Speculation: Summer 2018 Roster Discussion Part III

[Maladroit]

Yeah I think Tarasenko is getting massively underrated. Last year was an off year for him and he still had 66 points in 80 games. He was 2nd in team scoring by 4 points. However, he has been carrying the Blues offense for a while now. Here are his point totals as opposed to the 2nd highest on the Blues for the last few years.

2014-15: 73 | 64
2015-16: 74 | 52
2016-17: 75 | 55

He is a game changer and can take over a game. He pretty much drives the Blues offense without being given any help on a offense starved team. Pavs may be many things but he is not a game changer.

Yeah Tarasenko is 2nd in the league in goals only to Ovechkin since 2014 and no one else on the Blues is even close, in goals or points. It's also just very obvious from watching Tarasenko the singular impact he has on offense. Pavelski is a fine player but he wouldn't be anywhere near as productive as he's been over the past five years or so without Thornton and Burns.

 

[STL Shark]

Yeah Tarasenko is 2nd in the league in goals only to Ovechkin since 2014 and no one else on the Blues is even close, in goals or points. It's also just very obvious from watching Tarasenko the singular impact he has on offense. Pavelski is a fine player but he wouldn't be anywhere near as productive as he's been over the past five years or so without Thornton and Burns.

Yep. I go to every Blues-Sharks game in STL and my heart drops every time Tarasenko touches the puck because of what he can do. It is a feeling that I don't think I would get as an opponent with Pavs touching the puck. The things he can do in the OZ are really fun to watch. I really hate the rest of the team, but Tarasenko is fun to watch especially in person. Hell, anyone that can score 40 goals on a line with Jori Lehtera is automatically elite in my book.

 

[Maladroit]

Yep. I go to every Blues-Sharks game in STL and my heart drops every time Tarasenko touches the puck because of what he can do. It is a feeling that I don't think I would get as an opponent with Pavs touching the puck. The things he can do in the OZ are really fun to watch. I really hate the rest of the team, but Tarasenko is fun to watch especially in person. Hell, anyone that can score 40 goals on a line with Jori Lehtera is automatically elite in my book.

The Lehtera thing is a great point. He was one of the worst players in the NHL on the Flyers last year. 8 points in 62 games. I'm pretty sure an AHL goon could put up better numbers than that. Tarasenko scored 40 goals with Lehtera as his center. It's just not even remotely comparable to Pavelski accomplishing that feat while attached at the hip to the greatest passer of all time and one of the greatest offensive defensemen of this era.

And like you said, just subjectively, Tarasenko is definitely in that McDavid/Kopitar/Malkin/Mackinnon class of players where you hold your breath when the puck is on their stick and they're playing the Sharks.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Tarasenko is getting insanely underrated in this thread. Has anyone comparing him to Joe Pavelski ever actually watched either of them play? There is no combination of players/prospects/picks off the Sharks that I wouldn't trade for Tarasenko.

The player who is being criminally underrated in this thread is Joe Pavelski. Sharks fans on this forum, myself included, have always underrated him because of the valid belief that he was likely to decline very soon. We all started doing that during and shortly after the 2013-2014 season where he scored 41 goals, but he was an elite superstar for 2 more seasons after that, and he is still a star, although more of a complimentary player at this stage of his career. He was literally the MVP on a 100 point team that made the playoffs this year. Over the past 5 years, he has had more points than Joe Thornton in 4 of them. The one year where Thornton out-scored him, he had a whopping 4 more points than Thornton. Even this year, in a year where Thornton was injured for half of it, and Pavelski had certainly declined, Pavelski was still our best player, and he still tied Tarasenko in points. Pavelski also had a Conn Smythe level run in 2016. 14 goals in 23 playoff games. Tarasenko has never been at that level. This fan base needs to show some damn respect to Joe Pavelski. He was one of the best right wingers in the NHL over a 5 year time frame, he was an elite superstar in his prime. He’s not anymore, but neither is Tarasenko.

And yes, I have watched Tarasenko play. I haven’t seen anything from him that makes me say “forget the 5 years of statistical volume that show Joe Pavelski is comparable or slightly better; I watch Tarasenko and he is an elite superstar on a completely different level from Joe Pavelski.”

