Tavares

[Frk It]

Unless they get injured and you get nothing.

Nyquist has played 82 games in 3 of the last 4 seasons...

 

[Hen Kolland]

I think it stalls the rebuild. We go from a definite lottery team to a maybe bubble team. He's 27. He's got maybe a couple years of peak left even though most forwards peak sooner. We're not ready to compete in those 2 years. We need big upgrades on defense and we're not even positive that guys like Hronek are gonna be on the team next season. Very optimistically we're ready in 3 years. His prime is well done by the time we're ready to compete. Z's definitely gone by then too. Howard's great but he's 34 already and unreliable healthwise and as far as I know we don't even have a projected farm goalie that can take his spot.

We've got major, major, holes in this team that signing Tavares does nothing to address. In fact he makes it harder by guaranteeing we draft lower.

The rest of my post kind of addresses your concerns. I wouldn't go all in to sign him because we wouldn't be ready to compete right off the bat due to the holes you addressed. But if the Wings want to do it, I'm not going to say no. There is a trickle down effect of signing a star; we would be a destination again. That's why I was an advocate for Stamkos. I would just prefer to make this move when we are a little closer to a finished product with a healthier cap situation, but you also have to consider that Tavares is one of the top 15(?) players in the league and you don't get this opportunity all that often. I looked at the UFA classes over the next few years, and it's really Tavares this year, Karlsson/Doughty/OEL next year, and then not a whole lot on the horizon. If you think you want to go after a top 15 talent, you probably have to do it now. It's conflicting for sure.

 

[Redder Winger]

Nyquist has played 82 games in 3 of the last 4 seasons...

Which doesn't mean much.

 

[Frk It]

Which doesn't mean much.

How so? It means he is durable, and there is not much risk to waiting until the TDL to trade him.

 

[Redder Winger]

How so? It means he is durable, and there is not much risk to waiting until the TDL to trade him.

Everyone is durable until they aren't

I said in the deadline in 2017 that we should trade Green now.
I said that in the 17/18 offseason we should trade Green now.
I said at the start of the 18 season we should trade Green.

Over and over I was told, you maximize your value if you wait until the deadline.
But that's a crapshoot.

If you wait until the trade deadline of his UFA year, you've backed yourself into the corner.

Besides, look what we just got for Tatar by NOT waiting until the trade deadline of his UFA season.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Everyone is durable until they aren't

I said in the deadline in 2017 that we should trade Green now.
I said that in the 17/18 offseason we should trade Green now.
I said at the start of the 18 season we should trade Green.

Over and over I was told, you maximize your value if you wait until the deadline.
But that's a crapshoot.

If you wait until the trade deadline of his UFA year, you've backed yourself into the corner.

Besides, look what we just got for Tatar by NOT waiting until the trade deadline of his UFA season.

Oh my god...

You hold out till the TDL of a UFA season when you are dealing a rental. And Tatar was traded at 3:59 PM on the TDL day. Just because there was bad fortune and Mike Green got hurt like a week beforehand does not invalidate waiting and making the deal.

On a game in, game out basis, it's not a crapshoot. This would be like saying "I got into a car accident taking I-94 home to Detroit from Ann Arbor, so I'm going to take 23 to 696 or 275 to 96 and across" It's another way of doing it, but isn't it a hell of a lot more attractive to take the most efficient/effective way to do something, regardless of one bad experience? Or better choice, you take I-696 to go from Southfield to Roseville.... but oh no, there is a huge accident at Mound and 696 is shut down there and you're stuck for 5 hours, whereas if you simply took 12 mile the whole way, you'd have gotten there no problem. The freeway route, on any given trip, is still a FAR FAR better idea than surface streets, even if it would have been a better choice to use surface streets that time.

*****ing about not dealing Green is *****ing using hindsight and that kind of complaining is completely worthless to me. It was the right move to wait until the TDL, they just got clipped by bad luck. It happens. If you start operating and jumping the gun based of fears of the specter of injuries, you're going to get taken advantage of at the trading table.

 

[Frk It]

OT- delete

 

[JustJokinenAround]

I would imagine that someone like JT would ask for 7M+, freeing up that much is not gonna be easy with out current situation.

Tavares will get $10M+ and they have to sign Larkin and Mantha. I mean signing Tavares wouldn't be bad but I don't see where it is even remotely possible.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Tavares will get $10M+ and they have to sign Larkin and Mantha. I mean signing Tavares wouldn't be bad but I don't see where it is even remotely possible.

Larkin long term gets 6M probably. 8/48 if he signs now.
Mantha has had rumors float out that he's going bridge deal to try and get big cash in a couple years. That tells me about 3.5-4

And if they land Tavares, they'll go bargain shopping on D and not bring back Green at 6M+

And this is without changing around any other roster players. Trade Howard and sign a guy like Elliot for 2.5. Trade Nyquist and that's more space. LTIR Kronner, more space.

If they want to make it happen space wise, there are a million and one things they can do.

 

[Redder Winger]

Oh my god...

