Proposal: STL/NYI Mega Sales Pitch (Tavares, Pietrangelo)

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Beninnola

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Mar 29, 2012
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After a lot of thought in the thread (value of) Malkin to STL, and a bunch of research, I believe I can convince both Blues and Islanders fans of a win-win proposal.

Also I really want to watch Tarasenko with an elite center.

And I'm never going to hide the fact that I look through Blue colored glasses.

I understand why you wouldn't want to move a tremendous top 5 1C. That's insane to even consider, right? I mean no disrespect, but only 2 teams have less points than the Islanders today. And on STLs side, we can't effectively match up because we have a giant void at center. We suck on the road when opposition controls matchups.

As such, a rapid rebuild may be worth considering for NYI, and I'm here to offer you a rapid rebuild.

STL would benefit from a focus fire of players in their prime today, and a well rounded top 6 for more effective 5v5 play, and I'm here to offer the Blues just that.

Please humor the following offer:

STL receives

Tavares, 5.5 AAV until 2018/19, most certainly resigned to 10/8+ in 2017
Nick Leddy, 5.5AAV until 2022/23

NYI receives

Alex Pietrangelo, 6.5 AAV until 2021, 26 yr/old
Jaden Schwartz, 5.5 AAV until 2022, 24 yr/old
4 1st round talents:
Tage Thompson - NHL effective within 3 years, big bodied center, NHL pedigree, whose improved since draft
Vince Dunn - NHL effective within 2 years, offensive defenseman who just began AHL career
2017 and 2018 1st round picks

The sales pitch to NYI fans:

This trade gives your team the ability to open wide a Stanley Cup window within 4 years and keep it open as long as GM doesn't poop the bed, and the NHL talent involved will be relevant for significant time afterwards. But this isn't a rebuild where you have to go full dumpster fire, as the combination of proven Quality and large Quantity of high quality prospects will start to open the playoff window as early as next year. By adding 4 first round prospects, combined with NYIs own higher picks, ownership has the chance to build an outstanding team that will remain relevant through the entirety of the 2020s, most likely getting their name on a cup.

The sales pitch to STL fans:

Lehtera can't play against the opposition's top lines. Tarasenko is in his prime. Sacrifice the future for a cup. Losing Pietrangelo would be awful, but Nick Leddy is not a tremendous step down, and acquiring a true #1C will always require a massive loss or a massive tank. This trade will create holes in line-up due to cap casualty, and probably force a rebuild later 2020s, but I'm ready for a damn cup. Are you? But that being said, the Blues have LW depth, Defensive depth, and the ability to move Shattenkirk at the deadline to adjust 5 year plan, so this is not like a doomsday fleecing of talent.

Bottom line is, we have a great talent in his prime who is on a team that is struggling and we have a team that has some great pieces which can be moved so a cup can be considered short term.

Ok, destroy me.
 

BobbyClarkeFan16

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Nov 29, 2005
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Goderich, Ontario
That's a pretty steep package St. Louis gives up. Forget about Pietrangelo and Schwartz. The fact that they give up Dunn, Thompson and two first round picks is overkill, especially when you consider that the difference between the packages isn't all that great (let's face it, Pietrangelo/Schwartz for Tavares/Leddy is a pretty much a wash). I just can't see the Blues sending away so much of their future.
 

boredmale

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Jul 13, 2005
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If Islanders end up with the #1 pick I would seriously think about a Tavares for Pietrangelo swap
 

Funk21

Registered User
Mar 6, 2013
4,335
1,856
Toronto
After a lot of thought in the thread (value of) Malkin to STL, and a bunch of research, I believe I can convince both Blues and Islanders fans of a win-win proposal.

Also I really want to watch Tarasenko with an elite center.

And I'm never going to hide the fact that I look through Blue colored glasses.

I understand why you wouldn't want to move a tremendous top 5 1C. That's insane to even consider, right? I mean no disrespect, but only 2 teams have less points than the Islanders today. And on STLs side, we can't effectively match up because we have a giant void at center. We suck on the road when opposition controls matchups.

