Stupid Small Sample: Coyotes Early Stats Are...Odd

[LeHab]

Stupid Small Sample

Here is your answer.

 

[42]

Small samples are always more notable at the beginning of the season. If they had a 4-game scoring slump mid-season, no one would be paying attention much.

 

[rt]

So, it's actually not a KPI.

Traditionally. Which is what makes this notable. That’s the point.








That’s your head.

 

[Ducks in a row]

Goal scoring is important so winning the corsi/fenwick battle means nothing if your team struggles to score. Scoring and goaltending > corsi/fenwick

 

[rt]

Small samples are always more notable at the beginning of the season. If they had a 4-game scoring slump mid-season, no one would be paying attention much.

For sure. But I can’t remeber a four game slump that didn’t also coincide with poor shots, attempts, etc ratios. Ofcourse, those stats are rarely isolated by themselves for just the span of the slump.

Maybe you’re on to something. Maybe this happens a handful of times a year but nobody notices. Definitely an interesting point. The only notable thing about it might just be that it’s from game 1.

Good post.

 

[HockeyFan100]

This is why corsi is bunch of bullshit

 

[GodEmperor]

Just in time to offersheet Matthews.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Score effects is partially true. The Dallas and Buffalo offense really all game toward the middle of the game. Shot differential widened after that of course, but was well in AZ favor prior to that. The discrepancy has been amplified by the score for sure but it was already a trend, I think.

Bad depth is definitely true.

It’s obviously a small enough sample to get something like this. But I thought it notable nonetheless given the emphasis generally placed on these kinds of counting stats.

Er, Buffalo scored ~30 seconds into that game. If we're crediting score effects, that's 59.5 minutes of the game Arizona was trailing.

 

[rt]

Goal scoring is important so winning the corsi/fenwick battle means nothing if your team struggles to score. Scoring and goaltending > corsi/fenwick

Haha. Sure. In telemarketing sales are more important than dials, talk time, email response rates, and CSATs.

Generally though, those things indicate a higher likelihood of more sales. Certainly, if you have a top earner who spends little time on customer outreach and gets negative feedback from customers, that’s a person you want to examine more closely. A real strange case.

 

[rt]

Er, Buffalo scored ~30 seconds into that game. If we're crediting score effects, that's 59.5 minutes of the game Arizona was trailing.

Thanks!

I may have already had a bit of bourbon by that point. Haha.

I actually picked the game up halfway through the 2nd because of a DVR fail.

I mistook the highlights last night. Too lazy to doublecheck today.

 

[Crede777]

I haven't seen any of their games this season. What is their shot quality like? Are they getting a good number in dangerous areas or are they putting up 40 shots from the halfwall?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The 2014-2015 and 2016-2017 Kings both led the league in CF% and were a top defensive team...and both teams missed the playoffs. So even if it's a small sample size, it can happen.

 

[MessierII]

It’s October. That means it’s time to hyper analyze ridiculously small sample sizes and draw incredibly premature conclusions. It’s an annual tradition.

So let’s look at Arizona.

Coyotes have such intriguing stats:

Shot Attempt Differential (Corsi): 4th in NHL (+78)

Unblocked Shot Attempt Differential (Fenwick): 4th in NHL (+45)

Shots Against per game: 2nd in NHL (23.3)

Shots For per game: 5th in NHL (36.5)

Faceoff Percentage: 5th in NHL (53.3)

Goals Against per game: 4th in NHL (2.25)

Looks good, right? No...

Goals For per game: 31st in NHL (0.50)

What in the actual ****?

The performance indicators are there. The performance is not. Are they going to explode offensively soon or are we looking at a new kind of outlier?

We’ve all seen terrible players with great fancy stats. Are we about to see a whole team that fits that bill?

Shot quality > shot quantity always has and always will. Corsi is insignificant. The Washington capitals were among the worst teams in the nhl last season in corsi but won the cup.

 

[rt]

I haven't seen any of their games this season. What is their shot quality like? Are they getting a good number in dangerous areas or are they putting up 40 shots from the halfwall?

Both.

 

[rt]

The 2014-2015 and 2016-2017 Kings both led the league in CF% and were a top defensive team...and both teams missed the playoffs. So even if it's a small sample size, it can happen.

Great post. Thank you!

 

[Royal Thunder]

Auston Matthews has more than three times as many goals as the Arizona Coyotes.

Five times as many actual goals. The coyotes 3rd 'goal' was a shootout win.

 

[Jets]

Auston Matthews has more than three times as many goals as the Arizona Coyotes.

There it is. Was looking for how this could become a Matthews thread.

 

[holy]

Auston Matthews is sucking his hometown team dry by use of witchcraft confirmed.

 

[Syckle78]

Auston Matthews has more than three times as many goals as the Arizona Coyotes.

Can I buy a shoehorn? Yours seem to work well.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I knew the Oilers were bad under Eakins but were they bad in this way?

Under Eakin's it was a different kind of worse. They outshot their opponents, but it was because the team was normally down 3, and the other team was in cruise control.

Actually what you're discribing now is what happened to the Oil last year. A ton of shots, fairly good at carrying the play, but nothing in the way of results

 

[M88K]

Who’s bragging? The Coyotes are awful. They outshot both the Stars and Sabres nearly 2:1, IIRC. They have no goals to show for either game. We’ve all seen games like this. But it’s been every game this season like this for Arizona. It’s strange.

Shot differential widened after that of course, but was well in AZ favor prior to that. The discrepancy has been amplified by the score for sure but it was already a trend, I think.

What game did you watch?
at the end of the 1st period shots were 10-8 in favor of Dallas
at the end of the 2nd tied 20-20(12-10 arizona for the period)
at the end of the game 30-25 in favor of Arizona(score effect of Dallas sitting back)

Where was this 2-1 advantage? And at what point before the game was put away did Arizona have shots "well in there favor?"

 

[Gsus]

The OP shows the value of goal scoring and goal scorers.

They have talent but I don't think they're (gonna be) quite as good as they've been marketed as from time to time.

 

[BodaciousBeefBazooka]

Coyotes should just pack up and relocate elsewhere.

 

[HaNotsri]

Chayka will raise an analytics banner at the end of the season.

 

[Strakanator]

I am not a coyotes fan, but I get tired of the Chayka jabs. The guy was given a pile of crap with a low-cap team. Almost every move he has made has been a positive one in the right direction and he has made a lot of moves.

It takes so much to turn a pile of crap into a good NHL team on a low-cap bottom feeder. They are consistently getting better under Chayka. He deserves the praise he gets from the board.