And for the record, I’m not one to disregard such a massive plethora of evidence in favor of one conclusion because “I watch them” and I don’t agree with the conclusion that one easily comes to after analyzing the evidence. The only time I’ll do that is in a case with a player like Connor McDavid where I say “I don’t care what the stats say; this guy is obviously at another level from everybody else” or with a player like Dylan DeMelo where I say “I don’t care what the stats say; this guy is obviously terrible and does not belong in the NHL.” And there is a massive plethora of evidence to say that over the past 5 years and right now, Pavelski and Tarasenko have been comparable, and Pavelski has probably been slightly better. And I have not seen anything from Tarasenko in my admittedly limited viewings to say he is on another level from Pavelski.

 

[Maladroit]

The player who is being criminally underrated in this thread is Joe Pavelski. Sharks fans on this forum, myself included, have always underrated him because of the valid belief that he was likely to decline very soon. We all started doing that during and shortly after the 2013-2014 season where he scored 41 goals, but he was an elite superstar for 2 more seasons after that, and he is still a star, although more of a complimentary player at this stage of his career. He was literally the MVP on a 100 point team that made the playoffs this year. Over the past 5 years, he has had more points than Joe Thornton in 4 of them. The one year where Thornton out-scored him, he had a whopping 4 more points than Thornton. Even this year, in a year where Thornton was injured for half of it, and Pavelski had certainly declined, Pavelski was still our best player, and he still tied Tarasenko in points. Pavelski also had a Conn Smythe level run in 2016. 14 goals in 23 playoff games. Tarasenko has never been at that level. This fan base needs to show some damn respect to Joe Pavelski. He was one of the best right wingers in the NHL over a 5 year time frame, he was an elite superstar in his prime. He’s not anymore, but neither is Tarasenko.

And yes, I have watched Tarasenko play. I haven’t seen anything from him that makes me say “forget the 5 years of statistical volume that show Joe Pavelski is comparable or slightly better; I watch Tarasenko and he is an elite superstar on a completely different level from Joe Pavelski.”

And for the record, I’m not one to disregard such a massive plethora of evidence in favor of one conclusion because “I watch them” and I don’t agree with the conclusion that one easily comes to after analyzing the evidence. The only time I’ll do that is in a case with a player like Connor McDavid where I say “I don’t care what the stats say; this guy is obviously at another level from everybody else” or with a player like Dylan DeMelo where I say “I don’t care what the stats say; this guy is obviously terrible and does not belong in the NHL.” And there is a massive plethora of evidence to say that over the past 5 years and right now, Pavelski and Tarasenko have been comparable, and Pavelski has probably been slightly better. And I have not seen anything from Tarasenko in my admittedly limited viewings to say he is on another level from Pavelski.

Okay, never mind, the player who's actually being underrated here is Joe Thornton. I don't know how you can look at what Jumbo has done throughout his career to right-shot wingers from Glen Murray and Mike Knuble in Boston to Jonathan Cheechoo to Devin Setoguchi to (briefly) Brent Burns and then finally to Joe Pavelski and conclude that Pavelski's elite goal scoring levels are somehow his own doing and not him being the latest (and possibly last) massive beneficiary of Thornton's all-world vision and passing ability. It's just one big coincidence that Pavelski, at age 30, magically turned into an elite goal scorer at the exact same time he was moved up to Thornton's line.

Pavelski is a better player than Cheechoo and Setoguchi for sure, and has proven he can be an effective player away from Thornton, but the goal scoring wouldn't be there without Jumbo. If Pavelski had never been moved up to Thornton's wing someone else would have and that player would have scored those goals instead and you'd be here claiming he's somehow on the same level as Tarasenko who does this while centered by fourth line talent. The with or without you splits on Pavelski's career goal scoring rates when sharing the ice with Jumbo vs. not couldn't be more stark. He doesn't even belong in the same conversation as Tarasenko.