As such, a rapid rebuild may be worth considering for NYI, and I'm here to offer you a rapid rebuild.

STL would benefit from a focus fire of players in their prime today, and a well rounded top 6 for more effective 5v5 play, and I'm here to offer the Blues just that.

Please humor the following offer:

STL receives

Tavares, 5.5 AAV until 2018/19, most certainly resigned to 10/8+ in 2017
Nick Leddy, 5.5AAV until 2022/23

NYI receives

Alex Pietrangelo, 6.5 AAV until 2021, 26 yr/old
Jaden Schwartz, 5.5 AAV until 2022, 24 yr/old
4 1st round talents:
Tage Thompson - NHL effective within 3 years, big bodied center, NHL pedigree, whose improved since draft
Vince Dunn - NHL effective within 2 years, offensive defenseman who just began AHL career
2017 and 2018 1st round picks

The sales pitch to NYI fans:

This trade gives your team the ability to open wide a Stanley Cup window within 4 years and keep it open as long as GM doesn't poop the bed, and the NHL talent involved will be relevant for significant time afterwards. But this isn't a rebuild where you have to go full dumpster fire, as the combination of proven Quality and large Quantity of high quality prospects will start to open the playoff window as early as next year. By adding 4 first round prospects, combined with NYIs own higher picks, ownership has the chance to build an outstanding team that will remain relevant through the entirety of the 2020s, most likely getting their name on a cup.

The sales pitch to STL fans:

Lehtera can't play against the opposition's top lines. Tarasenko is in his prime. Sacrifice the future for a cup. Losing Pietrangelo would be awful, but Nick Leddy is not a tremendous step down, and acquiring a true #1C will always require a massive loss or a massive tank. This trade will create holes in line-up due to cap casualty, and probably force a rebuild later 2020s, but I'm ready for a damn cup. Are you? But that being said, the Blues have LW depth, Defensive depth, and the ability to move Shattenkirk at the deadline to adjust 5 year plan, so this is not like a doomsday fleecing of talent.

Bottom line is, we have a great talent in his prime who is on a team that is struggling and we have a team that has some great pieces which can be moved so a cup can be considered short term.

Ok, destroy me.

:shakehead:shakehead:shakehead:shakehead:shakehead

Nobody is going to give you 5 first rounders(Pietrangelo) regardless if the JT is coming back, plus he is not signed past next season. Second, he will likely want 10.5-11 million per.

GM of STL falls off his chair laughing at this proposal!
 

Beninnola

Registered User
Mar 29, 2012
103
0
Oh my god that is the worst proposal in the history of this site

Considering Doug Armstrong actually did this:


"The rebuilding Sabres sent No. 1 goalie Ryan Miller and captain Steve Ott to the Stanley Cup hopeful Blues in exchange for goalie Jaroslav Halak, forward Chris Stewart, prospect William Carrier, a 2015 first-round pick and a 2016 fourth-round pick."

I hardly think the above proposal is as bad as you claim :P, especially when you look at the contracts involved.
 

bleedblue1223

Registered User
Jan 21, 2011
51,758
14,663
Considering Doug Armstrong actually did this:


"The rebuilding Sabres sent No. 1 goalie Ryan Miller and captain Steve Ott to the Stanley Cup hopeful Blues in exchange for goalie Jaroslav Halak, forward Chris Stewart, prospect William Carrier, a 2015 first-round pick and a 2016 fourth-round pick."

I hardly think the above proposal is as bad as you claim :P, especially when you look at the contracts involved.

How is any of that comparable?

It's even worse when contracts are factored in.
 

