As a general point, the SD of salary was not included because I did not input the exact salaries prior to running these early tests. But your first comments is more specific. Defining core players is subjective, and as such it is impossible to accurately include this type of variable for 30 teams over the course of six years. For instance, is Philllips in our core group? I would say yes, another researcher trying to replicate my results could easily say no.
The other factor to consider with core group is that even teams who have no had a lot of success can have expensive core groups. Winnipeg extended a pile of player to long expensive contracts this past summer even though they did not win much and did not make it into the playoffs. I would argue that all teams have core guys, and their cost is just rolled into the larger team salary.
Your point about core groups becoming expensive to retain is well made and I accept that logic. When a team has playoff success it is logical to assume that a bunch of players will ask for raises. This can lead to teams dumping players (like Chicago did a few years ago with Buff and Ladd), so the line between winning and payroll may not be all that clear. It is definitely something that would be fun to test and play with if I can get several more years worth of data. Thanks for taking the time to put together a well thought out response, and I really appreciate your insightful critique.
Fair enough and I really had no expectation for you to do any further analysis specific to my comments regarding core players.
My point is simple, in general teams have higher payrolls due to a solid veteran core group and/or young proven players considered part of the core. In both cases this has the biggest effect on payroll.
Chicago's top six account for ~$35M in cap space, where Ottawa's top six account for ~$22M.
A deeper look -
Chicago group; Toews, Kane, Sharp, Hossa, Seabrook, and Duncan.
Ottawa group - Spezza, Karlsson, Ryan, Michalek, Turris and MacArthur.
IMO what stands out in looking at these two lists is the quality which drives the cost, not the other way around.
