Prospect Info: Tampa Bay Lightning prospect rankings 2017- #5

[Five Alarm Fire]

I went with Koekkoek due to pedigree and circumstances. We're approaching year 6 after drafting him, but two of those development years were lost due to injury. He was stellar in the 2016 playoffs but we really didn't have a spot for him last year. He'll get a real opportunity next season.

I wouldn't mind Raddysh here, but I still have my own personal reservations about his skating. Like many others I'm cautious about my optimism about Dotchin.

 

[Steazy Doo]

Koekkoek was good. Not spectacular, just solid. Dotchin was getting burned quite a bit. Didn't look like someone who just spent half a season on the top pair.

Koekkoek got burned a lot when he played this year in the NHL, more then Dotchin. For a guy who's biggest strength is supposed to be his skating, he constantly put himself in vulnerable spots, which makes me question his decision making all together. He also had trouble being behind guys in Syracuse until this season.

He's looked like AHL defender everytime he's been here, and had a maybe a solid 5 game stretch in the playoffs last year. He only averaged 10 minutes a night, so it's odd when people say he was one of our best defenceman in the playoffs, when i reality he didn't play enough for a distinction like that. You can say Hedman carries Dotchin all you want, but Koekkoek can't play the lower matchups, Dotchin at least showed he could handle some of it.

I have no problem with putting Dotchin in front of Koekkoek, I'm not voting for either as of yet. They did compete for a 7th D callup when Witkowski was playing.

 

[Steazy Doo]

I went with Koekkoek due to pedigree and circumstances. We're approaching year 6 after drafting him, but two of those development years were lost due to injury. He was stellar in the 2016 playoffs but we really didn't have a spot for him last year. He'll get a real opportunity next season.

I wouldn't mind Raddysh here, but I still have my own personal reservations about his skating. Like many others I'm cautious about my optimism about Dotchin.

I'm not trying to hate on Slater, but he averaged 10 minutes a night and only 10 games. We must have different definitions of the word stellar. He was very solid, and it was the first time he looked like he belonged, but he barely played.

I think I can confidently say that at no point in his career, has Koekkoek looked like a better NHLer then Dotchin. It can obviously change, but most of the criticisms of Dotchin here can be applied to Koekkoek as well. I don't really care if Dotchin "needs" Hedman, playing with such skilled players takes a certain kind of skill in itself.

 

[Sky04]

Koekkoek got burned a lot when he played this year in the NHL, more then Dotchin. For a guy who's biggest strength is supposed to be his skating, he constantly put himself in vulnerable spots, which makes me question his decision making all together. He also had trouble being behind guys in Syracuse until this season.

Lack of defensive IQ? Certainly not a lack of physical tools. He was constantly lost in the D-zone last year and struggled with positioning, that's scary for a guy who's been developed slowly for those purposes and is going on as a 6th year pro. Even at the AHL level he should've been learning these things.

For a guy who wasn't/isn't known for his offense, the bright spot in his game at the NHL level has been puck carrying and his plays in the offensive zone. Not sure if that's a bad or good when talking about his overall game.

 

[Steazy Doo]

Lack of defensive IQ? Certainly not a lack of physical tools. He was constantly lost in the D-zone last year and struggled with positioning, that's scary for a guy who's been developed slowly for those purposes and is going on as a 6th year pro. Even at the AHL level he should've been learning these things.

For a guy who wasn't/isn't known for his offense, the bright spot in his game at the NHL level has been puck carrying and his plays in the offensive zone. Not sure if that's a bad or good when talking about his overall game.

Well the offensive zone stuff is good, but it won't be enough to keep him here, especially since the culture shift, and like you said, he's "supposed" to be more well-rounded. I hope he gets it together this year, I think he has it in him.

Hell, even Dotchin showed some good offensive zone ability, which probably surprised a lot of us. Macho Man made a good post about Dotchin in the last poll, sums up what I think of him. I don' think voting for Dotchin over Koekkoek is a stretch at all.

While I adore your schtick and have said so many times, you are also good at speaking truth to power sometimes. But I think us Dotchin-ites are getting a bit misrepresented here. I (personally) don't think he's a top 4 Dman in the NHL right now. Maybe he develops into that stay at home #3, Hjalmarsson type, but he probably doesn't. He's probably always going to be a guy that can't carry a pairing, but can support a better player on a pair. If he's a guy you can slot into any three pairings with a better player (and let's remember he's a righty - so that means he gets to slot with our better Dmen/Prospects), that allows us as a team a ton of flexibility. We saw it last year. Suddenly we were able to split up Hedman and Stralman, which improved our defensive game by a ton.

So ranking prospects kind of gets tricky then. Is he going to be a better *player* than some of these guys (Raddysh, Erne, Howden)? Probably not. They have more skill, more talent, and certainly more upside. Is he going to be a more important part of our team? Jury is still out, but I would take the RD who can play on any pairing over a middle-six winger, for instance.

