Tavares/Marner/Hyman - Series Role

Beyonder91

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Oct 13, 2006
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They dont have to score but if they dont go beyond a shutdown role, we will probably loose. If the ones with most points in regular season dont produce points then whats the point? The answer is not to go to the Nylander line, that would be stupid. And Matthews line cant do it all.

And special teams need to be better.

That's the question... is Babcock making the right coaching decision?
 
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MapleLeafs77

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Oct 20, 2017
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I really liked JTs game yesterday. He was creating chances for himself and his teammates.

Marner is not creating chances per his usual self.

These lines are Godzilla vs King Kong. Its a tough go out there.

Watch how dominant their big line looks when they catch anybody but our top 2 lines out there and you get a renewed appreciation for how good they are.
I disagree with your last point. Bergeron went up against matthews in game 5 and matty won that battle pretty well. He played against the bergeron and marchand line 63% of the time and kept them in the ozone the whole time really.
 
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Nithoniniel

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I didn't see the Tampa series but I'll take your word on that. I also imagine that Hedman was on the Tampa side though? That alone makes all the difference. Muzzin/Zaitsev can't be compared to a Norris winner.
I am the only one talking about this subject with any depth. All you are saying is they need to score more... I am trying to explain you can't just look at this in an absolute sense to see how they are doing. Your comments are almost all absolute in nature which is no way to judge performance in their role.
Come back when you bother to read my posts, because I have not even made them scoring more the central point of my argument.
 

hotpaws

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Nov 21, 2009
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Their role is to neutralize the Bergeron line 5on5 which they have largely done. Bergeron line has only scored against them 5on5 in one game.

Sarcasm isn't helping your case... haha
Shouldn't there be quotes from the coach/MGMT on there role if what you say is true ?

If there isn't then I guess it's just a fairy tale you made up too defend our 11 million dollar man poor play so far .
 

Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
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They've been fine, toughest assignment and playing virtually even.
3rd line has been the big let down. They should be dominant and are really missing Kadri.

Marner and JT are supposed to be two of the team’s best forwards (their pay cheque certainly suggests that - though Marner’s will start this summer).

They are expected to produce; blaming the third line shouldn’t be an excuse for that (especially given that the third line actually scored last game...)
 

Menzinger

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People need to come back to reality and realize who they are up against. Bergeron is arguably the greatest defensive player of all time and one of the very best faceoff guys ever as well. He has won 4 selke, every gold medal imaginable and been to the Cup finals twice winning it once. Marchand is right there with him for all around ability. These guys have been playing together dominating lines for years whereas this is the first year of Tavares/Marner together.

Tavares/Marner have kept them off the scoresheet 5on5 head to head in 5/6 games and our fans are still whining.

You guys are honestly delusional with your expectations.

Now with that said our power play has been a massive disappointment. We need our guys to step up there if we are going to win game 7.

Two 90 point forward should produce in the post season. There’s nothing delusional about that - especially given their toi
 

BertCorbeau

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Shouldn't there be quotes from the coach/MGMT on there role if what you say is true ?

If there isn't then I guess it's just a fairy tale you made up too defend our 11 million dollar man poor play so far .

Babcock matching that line against Boston's top line isn't proof for you?
 

hotpaws

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Nov 21, 2009
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Babcock matching that line against Boston's top line isn't proof for you?
Proof that he doesn't want them to score like the other poster keeps insisting ? And how does Babcock have last change home and away to match lines ?

As the series has gone on Boston's top line has been more more dominate . Flip goalies and the B's would have won in 5 .
 

BertCorbeau

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Proof that he doesn't want them to score like the other poster keeps insisting ? And how does Babcock have last change home and away to match lines ?

As the series has gone on Boston's top line has been more more dominate . Flip goalies and the B's would have won in 5 .

Babcock has been chasing that match up on the road when he can

You mean the top line that's been broken up? Definitely not at 5 on 5 .. They've been better but not dominant. 10 of that line's 19 points have come on the PP.

Collectively the players on that line have scored 2 ES goals .. The Tavares line has 3.