LetsGoBooze

Buium or bust
Jan 16, 2012
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I wouldn't even give up Pietrangelo and Schwartz for Tavares, let alone all the prospects and picks.... lol
 

KirkOut

EveryoneOut
Nov 23, 2012
14,548
3,757
USA
Considering Doug Armstrong actually did this:


"The rebuilding Sabres sent No. 1 goalie Ryan Miller and captain Steve Ott to the Stanley Cup hopeful Blues in exchange for goalie Jaroslav Halak, forward Chris Stewart, prospect William Carrier, a 2015 first-round pick and a 2016 fourth-round pick."

I hardly think the above proposal is as bad as you claim :P, especially when you look at the contracts involved.

um. what? this is not related to anything. John Tavares doesn't even have a contract after next year. Why would he sign with us? He will be able to get much more from somebody other than STL
 

Spektre

Registered User
Apr 10, 2010
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6,433
Krynn
JT is an elite center but way too much leaving the Blues.

The funniest reply so far is declining the offer saying Leddy is underrated. JT & Pie are both franchise players. Leddy is good but his name and franchise would never be in the same sentence other than this one.

It's too lopsided in the Isles favor. To make this trade a true franchise killer watch JT walk after next year.
 

Beninnola

Registered User
Mar 29, 2012
103
0
I'm sticking with my guns.

In valuation, I prefer to simplify everything with Point Shares. I'm a baseball guy and the concept of Point Shares matches well with a similar baseball stat. There are problems with all stats, but Point Shares attempt to combine offensive and defensive contribution simplifies a multiple player comparison. It dulls the difference between offensive and defensive excellence as it combines both, allowing comparison between apples and oranges.

By selecting each player's highest point share total from the past 3 years (due to the fact that it is a cumulative stat and opting for the highest of 3 dulls the impact of injury as well as shows current cieling):

Tavares: 11.2
Leddy: 7.7

Pietrangelo: 8.4
Schwartz: 8.4

For reference, Tarasenkos lowest PS is 10.8 and is on pace to hit 13-14 this season
Drew Doughty hit 11.6 last year
Brett Burns hit 12.6
Genos three year high is 9.1
Toews three year high is 9.4, same with Duncan Kieth
Kane hit 15 last year

To acquire a 10+ Point Share player is near impossible. You either have to get absurdly lucky, battle tons of teams in free agency and ruin any PS/$ ratio, or tank.

Despite simplicity, and without investing the time to explode out other stats, The above clearly shows more would be needed to equalize value and incentivize trade in moving Tavares to STL.

Another way to put this proposal you all hate:

I can name 10 defenseman better than Alex Pietrangelo.
I can name 10 Wingers better than Jaden Schwartz

I can only name 4 Centers better than Tavares.

Tarasenko is only getting older.

Acquiring a true top echelon center will be absurdly expensive. Name a cup winner without in the past decade. Having one seems to work. Sidney Crosby, Johnathan Toews, Anne Kopitar.

You aren't going to get there with Jori Lehtera, and I'm willing to say I don't care about 2024 for a chance now.

Edit: Prospects are a funny thing.

Given the Blues draft position for Dunn, Thompson, 2017 and 2018 1sts it is conservative to say you're looking at BEST a 70% chance at 100 NHL games and 50% chance at a top 6/top 4 caliber talent. That is mega conservative given draft position.

Doing that math takes 1 out of 4 prospects away as not even hitting 100 NHL games, and 1.5 of the remaining 3 as not talented enough to perform top6/4. That leaves roughly 1 and a half prospects worth out of the 4 as having a chance to have substantial impact in NHL action. Oh and you have to wait 3+ years.
 
Last edited:

Evocable Manager

Registered User
Apr 20, 2016
3,837
883
St. Louis
The difference between Petro/Schwartz and Tavares/Leddy isn't near all that. I'd be willing to throw one of Kyrou/Barbashev/Thompson/Dunn/Walman and a 1st if JT states he would resign and the Isles take Lehtera off our hands.

JT is a fantastic player, but 1.5 years of him isn't worth the future of the Blues. Absolutely no guarantee we win a cup. Especially with the tire fire goaltending we have. It's also important to note Shattenkirk probably wouldn't extend here given all the crap he's taken, so we lose Shattenkirk, Schwartz, Pietrangelo, and some valuable futures for 1.5 years of Tavares and Leddy?

