Taking a Defenceman 1st overall (or at least top 3)
- Thread starter oilsands
- Start date
Did anybody take an actual systematic look at the record according to some meaningful methodology, or is everybody just shooting off on the basis of vague and untested assumptions as usual? 
There is apparently a small school of thought (well, Rutherford really) in the NHL who believes you don't draft defensemen in the first round.
There is apparently a small school of thought (well, Rutherford really) in the NHL who believes you don't draft defensemen in the first round.
i loledDid anybody take an actual systematic look at the record according to some meaningful methodology, or is everybody just shooting off on the basis of vague and untested assumptions as usual?
There is apparently a small school of thought (well, Rutherford really) in the NHL who believes you don't draft defensemen in the first round.
Courtest Mr. Bugg, Dmen taken in the top 2:
1996: Chris Phillips, Andrei Zyuzin
1997: None
1998: None
1999: None
2000: None
2001: None
2002: None
2003: None
2004: None
2005: None
2006: Erik Johnson
2007: None
2008: Drew Doughty
2009: Victor Hedman
2010: None
Courtesy Oilphan, the top Dman picks in the last 5 years:
Erik Gudbranson 3
Victor Hedman - 2
Oliver Ekman-Larsson - 6
Drew Doughty -2
Zach Bogosian - 3
Alex Pietrangelo - 4
Thomas Hickey - 4
Karl Alzner - 5
Erik Johnson - 1
Jack Johnson - 3
Cam Barker - 3
Jay Bouwmeester - 3
Joni Pitkanen - 4
Rostislav Klesla - 4
I have bolded the players who have not covered their draft bets (have not turned out well enough to merit their selection rank). I've left out the younger guys because it's too early.
BenchBrawl
Registered User
- Jul 26, 2010
- 30,880
- 13,671
Defence drafted in the top 3 in the last 20 years
91 -3rd Scott Niedermayer
92 1st Roman Hamrlik, 3rd Mike Rathje
93 2nd Chris Pronger
94 1st Ed Jovanovski, 2nd Oleg Tverdovsky
95 1st Bryan Berard , 2nd Wade Redden, 3rd Aki-Petteri Berg
96 1st Chris Phillips, 2nd Andrei Zyuzin
97 none
98 3rd Brad Stuart
99 none
00 none
01 none
02 3rd Jay Bouwmeester
03 none
04 3rd Cam Barker
05 3rd Jack Johnson
06 1st Erik Johnson
07 none
08 2nd Drew Doughty, 3rd Zach Bogosian
09 2nd Victor Hedman
10 3rd Erik Gudbranson
There are a few things worth mentioning some very bad forwards were also taken top three in some of these drafts. Almost never do these draft picks have an immediate impact so dont pick defence if you are impatient but most have had a good career and show promise. Third dont ever draft high because of "athleticism" because they will never look like a great pick unless they have lots of skill.
91 -3rd Scott Niedermayer
92 1st Roman Hamrlik, 3rd Mike Rathje
93 2nd Chris Pronger
94 1st Ed Jovanovski, 2nd Oleg Tverdovsky
95 1st Bryan Berard , 2nd Wade Redden, 3rd Aki-Petteri Berg
96 1st Chris Phillips, 2nd Andrei Zyuzin
97 none
98 3rd Brad Stuart
99 none
00 none
01 none
02 3rd Jay Bouwmeester
03 none
04 3rd Cam Barker
05 3rd Jack Johnson
06 1st Erik Johnson
07 none
08 2nd Drew Doughty, 3rd Zach Bogosian
09 2nd Victor Hedman
10 3rd Erik Gudbranson
There are a few things worth mentioning some very bad forwards were also taken top three in some of these drafts. Almost never do these draft picks have an immediate impact so dont pick defence if you are impatient but most have had a good career and show promise. Third dont ever draft high because of "athleticism" because they will never look like a great pick unless they have lots of skill.
I think it all comes down to expectation....