It's not easy to "do no harm" at the NHL level. We kind of throw that out disparagingly at guys like Dotchin. But "do no harm" for a 23 year old Dmen playing 20 minutes a night is pretty ****ing impressive to me. So at the end of the day, I may overvalue him - there's an element of judgment and taste to this - but I also think the detractors are getting a little carried away with trying to contextualize his performance.

Here's that post, well said

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

I'm not trying to hate on Slater, but he averaged 10 minutes a night and only 10 games. We must have different definitions of the word stellar. He was very solid, and it was the first time he looked like he belonged, but he barely played.

I think I can confidently say that at no point in his career, has Koekkoek looked like a better NHLer then Dotchin. It can obviously change, but most of the criticisms of Dotchin here can be applied to Koekkoek as well. I don't really care if Dotchin "needs" Hedman, playing with such skilled players takes a certain kind of skill in itself.

He was given a limited role and did everything we needed from him, while looking promising in the minutes he was given. Stellar probably wasn't the right word to use. Your second paragraph is technically correct, but samples aren't comparable given situation/roles. We won't have enough information until next season. It's fair to say that Koekkoek was considered a better prospect than Dotchin up until this past season. My vote is purely based on perceived potential.

 

[MrClutch86]

Next 5:
Raddysh
Dotchin
Joseph
Cernak
Koekkoek/Stephens

 

[Rschmitz]

I'm not sure why Dotchin is getting soapboxed, I don't think anyone is trying to sell him as something he's not. That doesn't make him a bad prospect though, he's still proven to have an effective style of play and plays his role perfectly, which is a lot more than most.

I think it's clear that there is more emphasis on size on the right side and mobility on the left side

 

[The Macho King]

Next 5:
Raddysh
Dotchin
Joseph
Cernak
Koekkoek/Stephens

I would take Laprizov over Koekkoek right now. I hope I'm wrong, but in the back of my mind I can't help but think this is the last year of him in the org.

 

[MrClutch86]

I would take Laprizov over Koekkoek right now. I hope I'm wrong, but in the back of my mind I can't help but think this is the last year of him in the org.

Lipanov? You're right actually, I skipped over him when making my list. As I said before I was very impressed in dev camp, and I like Russian players and think he has great tools to be a draft steal.
I'd probably slide him in at 5 as well.
Raddysh
Dotchin
Joseph
Cernak
Lipanov
Koko
Stephens

 

[Rschmitz]

Erne being criminally underrated

 

[HoseEmDown]

Joseph should be where Cirelli is. I love Cirelli as he just keep impressing every time I see him, I just don't think he has the offensive upside of a few of the other forwards behind him. Maybe you think his two way game and hustle make up for that but the ones behind him gave that too. Joseph, Stephens and Katchouk can match Cirelli on two way play and energy and I see Joseph and Katchouk as 20 goal scorers, Cirelli and Stephens 15-20 with Cirelli getting the edge being a center.

I guess it's nice having some good depth in prospects so every spot is a fight to see who wins.

 

[The Macho King]

Erne being criminally underrated

Probably - he's pretty safe although I'm not sure about his upside at this date. Does he have 50 point potential still? Eh.... maybe. He played well in his time up despite having trash linemates, so I am excited about him.

It's just tough to rank a guy like him right now. He's definitely the closest to the show, but would anyone be surprised if Raddysh (for instance) showed more than him? Personally, I think he's below Howden and probably Raddysh for forwards, but probably equivalent to Cirelli (who I think is a very safe pick as well and has a hell of a motor).

 

[TampaJay]

I don't know where you get that from. I checked a few GDTs from his first games and Dotchin wasn't on the first pairing in any of them. Obviously they could be mistaken but he wasn't paired with Hedman right off the bat, I'm pretty sure about that.

There are some myths on here about Dotchin. He did not get called up due to injuries. Hedman had the flu but there were no injuries. He got called up for a cup of coffee after Koekkoek got sent down and he stuck. This site lets you pick each game and see who was paired with whom for what percentage of the game:
https://leftwinglock.com/line-combi...ampa-bay-lightning&strength=EV&gametype=20698

Dotchin was a healthy scratch until Garrison was out for two games. Here are Dotchin’s first 6 games and his partners and percentage of time.

