Speculation: The 2019 / 2020 Goal Prediction Thread

Discussion in 'Ottawa Senators' started by Chabot84, Jul 13, 2019.

  1. Chabot84 Registered User

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    Hey guys.. let’s predict how many goals each player on the senators will score this year and how many goals the Senators will score as a team this year. Then we can compare as the year goes on. Could make for an interesting thread. Obviously roster isn’t set yet so these would be early predictions but we can update our posts as we go before the first game of the season!

    Will also use this thread to track goals during the season so we can easily reference.

    I’ll start:

    Will update before first game of season to reflect the actual line up... when we can see better who will be playing and on what lines.

    Tkachuk - 25
    White - 20
    Duclair - 25
    Pageau - 12
    Artem Anisimov - 15
    Batherson - 15
    Ennis - 20
    Tierney - 15
    Boedker - 8
    Logan Brown - ???
    Brown - 15
    Ryan - 20
    Balcers - 1
    Veronneau - 15

    Forwards: 197

    Chabot - 20
    Zaitsev - 8
    Hainsey - 5
    Demelo - 3
    Boro - 1
    Jaros - 3
    Wolanin - 11
    Brannstrom - 2

    Defense: 53

    Total Goals Scored: 259
    Total Goals Allowed: 260
    Goal Differential: -1 (was at -10 before smith trade)

    Standings: Fight for WC spot

    **Note on Goal Differential: in order to hit those numbers our goalies must post a 0.910 save percentage and the team must not allow more then 35 shots per game on average. =258 goals against**

    If you tweak the goalies save percentage to 0.92 (highly unlikely) and keep the shots at 35 shots against per game. The sens will allow 230 goals and would almost certainly make the playoffs.

    At a save percentage of 0.915 with 35 shots against per game the sens would allow 243 goals and have a shot at a positive goal differential.

    Now we know there are going to be major growing pains and we will get blown out several times throughout the season. So I would say Sens are one of those odd teams where goal differential wouldn’t be the best metric on whether they make the playoffs or not. I could see them making a run at a WC spot with a -10 goal differential. Hence my prediction for standings.
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2019
  2. BondraTime Registered User

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    Tkachuk - 23
    White - 20
    Duclair - 21
    Pageau - 14
    Smith - 10
    Batherson - 14
    Ennis - 13
    Tierny - 13
    Boedker - 8
    Brown - 12
    Ryan - 13
    Veranneau/Davidsson/Brown/Balcers/Chlapik/Norris - 15 goals

    176 goals from F

    Chabot - 15
    Zaitsev - 6
    Hainsey - 3
    Demelo - 6
    Boro - 1
    Jaros - 5
    Wolanin - 5
    Brannstrom/Ebert/Lajoie - 5

    46 goals from D

    222 goals total

    Last place team, and doing it at the right time for once
     
  3. Cosmix Registered User

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    PlayerGamesGoals
    Tierney8015
    Pageau8015
    White8020
    Brown L5010
    Tkachuk8030
    Duclair8020
    Boedker805
    Smith805
    Ryan8015
    Batherson8015
    Brown C111
    Balcers805
    Davidson111
    Paul101
    Veronneau111
    Ennis805
    Abramov111
    F CHECKSUM0165
    Chabot8020
    Zaitsev8015
    De Melo805
    Wolanin505
    Borowiecki521
    Brannstrom101
    Lajoie101
    Jaros703
    Hainsey602
    D CHECKSUM053
    TOTAL0218
     
  4. BonkTastic ಠ_ಠ

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    If we score more than about 240 goals I will be utterly shocked.

    Divide it up however you want. Up front, Tkachuk will probably lead the team, with very few other legit 20 goal threats. White might get there if Smith gives him the opportunity.

    On D, Chabot will be the only defenceman to score more than 10. Outside of him, the offence on this blueline is anemic.
     
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  5. Gesus I am not religious

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    Tkachuk - 25
    White - 21
    Duclair - 24
    Pageau - 19
    Smith - 7
    Batherson - 11
    Ennis - 8
    Tierney - 14
    Boedker - 4
    Brown - 7
    Ryan - 13
    Balcers - 11
    Veronneau - 9

    Chabot - 16
    Zaitsev - 4
    Hainsey - 5
    Demelo - 6
    Boro - 0
    Jaros - 3
    Wolanin - 13
    Brannstrom - 5

    Not sure about the overall total there, but about what I expect to see from each. Notably, I think some young guys up front push vets like Boedker and Smith to the 4th line and produce a little better in their spots. On D, I think Wolanin is the guy the exceeds expectations offensively.
     
