Player Discussion: Brandon Tanev

[garret9]

Yep, because third pairing calibre d-men pot 36 points.

The hate on Myers is ridic.

Well... technically ya... his overall impact can be 3rd pairing despite scoring 36 points. That is possible. Speaking theoretically.

 

[garret9]

You praise Trouba but Myers had more points in the regular season and playoffs and played all 82 games.

Yes fancy stats but fancy stats dont win you hockey championships.. Scoring more than the other team does.. Myers was better than Trouba in the playoffs.. And unlike Trouba, likely wants to be here.

The whole point to fancy stats is that they are the best way to determine who helps you score more goals than the other team than points or other pre-fancy stats stats...

 

[kittiecarlyle]

Of course he has value. I don't think anyone is saying otherwise.

The problem is that he was exposed defensively by stronger opposition playing 2nd pair. He is better than a #5 but not up to a #4, in my estimation. But he will be paid like a #3.

I don't see a path to take with him that I am happy with. I don't want to let him walk. I don't want to sign him 5x5+. That leaves trading him now. Last season will have inflated his trade value so it is selling high. But I'm really not happy with that either. We still need him, especially with the continued uncertainty about Trouba.

If we had a replacement RHD in a Trouba trade, I would move Myers now. I don't really expect that to happen though. So, I expect Chevy to extend Myers for too long and too much. Unfortunately.

That you don't see a path to take that you would be happy with is telling.

Signing him now does nothing to the cap this season, nothing. It doesn't have to 5x5 but if it is it impacts the Jets in no way this year.

Having him signed at some point before he becomes a UFA gives the Jets more control and options and flexibility. I prefer that. You manage better from having that. I know I would rather have a signed Myers I could trade next summer than have him be a UFA, I also would not be opposed to having him signed and keeping him if circumstances made that the better avenue to go down. If he's signed, chances are you have multiple times you can move him to your advantage. Narrow thinking limits what you see.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That you don't see a path to take that you would be happy with is telling.

Signing him now does nothing to the cap this season, nothing. It doesn't have to 5x5 but if it is it impacts the Jets in no way this year.

Having him signed at some point before he becomes a UFA gives the Jets more control and options and flexibility. I prefer that. You manage better from having that. I know I would rather have a signed Myers I could trade next summer than have him be a UFA, I also would not be opposed to having him signed and keeping him if circumstances made that the better avenue to go down. If he's signed, chances are you have multiple times you can move him to your advantage. Narrow thinking limits what you see.

This year is not the only year. I think 5x5+, (don't ignore the +) is about what it would take. You might get him for 4 years, maybe. I don't think the AAV goes below 5 if signing him now. Can't say if you wait. Depending on how next season goes that number could move either way.

If you could get him without excessive trade restrictions there are possibilities there. My worry is that he would not live up to that contract next year and he would be hard to trade as a result. It might be a reasonable risk though. Can he put together b2b healthy seasons? Does he continue to get PP time to keep his scoring up?

I think signing him is risky. But it is probably the best option. Still, I repeat my original statement - don't over-commit.

 

[1stDan]

Trouba could be gone, Buff is aging & once the options become Poolman, Nogier, Green, Kovacevic, Cederhom, Gawanke & Glover. (who will be dropped in 23 days)

Isn't Myers a significant improvement over what's coming up in the system?

I really like Poolman.

He would be a full time guy on a lot of teams.

Hell he would be first or second pair on the Oilers.

 

[DashingDane]

Yay Tanev!! Great signing.

I don't think Myers will ever bring a better return than this off season.

 

[kittiecarlyle]

This year is not the only year. I think 5x5+, (don't ignore the +) is about what it would take. You might get him for 4 years, maybe. I don't think the AAV goes below 5 if signing him now. Can't say if you wait. Depending on how next season goes that number could move either way.

If you could get him without excessive trade restrictions there are possibilities there. My worry is that he would not live up to that contract next year and he would be hard to trade as a result. It might be a reasonable risk though. Can he put together b2b healthy seasons? Does he continue to get PP time to keep his scoring up?

I think signing him is risky. But it is probably the best option. Still, I repeat my original statement - don't over-commit.

Bottom line, I don't expect a season less than last year. Considering the challenges he had going into last year expecting at least a repeat level is pretty safe imo.

You think you can't trade him now for a first and a plus? I absolutely do. Every signing is a risk in some form but in this case it is more if you think he will get injured or there are health, body related concerns. I don't over worry those.

