Speculation: Summer 2019 pending UFAs/RFAs

[LadyStanley]

Are the NHL's pending UFAs finally seeing the money?

Yahoo Sports looks at the crop of (first eligible) UFAs and how Tavares may have started an exodus of players to other teams.

Even with the acknowledgement that a number of these guys will probably re-sign with their current teams before July 1, next summer’s UFA class could be something the likes of which we have just never seen in hockey. Off the top of my head, guys whose contracts expire next summer include Sergei Bobrovsky, Artemi Panarin, Erik Karlsson, Matt Duchene, Mark Stone, Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin, Jeff Skinner, Jordan Eberle, and probably a few more that I’m forgetting.

If even half of them hit the free agent market, that’s a lot of top guys in their mid-to-late 20s who will be looking for a lot of money next summer (and hoping the salary cap jumps as much as it did this year). I can’t imagine we’ve seen a single summer in the cap era in which so many borderline elite guys would go to market at the same time. And that doesn’t even count the number of players who are maybe a step or two below that level but who would, under normal circumstances, have commanded a pretty good-sized pay increase.

Sharks pending UFAs include Thornton, Pavelski, Donskoi, Sorenson, Heed, Tim Clifton, Radil Lukas.

Wondering how this will impact guys deciding to re-sign with Sharks or testing the UFA waters.

Click to read more...

 

[LadyStanley]

San Jose Sharks - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Sharks have 17 pending RFAs. Looks like only Joakim Ryan and Barclay Goodrow have arbitration rights.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Add the best defenseman in the world to the list of pending UFAs.

This upcoming summer is going to be cap hell.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Add the best defenseman in the world to the list of pending UFAs.

This upcoming summer is going to be cap hell.

There will be some hard choices but if guys like Meier and Labanc solidify themselves and improve, it makes it easier to let go of some pending free agents. Meier and Labanc could spell the end of Pavelski and Donskoi's time here especially if wingers come up through the system and earn themselves an opportunity next year.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Add the best defenseman in the world to the list of pending UFAs.

This upcoming summer is going to be cap hell.

You should go and buy a lottery ticket.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

There will be some hard choices but if guys like Meier and Labanc solidify themselves and improve, it makes it easier to let go of some pending free agents. Meier and Labanc could spell the end of Pavelski and Donskoi's time here especially if wingers come up through the system and earn themselves an opportunity next year.

Yeah, as long as Karlsson stays, I’m not worried about what happens with the rest.

You should go and buy a lottery ticket.

Not sure what you mean by this?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Yeah, as long as Karlsson stays, I’m not worried about what happens with the rest.

Agreed. I'm not as convinced as some that he will re-sign. Hoping for the best but expecting the worst. The direction this team goes completely hinges on DW's ability to convince Karlsson to stay. Karlsson and Burns are a duo that can be built around even with potentially a quarter of the cap dedicated to them. But if he walks, this team is in trouble after this season. To such an extent that I don't know what DW could do to keep the team competitive especially with the cost of recent acquisitions.

 

[Barrie22]

Agreed. I'm not as convinced as some that he will re-sign. Hoping for the best but expecting the worst. The direction this team goes completely hinges on DW's ability to convince Karlsson to stay. Karlsson and Burns are a duo that can be built around even with potentially a quarter of the cap dedicated to them. But if he walks, this team is in trouble after this season. To such an extent that I don't know what DW could do to keep the team competitive especially with the cost of recent acquisitions.

If he walks and this comes true then we all better hope these are the best 100+ games in sharks hockey history.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Okay, so, just looking at CapFriendly scenarios next year for us with Erik Karlsson ...

Assuming we sign Erik Karlsson at $13M/8Y, and trade Melker Karlsson, Brenden Dillon, and Justin Braun for futures, and replace Dillon/Braun with Mario Ferraro and Ryan Merkley , we will have $20M in cap space+whatever the salary cap increases by to sign 1 defenseman and 9 forwards for a 12 forward, 6D, 2G roster. We will have the following players on their way to free agency:

Pavelski, LaBanc, Donskoi, Meier, Thornton, Ryan, Gambrell, Sorensen, Suomela, Radil, Goodrow, Praplan, Heed, Letunov.

