Thatcher Demko, Igor Shesterkin or Juuse Saros?

[SnowblindNYR]

How mn

The number of games played is part of your value. Ergo Eric Lindros is not a Mount Rushmore player.

Shesty this year, in his worst year so far, has a sv% = to demko’s career sv%. Demo, in his best year, is 4 points below shesty’s career sv%.

Shesterkin also has a .929 in the playoffs across 28 starts. Demko has incredible playoff numbers - in 3 total games.

There is literally no argument for Demko to be first here.

Not making the argument for Demko, but I feel like using GSAA will favor Saros. And games played all things being equal is worth more but give me Tim Thomas over like Craig Anderson or whoever was playing a ton of games while being mediocre. (Not sure if Craig Anderson is a good example).

 

[Felidae]

Are we using GSAA, the cumulative stat or the per game stat? Because using a cumulative stat seems silly for a position where every player plays a different amount of games.

Yeah I used the cumulative stat and not the per game one. Whoops. Can't find the per game stat.

But in games saved above expected per 60. Saros still has Demko beat there throughout their careers.

Minimum 20+ games from 2018 to present day

Demko: 6th, 8th, 15th, 31st,

Saros: 2nd, 7th, 8th, 14th 17th, 34th,

Shesterkin: 1st, 7th, 12th, 14th,

Shesterkin still has better goals above expected per 60 rankings despite starting his NHL career in 2019, and the consistency of Saros speaks for itself.

I know your not arguing for Demko btw, just thought I might as well post the numbers since he still has more votes than Saros..

 

[loosemoose]

Demko doesn't belong to this conversation. Saros has long resume of consistency and Shesterkin has highest highs. What has Demko done in his career?

 

[SnowblindNYR]

BTW, this basically is Igor Shesterkin in a nutshell. Rangers analyst Steve Valliquette has an analytics company. In January he said that Shesterkin had the worst save percentage in the NHL when down 2 or more goals in the season up to that point. In other words when he and his team are struggling his confidence goes and he can't stop the avalanche. So he had a lot of ugly games this year. Same analyst said that over the last three years he's had the best save % down 1, tied, or up 1. He can lock in with the best of them but when things aren't going well oh boy. That said I'd rather have this version than the opposite of it.

 

[Regal]

BTW, this basically is Igor Shesterkin in a nutshell. Rangers analyst Steve Valliquette has an analytics company. In January he said that Shesterkin had the worst save percentage in the NHL when down 2 or more goals in the season up to that point. In other words when he and his team are struggling his confidence goes and he can't stop the avalanche. So he had a lot of ugly games this year. Same analyst said that over the last three years he's had the best save % down 1, tied, or up 1. He can lock in with the best of them but when things aren't going well oh boy. That said I'd rather have this version than the opposite of it.

I think the idea of goalies like this make sense. Especially in a 7 game series where blowing a game doesn’t end a playoffs. I will say, watching Demko every game, he seems to play better when the team is playing worse and he’s getting a lot of shots, which is good, but I don’t know if he looks as good in tight games where the team is struggling to score as some of the other top goalies. I do wonder how much variance can play into these numbers though. Was this over this season or for his career?

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

igor , saros , demko

 

[SnowblindNYR]

I think the idea of goalies like this make sense. Especially in a 7 game series where blowing a game doesn’t end a playoffs. I will say, watching Demko every game, he seems to play better when the team is playing worse and he’s getting a lot of shots, which is good, but I don’t know if he looks as good in tight games where the team is struggling to score as some of the other top goalies. I do wonder how much variance can play into these numbers though. Was this over this season or for his career?

The 2+ goal stat was this season through Jan, so small sample but checked out based on the amount of blowouts we've had, the close game stat was the last three seasons.

I do think that generally over the career Shesterkin was better facing more shots and lost concentration is close games too. For a while he was undefeated when facing 40+ shots (or making 40+ saves). It's frustrating because you don't want your goalie to look good only when your team looks bad. But during good stretches it matters less.