Speculation: The 2019 Draft Thread - Sabres pick 7th

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Genny Screamer

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Jul 11, 2017
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Buffalo, NY
Watching Johnny Gaudreau fly around the ice I think Jack Hughes will transition nicely to the NHL. Johnny Gaudreau is only listed at 5'9" 165lbs. Jack Hughes is listed at 5'10" 157lbs. Yes, Hughes has to put on some weight, but he should be ok. He may play a year in college with his brother at Michigan which would help with his physical development.

I didn't know this, but Johnny Hockey plays with a 55 flex stick. Yes, Johnny Gaudreau Uses a 55 Flex Warrior Stick

A 55 flex stick is a junior stick mostly used by 13-14 year old kids! Hockey Stick Flex Guide – How to Choose Flex
 

Rowley Birkin

Registered User
Oct 31, 2004
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Maybe some of you who follow the draft class incredibly deeply will already know this guy - but someone I'm watching this year is 2019 eligible Keiron Brown.

An undersized but skillful forward - not only is he from the UK which is rare enough for a draft worthy prospect but he's also from my home town. I've been following his progress since reading a piece in our local paper about him back when he was 12/13.

It's hard to really judge some of the numbers in his early teens but to give context his were far better than Brendan Perlini's at the same level/age.

He then moved over to the US to play AAA level for a couple years & didl well by all accounts.

He then signed to the top level UK mens pro league at age 16 - he's so far struggled to make an impact but continued to put up huge numbers when being loaned out to lower league teams.

I think he has a shot at being drafted. Hopefully he can follow in the footsteps of Liam Kirk - Coyotes late rounder last year also from the UK who is now playing in the OHL putting up good numbers.
 

Club

Moderator
Mar 2, 2015
6,208
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Calgary
My Tiers so far.

Tier 1: Hughes

Tier 2: Kakko

Tier 3:
Dach
Turcotte
Podkolzin
Cozens

Tier 4:
Boldy
Zegras
Krebs
Byram
Newhook
I know you wrote this nearly 2 weeks ago, but I'd personally put Turcotte in a "low end" Tier 2 with Kakko
 

1972

"Craigs on it"
Apr 9, 2012
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Podkolzin is going to be so good in the NHL, if he’s NA he’s an absolute lock to go 2nd or 3rd OA.
 

1972

"Craigs on it"
Apr 9, 2012
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I want our Gaudreau, Keller, Marner, or DeBrincat type of player. A super creative high hockey IQ winger with tons of skill. That was suppost to be Nylander but unfortunately he doesn’t have the pace to his game.
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
55,647
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Rochester, NY
Watching Johnny Gaudreau fly around the ice I think Jack Hughes will transition nicely to the NHL. Johnny Gaudreau is only listed at 5'9" 165lbs. Jack Hughes is listed at 5'10" 157lbs. Yes, Hughes has to put on some weight, but he should be ok. He may play a year in college with his brother at Michigan which would help with his physical development.

I didn't know this, but Johnny Hockey plays with a 55 flex stick. Yes, Johnny Gaudreau Uses a 55 Flex Warrior Stick

A 55 flex stick is a junior stick mostly used by 13-14 year old kids! Hockey Stick Flex Guide – How to Choose Flex



He cuts it down, so it's probably around a 70 flex.
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
55,647
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1972

"Craigs on it"
Apr 9, 2012
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Why did Alex DeBrincat fall to the 2nd round in 2016 after back-to-back 50 goal seasons in the OHL?

Because NHL teams are not always that smart when it comes to drafting. We’re talking about a league that would still value a 6-4 stay at home defender who has below average skill and skating as a second round pick. I think as fans/media, we vastly overrate the intelligence level of many of these guys in hockey.
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
55,647
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Rochester, NY
Because NHL teams are not always that smart when it comes to drafting. We’re talking about a league that would still value a 6-4 stay at home defender who has below average skill and skating as a second round pick. I think as fans/media, we vastly overrate the intelligence level of many of these guys in hockey.

I'm just saying that the guys that passed on DeBrincat in 2016 are probably still calling the shots with more than a few teams now.

Keep hope alive!

And thank goodness that Asplund looks like a player.
 

1972

"Craigs on it"
Apr 9, 2012
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I'm just saying that the guys that passed on DeBrincat in 2016 are probably still calling the shots with more than a few teams now.

Keep hope alive!

And thank goodness that Asplund looks like a player.

I think the era of dinosaurs running organizations is going to be closing soon. There’s 70 year olds running NHL teams, think about how silly that is...
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
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Rochester, NY
I think the era of dinosaurs running organizations is going to be closing soon. There’s 70 year olds running NHL teams, think about how silly that is...

