Speculation: The 2019 Draft Thread - Sabres pick 7th

[Tsyolin]

Wow...have you looked at our projected lineup? How could you possibly...which 7-11 teams do you expect us to be better than? You could argue Ottawa and Detroit but even that is wishful thinking.

I didn't say they were a better roster talent wise, I just think they're a better team. Besides, it's not like saying the team is gonna be mediocre at best is an absolutely off the walls insane prediction.

 

[dotcommunism]

The tough part with some of the super late developers if that it is really unlikely that they are on anyone's radar.

Whether they are kids in lower European leagues or kids that are playing lower level Junior A or Junior B on their path to the NCAA, it can be really hard to say that they are draftable when they are first draft eligible.

That is where having access to draft lists could help with the research as opposed to a generic look via internet research, if that makes sense.

I think if one were trying to find why successful players were being passed over in their first draft/going undrafted, it would be important to consider all of the variables, including obscurity. While it might not be feasible for a team to thoroughly scout every European junior team, it's still possible that one could try to find some sort of predictor of success at higher levels.

That said, I took a look through a few undrafted players and players who went undrafted their first eligible year to see where they played when they were passed over.
Undrafted: Drake Caggiula (OJHL/NCAA), Michal Kempny (Slovak juniors/Czech juniors/Czech Extraliga), Mats Zuccarello (Norwegian juniors/Norway), Torey Krug (USHL/NCAA), Tyler Johnson (OHL), David Desharnais (QMJHL)
Overagers: Tanner Pearson (GOJHL/OHL), David Perron (QJAAAHL), Wayne Simmonds (CJHL), Viktor Arvidsson (SuperElit/SHL)
Kempny and Zuccarello both played internationally, in addition to reaching their respective professional leagues while still draft eligible. Players drafted out of Norway are rare, but not entirely unheard of (Zuccarello did go to play in the SHL, but by then his draft eligibility had expired). Quite a few guys played Junior A, but I'm pretty sure outside of Caggiula the others were in leagues that don't get many, if any, drafted players. The other guys played in leagues that normally get players drafted (including Pearson in his second year of eligibility)

Obviously, though, such a listing is far from representative and skewed towards players who became good NHLers and not just depth/fringe players. That said, while looking over those players there is an obvious, and expected, correlation among many of them - they're undersized.

 

[Jim Bob]

I think if one were trying to find why successful players were being passed over in their first draft/going undrafted, it would be important to consider all of the variables, including obscurity. While it might not be feasible for a team to thoroughly scout every European junior team, it's still possible that one could try to find some sort of predictor of success at higher levels.

That said, I took a look through a few undrafted players and players who went undrafted their first eligible year to see where they played when they were passed over.
Undrafted: Drake Caggiula (OJHL/NCAA), Michal Kempny (Slovak juniors/Czech juniors/Czech Extraliga), Mats Zuccarello (Norwegian juniors/Norway), Torey Krug (USHL/NCAA), Tyler Johnson (OHL), David Desharnais (QMJHL)
Overagers: Tanner Pearson (GOJHL/OHL), David Perron (QJAAAHL), Wayne Simmonds (CJHL), Viktor Arvidsson (SuperElit/SHL)
Kempny and Zuccarello both played internationally, in addition to reaching their respective professional leagues while still draft eligible. Players drafted out of Norway are rare, but not entirely unheard of (Zuccarello did go to play in the SHL, but by then his draft eligibility had expired). Quite a few guys played Junior A, but I'm pretty sure outside of Caggiula the others were in leagues that don't get many, if any, drafted players. The other guys played in leagues that normally get players drafted (including Pearson in his second year of eligibility)

Obviously, though, such a listing is far from representative and skewed towards players who became good NHLers and not just depth/fringe players. That said, while looking over those players there is an obvious, and expected, correlation among many of them - they're undersized.

It is interesting that that market inefficiency hasn't been exploited more by cutting edge teams.

Someone could make a killing if they figured out a way to be a lot better at figuring out what undersized late round kids will work out.

Or, after the 3rd round, only draft undersized guys...

 

[Icicle]

I think if one were trying to find why successful players were being passed over in their first draft/going undrafted, it would be important to consider all of the variables, including obscurity. While it might not be feasible for a team to thoroughly scout every European junior team, it's still possible that one could try to find some sort of predictor of success at higher levels.

