Confirmed Signing with Link: [STL] Blues extend Brayden Schenn (8 years, $6.5M AAV)

Caldercanucks

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The UFA C market is shaping up to be trash. Backstrom is going to end up re-signing in Washington, in all likelihood. Schenn would have been the best available. He was looking at Kevin Hayes+ money. The Blues gave him max term to keep the cap hit down. It's something you have to do when you're trying to win it all.
I thought long term usually meant higher avv or is that for RFAs? Either way not huge money for a good 2-way centre. This imo, kind of makes the Hayes deal even more of a head-scratcher. Does this and the Faulk trade mean they don't anticipate signing AP? BTW Blues fans that cup ceremony was well done. I hope the Nucks get to pop their cherry soon.
 

KingsFan7824

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Wow...that is not good. Ever since winning the cup Armstrong developed the Bowman/Chiarelli/rutherford disease. Idk what's up with these GMs who just won a cup making moves that actively make your team weaker in the long term. This Deal coupled with the Faulk deal is a major concern going forward. I especially don't see the need for this when Thomas is your long term C.

It's tough to win in the NHL, and when you find a winning formula, you're almost forced to stick with it. You have to strike while that iron is hot. Try to win as many Cups in as short amount of time as you can, because the years go quickly, and before you know it your window closes. Usually happens before you think it will. Or, never really opens completely; just ask Winnipeg. Once you win the Cup, you kind of don't care about the future anymore. Make too many changes, and don't win, and you're out. Stick with what you've done, and don't win, you can always say well we won before, just wait. If you don't win too long after that though, you're out, so either way.

GMs are in a tough spot. The Cup scenario. With UFA's. You don't want to spend stupid money on UFA's, because most of them aren't worth it. However, they're free assets. Your job is to find talent. With the cap, you also have to spend a certain amount every year. If you've been smart with your previous contracts, you should have plenty of remaining space to add to. Can't have 30 guys on a roster. You almost end up having to waste money on UFA's. Part of the business.
 
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Em etah Eh

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Happy for Schenn. Loved him on the flyers, and was stupidly given up on

I think the Flyers are much better off where they are now then where they would have been with keeping Schenn and re-signing him to a similar deal to this. They got some real nice futures and I really don't think Schenn changes much the past two seasons for the Flyers. Still seems like a win-win trade.
 

Em etah Eh

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Imagine being so salty that another poster defends a contract that your team signed and you still try to take petty shots like this. :laugh:

Stay on the topic of the thread. PM another poster if you want to make something personal.



Based on what, points? Because Hayes was a much better, more impactful two-way player then Schenn in Schenn’s average season. They’re pretty close players, in my view. But Schenn is signed from ages 29-36, where as Hayes is signed from ages 27-33.

So from a sharks point of view if you could have either during the sharks window, which one do you take?
 

justafan22

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Jun 22, 2014
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The UFA C market is shaping up to be trash. Backstrom is going to end up re-signing in Washington, in all likelihood. Schenn would have been the best available. He was looking at Kevin Hayes+ money. The Blues gave him max term to keep the cap hit down. It's something you have to do when you're trying to win it all.

Granlund, Haula and Pageau are the 3 best Cs.

Granlund will get 6+ million, but Haula/Pageau are likely stuck in the mid 3s.
 

StreetHawk

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Sep 30, 2017
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I thought long term usually meant higher avv or is that for RFAs? Either way not huge money for a good 2-way centre. This imo, kind of makes the Hayes deal even more of a head-scratcher. Does this and the Faulk trade mean they don't anticipate signing AP? BTW Blues fans that cup ceremony was well done. I hope the Nucks get to pop their cherry soon.
Well with Hayes he is 27 on a 7 year deal expires when he turns 34. Schenn will be 29 at the start and ends when he turns 37 as it’s an 8 year deal.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

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So from a sharks point of view if you could have either during the sharks window, which one do you take?

If I had the choice I would take neither, and I wouldn’t have added Kane either. But between Hayes and Schenn, I’d take Hayes. I think he’s probably the better player right now but more importantly, his contract has 2 fewer years on it. Schenn’s physicality makes him an endearing player for sure but I would expect a gentle giant like Hayes to age better than Schenn.
 