In order for this to work, Isles take Lehtera, JT agrees to an extension (signed July 1st) and Shattenkirk would have to agree to an extension and the price would very well need to be lower. One prospect and one first.
 

simon IC

Moderator
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Sep 8, 2007
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I'm sticking with my guns.

In valuation, I prefer to simplify everything with Point Shares. I'm a baseball guy and the concept of Point Shares matches well with a similar baseball stat. There are problems with all stats, but Point Shares attempt to combine offensive and defensive contribution simplifies a multiple player comparison. It dulls the difference between offensive and defensive excellence as it combines both, allowing comparison between apples and oranges.

By selecting each player's highest point share total from the past 3 years (due to the fact that it is a cumulative stat and opting for the highest of 3 dulls the impact of injury as well as shows current cieling):

Tavares: 11.2
Leddy: 7.7

Pietrangelo: 8.4
Schwartz: 8.4

For reference, Tarasenkos lowest PS is 10.8 and is on pace to hit 13-14 this season
Drew Doughty hit 11.6 last year
Brett Burns hit 12.6
Genos three year high is 9.1
Toews three year high is 9.4, same with Duncan Kieth
Kane hit 15 last year

To acquire a 10+ Point Share player is near impossible. You either have to get absurdly lucky, battle tons of teams in free agency and ruin any PS/$ ratio, or tank.

Despite simplicity, and without investing the time to explode out other stats, The above clearly shows more would be needed to equalize value and incentivize trade in moving Tavares to STL.

Another way to put this proposal you all hate:

I can name 10 defenseman better than Alex Pietrangelo.
I can name 10 Wingers better than Jaden Schwartz

I can only name 4 Centers better than Tavares.

Tarasenko is only getting older.

Acquiring a true top echelon center will be absurdly expensive. Name a cup winner without in the past decade. Having one seems to work. Sidney Crosby, Johnathan Toews, Anne Kopitar.

You aren't going to get there with Jori Lehtera, and I'm willing to say I don't care about 2024 for a chance now.

Edit: Prospects are a funny thing.

Given the Blues draft position for Dunn, Thompson, 2017 and 2018 1sts it is conservative to say you're looking at BEST a 70% chance at 100 NHL games and 50% chance at a top 6/top 4 caliber talent. That is mega conservative given draft position.

Doing that math takes 1 out of 4 prospects away as not even hitting 100 NHL games, and 1.5 of the remaining 3 as not talented enough to perform top6/4. That leaves roughly 1 and a half prospects worth out of the 4 as having a chance to have substantial impact in NHL action. Oh and you have to wait 3+ years.
What? Alex Pietrangelo is easily a top five NHL defenseman.
 

simon IC

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The difference between Petro/Schwartz and Tavares/Leddy isn't near all that. I'd be willing to throw one of Kyrou/Barbashev/Thompson/Dunn/Walman and a 1st if JT states he would resign and the Isles take Lehtera off our hands.

JT is a fantastic player, but 1.5 years of him isn't worth the future of the Blues. Absolutely no guarantee we win a cup. Especially with the tire fire goaltending we have. It's also important to note Shattenkirk probably wouldn't extend here given all the crap he's taken, so we lose Shattenkirk, Schwartz, Pietrangelo, and some valuable futures for 1.5 years of Tavares and Leddy?

In order for this to work, Isles take Lehtera, JT agrees to an extension (signed July 1st) and Shattenkirk would have to agree to an extension and the price would very well need to be lower. One prospect and one first.
I wouldn't even do that. I think you grossly undervaluing Pietrangelo, and somewhat overvaluing Shattenkirk.
 

Chubbinz

Registered User
Nov 1, 2016
333
242
Honest question when has a player with 1.5 years left on their contract before becoming a UFA pulled this sort of package in a trade?
 
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