1-21: Hedman 12.17%, Stralman 10%
1-24: Coburn 22.12%, Hedman 7.96%
1-26: Hedman 40.21%
1-31: Hedman 35.65%
2-2: Hedman 33.16%, Garrison 10.16%
2-4: Hedman 34.13%

They tried him briefly with Coburn and then he basically stayed with Hedman for the rest of the season with some other partners sprinkled in. And even though KK and Dotchin play different sides, they were in competition because Coburn plays both sides. When KK got sent down, and Dotchin came up, Coburn switched from playing the right side with KK and others, back to the left side paired mostly with Stralman. So Dotchin essentially beat out Witko, Nesty (he was still there) and Koekkoek, and yes, one of the main reasons was that he paired well with Hedman and allowed the top 4 to be balanced.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

baby hippo is a good one

 

[Rschmitz]

Probably - he's pretty safe although I'm not sure about his upside at this date. Does he have 50 point potential still? Eh.... maybe. He played well in his time up despite having trash linemates, so I am excited about him.

It's just tough to rank a guy like him right now. He's definitely the closest to the show, but would anyone be surprised if Raddysh (for instance) showed more than him? Personally, I think he's below Howden and probably Raddysh for forwards, but probably equivalent to Cirelli (who I think is a very safe pick as well and has a hell of a motor).

Even if Raddysh is arguably the better prospect depending on how we are scoring them, Erne with zero votes is what is puzzling to me.

A ~.7 ppg clip in the Cuse last year and several successful training camps has impressed upon me that he's a safe-ish bet to put up Killorn-esque numbers because he's a puck hog without skating question marks. I'd argue that he's already a better player than Killorn in the offensive third of the ice. Comparing him directly to Raddysh, Taylor needs to either improve upon his skating, or play more north-south and less perimeter in order to be effective. If he does, I think he should be the better long term bet.

 

[TampaJay]

I'm not sure why Dotchin is getting soapboxed, I don't think anyone is trying to sell him as something he's not. That doesn't make him a bad prospect though, he's still proven to have an effective style of play and plays his role perfectly, which is a lot more than most.

I think it's clear that there is more emphasis on size on the right side and mobility on the left side

These rankings always have an inherent conflict between who is better now and who has the higher ceiling. Dotchin is not an actual #2, but like Methot with Karlson, he can fill that role as a complimentary player. Just like Vlady is not a top line winger, but when you have your two top scorers on one line he fits with them. Those types of complimentary players allow you to spread the talent pool and provide more balance and depth. So Foote has the higher ceiling long term but Dotchin is the better prospect now with what he does to the lineup. What criterion are we supposed to use?

 

[TeslaCoilFan]

Even if Raddysh is arguably the better prospect depending on how we are scoring them, Erne with zero votes is what is puzzling to me.

A ~.7 ppg clip in the Cuse last year and several successful training camps has impressed upon me that he's a safe-ish bet to put up Killorn-esque numbers because he's a puck hog without skating question marks. I'd argue that he's already a better player than Killorn in the offensive third of the ice. Comparing him directly to Raddysh, Taylor needs to either improve upon his skating, or play more north-south and less perimeter in order to be effective. If he does, I think he should be the better long term bet.

Honestly, I'd kinda forgotten about Erne. Which is a shame since, as you said, he's being doing really well. Puck hog is a good descriptor for him though I do also like baby hippo. He can move really well and did show himself to be quite tenacious with the puck. Not easy to knock him off it. I might just go for him next round due to his most current performance.

I know my impression of Raddysh is only based on the one dev camp I saw him at, so I'm probably selling him short, but his skating wasn't nearly as impressive as the others in his draft class or any of the Russian skaters. Yeah, he had a pretty decent 3v3 tournament, but, of his draft class, Howden was actually more impressive to me.

 

[Rschmitz]

These rankings always have an inherent conflict between who is better now and who has the higher ceiling. Dotchin is not an actual #2, but like Methot with Karlson, he can fill that role as a complimentary player. Just like Vlady is not a top line winger, but when you have your two top scorers on one line he fits with them. Those types of complimentary players allow you to spread the talent pool and provide more balance and depth. So Foote has the higher ceiling long term but Dotchin is the better prospect now with what he does to the lineup. What criterion are we supposed to use?

Agreed

 

[MattM92]

Good points above by a few of y'all. I'm not trying to argue Koekkoek over Dotchin. I'm trying to argue that Dotchin does not belong in the top 5 prospects. And Dom is a lunatic thinking he is our 2nd best prospect.

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

The problem I have with a conflict between now and the future is that we can vote on the future...in the future. It's not like this is the last time we're going to vote on these guys--hell, we can vote again in 6 months.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Good points above by a few of y'all. I'm not trying to argue Koekkoek over Dotchin. I'm trying to argue that Dotchin does not belong in the top 5 prospects. And Dom is a lunatic thinking he is our 2nd best prospect.

This. Is Jake Dotchin is your 2nd best prospect or in the top 5 your pool sucks, ours doesn't suck. If Dotchin was 19 or 20 when he did what he did last year maybe you can make that argument, he was 23, there's not much growth left for him. His skating has improved since junior but it's still very weak for the NHL and will keep him from being anything more than a sidekick.