get there.

 

[cgf]

There's no big gap between #4 and #5 on their list either. They have to pick one (and will call him "their guy") but it could easily be the next guy in line.

Not picking the Russian if there's a guy in the same tier who has about the same chances to become just as good is minimizing risk and it's smart. It's not just waiting for the first 2-3 years, it can be a pain in the ass later too. Nuke was a good example, look at the Wild with Kaprizov who was drafted in 2015 and won't come over until 20-21. That's a long ass wait and who knows what will happen then.

The problem with Nuke was that he just wasn't that good. If he had been, then having to pay him wouldn't be a problem.

And Kaprizov is a special case more similar to Gusev than any of the other highly drafted russians in recent years. He was a late pick who didn't start to get any NA-hype until after being drafted; who Minny did a bad job of making feel engaged & like an important part of their plans. So it's not entirely shocking that they failed to bring him into the fold before he'd be able to come over to sign a shortened ELC.

What they did would be more akin to if we forgot all about Bowers until his senior year and then called him up out of the blue, for the first time since trading for him, to ask when he'd be signing his ELC...with no discussion of roles or what we had planned for him even then, much less during the entire time he was developing.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

There's no big gap between #4 and #5 on their list either. They have to pick one (and will call him "their guy") but it could easily be the next guy in line.

Not picking the Russian if there's a guy in the same tier who has about the same chances to become just as good is minimizing risk and it's smart. It's not just waiting for the first 2-3 years, it can be a pain in the ass later too. Nuke was a good example, look at the Wild with Kaprizov who was drafted in 2015 and won't come over until 20-21. That's a long ass wait and who knows what will happen then.

My big point is teams will have a guy like Podkolzin further down the list simply because of the risk of him staying in the KHL for 2+ years.


I agree theres no such thing as a consensus BPA and its frustrating to see posters here talking about some of that stuff.

But individual teams will have there own lists and the hope is that they simply pick the highest player on that list each time rather than letting positional needs play a factor.

 

[Balthazar]

The problem with Nuke was that he just wasn't that good. If he had been, then having to pay him wouldn't be a problem.

And Kaprizov is a special case more similar to Gusev than any of the other highly drafted russians in recent years. He was a late pick who didn't start to get any NA-hype until after being drafted; who Minny did a bad job of making feel engaged & like an important part of their plans. So it's not entirely shocking that they failed to bring him into the fold before he'd be able to come over to sign a shortened ELC.

What they did would be more akin to if we forgot all about Bowers until his senior year and then called him up out of the blue, for the first time since trading for him, to ask when he'd be signing his ELC...with no discussion of roles or what we had planned for him even then, much less during the entire time he was developing.

None of these things would have happened if the player wasn't Russian. Saying it's the team's fault or the player isn't good isn't changing this. When you draft a Russian player there's an extra element of fear and the gap in talent with the next guy in line must make up for it. That is all.

 

[cgf]

None of these things would have happened if the player wasn't Russian. Saying it's the team's fault or the player isn't good isn't changing this. When you draft a Russian player there's an extra element of fear and the gap in talent with the next guy in line must make up for it. That is all.

But there are teams who know how to get their russian prospects to come over; for whom that fear is unfounded and so should be nothing more than absolute tie breaker...and there's never two prospects who are exactly as good as one another; even if they're in the same tier you'll like one more than the other...and there teams who don't know how to deal with russians. Podkolzin is neck & neck with Cozens to be that guy for the 2nd tier in this draft for me.

So if we ended up picking 4th and Cozens went 3rd, I would hope they wouldn't hesitate to take him there even if there are other guys "in the same tier as him" available...well actually I'd hope that they'd explore using that pick to trade for a young star in that Mikko - Mack - Gabe age range if that happened, but assuming that we kept the pick

 

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

The risk isn't just about getting over here (all top Russians except Gusev have eventually come over), it is about the risk on the 2nd contract too. Just look at Nuke down south... came over and played okay, but demanded stronger contract than his play deserved. Took his puck and went back to Russia for a couple years and still required a strong deal when coming back... turns out he just isn't a great hockey player either. I'm not saying Pods is going to go down the same path as Nuke, but that risk will be there and teams will naturally treat them differently than a NCAA commit because of that.

And that other russian head case O'Riellyov

 

[S E P H]

There's no big gap between #4 and #5 on their list either. They have to pick one (and will call him "their guy") but it could easily be the next guy in line.

Not picking the Russian if there's a guy in the same tier who has about the same chances to become just as good is minimizing risk and it's smart. It's not just waiting for the first 2-3 years, it can be a pain in the ass later too. Nuke was a good example, look at the Wild with Kaprizov who was drafted in 2015 and won't come over until 20-21. That's a long ass wait and who knows what will happen then.

I am very sure there is, they don't get into heated arguments over anything. Team's lists are all planned and calculated, it is just that drafting isn't a science so some times you hit and some times you miss. But because the law of entropy abounds, doesn't mean they "half-ass" it, you can make the argument that you need to do more than basic work and be more observant because of the chaos factor (that's why scouts always ask questions about "x" player to teammates, coaches, and agents).

The problem with Nuke was that he just wasn't that good. If he had been, then having to pay him wouldn't be a problem.

At the time Nuke was fairly raw and had huge blinder vision, but you saw the creativity, the catalyst ability, wanting to be a difference, and everything else. Not sure what happened because I don't know how he became this bad of a player, but it seems that rawness never really developed into any sort of talent.

None of these things would have happened if the player wasn't Russian. Saying it's the team's fault or the player isn't good isn't changing this. When you draft a Russian player there's an extra element of fear and the gap in talent with the next guy in line must make up for it. That is all.

If you don't want us to pick a Russian so badly, perhaps change affiliates? The Sens haven't drafted one in like ten years.

 

[Balthazar]

If you don't want us to pick a Russian so badly, perhaps change affiliates? The Sens haven't drafted one in like ten years.

Interesting. Do the Sens have a better record at drafting?

 

[S E P H]

Interesting. Do the Sens have a better record at drafting past the top 10?

They do! It's a win win for you!

 

[cgf]

Interesting. Do the Sens have a better record at drafting?

Without a doubt

 

[Balthazar]

They do! It's a win win for you!

Won't change my favorite team but it does help my argument. Thanks.

 

[Balthazar]

Without a doubt

I know. That was tongue-in-cheek. Dorion is one of the best scout in the NHL.