Let’s say we sign Gambrell, Goodrow, and Sorensen at $1M each. Theoretically, one of them probably loses their spot to one of our Euros or prospects who get that $1M instead, but for the sake of simplicity, let’s say those guys get the contracts and the Europeans (besides Suomela) don’t stick. Then let’s say we sign Joe Thornton to that $1M contract we’ve been speculating about for a while. That would leave us with $16M in cap space+whatever the cap rises by to fill out our 1RW, 2RW, 3LW, 3C, 3RW, and 2LD. Those positions are currently taken by the following players, who would all be on their way to RFA/UFA:

Pavelski:
Donskoi:
Meier:
LaBanc:
Suomela:
Ryan:

I’m curious to see everybody’s estimates on what those players will potentially see on their next contract. I think we could be headed to cap hell, depending on how those 6 players perform in this upcoming season. Realistically, the cap goes up by about $2M and we have $3M per player to sign each of these guys. Meier, LaBanc, Ryan, and Suomela can probably get bridged at that price even if they have strong years; Suomela at perhaps a lower figure.

The most logical solution is merely to let Pavelski walk in the off-season. He is the oldest of the bunch, he will be the most expensive, and he is the closest to a decline while the rest are all still improving. But he is still very important to the team; he was our MVP just last season.

TL;DR: Keeping Karlsson won’t send us into true cap hell unless Meier, LaBanc, Suomela, Ryan, Donskoi, or Pavelski have insane contract years. But it will probably lead to us losing Dillon, Melker, Braun, and at least one of the 6 players listed above.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Okay, so, just looking at CapFriendly scenarios next year for us with Erik Karlsson ...

Assuming we sign Erik Karlsson at $13M/8Y, and trade Melker Karlsson, Brenden Dillon, and Justin Braun for futures, and replace Dillon/Braun with Mario Ferraro and Ryan Merkley , we will have $20M in cap space+whatever the salary cap increases by to sign 1 defenseman and 9 forwards for a 12 forward, 6D, 2G roster. We will have the following players on their way to free agency:

Pavelski, LaBanc, Donskoi, Meier, Thornton, Ryan, Gambrell, Sorensen, Suomela, Radil, Goodrow, Praplan, Heed, Letunov.

Let’s say we sign Gambrell, Goodrow, and Sorensen at $1M each. Theoretically, one of them probably loses their spot to one of our Euros or prospects who get that $1M instead, but for the sake of simplicity, let’s say those guys get the contracts and the Europeans (besides Suomela) don’t stick. Then let’s say we sign Joe Thornton to that $1M contract we’ve been speculating about for a while. That would leave us with $16M in cap space+whatever the cap rises by to fill out our 1RW, 2RW, 3LW, 3C, 3RW, and 2LD. Those positions are currently taken by the following players, who would all be on their way to RFA/UFA:

Pavelski:
Donskoi:
Meier:
LaBanc:
Suomela:
Ryan:

I’m curious to see everybody’s estimates on what those players will potentially see on their next contract. I think we could be headed to cap hell, depending on how those 6 players perform in this upcoming season. Realistically, the cap goes up by about $2M and we have $3M per player to sign each of these guys. Meier, LaBanc, Ryan, and Suomela can probably get bridged at that price even if they have strong years; Suomela at perhaps a lower figure.

The most logical solution is merely to let Pavelski walk in the off-season. He is the oldest of the bunch, he will be the most expensive, and he is the closest to a decline while the rest are all still improving. But he is still very important to the team; he was our MVP just last season.

TL;DR: Keeping Karlsson won’t send us into true cap hell unless Meier, LaBanc, Suomela, Ryan, Donskoi, or Pavelski have insane contract years. But it will probably lead to us losing Dillon, Melker, Braun, and at least one of the 6 players listed above.