That said, I took a look through a few undrafted players and players who went undrafted their first eligible year to see where they played when they were passed over.
Undrafted: Drake Caggiula (OJHL/NCAA), Michal Kempny (Slovak juniors/Czech juniors/Czech Extraliga), Mats Zuccarello (Norwegian juniors/Norway), Torey Krug (USHL/NCAA), Tyler Johnson (OHL), David Desharnais (QMJHL)
Overagers: Tanner Pearson (GOJHL/OHL), David Perron (QJAAAHL), Wayne Simmonds (CJHL), Viktor Arvidsson (SuperElit/SHL)
Kempny and Zuccarello both played internationally, in addition to reaching their respective professional leagues while still draft eligible. Players drafted out of Norway are rare, but not entirely unheard of (Zuccarello did go to play in the SHL, but by then his draft eligibility had expired). Quite a few guys played Junior A, but I'm pretty sure outside of Caggiula the others were in leagues that don't get many, if any, drafted players. The other guys played in leagues that normally get players drafted (including Pearson in his second year of eligibility)

Obviously, though, such a listing is far from representative and skewed towards players who became good NHLers and not just depth/fringe players. That said, while looking over those players there is an obvious, and expected, correlation among many of them - they're undersized.

St Louis is your prime case study of this. 'Undersized' has always killed prospects. Also, a kids rate of growth can severely impact their draft position, etc.

There's even been analyses done where kids born to be older for their age cut-off are statistically significantly correlated to being all-stars. Proposed explanation being that coaches will favor the kids who are more developed for their age range and focus on them, whereas the smaller/younger kid will get left behind throughout their development on average. If you want a pro athlete- you want to plan their month of birth.

 

[Der Jaeger]

St Louis is your prime case study of this. 'Undersized' has always killed prospects. Also, a kids rate of growth can severely impact their draft position, etc.

There's even been analyses done where kids born to be older for their age cut-off are statistically significantly correlated to being all-stars. Proposed explanation being that coaches will favor the kids who are more developed for their age range and focus on them, whereas the smaller/younger kid will get left behind throughout their development on average. If you want a pro athlete- you want to plan their month of birth.

Someone read Outliers.

Except the early birthday example in the book has only been shown accurate in Canada. The difference is way smaller in the NHL as well, as Gladwell himself notes. And it's non-existent for Swedes and now Americans. Swedes have been working on skill development, and not game performance, for a decade. The US American Development Model (ADM) does much the same.

So, really, if you're Canadian and want a pro athlete, plan by birth month.

 

[sabrebuild]

Someone read Outliers.

Except the early birthday example in the book has only been shown accurate in Canada. The difference is way smaller in the NHL as well, as Gladwell himself notes. And it's non-existent for Swedes and now Americans. Swedes have been working on skill development, and not game performance, for a decade. The US American Development Model (ADM) does much the same.

So, really, if you're Canadian and want a pro athlete, plan by birth month.

If I remember correctly, Slovakia also fit the study. At least ten years ago when the book came out.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Dingo44]

Whoo hoo! I'll be watching this kid all season again for $10 a ticket! Best bargain in sports!

 

[1972]

I don’t get why he would go back there, seems rather pointless.

 

[truthbluth]

I don’t get why he would go back there, seems rather pointless.

I agree. Virtually zero chance he plays a D+1 season anywhere other than the NHL, so why preserve NCAA eligibility? If I were him, I'd go the AM route and find a mid tier Euro league. Seems like a once in a lifetime chance.

On the other hand, his brother is at Michigan and it's probably the last time the two of them will live in the same town for about 15 years. With his younger brother Luke playing bantam in Michigan also, I bet their parents have relocated as well. Family is a heck of a motivator for 17 year old kids.

 

[1972]

I agree. Virtually zero chance he plays a D+1 season anywhere other than the NHL, so why preserve NCAA eligibility? If I were him, I'd go the AM route and find a mid tier Euro league. Seems like a once in a lifetime chance.

On the other hand, his brother is at Michigan and it's probably the last time the two of them will live in the same town for about 15 years. With his younger brother Luke playing bantam in Michigan also, I bet their parents have relocated as well. Family is a heck of a motivator for 17 year old kids.

I would go to the Michigan and play with his brother if I were in his shoes.

 

[truthbluth]

I would go to the Michigan and play with his brother if I were in his shoes.

Pretty sure there's a pesky high school diploma pre-requisite. He's a May B-day, so chances are, this is the beginning of his senior year in high school.