Signing him is not the dilemma you portray it as. No reason to not protect yourself, your asset and ensure you have options. Of course you don't over commit, that isn't happening in a way that limits you trading him or if you retain him it cripples you cap wise, that is not happening. You previously stated signing him would be a panic move, that of course is not accurate. You manage as required and provide yourself the best options you can.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Bottom line, I don't expect a season less than last year. Considering the challenges he had going into last year expecting at least a repeat level is pretty safe imo.

You think you can't trade him now for a first and a plus? I absolutely do. Every signing is a risk in some form but in this case it is more if you think he will get injured or there are health, body related concerns. I don't over worry those.

Signing him is not the dilemma you portray it as. No reason to not protect yourself, your asset and ensure you have options. Of course you don't over commit, that isn't happening in a way that limits you trading him or if you retain him it cripples you cap wise, that is not happening. You previously stated signing him would be a panic move, that of course is not accurate. You manage as required and provide yourself the best options you can.

I think his history makes him a greater risk than most. I'm not convinced that he can stay healthy. Of course, I don't know that he won't either. Either Trouba or Morrissey could cut into his PP time. That will cut into his scoring totals. Nice for you that you are able to be so optimistic. I am not.

Pretty sure he could have been traded for a 1st at the draft - maybe a +. At next year's draft? Depends on his upcoming season.

If he is signed 5x5+, and given strong trade protection it is over-committing. What makes your suggested approach attractive is the opportunity to trade him later. That kind of a contract would severely restrict that option. If he is signed before this season, I believe it will take something in that range to get him.

I previously stated that rushing out and signing Myers as the very first response to Trouba's arb award would be a panic move. I stand by that.

 

[kittiecarlyle]

I think his history makes him a greater risk than most. I'm not convinced that he can stay healthy. Of course, I don't know that he won't either. Either Trouba or Morrissey could cut into his PP time. That will cut into his scoring totals. Nice for you that you are able to be so optimistic. I am not.

Pretty sure he could have been traded for a 1st at the draft - maybe a +. At next year's draft? Depends on his upcoming season.

If he is signed 5x5+, and given strong trade protection it is over-committing. What makes your suggested approach attractive is the opportunity to trade him later. That kind of a contract would severely restrict that option. If he is signed before this season, I believe it will take something in that range to get him.

I previously stated that rushing out and signing Myers as the very first response to Trouba's arb award would be a panic move. I stand by that.

First the Jets weren't going to panic and they haven't. Resigning Myers today or later still would not be a panic move.

Trading him at the draft would have returned something for sure, not likely that the return would help this season. It is obvious ( and correct ) that the Jets want to compete with as strong a roster as they can this season. Retaining Myers allows that. The Jets will not give him a NMC if he is resigned, they will give themselves the flexibility that is desired.

Signing him would be viewed by many here as a bad move, it should not be though. All it does it set the team up for managing an asset down the road and in no way hurts them this season. You get him for the year and you get him for longer if you want or you get to trade him for a pretty significant return. Not complicated nor is it a negative.

 

[garret9]

Well... technically ya... his overall impact can be 3rd pairing despite scoring 36 points. That is possible. Speaking theoretically.

GOALS ABOVE REPLACEMENT (/82 GP for some key guys)
Morrissey 10.4 (10.5)
Trouba 9.6 (14.3)
Byfuglien 6.9 (8.2)
Enstrom 4.4 (8.4)
Kulikuv 1.9
Chiarot 1.7
Morrow 1.5
Myers 0.2
Poolman -0.2

So ya, does look like you can score 36 points and still give a 3rd pairing impact.


Tanev had a GAR of 6.4, FYI...
(forwards tend to have higher GAR than defenders except at the extremes)

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

First the Jets weren't going to panic and they haven't. Resigning Myers today or later still would not be a panic move.

Trading him at the draft would have returned something for sure, not likely that the return would help this season. It is obvious ( and correct ) that the Jets want to compete with as strong a roster as they can this season. Retaining Myers allows that. The Jets will not give him a NMC if he is resigned, they will give themselves the flexibility that is desired.

Signing him would be viewed by many here as a bad move, it should not be though. All it does it set the team up for managing an asset down the road and in no way hurts them this season. You get him for the year and you get him for longer if you want or you get to trade him for a pretty significant return. Not complicated nor is it a negative.

Please drop the panic move argument. We have circled around that at least twice.

If they panicked and signed Myers, it would be a panic move. If they didn't, it wouldn't be. FFS!

You don't know whether they will give Myers trade protection or not. You absolutely do . not . know . that. You don't know if he would accept a contract without it.