Look I'm not saying the Tavares line has been dominating. But considering that Cassidy broke up one of the best lines in the NHL because the Tavares line was neutralizing them is an indication of their strong play. They've been quite evenly matched despite the less than preferred production. I would take that all day in a playoff series match up because the Leafs have the depth otherwise to win.

It's an odd thing to argue, the Tavares line play, given how the Bergeron line torched the Leafs last playoffs and the Leafs had no one to answer them.
 
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ToneDog

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Two 90 point forward should produce in the post season. There’s nothing delusional about that - especially given their toi

And you don't think going up against the Bergeron line has something to do with those two 90 point players production? Bergeron, Pasta and Rat each have 3 ES points. The startegy is for a saw off between the top two lines and to beat them with our depth. Matty has stepped up. The third line (w/o Kadri) is not able to do so. The 4th line has been good but don't play enough.

The difference is that their PP works and our has not.
 

Menzinger

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And you don't think going up against the Bergeron line has something to do with those two 90 point players production? Bergeron, Pasta and Rat each have 3 ES points. The startegy is for a saw off between the top two lines and to beat them with our depth. Matty has stepped up. The third line (w/o Kadri) is not able to do so. The 4th line has been good but don't play enough.

The difference is that their PP works and our has not.

Their usage isn't easy. But there's no escaping the reality that JT is the second highest paid player in the league - and Marner will be one of highest paid by the summer.

When you make that kind of money your EXPECTED to produce in difficult situations, that's why they make so much more than th average player.

Babcock isn't telling them "dont wory about scoring" even if they are expected to shadow Bergeron
 

Beyonder91

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Come back when you bother to read my posts, because I have not even made them scoring more the central point of my argument.

I've read all your posts. Here are your points:

1 )Our top line needs to do more than just hang on for dear life
2) Bad underlying metrics
3) Aren't scoring with their other half of the time not against the Bergeron line
4) Mitch Marner has been on for 11 goals against in Total

_____________________________________________________________________

1) Our top line IS doing exactly what they are supposed to be doing. They are a shutdown line against the Bergeron line and are only -1 head to head over the series. The Bergeron line has only scored 5on5 in one game against them. Would you say the Bergeron line has been terrible too?

2) I'm still waiting for you to show these underlying metrics

3) Bergeron line vs Tavares line: Game 1: 75.33% Game 2: 20.41% Game 3: 84.38% Game 4: 84.21% Game 5: 49.09% Game 6: 90.63%
Where exactly are you getting they aren't playing against Bergeron half the time? That's a ridiculous notion

4) Mitch Marner also plays in all situations including the penalty. He has 60.1% defensive starts in the series and is up against the best faceoff man in the league so he is starting from behind more often than not. He also has a team on-ice sv% of 85.3% which is atrocious and obviously will rise over the long run. He has a CF% 47 which actually isn't that bad considering he is going up against the best line in the league and Bergeron has been killing it on faceoffs.

Now let's move to 5on5:

This stat alone tells you all you need to know. I honestly don't even need to post anything else. Marner has 67% 5on5 defensive zone starts in the series. He is playing the majority of 5on5 against Bergeron who is the best faceoff guy in the league and has been dominating this series in the dot overall. You do the math...
 
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Beyonder91

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5on5

Tavares: 67% defensive zone starts
Matthews: 47% defensive zone starts
Nylander: 36% defensive zone starts

Is it any wonder the Tavares line is having a tough time generating 5on5 offence when they are starting in their zone 2/3 of the time?

Do people still want to tell me they aren't playing a shutdown role?
 

Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
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5on5

Tavares: 67% defensive zone starts
Matthews: 47% defensive zone starts
Nylander: 36% defensive zone starts

Is it any wonder the Tavares line is having a tough time generating 5on5 offence when they are starting in their zone 2/3 of the time?

Do people still want to tell me they aren't playing a shutdown role?

Nobody here is claiming their defensive play has been bad - but the idea that a "shut down" line should be suddenly absolved of not producing any offense is absolute nonsense, especially considering there are TWO recent 90 point players on it
 
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Beyonder91

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Nobody here is claiming their defensive play has been bad - but the idea that a "shut down" line should be suddenly absolved of not producing any offense is absolute nonsense, especially considering there are TWO recent 90 point players on it

I feel really dumb asking this question but it seems I need to. I don't know how else to respond to your post. LOL

Do you think they are 90 point players with 67% defensive zone starts playing ~75% of the time against Bergeron (4x Selke winner etc...) all year?