If EK signs with the Sharks it'll be for $11mil per or less. DW has proven over the years to be able to get super stars to take less so he can fill out the rest of the roster. Jumbo, Marleau, Boyle, Burns, etc all prove this fact. All could have gotten more if they tested UFA. Also, I still believe Pavs takes $6mil or less or they may even let him walk. If they want to keep him I think they have to move Classic. Braun is gone pretty much no matter what either this season or next off season. Dell will get traded if he has a great year too. I don't see them moving burns even though he may be easier since he now has a home in Texas. We'll see though. I have very little doubt that EK65 signs with the Sharks.

 

[LadyStanley]

Fantasy Hockey

EK65 and rest of team fantasy value rises after trade

 

[Juxtaposer]

DW has proven over the years to be able to get super stars to take less so he can fill out the rest of the roster. Jumbo, Marleau, Boyle, Burns, etc all prove this fact. All could have gotten more if they tested UFA.

Vlasic, Couture, Jones, and Kane say otherwise...

 

[Agent Zub]

I think you guys have a very good chance of re-signing Karlsson. Not only do you guys have a team that seems fun to be part of but Karlsson is an extremely loyal guy. He's not stupid with the loyalty but i think with all the shit he has gone through he will love being a Shark.

You guys are the contenders to sign EK now. This could be the biggest heist in NHL history.

 

[Hinterland]

Vlasic, Couture, Jones, and Kane say otherwise...

Pretty sure Jones could have gotten more elsewhere but I agree that Wilson had developed a weird tendency to throw stupid money/term/clauses at players to get them to sign. He's also gonna throw too much at Karlsson...I can see it coming.

 

[OrrNumber4]

If I am Karlsson, I surely want to feel out the area before signing anything. Then again, if Karlson is abundantly cautious, he may want to get a deal signed ASAP so he has security.

Vlasic, Couture, Jones, and Kane say otherwise...

It can be hard to peg the market value of these players since so few good players hit the market.

However, Vlasic definitely could have gotten a better deal elsewhere. Toronto would have thrown stupid money at Vlasic (and was a contending team), just as an example.

Kane and Couture signed for slightly more than what I would expect a contending team to pay.

Jones I think was a decent overpay, but the goaltending market is the hardest to predict, and the Sharks did extend him after he had two very solid playoff runs.

Another thing is that those contracts really do look better at time. People were grumbling about the Burns contract when it was signed, but now it looks like a bargain.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Vlasic, Couture, Jones, and Kane say otherwise...

I don't think that's right. Vlassic would have been a UFA this last summer. He would have gotten more, Couture likely would have as well as the others. Despite all the hate for Kane I have no doubt he could have gotten more per year. Frankly the way I think DW does it is saving a lot on top end players so he can afford the higher mid level (couture etc). Burns is a freaking bargain compared to the guys signing contracts now that are at the top of the scoring and Norris races. Karlsson and Doughty are going to be 10+ mil and Burns is getting 8? DW takes that as well as the Jumbo savings from previous years and applies it to these other contracts.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Pretty sure Jones could have gotten more elsewhere but I agree that Wilson had developed a weird tendency to throw stupid money/term/clauses at players to get them to sign. He's also gonna throw too much at Karlsson...I can see it coming.

Except it's not stupid term in this day and age. The players will only sign long term now. It's either sign them long term or trade them away like Ottawa. You either pay the players or ship them out. Can't force them when they are at the end of their previous contract. Karlsson is gong to get paid. Seriously, what is too much? Too many people have been saying for months that the cost to trade for Karlsson was going to be too high. I'm willing to wait to see the numbers before condemning DW.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

If Karlsson absolutely demands $15.9M then it is absolutely not too much. I’ve always said that franchise centers are the most important thing and that you can’t win without one but I’ve also always truly believed that if there is one way around that in the modern NHL, it’s building around Erik Karlsson and having a team that is strong outside of that #1 center position.

The discrepancy in pay should be much larger between NHL players than it currently is. McDavid should not be getting 2.4 times what Tom Wilson is paid. He should be paid like 10-15 times what Tom Wilson is paid.

I mean, we’re about to start paying Logan Couture $8M. You really think Karlsson doesn’t deserve at least twice as much money as Couture?