  6. Sens of Anarchy Registered User

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    Tkachuk - 25
    White - 21
    Duclair - 21
    Pageau - 15
    Smith - 8
    Batherson - 15
    Ennis - 10
    Tierney - 12
    Boedker - 5
    Brown - 12
    Ryan - 13
    Balcers - 9
    ============
    166

    Chabot - 18
    Zaitsev - 8
    Hainsey - 4
    Demelo - 5
    Boro - 0
    Jaros - 6
    Wolanin - 7
    Brannstrom - 2
    ==================
    50

    216 + 10 goals from players not listed 226
     
  7. Deku I'm off the planet

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    Tkachuk - 25
    Duclair - 20
    White - 18
    Batherson - 15
    Ryan - 15
    Pageau - 15
    Anisimov - 15
    Ennis - 14
    Pageau - 13
    C. Brown - 12
    Balcers - 10
    Tierney - 9
    Boedker - 8

    Chabot - 16
    Wolanin - 10
    Zaitsev - 6
    DeMelo - 4
    Hainsey - 3
    Jaros - 3
    Boro - 50
     
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2019
  8. BonkTastic ಠ_ಠ

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    Ok, lemme break this down on a micro level:

    Tkachuk - 26
    White - 20
    Duclair - 18
    Pageau - 13
    Smith - 13
    Batherson - 11
    Ennis - 15
    Tierney - 14
    Boedker - 6
    Brown - 16
    Ryan - 17
    Balcers - 13
    Veronneau - 6

    Chabot - 18
    Zaitsev - 4
    Hainsey - 4
    Demelo - 3
    Boro - 1
    Jaros - 2
    Wolanin - 9
    Brannstrom - 4

    Soooo... By my count, that's about what, 233 goals? Sounds about right.


    We'll probably allow somewhere in the range of 260-280 goals against, depending on how the Zaitsev-Hainsey experiment works out. Which means we'll probably be in the -25 to -45 goal differential range.
     
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  9. PeterSidorkiewicz HFWF Tourney Undisputed Champion

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    Bobby Ryan will be coming in hot. #5in50
     
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  10. BonkTastic ಠ_ಠ

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    I think Ryan will have himself a decent little season on paper, because who else is going to score goals on the RW?

    He's going to get a ton of PP time due to a lack of any better option at his position.

    Imma say he finishes somewhere around 17g-34a-51pts.
     
  11. FormentonTheFuture Registered User

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    Why would C Brown play 11 games?
     
  12. senators101 Registered User

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    No idea but we'll allow exactly 1.21x the number of goals scored.
     
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  13. Chabot84 Registered User

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    Updated my post just to clean up the thread a little :thumbu:
     
  14. innocent bystander Registered User

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    Ok this could be fun. First some line combinations, just so I have something to go off.

    Tkachuk - White - C. Brown
    Duclair - Pageau - Batherson
    Boedker - Tierney - Ryan
    Balcers - Smith - Veronneau/Ennis

    Chabot - DeMelo
    Wolanin - Zaitsev
    Borowiecki - Hainsey/Jaros

    Forwards
    Brady Tkachuk - 26-30-56
    Anthony Duclair - 22-19-41
    Colin White - 21-31-52
    Connor Brown - 20-21-41
    Drake Batherson - 15-21-36
    Rudolfs Balcers - 15-16-31
    J.G. Pageau - 14-20-34
    Bobby Ryan - 14-18-32
    Chris Tierney - 11-32-43
    Zach Smith - 8-14-22
    Mikkel Boedker - 6-18-24 *
    Tyler Ennis - 5-9-14
    Logan Brown - 4-9-13
    Max Veronneau - 4-8-12

    Defense
    Thomas Chabot - 18-43-61
    Christian Wolanin - 8-19-27
    Nikita Zaitsev - 5-20-25
    Dylan DeMelo - 3-19-22
    Erik Brannstrom - 2-6-8
    Maxim LaJoie - 2-4-6
    Christian Jaros - 1-10-11
    Ron Hainsey - 1-9-10 *
    Mark Borowiecki - 0-7-7

    Other F/D - 5-10-15

    Total - 230-413

    * players traded before deadline, I only include their totals with the Sens.
     