 

[Sysreq]

I don’t agree with the narrative that Pavelski is no longer a super star. I think he has simply had less to work with since the 2016 season. There is a huge difference between having Joe Thornton and Tomas Hertl next to you versus what we have seen since. Most of 2017 he was running along side Melker Karlsson. 2018 wasn’t much better until Kane showed up. I think it’s a testimate to the strength of both Joes that they have been able to elevate bottom-6 players like Karlsson and Labanc into legitimate 1st line stand ins. I think Kevin Labanc has real potential, but his skating and defensive play are still a work in progress. And Karlsson. There are a number of people who don’t even want him on the 4th line, much less the 1st! Timo and Donskoi are reasonably mid-6 players - but I would hardly consider them together a real 1st line. Props to Pavelski for being good enough to make that work. When we put him next to a guy like Kane, and he scores 30 points in the last 32 games of the season. Replace Donskoi with a healthy Joe Thornton, and there is no reason to think he won’t hit a point per game, 25+ goals next season. I think people need to put the team aspects of this sport into perspective.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Yeah I think Tarasenko is getting massively underrated. Last year was an off year for him and he still had 66 points in 80 games. He was 2nd in team scoring by 4 points. However, he has been carrying the Blues offense for a while now. Here are his point totals as opposed to the 2nd highest on the Blues for the last few years.

2014-15: 73 | 64
2015-16: 74 | 52
2016-17: 75 | 55

He is a game changer and can take over a game. He pretty much drives the Blues offense without being given any help on a offense starved team. Pavs may be many things but he is not a game changer.

What about this year when he had 66 points and his team’s leading scorer had 70 points?

Pavelski isn’t a game changer anymore and neither is Tarasenko. Both were in their prime. Tarasenko was miles ahead in 2016-2017 and Pavelski was miles ahead in 2013-2014. Outside of that, over the last 5 years, they’ve been comparable. In my opinion, Pavelski had a slightly better year this year than Tarasenko.

Okay, never mind, the player who's actually being underrated here is Joe Thornton. I don't know how you can look at what Jumbo has done throughout his career to right-shot wingers from Glen Murray and Mike Knuble in Boston to Jonathan Cheechoo to Devin Setoguchi to (briefly) Brent Burns and then finally to Joe Pavelski and conclude that Pavelski's elite goal scoring levels are somehow his own doing and not him being the latest (and possibly last) massive beneficiary of Thornton's all-world vision and passing ability. It's just one big coincidence that Pavelski, at age 30, magically turned into an elite goal scorer at the exact same time he was moved up to Thornton's line.

Pavelski is a better player than Cheechoo and Setoguchi for sure, and has proven he can be an effective player away from Thornton, but the goal scoring wouldn't be there without Jumbo. If Pavelski had never been moved up to Thornton's wing someone else would have and that player would have scored those goals instead and you'd be here claiming he's somehow on the same level as Tarasenko who does this while centered by fourth line talent. The with or without you splits on Pavelski's career goal scoring rates when sharing the ice with Jumbo vs. not couldn't be more stark. He doesn't even belong in the same conversation as Tarasenko.

Thornton had what, 30 more points than Cheechoo and without looking I’ll guess 30 more than Knuble? Meanwhile, he only scored more points than Pavelski in one of the 5 seasons where Pavelski was statistically superior to Tarasenko. It’s not the same effect. Pavelski does absolutely belong in the same conversation as Tarasenko. Right wing goal scorers who were elite superstars, top-5 in their position over a three year span, but are no longer at that level. Pavelski’s dominance started one year before Tarasenko’s did and he also declined one year before Tarasenko did but right now, both have declined, both just scored 66 points, and neither one is an elite superstar.

The more important discussion is this year anyway; not their careers. The initial suggestion was that St. Louis can contend, because they have a superstar in Tarasenko, but we cannot contend, because we do not have a player of that caliber. That is a ludicrous suggestion when Tarasenko isn’t a superstar caliber winger anymore.

I think that if you ask Blues fans, they will tell you that Tarasenko was not a superstar caliber winger this season. And they will tell you that over the 5 year span since 2013, Pavelski and Tarasenko have been comparable.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

What about this year when he had 66 points and his team’s leading scorer had 70 points?

Pavelski isn’t a game changer anymore and neither is Tarasenko. Both were in their prime. Tarasenko was miles ahead in 2016-2017 and Pavelski was miles ahead in 2013-2014. Outside of that, over the last 5 years, they’ve been comparable. In my opinion, Pavelski had a slightly better year this year than Tarasenko.