 

[one2gamble]

I think your point about pay discrepancy is correct and I haven't seen it brought up very much. That said, until you can "franchise" a player of which it doesn't impact the cap as much it's not going to happen. They need to ice to many people to have the pay spread that much.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I think your point about pay discrepancy is correct and I haven't seen it brought up very much. That said, until you can "franchise" a player of which it doesn't impact the cap as much it's not going to happen. They need to ice to many people to have the pay spread that much.

Teams choose to structure their salaries as they do for whatever reason. They are the ones who decide that Evander Kanes and Logan Coutures get paid even half as much as Connor McDavids. Sometimes things work out for them, sometimes they lose their own players due to cap hell and we hear about it, and sometimes they miss out on star players in UFA or trade because they don’t have the cap space, and we don’t even think about it. For example, Washington wasn’t in on John Tavares or Erik Karlsson, but they absolutely could have been, had they not spent $11M on TJ Oshie and Tom Wilson.

In a cap league, you don’t pinch pennies on Erik Karlsson types. You pay whatever it takes to acquire as many Erik Karlsson types as possible and you play moneyball with the remaining pieces. When you start to have cap troubles, you pinch pennies on the TJ Oshie and Tom Wilson types, or the Logan Couture and Evander Kane types. Not the Erik Karlsson types.

Think of it this way: Kane makes $7M and Couture makes $8M. Generously speaking, Karlsson gets $14M. We consistently can and do sign European UFAs like Suomela and Radil for $1M and we waive players like Nieto and Carpenter when they’re making $1M.

Would you rather pinch pennies on Erik Karlsson, keep Kane and Couture, and spend $16M on Kane, Couture, and DeMelo? Or would you rather pinch pennies on Kane and Couture and keep Karlsson, and spend $16M on Suomela, Radil, and Karlsson? For me, the choice is very, very easy.

 

[LadyStanley]

With $80m cap, max salary is $16m.

Most are saying he'll get ~Doherty $$ ($11mx8).

 

[Barrie22]

With $80m cap, max salary is $16m.

Most are saying he'll get ~Doherty $$ ($11mx8).

That would be a steal of a contract.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

If they sign Karlsson for 12 million for 8 years and are looking at an 82 mil cap, they're looking at 16 mil in cap dollars left with at least 9 forwards and 2 d-men needed. It'll be interesting to see the movement that would occur if that happens because it almost certainly spells the end for Melker Karlsson and probably one or both of Dillon and Braun. New deals would be needed for Meier, Labanc, Ryan, Goodrow, and any of the young guys who do make the roster. If we don't win the Cup, I could see Thornton re-signing for a mil plus bonuses. If we do win the Cup, who cares about any of this? lol

 

[Sharksrule04]

If Karlsson absolutely demands $15.9M then it is absolutely not too much. I’ve always said that franchise centers are the most important thing and that you can’t win without one but I’ve also always truly believed that if there is one way around that in the modern NHL, it’s building around Erik Karlsson and having a team that is strong outside of that #1 center position.

The discrepancy in pay should be much larger between NHL players than it currently is. McDavid should not be getting 2.4 times what Tom Wilson is paid. He should be paid like 10-15 times what Tom Wilson is paid.

I mean, we’re about to start paying Logan Couture $8M. You really think Karlsson doesn’t deserve at least twice as much money as Couture?

At least twice as much? No definitely not. How does one justify a statement like that when Couture produces like he does. Karlsson should get between 10M and 12M. Anything more is over-payment, anything less and we got a discount. I don't care how good he is, if you pay him too much, you basically risk not being able to ice a quality lineup due to cap restraints and then paying him that much is a waste.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

At least twice as much? No definitely not. How does one justify a statement like that when Couture produces like he does. Karlsson should get between 10M and 12M. Anything more is over-payment, anything less and we got a discount. I don't care how good he is, if you pay him too much, you basically risk not being able to ice a quality lineup due to cap restraints and then paying him that much is a waste.

Karlsson has a much, much larger impact on the game than Couture does.

To make things very very simple, Karlsson and a player making league minimum are far more valuable than two Logan Coutures.

You can absolutely ice a quality lineup with Karlsson making league maximum.