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  15. OmniSens @OmniSenators

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    Tkachuk - 19
    White - 19
    Duclair - 22
    Pageau - 9
    Smith - 8
    Batherson - 12
    Ennis - 11
    Tierney - 15
    Boedker - 12
    Brown - 7
    Ryan - 16
    Balcers - 7
    Veronneau - 3

    Forwards: 160

    Chabot - 16
    Zaitsev - 10
    Hainsey - 6
    Demelo - 5
    Boro - 0
    Jaros - 2
    Wolanin - 9
    Brannstrom - 9

    Defense: 57

    Total Goals Scored: 217
    Total Goals Allowed: 241
    Goal Differential: -24

    Standings: 28th overall
     
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2019
  16. robsenz Registered User

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    2 players get 20+ Goals this year. Tkachuk and Duclair, White comes up short.
     
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  17. JD1 Registered User

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    I think Chabot continues to improve and that we see a fair bit of Wolanin this year. The risk to Wolanin's ice time is likely Brannstrom and if it plays out that way, that's a good thing for the team. Either way, I think the puck should move out of our end easier this year and spend more time in the other end. And I think when it gets there we've got quite a few guys that can score.

    The guys we lost ate up a lot of ice but I think ice time opening up will result in some guys blossoming. I can see White putting up decent numbers and Tkachuk taking a big step forward. Duclair is an interesting wildcard. The kid can play. Batherson had 71 combined points last year in his first year of pro.

    I'm thinking we could see 70 goals between our top 3 scorers and close to 50 out of the next 3. I think we have more of a bottom 9 than bottom 6 because I think we'll see a lot of guys cycle thru those spots and people needing to produce to stay in the lineup. Maybe another 75 between that group. And I'll go 40 for the D with half belonging to Chabot.

    I think that is 235.
     
  18. StoicSensFan ( ͡° ͟ʖ ͡°)

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    I'm gonna go with a bold prediction and say Tkachuk breaks 40 and Duclair 30. Hoping White gets at least 25.
     
  19. Ed Wood Registered User

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    I think the Sens will score less goals this year than last. I see them as the second worst team in the league next to Los Angeles. The Kings will have an easier schedule though so the basement is a strong possibility. I'll consider the season to be a failure if it doesn't result in a top two pick in next years draft.
     
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  20. variable26 Global Matador

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    I am all in for basement, but I think we have some good prospects and players waiting to show their skills

    Fingers crossed
     
  21. Cosmix Registered User

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    I had 11 games left to assign to somebody and DuhDorion traded for him, so .
     
  22. Adele Dazeem Registered User

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    Tkachuk - 21
    White - 18
    Duclair - 22
    Pageau - 15
    Anisimov- 8
    Batherson - 19
    Ennis - 13
    Tierney - 10
    Boedker - 22
    Brown - 7
    Ryan - 20
    Balcers - 16
    Veronneau - 4
    Brown- 12

    Forwards: 207

    Chabot - 16
    Zaitsev - 7
    Hainsey - 2
    Demelo - 4
    Boro - 0
    Jaros - 2
    Wolanin - 9
    Brannstrom - 8

    Defense: 54

    Total Goals Scored: 255
    Total Goals Allowed: 307
    Goal Differential: -52

    Bottom-3; praying for Laferniere or Byfield
     
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  23. Super Cake Registered User

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    With the way the lottery works, the Sens are more likely to finish out of the top 2 than in the top 2.

    Prepare yourself to be disappointed.
     
  24. Sens Registered User

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    Tkachuk (25) - White (20) - C. Brown (15)
    Duclair (15) - Pageau (15) - Batherson (15)
    Boedker (10) - Tierney (10) - Ryan (15)
    Balcers (10) - Anisimov (10) - Ennis (10)
    Call ups (10)
    Blueline (30)

    220 GF

    From a 3.68GAA to 3.18GAA (Giving the Sens a 0.5GAA improvement)

    261 GA

    -41 Goal Differential

    Looking at a 70-76 point hockey club
     
  25. Tuna99 Registered User

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    Tkachuk - 38
    White - 17
    Duclair - 8
    Pageau - 11
    Ani Simon - 15
    Batherson - 24
    Ennis - 7
    Tierney - 18
    Boedker - 6
    L. Brown - 19
    C. Brown - 17
    Ryan - 12
    Balcers - 17
    Veronneau - 1


    Chabot - 12
    Zaitsev - 8
    Hainsey - 5
    Demelo - 4
    Boro - 0
    Jaros - 7
    Wolanin - 4
    Brannstrom - 3
     
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