Caldercanucks

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Well with Hayes he is 27 on a 7 year deal expires when he turns 34. Schenn will be 29 at the start and ends when he turns 37 as it’s an 8 year deal.
Fair point It makes sense what you said when I think about it. This will be his last contract so he takes less for a year or 2 extra term. Cheers.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

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How much better Kevin Hayes deal is than Schenn's?

Just a little bit better, in my opinion.

I almost edited my question to say "if you had to take one, and could replace Kane with one if you wanted" but you pretty much answered the question in the way that I initially intended to ask it. Thanks

To add, I would probably keep Kane over both players simply because he has the fewest years left on his deal, but if you gave me the opportunity to swap Kane and Hayes right now it’s something that I would think about.

This isn’t me shitting on Schenn either, he’s a very good player, but Hayes is pretty underrated around here and aging curves from ages 29 through 36 aren’t something I ever want to bet on.
 

Thallis

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Wait. And. See.

The best strategy is to do what Boston did with Lucic (and what you guys did with Shattenkirk) and get the hell out and away from long-term contracts to non-elite 30+ guys and use that money and those roster spots more wisely to keep turning things over to compete.

This hasn't worked well at all for Chicago. Everything went to hell for them when the long-term contracts to Kane and Toews kicked in immediately after their 2015 Cup win, and then in the fall of 2015 they gave basically the exact same deal Schenn is getting to Brent Seabrook, and that contract has been a complete donkey from day 1. And they've been in non-competitive cap hell and have won a grand total of 3 playoff games since. Same with LA coming off their 2014 win and the dumb contracts that came out of that - 1 playoff game won in 5 years since. And St. Louis is falling into the same trap.

If you read my post, I don't expect to sustain a cup window even throughout this contract. I just don't think there's another option that gives a greater chance of more cups. You can say "look at boston" all you want, but they signed Krecji, Marchand, Bergeron, and Chara long term too (neither Krecji nor Marchand were considered elite when those deals were signed as well, Krecji has just been very durable and Marchand has gotten better since his career year before signing that deal), it's just worked out very well for them because none of those guys have experienced these huge drop offs that everyone is assuming will happen. It's certainly possible that he drops off in 4 years and Blues are stuck with an aging roster, but the Blues are obviously willing to deal with it because as I said before: The prospect pool is pedestrian as hell, and any amount of retooling will be rough unless we can luck our way into a legitimate #1 D to replace Pietrangelo along the way. The Faulk deal followed by this is a signal that Armstrong wants to go for it as long as he can then commit to a full rebuild when the core tails off. Schenn is at the level that you can't just replace via Free Agency, and once he starts declining, Thomas can swap spots with him in the lineup. Schenn could have easily gotten $7.5-8 if he wanted to test the market, but Armstrong gave him term instead.
 
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GeeoffBrown

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It is not a good contract however it's not Skinner bad. Schenn will not be good in 3 to 4 years but the blues might not be either, it's actually probable that they have bottomed out by then. It's been since 06 since they bottomed out and I would think as their stars age out in the next few years they will be in that not good enough but not bad enough stage where they start tanking. Schenn could be useful then to mentor and make the cap floor. Me personally I would have let him walk. I'd also let Petro walk, enjoy the cup and start selling everything off if they don't win this year. They're fans won't kill them because they climbed the mountain. Some folks stay on Everest for an hour and some only a few min. Nothing wrong with either as the top is the top.
I dunno. The Blues are a team that are usually pretty good. According to Wikipedia, they've only missed the playoffs 9 times ever.
 
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67Blues

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I thought long term usually meant higher avv or is that for RFAs? Either way not huge money for a good 2-way centre. This imo, kind of makes the Hayes deal even more of a head-scratcher. Does this and the Faulk trade mean they don't anticipate signing AP? BTW Blues fans that cup ceremony was well done. I hope the Nucks get to pop their cherry soon.
RFAs price term higher because you are buying out their best years as a player without letting them shop for the best money. Thus, the team will have to pay more to buy those out. For a UFA, they like term because of stability and it could be their last contract (depending on age) and will give up value for longer term. RFA and UFA are opposite in terms of the players viewpoint.
 