Thornton had what, 30 more points than Cheechoo and without looking I’ll guess 30 more than Knuble? Meanwhile, he only scored more points than Pavelski in one of the 5 seasons where Pavelski was statistically superior to Tarasenko. It’s not the same effect. Pavelski does absolutely belong in the same conversation as Tarasenko. Right wing goal scorers who were elite superstars, top-5 in their position over a three year span, but are no longer at that level. Pavelski’s dominance started one year before Tarasenko’s did and he also declined one year before Tarasenko did but right now, both have declined, both just scored 66 points, and neither one is an elite superstar

First thing. Tarasenko is 26. Pavs is 34.

Second thing, I mentioned about the 4 point difference already last year between Schenn (70 pts) and Tarasenko (66 pts). If you expect Tarasenko is 'past his prime' and not a game breaker anymore, nothing I can say to convince you otherwise.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I don't really care what you want to call Tarasenko or Pavelski. In my eyes, neither are true franchise guys that you build your team around. The Blues will only go as far as Ryan O'Reilly and Jake Allen will take them which is not likely past the second round. The Sharks have a better team than St. Louis even with only really swapping Boedker for Kane as their move. At this point, the Sharks should be looking to add an upgrade on DeMelo's spot. I'm not expecting Karlsson but Faulk seems like a reasonable get. And if that all fails then ride it out until something becomes available.

 

[rangerssharks414]

i dont actually watch hockey

I only look at boxscores and spreadsheets.

(Seriously though, I don't watch as much as I should.)

 

[Mattb124]

Tarasenko is getting insanely underrated in this thread. Has anyone comparing him to Joe Pavelski ever actually watched either of them play? There is no combination of players/prospects/picks off the Sharks that I wouldn't trade for Tarasenko.

Underated yes, but insanely underrated?

This is the same Tarasenko who was pointless in the playoff series vs. The Sharks a couple of years back until his team had already basically lost the elimination game.

 

[Maladroit]

Underated yes, but insanely underrated?

This is the same Tarasenko who was pointless in the playoff series vs. The Sharks a couple of years back until his team had already basically lost the elimination game.

We should definitely judge every player in the NHL by their worst five-game stretch.

 

[LA Shark]

Are we talking about strictly comparing Tarasenko and Pavs now or what? Cause go watch the 2016 series vs the Blues and tell me who the better player was...2 points to 9.

 

[STL Shark]

Are we talking about strictly comparing Tarasenko and Pavs now or what? Cause go watch the 2016 series vs the Blues and tell me who the better player was...2 points to 9.

So Filip Forsberg is no good then either because he had a bad series against SJ that playoff year too? Too much stock in hockey is put on insanely small sample sizes of playoffs. So much of production in a short series relates to puck luck. Additionally, half the players are so beat up and injured by that point that often times it is incredibly difficult to compare one to the other as you don't really know who is dealing with what. Would much rather judge on full seasons and multiple seasons as opposed to a brief 5-7 game series.

 

[Mattb124]

We should definitely judge every player in the NHL by their worst five-game stretch.

Tarasenko is a fantastic regular season player, but there are players who elevate their games in the POs and those who don't. He doesn't, and I don't think you win with guys like that as your offensive nexus.

 

[Sharksrule04]

I don’t agree with the narrative that Pavelski is no longer a super star. I think he has simply had less to work with since the 2016 season. There is a huge difference between having Joe Thornton and Tomas Hertl next to you versus what we have seen since. Most of 2017 he was running along side Melker Karlsson. 2018 wasn’t much better until Kane showed up. I think it’s a testimate to the strength of both Joes that they have been able to elevate bottom-6 players like Karlsson and Labanc into legitimate 1st line stand ins. I think Kevin Labanc has real potential, but his skating and defensive play are still a work in progress. And Karlsson. There are a number of people who don’t even want him on the 4th line, much less the 1st! Timo and Donskoi are reasonably mid-6 players - but I would hardly consider them together a real 1st line. Props to Pavelski for being good enough to make that work. When we put him next to a guy like Kane, and he scores 30 points in the last 32 games of the season. Replace Donskoi with a healthy Joe Thornton, and there is no reason to think he won’t hit a point per game, 25+ goals next season. I think people need to put the team aspects of this sport into perspective.