Are you expecting a Drew Doughty or would you be fine with a big minute shut-down guy.
Defensman take longer to develop.....but Chris Pronger turned out pretty good going 2nd overall.
Are you expecting a Drew Doughty or would you be fine with a big minute shut-down guy.
Defensman take longer to develop.....but Chris Pronger turned out pretty good going 2nd overall.
Defensemen in the top 3 since 1990:
S Niedermayer
R Hamrlik
M Rathje
C Pronger
E Jovanovski
O Tverdovsky
B Berard
W Redden
AP Berg
C Phillips
A Zyuzin
B Stuart
J Bouwmeester
C Barker
J Johnson
E Johnson
D Doughty
Z Bogosian
V Hedman
E Gudbranson
Not too shabby, results-wise.
However......
11 different players have won the Norris Trophy since 1990. Only two of them (Niedermayer and Pronger) were top 3 selections. There were actually more who weren't 1st round picks at all (five players), while four (Bourque, MacInnis, Coffey, Leetch) were 1st rounders, but not in the top 3.
By contrast, 6 out of the 11 players who've won the Art Ross Trophy since 1990 (including the last five) were top 3 picks. Additionally, I suppose you'd have to assume that Gretzky would have been a top 3 selection if he had entered the league through the draft.
Hardly more than a small start, wish I had time for more. Maybe someone else, or is there something worthwhile in that Oilers thread?
S Niedermayer
R Hamrlik
M Rathje
C Pronger
E Jovanovski
O Tverdovsky
B Berard
W Redden
AP Berg
C Phillips
A Zyuzin
B Stuart
J Bouwmeester
C Barker
J Johnson
E Johnson
D Doughty
Z Bogosian
V Hedman
E Gudbranson
Not too shabby, results-wise.
However......
11 different players have won the Norris Trophy since 1990. Only two of them (Niedermayer and Pronger) were top 3 selections. There were actually more who weren't 1st round picks at all (five players), while four (Bourque, MacInnis, Coffey, Leetch) were 1st rounders, but not in the top 3.
By contrast, 6 out of the 11 players who've won the Art Ross Trophy since 1990 (including the last five) were top 3 picks. Additionally, I suppose you'd have to assume that Gretzky would have been a top 3 selection if he had entered the league through the draft.
Hardly more than a small start, wish I had time for more. Maybe someone else, or is there something worthwhile in that Oilers thread?
Cut out everything before 2005. Dmen take so long to develop....
Bolded are the good picks. Underlined are the questionable ones.
5 Good picks
9 Bad picks
66% strike-out chance.
Keep in mind Larsson is a quality defensemen in one of the best mens leagues in the world. How easy would the CHL be for him at 18 years old? Easier than it was for Doughty? Guarantee it'd be a hole lot easier for him than Gudbranson.
I find it interesting how many people have marked Chris Phillips as a failed first selection. Look at how bad the draft was that year Sure Kaberle, Kubina and Salo were drafted later but only 6 or 7 good players came out of that draft. Briere is the best player from that draft at this point of time.
Don't agree with many of those decisions. What better options were there than Phillips or Hamrlik at the top end of the 92 and 96 drafts? Few or none. Both were good selections. Even Rathje was a decent pick. Berard was a good selection too - he won the Calder Trophy before injuries destroyed his career (eye injury killed his vision).
wickedwitch
Registered User
- Mar 21, 2010
- 1,215
- 39
trentmccleary
Registered User
1) What was your justification for highlighting Jovanovski, Redden and Bouwmeester... but not Hamrlik?
2) At times; Rathje, Phillips, Tverdovsky and Berard were considered amongst the best at their respective dimensions. Add in a good solid all-round like Brad Stuart ... and how many forwards drafted in the top-3 became 50-ish point forwards or less? Is that value comparative of these D-men?
I'd bet a car and a house that Larsson won't be the best defenseman to come out of this draft in 8 years.
