Speculation: Taylor Hall Contract

Discussion in 'Arizona Coyotes' started by RABBIT, Dec 19, 2019.

  1. hbk

    hbk Registered User Sponsor

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    Hossa
     
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  2. Grimes

    Grimes HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    Yep, pretty much any combo of Hossa + Stepan/Goligoski/Raanta/Demers/Kessel would do the trick. Really wonder with Minnesota going into a retool mode if they would be interested in Stepan and Hossa's contract. Just send us a late pick back and you have a center/"leader" who can be a stop gap down the middle while the kids start developing.

    Out of the higher paid (4m +) players what would everyones preference be for moving out strictly for salary/cap purposes, aka receiving picks and lower end prospects and no incoming roster players? In most preferred to move to least mine would go:
    Raanta (I think Hill is ready for the backup spot)
    Goligoski (Kid Soda can take his spot and Goli will be 35. Could take a massive dip in performance)
    Kessel (Always that slight chance of a bounce back season and would be the hardest to move)
    Demers (Injuries are starting to stack up, but he is a true RHD and plays to his salary)
    Stepan (Overpaid 3rd or 4th C sure, but center depth is still so important. Hopefully he would see minimal PP time)
     
  3. BUX7PHX

    BUX7PHX Registered User

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    That also is inclusive of Hossa's contract, which would be placed on LTIR.

    I think that people are envisioning the following players being traded if we were to re-sign Hall:

    Stepan
    Kessel
    Grabner
    Hinostroza (RFA)
    Fischer (RFA)

    Goligoski
    Demers
    Oesterle

    Raanta

    Our best guess is that somewhere around a $9.6 - 10.5 M AAV probably gets the needle going, and I could see Raanta, Demers, Grabner, or Hinostroza being the most likely casualties.

    Raanta and Demers to Ottawa during the draft for a 2020 2nd, 2021 5th round pick, and Nicholas Paul (as our 13th F next year) is an example where Arizona clears out over $7 M in salary. Ottawa could use a goalie and another RHD.
     
  4. BUX7PHX

    BUX7PHX Registered User

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    I am still mixed about this.

    If we take on a deal for Hall, we will have to trade some salary out. In my eyes, this is where it makes more sense to keep Hossa and put him on LTIR, so that there is more flexibility. To put it another way, if we sign Hall at $10 M AAV, that puts the Coyotes at $90.715 M on an $83 M cap. Who do we trade, but more importantly, which players are of high enough value to be traded?

    Goligoski ($5.575 M with M-NTC) - meh value
    Demers ($3.9375 M) - better value
    Oesterle ($1.4 M) - decent value
    Raanta ($4.25 M) - decent value
    Kessel ($6.8 M) - poor value
    Stepan ($6.5 M) - below average to meh value
    Grabner ($3.35 M) - poor value

    We need to clear at least $8 M to have any ability to add other pieces. I have penciled in Soderstrom and Hayton to the roster. We have 9 forwards with 2 pending RFAs in Hinostroza and Fischer. We would have 7 D, with Lyubushkin as an RFA. In other words, it makes more sense to trade a D away, but we have very few D that will save more than $7 M, unless traded with another player. If that player is a F, then we now have 8 forwards with 2 pending RFAs and will need to bring 3 up. Let's say we deal Raanta and Goligoski - that leaves $4 M now to re-sign Lyubushkin for our 7 D, and we have to add 2 more players (likely 3 more depending on Grabner). We would also have to re-sign Hill and move him up to the main roster.

    I see the Coyotes needing to add a minimum of 3 players to a roster in which the best amount of space we could probably clear out is Raanta and Kessel together, for about $11 M. Even at that number, that still leaves about $5 M for roughly 3 players or so, although we could get rid of other money by dealing a defenseman like Oesterle.

    Just seems like it is close enough that the flexibility to go above the cap by putting Hossa in LTIR appears to be the best scenario.
     
  5. slv

    slv Registered User

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    I am not high on Hall, especcially in terms of decision making. Look at the OT in Toronto game, Yotes have 1:30 PP 4 vs 3, an Hall killed it with two dumb shots and a turnover. For the last moments of that pp he remembered of Chychrun existance.
    Do not want to pour big bucks in that guy. Wingers are replaceable, we need centers.
    I am fully understand I would in minority here, though
     
  6. Jakey53

    Jakey53 Registered User

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    We need talent, at all positions. I love Hall, his passion and the way he plays, but in four years who knows. Hall is a star, some say super star, we don't have one on our team. Star players, at any position, are not replaceable. Don't forget, star players will/should attract other higher end talent.
     
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  7. zz

    zz Registered User

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    Do we have a better player on the roster? Does he work hard every game, every shift? Does he not make players around him better? Our #1 goal scorer absolutely loves playing with him. How could we justify NOT trying to sign this guy?

    Keller at $ 7M for eight years and Schmaltz at $ 6M for 7 are much more of a problem than a $ 10M Taylor Hall.
     
  8. WrinkledPossum

    WrinkledPossum Play Dead

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    Everyone in the league wants a centre.

    Question is how are are we going to get one? We've been trying for like 15 years to get a high end C.
     
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  9. rt

    rt Registered User

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    OEL for RyJo. 1:1 - even swap.
     