Here's a clue... Tavares only started 48.6% of his shifts in the defensive zone during the regular season. He also wasn't playing against the best faceoff man and 4x Selke trophy winning center every game.

Hopefully this will turn on a light bulb for you... if not let me know and I can add a few more questions.
 

socko

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Their usage isn't easy. But there's no escaping the reality that JT is the second highest paid player in the league - and Marner will be one of highest paid by the summer.

When you make that kind of money your EXPECTED to produce in difficult situations, that's why they make so much more than th average player.

Babcock isn't telling them "dont wory about scoring" even if they are expected to shadow Bergeron
Money doesn't make you better. JT is maybe a $9 million dollar player IMO, but his salary of $11 isn't obscene considering he's a first line center and UFA. Marner will most likely be heavily overpaid, if he wants to be. He has Dubas.
 

Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
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I feel really dumb asking this question but it seems I need to. I don't know how else to respond to your post. LOL

Do you think they are 90 point players with 67% defensive zone starts playing ~75% of the time against Bergeron (4x Selke winner etc...) all year?

Here's a clue... Tavares only started 48.6% of his shifts in the defensive zone during the regular season. He also wasn't playing against the best faceoff man and 4x Selke trophy winning center every game.

Hopefully this will turn on a light bulb for you... if not let me know and I can add a few more questions.

If 2/3 of a team's top offensive players aren't producing, you're going to have a hard time winning games. No amount of obnoxious condescension from you can change that fact.
 

Beyonder91

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Oct 13, 2006
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Why should I waste my time?

Players have produced against his line throughout the season: he's a great player but he's not a superman.

You should waste your time because you keep referencing their regular season numbers like that should translate to a playoff series battle. Two completely different scenarios... hence the fact Tavares is now starting in the defensive zone 66% of the time. How do you expect him to produce 5on5 when he is starting in his zone against the best faceoff man and defensive player in the league the majority of the time?

The fact is the Bergeron line has only scored in 1 game so far so Tavares is doing his job. If you think Babcock expects him to outproduce Bergeron you are greatly mistaken. If that was the case he would be giving him more offensive tools to work with. Muzzin/Zaitsev aren't offering any offensive support. They are out there for one reason: DEFENCE. Why did Rielly only play 8% of the game against Bergeron and Tavares played 90% last game? If Babcock was looking for offence from Tavares he would be giving them Rielly.

This is a chess game and Tavares line has been given the role of defence. The sooner you realize that the sooner you can accept that the line is doing well.

If you want to question Babcock's coaching that is another whole subject... and completely fair. Also, they need to be better on the power play.
 

Dragao6

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Dec 25, 2013
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Neither is the Bergeron line 5on5. Their line has only been on for three 5on5 goals (all in game 4) against Tavares line. See what I did there?
You don't see anybody talking about that because they have been producing on the power play.
Fair enough

Just thought kapanen can play the same role marner is with tavares if the concern is only to go against Bergeron line defensively
 
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Beyonder91

RASMUS
Oct 13, 2006
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Fair enough

Just thought kapanen can play the same role marner is with tavares if the concern is only to go against Bergeron line defensively

That is a potential option... not sure if Babcock is going to switch anything as the Bergeron line is being kept at bay 5on5.

I didn't realize just how much the scales are tipped in Bergeron's favour until I saw the underlying zone starts. Bergeron is starting 66.2% of 5on5 shifts in the offensive zone and Tavares is starting 66.7% in the defensive zone. Tavares is also given Zaitsev/Muzzin to play with on the back end. Neither guy is known for being great puck movers especially at being able to skate the puck out of trouble like Rielly can do.

Yet people are complaining they aren't producing enough? These same people just look at the point totals without a clue of what is happening. They are not being put in a situation to succeed offensively. Not in the least... If Babcock wanted them to succeed offensively he would be giving them more offensive zone starts and more offensive help on the backend and not being obsessed with matching them up against the best line in the league. The conditions honestly don't get much worse for production than they have been given.
 