 

[RWatson29]

Canada hlinka roster is sooo stacked

 

[RWatson29]

Byram, Robertson, cozens, dach, krebs, lafreniere, newhook, Pelletier, Suzuki, Williams lollll

 

[1972]

Gonna be the best WHL crop maybe ever...

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[darcyRegier]

Was thinking about this earlier, this draft is going to be a huge factor in the Sabres winning a cup in the Eichel/Dahlin era...if not the deciding factor whether they can pull it off.

2019 might be the most important draft for this organization in quite a while.

 

[Jim Bob]

Was thinking about this earlier, this draft is going to be a huge factor in the Sabres winning a cup in the Eichel/Dahlin era...if not the deciding factor whether they can pull it off.

2019 might be the most important draft for this organization in quite a while.

That gets said about so many drafts heading into it.

I think the past the 2018, 2017, and 2015 drafts will be the deciding factor.

 

[1972]

This is important in the sense that this draft can give us some real nice players down the road to compliment our star players. Hopefully we can get a DeBrusk, Connor or even a Konecny type talent or two.

 

[Jim Bob]

Jack Hughes, 2019 NHL Draft prospect, chose USNTDP over Michigan

 

[Jim Bob]

Hughes from Hughes

 

[hizzoner]

Gonna be the best WHL crop maybe ever...

It ought to be draft to remember. Some outstanding prospects.

 

[Dingo44]

It ought to be draft to remember. Some outstanding prospects.

And baring one or two of them sliding into a lottery pick or a trade we'll have three in the first round.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

I am hoping that the Blues and Sharks both finish in the two wild card spots and that they give us firsts in the 16-20 range. Having 3 top 20 draft picks in 2019 would be fantastic. With 3 1sts this year most likely, I want to see BPA for all 3 1sts.

A few questions for the resident draft gurus since I will not pretend that I actually have the ability to watch the top prospects outside the WJC and YouTube.

1- Are there any top goalie prospects this year? 2018 seemed very weak on goalies. Not that I am pining to draft a goalie in the first, I am more curious if there is even a goalie worth taking in the first.

2- the overall depth of this draft class. We know about Hughes, but is there any other franchise defining prospects ? I don't want to finish last and aim for #4 but I wouldn't mind knowing about the other top prospects outside of Hughes in case we win a #2 or #3 lotto pick.

3- any power forward types projected to go round 1. We definitely need to add some size, sandpaper and scoring. If we can get all that in one player even better. There haven't been many power forward prospects that panned out but due to their scarcity there is always a team willing to take a big power forward prospect. If there's one available when we pick that is worth a selection I wouldn't mind seeing one taken.

4- How many first round caliber D prospects are RHS compared to LHS. I know Dahlin prefers the right side but we can definitely use a high end RHS D prospect. Risto has 4 years left on his deal before he can walk in free agency. It's not right around the corner but it isn't exactly ages away. We may need to hit on one of the extra 1sts this year for a potential Risto replacement. Regardless, we need RHS Dmen even if Risto stays. Of course we anticipate Samuelsson to make it as a top 4 RHD but in today's game you can never have enough RHS Dmen.

5- And last but not least, speed. Now that Botts is entering his 3rd draft, I want to see this team rounded out. We have the top 6 centers in place. The top pairing in place. I'd like to see wnat kind of players Botts targets with "luxury" picks. If we end up with all 3 1sts in this years draft I definitely expect to see Botts use a first on a total boom/bust prospect. That is the best time to take such a player, when you have multiple firsts.

With possibly 3 1sts this year I just want BPA all 3 1sts. Hopefully it's used on a goal scoring RWer (to replace Okposo), a 2 way center (to eventually replace RoR) and a big physical dman with some snarl. Of course, if San Jose and St.Louis want to use the next two seasons to uncharacteristically miss the playoffs two years in a row and give us unprotected 2020 1sts that's even better

Pretty much I want all 3 1sts to come in the same draft. I have no idea how 2020 grades out against 2019 but regardless of where the picks are I'd rather just get to use all 3 1sts right away so we can see an impact from the Kane and RoR trades sooner rather then later.

 

[1972]

Looking back, had we picked 2/3/4 who do you think would have been the pick?

2 - Andrei Svechnikov (No brainer)
3 - Quinn Hughes
4 - Quinn Hughes

My sense is pre lottery win that Quinn Hughes or Brady Tkachuk were the Sabres targets had they fallen past 2.