If they sign him to a good contract, it is a positive. If they sign him to a bad contract, it is a negative.

 

[DJBiffWPG]

It's up to Chevy but out of loyalty they will offer Myers a contract. Maybe $2.5 million. He should take it.

Loyalty contracts are how teams get in trouble.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Loyalty contracts are how teams get in trouble.

If the loyalty offer is only 2.5 mil we don't get in trouble. He won't take it. If he would, we should jump at it. He has his warts but he is a bargain at 2.5.

 

[DJBiffWPG]

If the loyalty offer is only 2.5 mil we don't get in trouble. He won't take it. If he would, we should jump at it. He has his warts but he is a bargain at 2.5.

Not on the third pair he’s not. He’s a third pair guy.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not on the third pair he’s not. He’s a third pair guy.

He is a premium 3rd pair guy. Easily worth 2.5, just not the 5x5 he is likely to get.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Tanev just gets no respect. Even in his signing thread, all the talk is about Myers.

 

[cbcwpg]

“Obviously, it’s nice to get the deal finished up and done with and then you can focus on your training,” Tanev said in a telephone interview from Toronto on Monday morning. “We were confident on both sides and there was a mutual agreement that we wanted to get this done before (Wednesday’s scheduled arbitration hearing). Both sides were happy with one year. I’m happy to be back. Last year was a very special year for the team, going as far as we did. You want to be in the same position we were in last year (as a contender).

 

[DuckyChuck]

GOALS ABOVE REPLACEMENT (/82 GP for some key guys)
Morrissey 10.4 (10.5)
Trouba 9.6 (14.3)
Byfuglien 6.9 (8.2)
Enstrom 4.4 (8.4)
Kulikuv 1.9
Chiarot 1.7
Morrow 1.5
Myers 0.2
Poolman -0.2

So ya, does look like you can score 36 points and still give a 3rd pairing impact.


Tanev had a GAR of 6.4, FYI...
(forwards tend to have higher GAR than defenders except at the extremes)

Advanced stats like this are hard to wrap your head around sometimes. From my understanding (and I'm nowhere near an expert) most of GAR is heavily weighted towards estimates and then it spits out a weird number. How does Trouba have 14.3 goals above replacement when he's never put up more than 10? And only put up 3 last year??

Maybe it needs a name change or a refresh, Points Above Replacement. I'm not against the idea of having a 'defining number' but this one doesn't make intuitive sense to me.

 

[Robinson2187]

Tanev just gets no respect. Even in his signing thread, all the talk is about Myers.

WOOHOOO)! Another year of the waterbug. GO RUSTY!!






Seriously I like it.

 

[Weezeric]

Crazy to think Tanev scored at a 24 point pace last year with zero powerplay time.

 

[irunthepeg]

Brandon "Hat Trick" Tanev. Worth it.

 

[garret9]

Advanced stats like this are hard to wrap your head around sometimes. From my understanding (and I'm nowhere near an expert) most of GAR is heavily weighted towards estimates and then it spits out a weird number. How does Trouba have 14.3 goals above replacement when he's never put up more than 10? And only put up 3 last year??

Maybe it needs a name change or a refresh, Points Above Replacement. I'm not against the idea of having a 'defining number' but this one doesn't make intuitive sense to me.

It’s not about how many goals a player scored but how much they improve a team’s goal differential if that makes sense. Preventing goals matters just as much as scoring them, which matters as much as having your linemates score more than if they were without you.

We then translate this into wins (WAR) or points (point share).

The reason why GAR is because goals are fairly consistent but wins can vary more. In other words, the number of goals drawing 10 more penalties than you take is fairly consistent but the number of goals to equal a win above average in the standings can change year to year.

 

[DashingDane]

Does anyone know if there is a place to check out the whole teams WAR? I would really like to see how our forwards did as well!

 

[garret9]

Does anyone know if there is a place to check out the whole teams WAR? I would really like to see how our forwards did as well!

EvolvingWild has a WAR. Corsica does as well on their site.

Just remember that GAR is a sum of estimates, so there should be considered some inherent confidence intervals.
Aka if they have similar GAR the one that is slightly lower could definitely actually had the larger impact.
It’s better to think of it in tiers than precise measurements.

 

[DashingDane]

EvolvingWild has a WAR. Corsica does as well on their site.

Just remember that GAR is a sum of estimates, so there should be considered some inherent confidence intervals.
Aka if they have similar GAR the one that is slightly lower could definitely actually had the larger impact.
It’s better to think of it in tiers than precise measurements.

Thanks!