You hold out till the TDL of a UFA season when you are dealing a rental. And Tatar was traded at 3:59 PM on the TDL day. Just because there was bad fortune and Mike Green got hurt like a week beforehand does not invalidate waiting and making the deal.

On a game in, game out basis, it's not a crapshoot. This would be like saying "I got into a car accident taking I-94 home to Detroit from Ann Arbor, so I'm going to take 23 to 696 or 275 to 96 and across" It's another way of doing it, but isn't it a hell of a lot more attractive to take the most efficient/effective way to do something, regardless of one bad experience? Or better choice, you take I-696 to go from Southfield to Roseville.... but oh no, there is a huge accident at Mound and 696 is shut down there and you're stuck for 5 hours, whereas if you simply took 12 mile the whole way, you'd have gotten there no problem. The freeway route, on any given trip, is still a FAR FAR better idea than surface streets, even if it would have been a better choice to use surface streets that time.

*****ing about not dealing Green is *****ing using hindsight and that kind of complaining is completely worthless to me. It was the right move to wait until the TDL, they just got clipped by bad luck. It happens. If you start operating and jumping the gun based of fears of the specter of injuries, you're going to get taken advantage of at the trading table.

This wasn't hindsight.
This was foresight.

I'm sorry you don't have the foresight to understand that injuries are always a risk. And that injuries are frequent in the NHL.
And that if you wait until the deadline and you get screwed by injury, that it's your fault you didn't make the move.

And that FACTS show that "waiting until the deadline in UFA year" isn't always the way to maximize value.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Larkin long term gets 6M probably. 8/48 if he signs now.
Mantha has had rumors float out that he's going bridge deal to try and get big cash in a couple years. That tells me about 3.5-4

And if they land Tavares, they'll go bargain shopping on D and not bring back Green at 6M+

And this is without changing around any other roster players. Trade Howard and sign a guy like Elliot for 2.5. Trade Nyquist and that's more space. LTIR Kronner, more space.

If they want to make it happen space wise, there are a million and one things they can do.

I agree there's a lot they can do, but Kronwall doesn't want to LTIR unless he flat out can't play. Nyquist could always use his full NTC to prevent any trade, and there's a chance that if they want Tavares they might keep Nyquist in order to compete. I think we have taken a few liberties of what's possible/likely. It's more likely that Glendening is traded, that Frk isn't qualified, that Ouellet is moved, etc. things that they absolutely have control over.

 

[RedWingzz]

Bring something real to the convo or don't bother.

I provide estimates of what might get a deal done.
If you have problem, tell me why those estimates are wrong..
.

I previously explained why it is unrealistic for us to get Tavares, let alone Tavares AND Doughty. Sorry man, it's just not realistic. After all Holland is the man in charge, and he doesn't make drastic moves.

Your calculations seem fine, but I just think it's pointless to fantasize about these types of players joining our team when we are in the start of a rebuild. Tavares and Doughty want to win now, not in 7 years.

 

[obey86]

Tavares does not want to pay for the Wings lol. Tavares wants to win a Cup, we are a good 2-3 years away from the playoffs, and a good 6+ years away from potentially challenging for a Cup.

We don't have cap space to sign anyone of value for the time being. Resigning the RFAs will just about take us to the cap. The following offseason is when we could potentially look at the UFA market when Nyquist/Howard/Kronwall/Zetterberg(ltir?) come off the books.

Not really, the cap could be as high as 82 million next season. They only have 57 million under contract for next year. 57 + 7 (Larkin) +6 (Mantha) + 4 (AA) only puts the Wings at 74 million and that's erring on the really high side with their contracts, doubt they will all make as much as I said. Bertuzzi, Frk, and a backup goalie will be cheap. Maybe they can't fit a 10M contract under the books, but they could probably sign someone for a solid cap hit (5M or so) if they really want to.

 

[obey86]

Larkin gets 6. That makes sense.
Mantha is going bridge contract. He's made that pretty clear. He's getting 3.5-4M maybe for two years. He looks to be gambling on himself.
AA gets between 2-2.5M for 2 or 3 years and he likes it... or he's gone. No way in hell does he deserve 4M. I'd let him walk before I signed him for 4M ****ing dollars.

A Nyquist deal is pretty easy.
A Daley deal comes with more question marks, but doable I think.
A Jimmy Howard deal almost seems likely.

If the Wings wanted money for Tavares, there are a litany of very realistic moves that they can make that easily give them that cash. They had the money for Stamkos in a MUCH MUCH tighter window.

Agreed. I was erring on the complete high side with the Larkin, Mantha, and AA contracts.

 

[PelagicJoe]

Signing Tavares does fill one of our two biggest needs, especially with Z retiring in the next couple of years. Centers of his caliber don't come along very often.

 

[FireBird71]

I don't just as soon spend the next 2 seasons playing out some contracts and stockpile young talent.

 

[Mijatovic]

I don't just as soon spend the next 2 seasons playing out some contracts and stockpile young talent.

