News Article: TBL chasing Karlsson is way for Wings to get Johnson

[A II R]

Here is a novel way to rebuild and improve our team:

Sign Erik ****ing Karlsson.

My point is moreso about our focus rather than worrying about Tampa. Why nickle n dime for 2nd and 3rd round picks when we can prioritize a first pairing dman.

Obviously, this was under the assumption that EK65 has no interest in coming to Detroit. We can't force him to be a Red Wing, and a bunch of other teams with better situations than ours will be lining up for his services.

 

[PullHard]

Here is the way I interpret contracts/ salary cap management/ roster building in the current time period

Signing a guy in UFA can be dicey, as it usually is at least a bit bloated if not an outright overpay

Also the term is usually at least a year or two too long

So say Karlsson has been speaking to Nyquist, Zetterberg does a little digging around through some back channels, Alfredsson gives his old teammate a phone call, etc. and Karlsson decides Detroit is a top destination to land for his last big contract, his big UFA payday deal and Steve Yzerman ends up signing him.

That in general is great! Adding a guy of Karlsson's caliber is amazing, right? Well if you're reading through this thread, you might think otherwise.

His deal will very likely land somewhere around an ~$11M cap hit and will be for the absolute max term, because he is the best D to hit the open market since, what? Chara? It has been a good decade+ since a blueliner of his caliber has hit the open market.

So say we all agree a deal more around ~$8.5M and ~5 years long is "fair" for the injury risk associated and potential decline.

In my opinion, in this current NHL set up, you pay your stars. Rather than have the 5-6 slightly (or maybe grossly in Abdelkader's case) homegrown type guys, who all make ~$500k-1M too much and all have a year or two more term than you'd like, you sign a guy like Karlsson for ~2-3M larger cap hit than you'd care to give him, and pay your replacement level players as close to league minimum as possible. That way, even if Karlsson hits a really downward turn in year 3 or 4 of a 7 year deal and he's playing at a level of say a ~$6-7M defender instead of $11M, you've done your due diligence as a GM and given yourself a little cushion to navigate the last 2+ nasty years at the end of that contract.

I would always choose to pay my stars and let the bottom 6 Fs/ bottom pair D walk in UFA if their ask is unreasonable, it just makes no sense in this day and age. It isn't feasible anymore.

Now, if you look at Yzerman's tenure in Tampa, he doesn't necessarily let his "depth" guys walk. Killorn, Palat, Johnson, Callahan, Miller, Gourde all have fairly substantial contracts, though I'd argue those guys are big improvements on the players that our board take exception to (Helm, Abdelkader, Glendening, Nielsen) so it isn't necessarily an equal comparison, but also he went out and traded for Callahan and McDonagh when they were considered big fish trade targets and gave them a big payday, so that fits with what I consider to be an optimal way to construct a team.

The potential reward of landing a Karlsson even at top dollar is so much bigger and better than the potential risk of letting a guy like Helm walk in UFA and signing or promoting a guy for ~league minimum.

 

[Henkka]

You can't compare anything that Yzerman has done last 8 years at Tampa, for what Holland did on his last 8 years at Detroit.

Because Tampa was a rising team on upswing, and Detroit was a regressing team on downswing. Then the overall manager work is just totally totally different from the startpoint.

 

[PullHard]

You can't compare anything that Yzerman has done last 8 years at Tampa, for what Holland did on his last 8 years at Detroit.

Because Tampa was a rising team on upswing, and Detroit was a regressing team on downswing. Then the overall manager work is just totally totally different from the startpoint.

I generally agree with you, but I think we both know a lot of people on this board have done this and will continue to do so, and I don't think it is completely without any results or merit. It is at least something to use as a basis for comparison even if the logic and philosophy between the two sets of moves is polar opposite.

 

[Inspiration]

Given how badly Fenton seems to want to move Zucker, I'd love to see Yzerman swoop in and steal him from the Wild. I doubt he could get a deal as good as the Niederreiter/Rask one, but nonetheless it could be an opportunity to acquire good a player on a decent contract for less than market value.

 

[Oddbob]

Given how badly Fenton seems to want to move Zucker, I'd love to see Yzerman swoop in and steal him from the Wild. I doubt he could get a deal as good as the Niederreiter/Rask one, but nonetheless it could be an opportunity to acquire good a player on a decent contract for less than market value.

Fenton would probably want a Bertuzzi level player though, as right now he seems to be making 1 for 1 type trades, to try and improve the team. Not sure who else we have that he would want, as they don't seem to be going the rebuild route.

 

[Henkka]

Fenton is not trying to improve the team (short-term). He is trading in-prime guys out and taking only vets or prospects in.

Minnesota is going towards a mini-TANK. That has been more than obvious lately.

- Granlund out
- Coyle out
- Niederreiter out
- Spurgeon on rumours
- Zucker on rumours

All on prime-age range and trading those guys out, you are gonna 100% sure fall on the standings.

Suter, Koivu, Parise (even rumoured interested in Kessel) are left as mentors for the next generation. That's the plan.

Minnesota is going to tank. They don't need Bertuzzi's anywhere.

 

[Heaton]

Fenton is not trying to improve the team (short-term). He is trading in-prime guys out and taking only vets or prospects in.

Minnesota is going towards a mini-TANK. That has been more than obvious lately.

- Granlund out
- Coyle out
- Niederreiter out
- Spurgeon on rumours
- Zucker on rumours

All on prime-age range and trading those guys out, you are gonna 100% sure fall on the standings.

Suter, Koivu, Parise (even rumoured interested in Kessel) are left as mentors for the next generation. That's the plan.

Minnesota is going to tank. They don't need Bertuzzi's anywhere.

I don't think every rebuilding move is a tank move. They're trying to get younger and re-shape the team that hasn't gotten them far enough. I think the Wings are in a great position to take advantage of some of these teams in this situation.

 

[Heaton]

This can be closed now since EK signed.