Pavelski with the puck any where outside of 15-20 feet from the goal is almost nauseating to watch. Pavelski thrives on having a good shot, being in the right place and being the single best deflector in the game. Comparing him to Tarasenko is just ridiculous because they are entirely different players. Tarasenko is far superior as a player who generates his own offense. Their production points wise is comparable but that doesn't mean Pavelski is on the same level as Tarasenko. I'd take Tarasenko any day over Pavs.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Tarasenko is a fantastic regular season player, but there are players who elevate their games in the POs and those who don't. He doesn't, and I don't think you win with guys like that as your offensive nexus.

As far as 'elevating' the game during playoffs is concerned, Pavs averages .75 PPG in the playoffs. Tarasenko has .73 PPG. Would you agree or disagree with the fact that Pavs has been paired with more offensive help than Tarasenko ever has? Tarasenko has carried a dismal Blues offense for the last few years. Pavs never had to carry our offense. He has had plenty of help in Burns, Jumbo and Patty.

 

[Maladroit]

Tarasenko is a fantastic regular season player, but there are players who elevate their games in the POs and those who don't. He doesn't, and I don't think you win with guys like that as your offensive nexus.

Over his career Tarasenko has scored at a 35 goal (per 82 games) pace in the regular season and a 41 goal pace in the playoffs. But sure he doesn't "elevate his game" in the playoffs because he didn't score until the final game of the only series you've ever watched him play.

 

[Mattb124]

As far as 'elevating' the game during playoffs is concerned, Pavs averages .75 PPG in the playoffs. Tarasenko has .73 PPG. Would you agree or disagree with the fact that Pavs has been paired with more offensive help than Tarasenko ever has? Tarasenko has carried a dismal Blues offense for the last few years. Pavs never had to carry our offense. He has had plenty of help in Burns, Jumbo and Patty.

Comparing different player's production to evaluate elevation or drop off is specious reasoning. Pav's RS production (.78 ppg) is lower than Tarasenko's (.83), but his PO production (.75) is higher than Tarasenko's .73. Tarasenko's production drops 10 bps And Pavs has very little (3 bps) decline vs RS. Burns and Couture show a slight increase in PO production (~ 3 bps).

When talking playoff production dropoff, Thornton may be the poster child. One could argue Pavs produces in the PO's despite Thornton.

 

[Mattb124]

From a more contemporary perspective, Pav's production this past season was both above historical average and remained flat from RS to PO's w/o Thornton at .80.

In 16/17, Tarasenko was .83 RS and .55 PO.

 

[LA Shark]

So Filip Forsberg is no good then either because he had a bad series against SJ that playoff year too? Too much stock in hockey is put on insanely small sample sizes of playoffs. So much of production in a short series relates to puck luck. Additionally, half the players are so beat up and injured by that point that often times it is incredibly difficult to compare one to the other as you don't really know who is dealing with what. Would much rather judge on full seasons and multiple seasons as opposed to a brief 5-7 game series.

Pavs had more points than Tarasenko during the regular season that year and the same amount of points as him this year. I'm not trying to say anything bad about Tarasenko, I think hes a great player. But i think Pavs is being criminally underrated here.

 

[SuperStarFerraro]

You guys are getting sidetracked... focus on the thread, who can this team go after to improve the roster... like we lost Boedker who was a 15-20 goal scorer the way he’s been playing, who will replace his production? We haven’t gotten better since Dylan f***ing DeMelo resigned our defence is going to be a lot worse... and yeah might not be much but we lost a Mikkel Boedker who was finally finding his game and played well both away and with the Puck. So question is what does Doug Wilson do? Thornton ain’t getting any younger, I’m pretty sure Wilson told him he will try to dress the best roster he can get for one more run for the cup... and the team I’m seeing right now on paper isn’t f***ing it.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Someone is sensitive. I wasn’t talking about SJ in regard to this conversation for the millionth time. We all agree the moves made by STL wouldn’t have been the right moves for the Sharks.

