I'm certainly guilty of it myself. It's easy to look at someone who is incredibly slick with the puck and can bring you out of your seat and say "This is the clear pick in the late 1st. He could be a home run." Yet you ignore the fact that there aren't any other elements in his game that make him a viable NHL player if the talent doesn't translate. Once in a while you can make that swing but you simply cannot do it consistently while hoping to actually have some sort of ROI on your picks. Especially when you have to sort of guess as to how these kids will fit into the picture 4-5 years from now as opposed to tomorrow.
It's easy to sit on the side and say, "Yeah, but if everything breaks right..." because your job isn't riding on that decision. And to your point, skill and flash doesn't necessarily translate to upside. You could simply end up with a guy who is skilled, but not skilled enough to play above the 3rd line because he can't battle through the league's toughest competition. He might jump from team to team, teasing that he's going to finally take that step but he never does.
A long-time scout, who still works in the industry, once compared his job to investing in stocks.
It's not just the current value he's looking at, he's looking to see how his client's investment might grow and mature in the future. Sometimes a stock looks really good --- it's grown to a certain point, it would appear the future is bright, and everything is peachy.
But then you dig deeper and you realize there are flaws and concerns there. Maybe it's already peaked, maybe the stock will be impacted by an industry shift in a few years, maybe it will struggle to adapt.
Sometimes the better investment is in the company that no one is talking about. Or that you're not buying high on.
And you make that decision carefully, because it's your ass if you miss. It's your salary, your career and your ability to provide for your loved ones.
It's very easy to go for broke when there's nothing to lose. It's alot different when it's the rent money, or its a car payment, or the money for your kid's braces.