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  10. WrinkledPossum

    WrinkledPossum Play Dead

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    I said high end;)
     
  11. rt

    rt Registered User

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    21yo season 63pts
    22yo season 71pts
    23yo season 60pts
    24yo season 61pts
    25yo season 54pts
    26yo season 64pts
    *27yo season 46pts (pace)*

    So from 21 to 26 he averaged 62pts per season. He looked to be right on the verge of being a top center in this league. Headed right into his prime and then *SPLAT!!!*

    I'd argue the same was very true of OEL.

    22yo season 15g, 44pt
    23yo season 23g, 43pt
    24yo season 21g, 55pt
    25yo season 12g, 39pt
    26yo season 14g, 42pt
    27yo season 14g, 44pt
    *(28yo season 09g, 33pt (pace)*

    So from 22 to 27 he had avg 17g, 45pts per season and then *SPLAT!!!*

    Both coinciding with giant new contracts. So strange. Very similar players. Just inexplicable falls.

    Reading the complaints from both fanbases about each players is the same, too.

    Arizona is bottom 10 in GF/GP in the NHL and Nashville is top 10. Arizona has the 5th best GA/GP in the league and Nashville has the 5th worst. AZ needs scoring ESPECIALLY at center. Nashville needs a D. It could make some sense.
     
  12. Jamieh

    Jamieh Registered User

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    I doubt Nashville needs a 2nd pairing D at over $8 ,million a year while losing one of their only centers. The route out for OEL is a team without top line D.
     
  13. SniperHF

    SniperHF You might surprise yourself

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    71 points now isn't terribly impressive but in 14-15 that's a killer number. 16th in league scoring.

    (just for the folks at home who might have forgot that league scoring is up :P )
     
  14. XX

    XX Sticky Icky Icky

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    Taylor Hall is a contract risk his last 4-5 years. He has 3 or 4 years in him.

    I think every team knows this and someone will offer him a front loaded w/bonus structure deal.

    Trading some guys and re-circling the wagons around Chych/Keller/Garland/Soderstrom/Hayton/Dvorak etc... might be a better idea in the long run.
     
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  15. WrinkledPossum

    WrinkledPossum Play Dead

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    Derek Stepan played at a 57 point pace before coming to AZ. RyJo averages 5 points more than that while playing on a team that I think is better than the teams Stepan was on. If RyJo comes here I think there's a really good chance the same thing could happen where his numbers decline.

    I don't think he's a substantial upgrade on Dvo. Within a year Dvo could be better, and who knows maybe Hayton too.
     
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  16. DoanStopBelievin

    DoanStopBelievin Registered User

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    I hope for Taylor’s sake he doesn’t sign here.
     
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  17. ducky

    ducky Registered User

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    Winning a round AND signing Hall costs the team another 1st, right? So, little chance they win a round. So it is just a third in 2021 they lose?
     
  18. Jakey53

    Jakey53 Registered User

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    Nashville does not need OEL, and RyJo career PPG is almost the same as Stepan, and is getting paid $8 mil. / yr. No thank you.
     
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  19. Forge

    Forge Registered User

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    It goes up for each condition. If you sign him, but don't win a playoff series, it's a second. If you win a playoff series but don't re sign him, second. Do neither, third. Do both, first
     
  20. slv

    slv Registered User

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    Yes to all, but I`m not sold. Poor decicsion making, very avarege balance.
    There is no reason to give him more than $8.5m.

    Yes, but Keller and Schmaltzy still have room to be better, maybe with another coach/system. Hall can be only worse.
     
  21. rt

    rt Registered User

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    I can see why someone might not be thrilled with the idea of paying Hall 80m. I get that. But you’re probably the only guy worried about his “average balance” as a factor in this. Haha. :)
     
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  22. rt

    rt Registered User

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    1. Win a round AND sign Hall = 1st
    2. Win a round OR sign Hall = 2nd
    3. Neither = 3rd
     
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  23. XX

    XX Sticky Icky Icky

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    I would expect half of his contract to be bad in terms of production v cap hit.
     
  24. _Del_

    _Del_ All Leafs, all the time

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    He'd have to want to sign here, so I'm really not worried about it.

    Also, GM's are probably factoring in end of contract performance and the likely cost to dump the contract in the figures.

    If I hand Hall 80M, and I know he's going to be hard to move (say a first plus good/great prospect) at the end, what I have to factor is: is four years of Hall starting today worth a first or two in 2025-26, and possibly up to 50% retention in 2025-2028?

    For GM's looking at windows of opportunity (and some of whom won't be with the team in 2025 when the hard decisions come), it's an easy choice. You're trading distant future assets for a premier player in free agency. It's a trade equation, not a purely contract -based one.

    That's why you heard last year: "I'm trying to dump a bad contract or two so I can had out new ones".

    Teams know there will be a price to pay. They are just gambling the price is worth the immediate payoff.
     
  25. WrinkledPossum

    WrinkledPossum Play Dead

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    Hall sounds quite happy here. This article makes me optimistic about him resigning.

    "I want to make the playoffs with the guys here," Hall said. "I don't want to go anywhere else."

    “Everything has been great, besides the winning part. That’s basically the only part that’s missing over the last couple weeks, but the guys are great, the coaching staff’s been awesome, and Arizona is a great place to live,” he told NHL.com. “It’s been really fun just kind of getting into a new city, getting acclimated with a new group of guys. These guys have a lot of fun. They have a lot of fun playing hockey and it’s been fun enjoying that.”

    Hall says he wants to finish season, make playoffs with Coyotes
     
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