This appears rather to be defensemen drafted in the top 5 since 2000. Ironically, Mr. Oilphan has left out Ryan Whitney.
gifted88
Dante the poet
DaveG
Noted Jerk
Did anybody take an actual systematic look at the record according to some meaningful methodology, or is everybody just shooting off on the basis of vague and untested assumptions as usual?
There is apparently a small school of thought (well, Rutherford really) in the NHL who believes you don't draft defensemen in the first round.
I'm not sure that's entirely true, though I know that JR does prefer forwards in the first round when all other things are equal. That said, in 06 the team was debating Johnson and Marc Staal both as options at #3. 08, when it was assumed they were going to take a forward by everyone (including myself) it broke late that the guy they were really after at their spot was Teubert. LA snagged him right before they got the chance.
Biggest reason he's cited in the past is that he believes dmen take longer to be NHL ready then forwards more often then not. Not sure if that's true or not but it definitely reflects his drafting style.
1- Jovo, Redden, and Bouw were either multiple all-stars or dominant (top 5 in their position) for consecutive years. While Hamrlik is a great player (1200 games), as a #1 pick he should have at least garnered Norris nods for a few years to merit his high selection.
2- You are right, we have to compare to the forward class. Sure those picks were considered best of their draft class, but the proof is in results. High draft rankings need to be proven. If I had more time, I'd like to analyze top 3 Dman selections versus top 3 forward selections from 1990-2005. Maybe later.
Qvist - you are right, it's alll about the relative comparisons.
Last edited:
enthropi
Registered User
I'm pretty sure scouts look at the players themselves, specifically, not some probability mombo jumbo voodoo based on previous years as if it was a complete lottery draw...
Skrudland2Lomakin
Registered User
- Jan 1, 2011
- 7,681
- 5,671
How has Alzner not covered his draft bet? He's only 22, on what is maybe the most defensively strong pairing on the team, would easily make the short list for best defenseman rookies right now, has been quiet and consistent, etc. It would seem to me that the sky is the limit with him.
I like how you do say though judgment is out on some guys who are too young, simply because they were drafted 4-5 years ago does not make them old. How many guys enter this league at 18? A good number, defenseman is just a position that calls for physical maturity as well as mental. A lot of forwards can get by on their skill while still maturing physically, I think you'll be hard pressed to find a defenseman who can do that.
I don't think defenseman are a poor draft investment, I simply think for impatient fans they are, they take longer to cultivate IMO. Even when they're in the league their potential might not be realized for a few years.
I like how you do say though judgment is out on some guys who are too young, simply because they were drafted 4-5 years ago does not make them old. How many guys enter this league at 18? A good number, defenseman is just a position that calls for physical maturity as well as mental. A lot of forwards can get by on their skill while still maturing physically, I think you'll be hard pressed to find a defenseman who can do that.
I don't think defenseman are a poor draft investment, I simply think for impatient fans they are, they take longer to cultivate IMO. Even when they're in the league their potential might not be realized for a few years.
Looking at the complete record, I don't know you can pick Chara ahead of Phillips. Chara was a non factor for so long.
Argh, lost a lengthy draft into cyberspace.
But the gist of it was this:
If you divvy up the the top 3 selected forwards and defensemen 1990-2005 into those who had a high impact in the NHL and those who didn't, you don't seem to get very different results for forwards and defensemen. After cutting out 4 players who were sort of in-between (Dumont, Horton, Rathje, Stuart), I was left with 21 out of 28 forwards with a high impact, and 9 out of 13 defensemen - practically identical.
But the gist of it was this:
If you divvy up the the top 3 selected forwards and defensemen 1990-2005 into those who had a high impact in the NHL and those who didn't, you don't seem to get very different results for forwards and defensemen. After cutting out 4 players who were sort of in-between (Dumont, Horton, Rathje, Stuart), I was left with 21 out of 28 forwards with a high impact, and 9 out of 13 defensemen - practically identical.
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