What happens in two seasons when our number 1 centre is just an average player one who cant drive the franchise to success because we didnt win the lottery?

 

[Ezekial]

What happens in two seasons when our number 1 centre is just an average player one who cant drive the franchise to success because we didnt win the lottery?

What happens if we are a 10-14 pick team for the next 3 years?

I love John Tavares, but I don't think Ken Holland signing him this off-season is the right move. Rebuild mode boys.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

What happens if we are a 10-14 pick team for the next 3 years?

I love John Tavares, but I don't think Ken Holland signing him this off-season is the right move. Rebuild mode boys.

If a top 25 player in the NHL wants to play for your team, you should sign them.

I get the rebuild idea, I understand those saying we might not lineup with Tavares and being elite. But I just cannot say, hey we need less great players. I won't embrace that idea. I don't think he is coming, but if Tavares, Karlsson or Doughty is willing to listen, then you pitch them. It changes the dynamic of your rebuild anyway.

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

Not really, the cap could be as high as 82 million next season. They only have 57 million under contract for next year. 57 + 7 (Larkin) +6 (Mantha) + 4 (AA) only puts the Wings at 74 million and that's erring on the really high side with their contracts, doubt they will all make as much as I said. Bertuzzi, Frk, and a backup goalie will be cheap. Maybe they can't fit a 10M contract under the books, but they could probably sign someone for a solid cap hit (5M or so) if they really want to.

I really doubt AA sniffs 4 million, especially as an RFA. He is not liked by the coaching staff and behind all the flashy moves, the production doesn’t show much. Similarly Mantha will prob get closer to 5. His production nosedived the second half.

This may be a bit on the optimistic side but I’d think this would be a fair deal for each

Larkin 6.5 x 6 years
Mantha 5 x 2
AA: 3.3 x2

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I really doubt AA sniffs 4 million, especially as an RFA. He is not liked by the coaching staff and behind all the flashy moves, the production doesn’t show much

Arbitration if it happens is going to be brutal for AA.

He won't get a big judgment in my opinion and the Wings rightfully are going to rake him over the coals if it happens.

 

[Shaman464]

Tavares could be a supercharger to your rebuild.

1) Draft a defenseman who can play as early as next year (Bouchard, perhaps).
2) Sign Tavares. Spend one more year outside the playoffs.
3) Draft another top 10 pick.
4) Sign OEL/Doughty/Karlsson next year.

Here's what you're looking at, assuming Z LTIRes before 19-20.

Abdelkader-Tavares-Mantha
AA-Larkin-Bertuzzi
Rasmussen-Nielsen-Svechnikov
Helm-Turgeon-Glendening
Frk

Dekeyser Doughty
Daley Bouchard
Cholowski Hronek
Ericsson

(No goalies)

If you land a decent goalie and get a decent coach, this team could make some noice, especially if the kids grow up.


Total cap hit $70M. The cap hit will probably be around $82M
So you've got $13M to get two goalies
You could also throw a couple million extra million at Doughty or Tavares.


$10.5Mx7 for Tavares
$10.5x7 for Doughty
$6Mx8 for Larkin
$4.2x3 for Mantha
$2.4x3 for AA
$1Mx2 for Bertuzzi
$1mx2 for Frk
$800,000x2 for Turgeon
$800,000x2 for Hicketts

The team is better off with Ras on the 2nd line on that team. AA would make that 2nd line a defensive train wreck and its already marginal with Bert on the other wing.

 

[FMichael]

Was driving the other day listening to 97.1 and the guy hosting said that he had heard from several sources, that when the Islanders played the Wings the last game of the season...the Wings brass gave him a personal tour of Little Caesar's Arena. Could be something to think about. Wings will have to move out some salary. Would you guys want him?

I'm a firm believer Holland signed Nielsen to help lure Tavares to the Motor City

 

[FMichael]

Tavares will get $10M+ and they have to sign Larkin and Mantha. I mean signing Tavares wouldn't be bad but I don't see where it is even remotely possible.

Green, and Mrazek combined salaries were roughly $10 million.

Not sure if that's enough, but it's a start.

 

[Ezekial]

If a top 25 player in the NHL wants to play for your team, you should sign them.

I get the rebuild idea, I understand those saying we might not lineup with Tavares and being elite. But I just cannot say, hey we need less great players. I won't embrace that idea. I don't think he is coming, but if Tavares, Karlsson or Doughty is willing to listen, then you pitch them. It changes the dynamic of your rebuild anyway.

Assuming Tavares signs with us, I'd certainly be happy about it, and I think you know I'd be along for the ride. It could very well be a decision that leads to exactly what a bunch of people here complain about happening, circling around mediocrity and actually extending a rebuild to ten years.

Arbitration if it happens is going to be brutal for AA.

He won't get a big judgment in my opinion and the Wings rightfully are going to rake him over the coals if it happens.

Yea, he's going to have a rough negotiation if it goes to arbitration. I wouldn't wanna be Ferris in that situation.