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supsens

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That is a potential option... not sure if Babcock is going to switch anything as the Bergeron line is being kept at bay 5on5.

I didn't realize just how much the scales are tipped in Bergeron's favour until I saw the underlying zone starts. Bergeron is starting 66.2% of 5on5 shifts in the offensive zone and Tavares is starting 66.7% in the defensive zone. Tavares is also given Zaitsev/Muzzin to play with on the back end. Neither guy is known for being great puck movers especially at being able to skate the puck out of trouble like Rielly can do.

Yet people are complaining they aren't producing enough? These same people just look at the point totals without a clue of what is happening. They are not being put in a situation to succeed offensively. Not in the least... If Babcock wanted them to succeed offensively he would be giving them more offensive zone starts and more offensive help on the backend and not being obsessed with matching them up against the best line in the league. The conditions honestly don't get much worse for production than they have been given.

If your money player is producing nothing he is failing big time, one empty net goal is pretty bad. If you look at all face offs combined he starts in the nutral zone and offensive zone more then the D zone so he should have some chances. 60%-40%
I am sure you like the guy and all that but he needs to score once or twice in a series.
On the bright side he's due
 
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Nithoniniel

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This stat alone tells you all you need to know. I honestly don't even need to post anything else. Marner has 67% 5on5 defensive zone starts in the series. He is playing the majority of 5on5 against Bergeron who is the best faceoff guy in the league and has been dominating this series in the dot overall. You do the math...
I have done the math. The effect of faceoffs at the large scale is rather minor. Given what we know about how quickly the effects of a faceoff dissipates and considering the faceoff percentage of Tavares, that equals out to a rather inconsequential advantage. A 67% dzs/ozs spread has a bigger effect, but based on the effect of the different shift types (DZ, NZ, OZ, OTF), what you describe amounts to a 2% shift in CF%, less in other measures. Now for the underlying metrics. That line boasts 45% in CF%, less in FF%, even less in SF%. That's abysmal.

Edit: I'm actually going to withdraw this point. Their xGF% is actually more than fine, and it's the best measurement. So let's strike the claim that they are on their heels, they are doing quite fine against the Bergeron line.

3) Solid point in your favor. However, that still means that in the rest of their playing time against other lines, they have been leaking. And that matters too, not just how they do against the Bergeron line. We can expect them to put up a fight and nothing more against Bergeron, but that line should own the Boston mid six. It's been the other way around.

4) We should table the discussion on Marner. He's not on topic here, and I don't want to spend the time bickering about how bad he's been.

Do you think they are 90 point players with 67% defensive zone starts playing ~75% of the time against Bergeron (4x Selke winner etc...) all year?
They are also not expected to be 90 point players in those minutes. They are expected to be better than 27 point and 14 point players. You exaggerate the effects of the contextual numbers as well.

Edit: You know, this is not fair either. Can't judge their even strength production in the series against all production in the regular season.

But hey, you've done a decent job of convincing me. I'd still say that you lean too much on contextual numbers and tend to ignore everything but the Bergeron matchup, but it's a solid case here. See what happens when you focus on your arguments rather than insulting people?
 
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67Leafs67

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The series started out with this line having a clear role - shut down the Bruins' top unit. They have done that well, keeping that line to limited goals, and even shots and chances at 5v5.

But things have changed, and unsurprisingly Babcock has not. The Bruins shifted their lines a few games back, and threw Pastrnak on the 2nd line. I can understand not adjusting to that, as Matthews has still been able to handle that boosted Krejci line, and downgrading to Heinen is nothing the Leafs cannot handle.

But this is the problem. With Kadri, the strategy was simple...negate the effect of their first line, and outscore them from lines 2-4. Without Kadri, suddenly our 3rd line absolute crap (I'm sorry, but Marleau is absolutely done, and Brown is a tertiary third line player at best), no matter how well Nylander plays.

So, the role of these players is suddenly no longer just to shut down, but they actually need to do what they did in Game 1, and score some goals, and actually outplay the Bruins' unit of Marchand - Bergeron - Heinen. That's my opinion. One way they might be able to do this is by giving JT & Marner extra shifts against weaker competition. That might be really helpful.
 
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