I am talking about why you’re insistent to say the Blues were stupid to make their time better. I spoke with the CFO of the team while my firm was doing some work for them this spring. I know that they had to make those moves because the fans demand it and they can’t afford to go on another prolonged stretch of sucking like they did for six years from the first lockout through 2011-12. They wanted to make a run at Tavares. Didn’t get a seat at the table and pivoted and made some very solid hockey trades and signings and are now a playoff team. Given they have too many good pieces to be able to reasonably tank, it was either make the team better and get playoff revenue, or finish 12-14th every year for the foreseeable future and still not get a star player. They chose the route that gets them an extra 10-20 million dollars a year and a better chance at winning a Cup in the next decade.

Okay, so, we clearly don’t all agree that the moves made by STL wouldn’t have been best for the Sharks. I might think that, and you might think that, and so we might agree there. But Kevin Kurz on Twitter made it pretty clear that it was a problem that the Blues made all of those additions, while we did nothing. My argument was that the moves we made (trading Boedker for a 2nd and doing nothing else) are better than the moves that STL made. At any rate, you’re basing your opinion on St. Louis’ decisions based off of inside information that you have, from a conversation that you had with the CFO. I obviously don’t have any insider information, and then you tell me that I have no business sense because my opinion differs from yours. The problem lies there.

Yes, if I was a GM that was going to get fired if their team missed the playoffs again, I would have done something similar to what St. Louis just did. Sure, no questions asked. But that’s not the case at all; I’m speaking purely in terms of a hockey perspective, and in that hockey perspective, what STL did is totally the opposite of what they should have done if they want to win a championship this decade. They spent ~20% of their cap for the next 3 years on Tyler Bozak, David Perron, and Ryan O’ Reilly. That’s terrible. It’s ugly from a hockey perspective. But yeah, it does make them more likely to make the playoffs in the very short term. And their GM probably does need to make the playoffs in the very short term in order to keep his job, so I guess from a selfish short term business perspective, it’s a good move. It’s not a good move from a business perspective as a whole though because the team would be more profitable long term if they tanked for ~3 years and then built a Stanley Cup Contender, as opposed to them ensuring they’ll be mediocre for a while. But short term, for the sake of the GM keeping his job, if his job security is largely tied to making the playoffs, then I suppose it’s a “good business move”.

I’m not on some business forum to talk about how mediocre hockey GMs can keep their jobs by ensuring their teams stay mediocre. I’m on a hockey forum here talking about how teams can win the Stanley Cup and it is my opinion that what the St. Louis Blues did in this off-season only pushed them further away from a Stanley Cup. If somebody disagrees, and wants to debate that, I’m totally cool with that. But don’t get on a hockey forum and tell me I have no business sense because my 100% hockey related opinion goes against the selfish desires of an executive that you know about because of some insider information that I don’t have.

 

[rangerssharks414]

I don't want them to make a move just for the sake of making a move. I don't think the needle got moved at all this offseason. Luckily for the Sharks, the rest of the division didn't get that much better.

 

[STL Shark]

You guys are getting sidetracked... focus on the thread, who can this team go after to improve the roster... like we lost Boedker who was a 15-20 goal scorer the way he’s been playing, who will replace his production? We haven’t gotten better since Dylan ****ing DeMelo resigned our defence is going to be a lot worse... and yeah might not be much but we lost a Mikkel Boedker who was finally finding his game and played well both away and with the Puck. So question is what does Doug Wilson do? Thornton ain’t getting any younger, I’m pretty sure Wilson told him he will try to dress the best roster he can get for one more run for the cup... and the team I’m seeing right now on paper isn’t ****ing it.

Boedker was replaced by a full season of Kane and a healthy Thornton basically. Even without Tavares, there was no room for Boedker in the top 9 as the roster currently stands with 9-19-8, 48-39-62, 28-50-27 as the projected lines.

I would expect Timo to up his scoring to something like 25-20-45 this year and Labanc to take a modest increase in scoring as well. Add in a healthy Donskoi and I am not at all worried about replacing Boedker's 15 goals. I still think there needs to be an upgrade to the forward group to contend, but that has nothing to do with Boedker's departure.