Speculation: The 2014-2015 Goalie Situation

[Jame]

I'm of the mind that Miller isn't getting moved this summer so thats where my take comes from. But the idea that Hackett takes over with Enroth as the backup is an interesting thought.

if they don;t move miller this summer... do you expect them to move him at the deadline? not a lot of contenders/playoff teams are looking for goalies at the deadline...

 

[Luceni]

I don't mind if we trade Miller and get some pices we're missing back.

I'm fine with a Enroth/Hackett 1a, 1b duo

 

[Mit Yarrum]

I started this earlier in the day, but just came back to it, so the numbers are current with Monday I think. Also, my intent here is not really to advocate for/against Miller or Enroth, nor is it to point out Miller's Vezina year as some kind of outlier, but instead to shift the perspective somewhat from purely goaltending results and reflect on how much our special teams, particularly the PK and SH GA, deflate their numbers.

***

Ryan Miller save stats since lockout:

Year|GP|GS|ES SA| ES GA| ES Sv| ES Sv%|PP SA|PP GA|PP Sv|PP Sv%|SH SA|SH GA|SH Sv|SH Sv%|Tot Sv%
2005-06|48|47|1048|85|963|.919|307|31|276|.899|85|8|77|.906|.914
2006-07|63|61|1460|105|1355|.928|351|54|297|.846|75|9|66|.880|.911
2007-08|76|75|1631|139|1492|.915|382|51|331|.866|91|7|84|.923|.906
2008-09|59|58|1375|101|1274|.927|347|42|305|.879|51|2|49|.961|.918
2009-10|69|68|1690|121|1569|.928|321|26|295|.919|87|3|84|.966|.929
2010-11|66|65|1565|119|1446|.924|343|39|304|.886|56|7|49|.875|.916
2011-12|61|60|1479|116|1363|.922|262|30|232|.885|47|4|43|.915|.916
2012-13|36|35|900|65|835|.928|214|30|184|.860|26|4|22|.846|.913

Jhonas Enroth save stats since lockout:

Year|GP|GS|ES SA| ES GA| ES Sv| ES Sv%|PP SA|PP GA|PP Sv|PP Sv%|SH SA|SH GA|SH Sv|SH Sv%|Tot Sv%
2009-10|1|1|26|2|24|.923|5|2|3|.600|6|0|6|1.000|.892
2010-11|14|13|309|25|284|.919|58|7|51|.879|10|3|7|.700|.907
2011-12|26|22|603|44|559|.927|124|16|108|.871|29|3|26|.897|.917
2012-13|10|8|228|13|215|.943|34|5|29|.853|16|3|13|.813|.924

BUF PK% and total times SH since lockout:

Year|PK Rank|PK%|TTSH Rank|TTSH
2005-06|2nd|86.6|5th|439
2006-07|20th|81.4|8th|386
2007-08|11th|83.2|9th|333
2008-09|14th|81.8|14th|336
2009-10|2nd|86.6|6th|284
2010-11|13th|83.0|19th|300
2011-12|19th|81.7|9th|257
2012-13|26th|78.2|30th|165

***

Behind this year's poor squad, Miller has put together a better season at ES than either of his last two years and his .928 ES SV% is on-par with that of his Vezina year in 2009-10. However, among starting goalies in 2012-13, that sits outside the top-10, so you could say that he's only been above average at ES this year (ie. Anderson elite; Lundqvist, Bobrovsky top-3; Rask, Crawford top-5; Howard, Fleury, Hiller, Rinne, Schneider top-10; Niemi, Holtby, Miller in next tier, among top-15 at ES). Meanwhile, as a backup, Enroth's .943 ES SV% is elite, a tier above Bernier, Vokoun, Lehner and Khabibulin (noting of course the small sample size for all here).

Now where their TOT SV% plummets this year is on special teams, as our undisciplined nature (TTSH=30th) and shortcomings (PP%=30th, PK%=26th, PPGA=30th, SHGA=30th) repeatedly put much of the load on the goaltender's shoulders. With the most TTSH, they see man-advantages more often than any other team and are further hindered by a bottom-5 PK unit, thereby deflating their stats. In theory, with less penalties, a marginally better PK and/or an organized PP, Miller could have .920+ TOT SV% (think eight less goals at current shot count .. think if we don't take some pointless penalty, they don't score on next shot .. cut the PP turnovers .. etc.) and be in the top-15 overall, but still not elite nor quite top-10, so again above average. Regardless, his current .913 TOT SV% remains average. Meanwhile, Enroth's in the same boat with our lack of discipline and special teams shortcomings, as his elite ES SV% is cut .019 percentage points due to 5 PP GA and 3 SH GA in his smaller sample size and trails an elite backup like Lehner, but remains among the top-5 with Khudobin, Bernier and LaBarbera.

Now look at our PK% and total times SH over the years and you'll see that behind our most disciplined squad and a top-2 PK, Miller earned his Vezina. You'll also notice his fluctuation in PP SV% coincides with the strength of our PK units, as does Enroth's. Furthermore, if you see what today's top-10 PK% team's goalies look like, you'll find a pattern that the top goalies are typically among the top PK teams (ie. BOS - Rask .929 TOT SV%, Khudobin .924; OTT - Anderson .949, Lehner .936; TOR - Reimer .925; SJS - Niemi .925; CHI - Crawford .926, Emery .923; STL - outlier one; CBJ - Bobrovsky .931; PHI - outlier two; VAN - Schneider .928; EDM - Dubnyk .922, Khabibulin .919).

In sum (or TL;DR), Regier or his replacement needs to address the special teams dysfunction to get this team wins, as the goalies are pulling their weight at ES.

***

Also, Rinne seems to have a comparable problem this year in Nashville, as his .931 ES SV% is mere points ahead of Miller's with a nearly even ES SA. However, Nashville owns an even worse PK (TTSH=5th, PK%=28th) than us, which results in a .914 TOT SV% for Rinne. Is the perception around here that he's now an average goalie? What about goalies who are statistically a tier worse than them this year, like Price, Ward, Pavelec, Brodeur, Halak, Quick? That NHL.com poll certainly still holds four of them in higher regard - Rinne, Price, Brodeur, Quick - than Miller despite their current numbers.

Great post Woodhouse. I had forgotten our PK was as good as it was in 09-10.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

With Hackett in the mix, I would expect him in Rochester if they let Leggio walk, or in Buffalo if Miller wants out. I would think Regier would figure out what Miller wants first, and re-sign Leggio if Miller gets traded, then go with Hackett and Enroth getting equal time until one proves better. Leggio might be let go anyway if they decide Makarov needs the bulk of time in Rochester.

Above all, the team defense and PK unit needs to get squared away. If that happens none of us will be too bothered by who's in goal.