As long as old guys own teams, it will be a slow process of getting more progressive people running teams.

And even with a younger mind like Botterill here, he still has more of a "hockey guy" approach. At least so far.
 

1972

"Craigs on it"
Apr 9, 2012
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As long as old guys own teams, it will be a slow process of getting more progressive people running teams.

And even with a younger mind like Botterill here, he still has more of a "hockey guy" approach. At least so far.

It’s almost like progressive thinkers still get influenced by the elders the work with on decisions. There’s a few moves that Chayka has made that we’re so obviously not inline with his philosophy.
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
55,647
34,477
Rochester, NY
It’s almost like progressive thinkers still get influenced by the elders the work with on decisions. There’s a few moves that Chayka has made that we’re so obviously not inline with his philosophy.

What it will really take is an owner-GM-coach trio that are all on the same page with going with a more progressive approach.
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
55,647
34,477
Rochester, NY


Summary

Drafting high quality players seems to be more important than maximizing the fraction of drafted players who become NHLers. This should answer the question of whether the ideal draft strategy is to select for high upside or select for high probability of making it. The answer is that teams should always aim high and not be afraid of draft busts.



1*Z8BUGhuwAckXii2zGK0qrA.png
 

truthbluth

Registered User
Feb 2, 2011
7,184
6,415

This supports my general believe that the best draft strategy is accumulate picks, and take big gambles with each pick.
Other draft principles of mine:
A team should, every year if possible, acquire an extra 2nd or 3rd rd pick and use it to draft a goalie. Every. Year.
Unless a pick is top 10, trade down for more draft capital. A 4th is as good as a 7th.
The idea that if you draft a lot, you should draft more Euros and college players to give you more time is stupid. If you can't figure out if you want a player in 2 years, you don't want him. You will miss out on a few guys this way, but far fewer than you would by simply not considering players from the leagues, i.e. chl, that are responsible for like 50% of all NHLers.
If choosing between a player that has been productive, and a player that has great tools, pick the productive player.
No perimeter players. Guys who can't be bothered to deal with contact at the junior level aren't going to miraculously figure it out when the bodies get bigger and faster.
Position preference (only matters if players are evaluated to be roughly even): Center, RHD, LW, LHD, RW. Goalies are different, and since you are grabbing one every year, they don't factor in here.
Beware players who physically dominate. Big, strong and fast players that rely on physical tools to dominate at lower levels are going to struggle when they need to get crafty in the NHL.
Always, if given the chance, draft the 3rd line center of either the London Knights or the USNDTP. It's amazing how well this specific draft philosophy would work out.

These are things that seem pretty logical to me, but what the hell do I know?
 
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26CornerBlitz

1970
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Apr 14, 2012
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ISS Hockey Releases ISS Top 31 for February, Rankings of the Top Prospects for the 2019 NHL Draft - ISS Hockey

ISS Hockey Top 31 Ranked Prospects for 2019 NHL Draft

RankNameDate of BirthTeamLeaguePositionShotHeightWeight
1Hughes, JackMay 14/2001USA U18NTDPCL5.10.25168
2Kakko, KaapoFeb 13/2001TPS TurkuFinERWL6.02.25194
3Podkolzin, VasilyJun 24/2001St. Petersburg SKAKHLLWL6.01190
4Byram, BowenJun 13/2001Vancouver GiantsWHLLDL6.00.5194
5Cozens, DylanFeb 9/2001Lethbridge HurricanesWHLCR6.03181
6Dach, KirbyJan 21/2001Saskatoon BladesWHLCR6.03.5199
7Boldy, MatthewApr 5/2001USA U18NTDPLWL6.00.75175
8Zegras, TrevorMar 20/2001USA U18NTDPCL5.10.75159
9Broberg, PhilipJun 25/2001AIK IFSweAlLDL6.02.75199
10Turcotte, AlexFeb 26/2001USA U18NTDPCL5.11189
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
55,647
34,477
Rochester, NY
If you go by the standings today and take the lottery out of it, the Sabres own the 12th (StL), 17th (Buf), and 28th (SJ) picks.

Going off of the ISS list, I would say Caufield, Newhook, and hometown boy Case McCarthy would fit with Botterill's no-CHL resume.
 

Der Jaeger

Generational EBUG
Feb 14, 2009
17,592
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Cair Paravel
If you go by the standings today and take the lottery out of it, the Sabres own the 12th (StL), 17th (Buf), and 28th (SJ) picks.

Going off of the ISS list, I would say Caufield, Newhook, and hometown boy Case McCarthy would fit with Botterill's no-CHL resume.

I’d go Seider with the higher pick.
 
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