BleedBlue14

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If I had the choice I would take neither, and I wouldn’t have added Kane either. But between Hayes and Schenn, I’d take Hayes. I think he’s probably the better player right now but more importantly, his contract has 2 fewer years on it. Schenn’s physicality makes him an endearing player for sure but I would expect a gentle giant like Hayes to age better than Schenn.

While I agree this contract will be pretty rough towards the end I feel it will put us in a similar spot to where Steen is currently at. He will be very overpaid the last couple years of the deal, however he will be a core player for 5 or so years.

I agree Hayes will probably age better. However, I dont know how Hayes is considered a better player. Hayes best year in the past 4 seasons is worse or on par with Schenn's worst season point wise. I admit i am not looking at linemattes or usage.

I dont know what measurement you are using in regards to saying Hayes is a better player at the moment, nor am I trying to unproductively listen to your side. I just seriously am confused what measurements lead you to your conclusion.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

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While I agree this contract will be pretty rough towards the end I feel it will put us in a similar spot to where Steen is currently at. He will be very overpaid the last couple years of the deal, however he will be a core player for 5 or so years.

I agree Hayes will probably age better. However, I dont know how Hayes is considered a better player. Hayes best year in the past 4 seasons is worse or on par with Schenn's worst season point wise. I admit i am not looking at linemattes or usage.

I dont know what measurement you are using in regards to saying Hayes is a better player at the moment, nor am I trying to unproductively listen to your side. I just seriously am confused what measurements lead you to your conclusion.

The measurements that I’m looking at are more in terms of play-driving and defensive metrics, such as Evolving Hockey’s RAPM and GAR, Micah McCurdy’s isolated impact, CF%, xGF%, etc. Hayes had some pretty insane underlying metrics last year. They’re close enough offensively to where Hayes’ superior defense takes the cake for me.
 

Mike Liut

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I dunno. The Blues are a team that are usually pretty good. According to Wikipedia, they've only missed the playoffs 9 times ever.


And a few of them are because a previous owner thought it would be smart to sell off Pronger and a few others for peanuts prior to selling the team.
 

BrindamoursNose

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I think the Flyers are much better off where they are now then where they would have been with keeping Schenn and re-signing him to a similar deal to this. They got some real nice futures and I really don't think Schenn changes much the past two seasons for the Flyers. Still seems like a win-win trade.

Bingo
 

Caldercanucks

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RFAs price term higher because you are buying out their best years as a player without letting them shop for the best money. Thus, the team will have to pay more to buy those out. For a UFA, they like term because of stability and it could be their last contract (depending on age) and will give up value for longer term. RFA and UFA are opposite in terms of the players viewpoint.
ya I thought after I posted and that makes a ton of sense. I like when a GM is willing to treat a player well for being basically a lifer on the team. I get chills every time I watch last night's cup ceremony, excuse my ignorance, but is the song, Gloria to do with old glory? During the ceremony, the camera caught a little boy just transfixed on the show tears on his face. Gave me chills.
 
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JetsFan815

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Risky contract considering he will be 29 when this contract kicks in. If I was GMDA I would've preferred to give in on the AAV a bit for a shorter term.
 
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Stopsight

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Long deal and back half will likely be bad, but a lot of shit happens in 5 years. For the near future it is our 2C locked up for 6.5 mil, pretty damn good.
 

rumrokh

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Risky contract considering he will be 29 when this contract kicks in. If I was GMDA I would've preferred to give in on the AAV a bit for a shorter term.

The lower cap hit gives them more space to sign other guys, namely Pietrangelo. Look beyond the individual, theoretical value and toward the context of the team. No contract is signed in a vacuum.

Schenn's statistical impact is of a high-end second line or low-end first line center. Duchene is the same tier of player and production and signed at 8x7, yet the Schenn deal seems to be receiving a lot more criticism. People either don't know how good Schenn is or are unduly obsessed with the minigame of contract efficiency and are unconcerned with winning.
 
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